UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT

For: 2024-05-06

May 06, 2024

Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 60 sources daily, much of which forms the basis of the script. While the Podcast is on hiatus I will make this Draft available here both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.

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ALONG THE CONTACT LINE

GSAFU Morning Report

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its situation update at 06:00 on May 6 stated that it was day 803 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.

During the past day, 125 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 2 missile strikes, 120 air strikes, and 89 MLRS attacks across the positions of our troops and settlements. As a result of the Russian attacks, unfortunately, there are dead and wounded among the civilian population. Destruction and damage to residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure.

At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line.

More than 120 settlements in Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, and Mykolaiv oblasts came under enemy fire.

Ukrainian missile forces struck 1 concentration of troops, 3 radar stations, 2 air defense systems, 2 artillery systems, and 3 other important targets.

Russia reportedly redeploys some forces to the Berlgorod region

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in their May 5 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reports. The Russian military reportedly redeployed a battalion of the 76th Airborne (VDV) Division to Kursk Oblast as part of a larger ongoing Russian effort to gather an operationally significant force for a possible future Russian offensive operation against northeastern Ukraine and Kharkiv City

Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets stated on May 5 that the Russian military has gathered roughly 50,000 personnel in Belgorod, Kursk, and Bryansk oblasts as part of its Northern Grouping of Forces. Mashovets stated that the Russian military has concentrated over 31,000 troops in Belgorod Oblast; over 10,000 troops in Kursk Oblast; and over 8,000 troops in Bryansk Oblast.[2] Mashovets noted that an unspecified VDV battalion is part of the Russian grouping in Kursk Oblast, and a Russian milblogger, who has an avowed bias against the VDV and “Dnepr” Grouping of Forces Commander Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky, claimed on May 5 that the Russian 104th VDV Regiment’s (76th VDV Division) 3rd VDV battalion is currently in Kursk Oblast.

ISW recently observed unconfirmed reports that the Russian military is redeploying elements of the 76th and 7th VDV divisions from Zaporizhia Oblast to various new directions, including eastern Ukraine, but has not observed visual confirmation that elements of the 104th VDV Regiment are operating in Kursk Oblast.

The Russian military is reportedly preparing and forming the Northern Grouping of Forces from elements of the Leningrad Military District (LMD) to primarily operate in the Belgorod-Kharkiv operational direction. Ukrainian officials have increasingly warned about the threat of a possible future Russian offensive operation to seize Kharkiv City.

ISW continues to assess that the Russian military lacks the forces necessary to seize the city but that Russian offensive operations against Kharkiv or Sumy cities would draw and fix Ukrainian forces from other, more critical parts of the frontline.

Grumpy Here — It is important to note that the VDV’s once fearsome reputation is now a thing of the past. Most military experts agree the VDV like all of Russia’s “elite” units have been degraded so badly through two years of forced suicidal frontal assaults that there are now no different than any other line unit in the Russian army, i.e. - poorly trained, poorly led, poorly equipped and poorly motivated.

Additionally I agree with ISW’s assessment that the Russian military would be unable to launch an offensive capable of capturing Sumy or Kharkiv, instead I think it is much more likely the purpose of this announcement is to attempt to tie up additional Ukrainian troops in the region that could be more effective elsewhere and to discourage Russian dissident militias from raiding into vulnerable border areas in Russia.

Defence forces destroyed 13 battalions of occupiers in a week

Ukraine's defence forces have destroyed 13 battalions worth of russian troops and equipment in the last week, according to data on Russian losses from April 29 to May 5 published Military Media Center.

That averages out to 940 personnel, 10 tanks, 24 IFVs and 34 artillery systems daily. One should keep in mind that adequate ammunition supplies only started reaching the Ukrainian front line in the past several days.

This equates to a total of five motorised infantry, two tank battalions and thirteen artillery batteries destroyed in this past week.

Air Force Daily Report

The Ukrainian Air Force in its situation update at 06:00 stated that during the previous day they launched air strikes on 13 concentrations of troops and 4 anti-aircraft missile systems

On the night of May 6, Russian occupiers attacked from the northern direction 13 Shahed UAVs launched from the Kursk region (Russia).

As a result of combat work by mobile fire groups of the Defense Forces of Ukraine destroyed 12 enemy Shaheds in Sumy region.

The Khortytsia operational-strategic group

(Responsible for the Kupyansk, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine. )

Kupyansk axis: Ukrainian troops repelled 14 attacks in the vicinities of Synkivka, Pishchane, Berestove, (Kharkiv oblast), and Stelmakhivka (Luhansk oblast). Where the occupiers, with air support, attempted to breach Ukrainian defensive lines.

Lyman axis: The enemy launched 6 attacks on the positions of Ukrainian defenders in the vicinities of Nevs’ke (Luhansk oblast), plus Novosadove and Tors’ke (Donetsk oblast). Where, supported by aviation, they attempted to breach Ukrainian defensive lines.

Bakhmut axis: Ukrainian troops repelled 36 attacks in the vicinities of Bilohorivka (Luhansk oblast), Verkhnokamyanske, Spirne, Vyimka, Rozdolivka, Novyi, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka and Andriivka (Donetsk oblast). Where, with air support, the invaders attempted to improve their tactical position in that area.

Ukrainian counterattack disrupts Russian offensive near Bakhmut

Ukrainian forces conducted a series of attacks south of Ivanivske, successfully disrupting Russian efforts to push forward their offensive near Bakhmut states Euromaidan’s Frontline Report

According to both Russian and Ukrainian sources, the attacks were successful and later the Ukrainian fighters of the 92nd assault Brigade published combat footage showing the actual operation.

Ukrainians made extensive use of FPV drones to the fullest extent, which allowed them to retake the initiative and conduct the counterattack.

The activity of FPV drones was so severe that all Russian troops were hiding in dugouts or basements in the settlements along the contact line. Any Russian troops or equipment exposed on the outside were quickly detected and destroyed before they even reached the contact line. In many videos of such disruptions of reinforcements, we could see the destruction of four supply trucks, a bmp2 infantry Fighting Vehicle, a bmd4, and many groups of infantry on foot.

However, the provided combat footage shows only a fraction of a broader operation pushing Russians back by more than 500 metres. Ukrainians had previously detected that Russian defences here were weaker than the rest of the Southern flank but still potent. This defence stretched along two tree lines on open fields near a dirt road that supplied Ivanivske.

Furthermore, Ukrainians also managed to fix Russian forces in this front section to prevent further potential breakthroughs. Redeployment of additional troops to plug the gap near the tactical bridge head will in turn reduce the intensity of Russian assaults on Chasiv Yar.

The Tavria operational-strategic group

(Responsible for the Avdiivka, Novopavlivka, and Orikhiv axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)

Avdiivka axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 31 attacks in the vicinities of Novooleksandrivka, Novopokrovske, Umanske, Yasnobrodivka and Netailove (Donetsk oblast). Where, with the air support, the invaders attempted to dislodge Ukrainian troops from their positions.

Novopavlivka axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the enemy in the vicinities of Krasnohorivka,, Kostyantynivka and Vodyane (Donetsk oblast).Where,with the air support, the invaders made 27 attempts to breach Ukrainian defences in that area.

Orikhiv axis: The enemy conducted 6 attacks, with air support, on positions of Ukrainian defenders in the vicinities of Staromaiors’ke (Donetsk oblast), Robotyne (Zaporizhzhia oblast).

The Odesa operational-strategic group

(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)

Kherson axis: Ukrainian defenders continue to maintain their positions. Over the past day, the enemy carried out 3 unsuccessful assaults on the bridgeheads of the Ukrainian Defence Forces on the left bank of the Dnipro River attempting to dislodge them from their positions.

Military Intelligence destroys Russian High Speed Boat in Qirim

As a result of the operation of the Group 13 unit of the Main Intelligence Agency of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, (HUR) a Magura V5 attack naval drone destroyed a high-speed boat of the Russian invaders. Interfax Ukraine reports.

As reported on the Agency's website, the successful mission in Uzkaya Bay in Chornomorske on the territory of temporarily occupied Qirim was made possible with the assistance of the United24 platform.

"As fear of Ukrainian attacks forces the occupiers to hide large ships of the Black Sea Fleet away from the peninsula, combat work continues on high-speed manoeuvrable Russian military vessels that are illegal in the Ukrainian territorial waters of Crimea," the statement said.

HUR stated, with the help of Magura V5 maritime attack drones, the Russian ships Caesar Kunikov, Ivanovets, Sergei Kotov, Akula and Serna have already been destroyed, and the Ivan Khurs has also been damaged.

TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES

Nothing to report.

THE HOME FRONT

Russia hits central Kharkiv with three gliding bombs, injuring at least ten civilians

Russia has bombarded Kharkiv again on May 5 with three aerial bombs, injuring at least 10 civilians. The city is continuously targeted since 2022. Yesterday’s attack targeted residential areas in the Shevchenkivskyi district. Euromaidan reports.

Kharkiv mayor, Ihor Terekhov, noted that the central part of the city, particularly a residential district, was struck. Kharkiv Oblast chief Oleh Syniehubov specified that the Shevchenkivskyi district of Kharkiv was hit, resulting in damage to civilian infrastructure.

Syniehubov later reported that Russian forces launched three KAB gliding bomb strikes on the center of Kharkiv, causing significant damage to over 15 multi-story residential buildings, private homes, vehicles, a defunct sports complex, and office buildings. He noted that among the 10 casualties, one woman is in critical condition; her identity is still being confirmed.

RUSSIAN WORLD

Germany temporarily withdraws ambassador from russia due to a series of cyberattacks russia

Germany has recalled its ambassador from russia for consultations amid Berlin's accusations of russian involvement in cyberattacks on defence and aerospace companies and the ruling party. Reuters reports this with reference to a statement by a spokesperson for the German Foreign Ministry, UNN reports.

German Ambassador Alexander Graf Lambsdorf will stay in Berlin for a week and then return to Moscow.

The ambassador was recalled as Germany completed an investigation into last year's cyberattack on the SPD server. Berlin said that the attack was carried out by the russian-backed hacker group APT28.

In this regard, Germany summoned the russian ambassador to the Foreign Ministry.

The Financial Times reported that European intelligence agencies have warned their governments that russia is preparing a series of sabotage attacks on the continent. These include explosions, arson, and attacks on infrastructure.

Russia to conduct tactical nuclear weapons exercises due to Western 'provocations'

According to the directive of the dictator Vladimir Putin, the Russian military will conduct exercises with tactical nuclear weapons, citing the Ministry of Defense of Russia. RBC-Ukraine reports.

In the near future, the Russian army will carry out a series of activities to practise preparation and use of non-strategic nuclear weapons.

As noted by the Ministry of Defense, the exercises will be conducted "in response to provocative statements and threats from certain Western officials towards Russia."

Grumpy Here — This is just the latest in infantile Russian threats towards the west collectively or targeting individual countries whenever things begin to go badly for them. Putin really thought that they could force Europe and the US into abandoning Ukraine [which was a real possibility due to Republican collusion and the Biden administration’s muddled priorities] allowing Russia to negotiate a temporary ceasefire while they rearmed and re equipped before renewing their attacks on Ukraine.

Now that their plan has failed and the west has reiterated their support for Ukraine, Russia, rapidly running out of options reacts hysterically and the 793rd time since the start of the full scale invasion threatens nuclear war.

NEWS WORLDWIDE

Europe should reinforce Ukraine’s air defence from existing stockpiles - Scholz

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has called on European countries to strengthen Ukraine’s air defence using existing resources, without waiting for new systems to be manufactured. Censor.NET reported with reference to Bild.

The head of the German government reminded that Berlin would give Ukraine the promised third Patriot air defence system from its stocks. He called on other countries to join in and provide Ukraine with supplies from their existing stockpiles. Scholz noted that ‘we cannot wait for new systems to be produced’.

‘We must provide Ukraine with more air defence capabilities from existing stocks,’ the German Chancellor said.

Earlier, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock stressed the importance of joining forces to find additional air defence systems for Ukraine. The politician noted that each additional air defence system saves lives in Ukraine.

Grumpy here — I would like to remind you that the USA has still only supplied Ukraine with ONE patriot battery

MILITARY & TECH