UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-02-29
Slava Ukraini! Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 40 sources daily much of which ends up in the script. I will make this Draft available here for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its situation update at 06:00 on Feb. 29 stated that it was day 736 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
During the past day, 99 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 10 missile strikes, 105 air strikes, and 163 MLRS attacks across the positions of our troops and settlements. As a result of the Russian attacks, unfortunately, there are dead and wounded among the civilian population. Destruction and damage to residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line.
The Ukrainian Air Force launched air strikes on 8 concentrations of enemy troops.
Ukrainian missile troops hit 1 command post, 2 concentrations of troops, weapons, and military equipment, 4 artillery systems, 1 air defence system, 1 electronic warfare station and 1 other important target of the russian invaders.
Ukraine's Defence Forces shoot down 3 more Russian Su-34 jets on Feb. 29
Early on the morning of 29 February, Ukraine’s Air Force Commander reported that the defenders destroyed a Russian Su-34 fighter-bomber on the eastern front.
Shortly afterwards Lieutenant General Mykola Oleshchuk, Ukraine’s Air Force Commander reported on Telegram that at approximately 09:00 two more SU-34s were shot down near Avdiivka and Mariupol
"It seems they don't get it! Russian pilots are not drawing any conclusions!” The General wrote
This makes a total of 13 Russian aircraft shot down during the month of February.
Russian Air Force is being quickly decimated in Ukraine
The Ukrainian air force claimed it has shot down 10 Russian warplanes in 10 days: nine of the Russian air force’s best Sukhoi Su-34 and Sukhoi Su-35 fighter-bombers and also a rare Beriev A-50 radar plane David Axe of Forbes wrote.
This article was published on Feb. 27 Ukraine has since shot down three more SU-34’s on the morning of Feb. 29.
This is many, many more warplanes than the Russians can afford to lose in a little more than a week. Hamstrung by foreign sanctions, the Russian aerospace industry is struggling to produce more than a couple of dozen new warplanes a year.
All that is to say, the Russians are losing jets 20 times faster than they can replace them.
How the Ukrainians are shooting down so many jets is unclear. It’s possible the Ukrainian air force has assigned some of its American-made Patriot missile launchers to mobile air-defence groups that move quickly in close proximity to the 600-mile front line of Russia’s two-year wider war on Ukraine, ambushing Russian jets with 90-mile-range PAC-2 missiles then swiftly relocating to avoid counterattack.
But the distance at which the Ukrainians shot down that A-50 on Friday—120 miles or so—hints that a longer-range missile system was involved. Perhaps a Cold War-vintage S-200 that the Ukrainian air force pulled out of long-term storage.
It also is apparent the Ukrainians have moved some of their two-dozen or so 25-mile-range NASAMS surface-to-air missile batteries closer to the front line. After all, the Russians found—and destroyed with a missile—their first NASAMS launcher near the southern city of Zaporizhzhia on or before Monday.
That actual answer to Ukraine’s air-defence hot streak might be that it’s deploying all the above systems, plus others, in more aggressive ways. If there’s a risk in this approach, it’s that the Patriot and NASAMS batteries fire U.S.-made missiles, and the United States hasn’t provided any ammunition to Ukraine since late December, shortly after Russia-aligned Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives blocked a vote on further aid.
In other words, Ukraine eventually—possibly soon—will run out of its best air-defence missiles.
It helps the Ukrainian effort that Russian pilots are increasingly blind to Ukrainian missile-launches. The Russian air force once counted on its nine or so active A-50 radar planes—organised into three, three-plane “orbits” in the south, east and north—to extend sensor coverage across Ukraine.
In damaging one A-50 in a drone strike last year and shooting down two more A-50s this year, the Ukrainians have eliminated a third of this sensor coverage, and created blind spots where Russian pilots might struggle to spot approaching missiles.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kup’yans’k axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 2 attacks of the enemy near the settlements Syn.kivka and Tabaivka(Kharkiv oblast)
Lyman axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 12 attacks near Terny, Yampolivka (Donetsk oblast) and Bilhorivka (Luhansk oblast)
Bakhmut axis: Ukrainian forces repelled 9 attacks near Ivanivske and Klishchiivka (Donetsk oblast)
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the Avdiivka, Mar’inka, Shaktars’ke, and Zaporizhzhia axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Avdiivka axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 25 enemy attacks near Berdychi, Orlivka,Tonen’ke, Pervomais’ke and Nevel’s’ke (Donetsk oblast).
Mar’inka axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the occupiers in the vicinities of Krasnohorivka Heorhiivka, and Novomvahkilivka (Donetsk oblast). Troops repelled 28 attacks in that area.
Ukrainian forces push Russian occupiers out of Krasnohorivka
The 3rd Separate Assault Brigade pushed Russian occupiers out of Krasnohorivka in the Donetsk oblast, according to a statement by the unit.
On the previous day, Russian forces attacked the southeastern part of Krasnohorivka and entered the city, the 3rd Assault Brigade stated.
"To prevent the enemy from establishing a foothold, units of the Third Separate Assault Brigade, fighters of the 1st and 2nd Assault Battalions, conducted a combat operation to clear the city of enemy forces," the brigade wrote.
The military notes that the occupiers managed to prepare for a prolonged defence in a short period, but despite resistance and heavy fighting, the assault groups of the 3rd Assault Brigade inflicted irreversible losses on Russia – about 100 occupiers killed and wounded.
The 3rd Assault Brigade reports that the Russians refused to surrender and were eliminated in the buildings they occupied. The city is now under the control of Ukrainian troops.
Shakhtarske axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 1 attack near Urozhaine, (Donetsk oblast)
Orikhiv axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 1 attack near Robotyne (Zaporizhzhia oblast).
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Kherson axis: Ukrainian defenders continue to expand the bridgehead. Despite significant losses, the enemy does not abandon its attempts to dislodge Ukrainian troops from their positions. Over the past day, the enemy carried out 4 unsuccessful assaults on the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces on the left bank of the Dnipro River.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Ukrainian Armed Forces target Russian cluster in Olenivka
The Armed Forces of Ukraine report that they identified a target of opportunity and launched a strike from multiple launch rocket systems targeting a cluster of Russian forces in the town of Olenivka, Donetsk Oblast. The attack resulted in the injury and death of several dozen Russians.
"Early reports on enemy losses from the strike: 19 dead Russian occupiers, including the deputy commander of the Russian military unit, and 12 wounded invaders, including the commander of that unit."
— GSAFU Report
THE HOME FRONT
Ukraine destroys 10 out of 10 Russian drones overnight on Feb. 28
Russia, overnight on Feb. 28 launched 10 Shahed strike UAVs from the Primorsko-Akhtarsk region of Russia, Ukraine’s Air Forces reported. Ukraine’s Air Defences shot down all 10 Russian Shahed drones over Odesa and Mykolaiv oblasts.
In Odesa, the falling wreckage of one of the downed drones caused a short circuit in the power grid of a critical infrastructure facility. The fire was extinguished. There were reportedly no casualties.
Budanov — Zaluzhnyi's dismissal not caused by personal rift with President Zelenskyy
Lt.-Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, Head of Ukraine's Defence Intelligence, during an interview with CBC has stated that he does not believe that Zaluzhnyi’s dismissal from the position of Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was the result of any bad blood between Valerii Zaluzhnyi and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. He also implied that Zelenskyy had made the right decision in replacing Zaluzhnyi.
"If everything is fine and dandy and things are going as well as they possibly could, then why are we in the situation we are in?"
Budanov was speaking the day after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told a news conference in Kyiv that 31,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed in fighting since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine two years ago.
Budanov was very defiant in his remarks to CBC saying Ukraine will not give up.
"The Russians would be very happy to freeze everything how it is now," when asked for some insight into current Russian thinking. "To have us recognize the territory they've taken as Russian. And they would celebrate their victory. It will never happen."
RUSSIAN WORLD
Political commissars introduced into Russian government agencies
Russian President Vladimir Putin has secretly introduced political commissars to Russian government agencies by a decree made in 2023 according to Meduza.
The published guidelines specify that the geopolitical situation and the war against Ukraine require government agencies to engage in practical and systematic work, including strengthening patriotism among employees.
"It is decreed the position of Deputy Head for Socio-Political Work is officially established in federal government agencies. The search for individuals to become political commissars is planned within these structures, primarily hiring among existing deputies. However, the candidacy must be approved by the Presidential Administration."
— Excerpt from the decree
To achieve this, measures are outlined to ensure the timely dissemination of information about the military-political situation in the country and the world, as well as conducting educational activities regarding the study of Russia's history, wars in which it took part and its development.
WORLD NEWS
Ukraine asks Australia for tanks, transport vehicles, new authorities
In an emotional presentation today in front of key Australian defense officials, the Ukrainian ambassador and the head of an organization representing Ukrainians across Australia appealed for tanks, Taipan helicopters, money and a change in how Australia considers Ukrainian aid.
“Yes, at this rate we can slowly keep going. But is that acceptable? For how many years should this war drag on?” Ukrainian ambassador Vasyl Myroshnychenko said at Canberra’s National Press Club, to an audience that included Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles, Shadow Defense Minister Andrew Hastie and national defense press. “We need more, more of everything. We need enough to end this war and to defeat Russia’s invasion. ‘Hanging on’ is not enough.”
Australia, when it decided to decommission its fleet of 43 Taipan helicopters after a fatal crash, was asked by Ukraine to donate the helicopters. Australia said instead it would strip them and bury them, arguing it was in the interests of the taxpayer and that no country had indicated it would buy them. In addition to the Taipans, Ukraine has made its interest in obtaining Australia’s aging Abrams tanks clear, with the ambassador reiterating the hope today they will get the country’s entire fleet of M1A1 tanks, which are due to be replaced.
Russian tank manufacturer bypasses sanctions with tech imports from Japan, Taiwan via China
A Russian arms manufacturer has been importing components essential for tank production from Japan and Taiwan, despite ongoing sanctions due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a Japanese Nikkei media outlet reported.
According to information obtained by Nikkei, a company connected to the Belarus government, an ally of Russia, was established in China after the invasion began in February 2022. This company has been facilitating the import of parts for the Russian arms maker, highlighting the ineffectiveness of sanctions targeting Russia’s munitions industry.
The data, provided by Belpol, a Belarus opposition organization, includes contracts and transaction records involving Russian, Belarusian, Chinese, and other companies. It reveals that Shenzhen 5G High-Tech Innovation, founded by a person linked to Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko’s government, procured precision instrument parts such as motors and sensors needed for weapons production.
Parts purchased by Shenzhen 5G include those made by Metrol, a manufacturer of precision positioning sensors in Tachikawa, Tokyo, Oriental Motor, a Tokyo-based maker of small precision motors, and a leading machine tool maker in Aichi prefecture. Shenzhen 5G is thought to have purchased parts in stock from other Chinese companies.
Shenzhen 5G has sent the parts to Belarusian arms maker SALEO and the LLC Laboratory of Additive Technologies. All these entities are under the control of Lukashenko's government. Sensor parts made by Metrol were exported to Saleo for 16,035 yuan ($2,228) per unit in May 2023, for example.
With U.S. and British authorities informed recently that Shenzhen 5G has been used to bypass sanctions, the company could be subject to restrictions soon. But as Russia is seen as certain to set up another dummy company in a third country, it will be extremely difficult to shut down all supply routes for restricted high-tech goods.
MILITARY & TECH
Netherlands orders 9 Czech howitzers to aid Ukraine
The Netherlands ordered 9 DITA self-propelled howitzers for Ukraine from two Czech arms manufacturers, the Netherlands Defense Ministry reported on 28 February. The DITA howitzer is a modern fire system that can hit targets tens of kilometres away. “Ukraine has a great need for this weapon,” according to the statement.
The Commander of the Armed Forces (CDS) of the Netherlands, General Onno Eichelsheim, reportedly visited Czech weapons manufacturers for Ukraine the day before.
Eichelsheim also reviewed the VERA-NG, a radar surveillance system detecting aerial, maritime, and ground targets. The CDS emphasised that supporting Ukraine remains “the highest priority for the Netherlands.”
Earlier, the Netherlands ordered 100 MR-2 anti-aircraft installations from the Czech Republic, as well as, together with the US and Denmark, 100 modernised T-72 tanks.
After the equipment passes testing, it will go directly to Ukraine.
That’s it for today’s Draft folks if you would like to keep up with events in Ukraine daily please consider subscribing, its free!
Feel free to share this update with your friends. Heroyam Slava!