UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-03-02
Slava Ukraini! Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 40 sources daily much of which ends up in the script. I will make this Draft available here for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its situation update at 06:00 on Mar. 2 stated that it was day 738 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
During the past day, 82 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 9 missile strikes, 100 air strikes, and 161 MLRS attacks across the positions of our troops and settlements. As a result of the Russian attacks, unfortunately, there are dead and wounded among the civilian population. Destruction and damage to residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line.
During the day, the Ukrainian Air Force launched air strikes on 13 concentrations of enemy troops.
Ukrainian missile forces struck 1 focus area of military equipment, 3 artillery, 3 control points and 3 enemy ammunition warehouses.
Ukraine downs another Russian Su-34 bomber, 14/17 Shaheds over past day
The Ukrainian Air Force reported that on Mar. 1 Ukrainian forces shot down a Russian Su-34 on the eastern front as it attempted to conduct aerial bombing strikes on a Ukrainian military position. This is in addition to the 13 Russian warplanes, including 10 Su-34 fighter bombers, two Su-35 fighter jets, and A-50 AWACS aircraft that Ukraine shot down in the month of February.
On the night of 2 March, Russian troops attacked Ukraine with 17 Shahed-136/131 kamikaze UAVs launched from Primorsko-Akhtarsk in Russia’s Krasnodar Krai and from occupied Crimea.
Ukrainian air defense destroyed 14 drones over Odesa, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts, as reported by Ukraine’s Air Force.
The remaining three drones attacked Odesa, Kharkiv Oblast, and the city of Kharkiv, killing two civilians in Odesa and one in the Kupyansk district of Kharkiv Oblast.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kup’yans’k axis: The enemy did not conduct any offensive (assault) operations.
Lyman axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 14 attacks near Terny, Yampolivka (Donetsk oblast) and Bilhorivka (Luhansk oblast)
Bakhmut axis: Ukrainian forces repelled 8 attacks near Bohdanivka, Ivanivske and Andriivka (Donetsk oblast)
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the Avdiivka, Mar’inka, Shaktars’ke, and Zaporizhzhia axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Avdiivka axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 24 enemy attacks near Berdychi, Orlivka,Tonen’ke, Pervomais’ke and Nevel’s’ke (Donetsk oblast).
Mar’inka axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the occupiers in the vicinities of Krasnohorivka Heorhiivka, and Novomvahkilivka (Donetsk oblast). Troops repelled 28 attacks in that area.
Shakhtarske axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 1 attack near Urozhaine, (Donetsk oblast)
Orikhiv axis: The enemy did not conduct any offensive (assault) operations.
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Kherson axis: The enemy did not conduct any offensive (assault) operations.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Russian drone strike in Odesa, at least seven casualties
Russia attacked using Shahed drones in Odesa on the night of March 2, several multi-story buildings were damaged, and seven people, including a child, were injured, according to the head of the Odesa Regional Military Administration, Oleh Kiper. RBC-Ukraine reported.
Later it was reported that there was one fatality.
Zelenskyy signs law on implementing NATO standards in medical support within Ukraine's Armed Forces
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed legislation to ensure that Ukraine's Armed Forces receive adequate medical support. According to bill No. 10343, the document allows the Ministry of Defence to approve protocols and standards for providing pre-medical and medical care in accordance with NATO standards.
The new law allows the Ministry of Defence to approve the list, quality standards, and minimum requirements for specialised medicines used by the military during combat operations. The explanatory note explains its adoption would help meet the need for military units to have modern, high-quality medical equipment.
“The bill is an important step toward ensuring that Ukrainian servicemen receive high-quality medical care that matches best international practices. It will not only improve the quality of pre-medical and pre-hospital care, but will also ensure more efficient use of resources, optimisation of medical processes, and, most importantly, the survival of Ukrainian defenders."
— Nataliia Kalmykova, Deputy Defence Minister
Within the framework of the law the military aims for:
unifying treatment approaches in health institutions of the Ministry of Defence of both municipal and state property;
establishing medical professional qualifications;
approving lists of medicines and equipment that will be supplied according to unified standards.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Ukraine drone hits Pantsir-S1 SAM system in Russia
The Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine’s Defense Ministry (HUR) stated that Ukraine’s unmanned aerial vehicles successfully attacked a Pantsir-S1 self-propelled anti-aircraft gun and missile system in Russia’s Belgorod region on Feb. 29 Ukrinform reports.
As a result of the attack, the system sustained damage, the report reads. The Pantsir-S1 was hit near the settlement of Golovchino in the Graivoron district.
Russia boosts military output in 2023, will have materiel edge over Ukraine in 2024
The UK Ministry of Defence in their Mar. 1 Intelligence update wrote that The Russian defence industry significantly increased its production output in 2023. This was achieved by expanding the workforce to roughly 3.5 million people, increasing shift patterns and expanding existing production lines, coupled with bringing idle production capacity back into service.
A significant proportion of this increased output comes from refurbishment and modernisation of existing stocks rather than new production. For example, the vast majority of main battle tanks produced in 2023 consisted of refurbished vehicles.
Artillery munition production rose sharply in 2023 and will likely increase further in 2024. However, munition production is likely to peak in the next 12 months due to capacity constraints.
Although the defence industry is unable to fully meet the demands of Russian operations against Ukraine, it is almost certainly capable of delivering a materiel advantage over Ukraine throughout 2024.
Russia likely grounds A-50 fleet following loss of second aircraft in Ukraine
The UK Ministry of Defence in their Mar. Intelligence update wrote that a week after the loss of a second A-50 airborne early warning and control aircraft, Russia has likely grounded the fleet from flying in support of Ukraine operations, according to UK intelligence.
The grounding is expected to continue while internal investigations are conducted to address the failure to protect another high-value enabler and to mitigate the threat posed by Ukrainian air defense.
The loss of this capability, which provides daily command and control to Russian air operations, highly likely significantly degrades the situational awareness provided to aircrews. This capability gap is particularly critical over the contested airspace of eastern and southern Ukraine, where effective air support is essential for ground forces.
To bridge this gap, Russia is likely exploring options, including repurposing aircraft and accepting greater risk to provide effective air support for its ground forces. However, the removal of A-50s supporting operations has almost certainly exacerbated this prolonged issue.
There is a realistic possibility that Russia may attempt to bring previously mothballed A-50 airframes back into service to alleviate the situation.
Putin's Pre-election promises would cost Russia US$130 bn
The price tag for the promises Vladimir Putin has made ahead of Russian presidential elections later this month will total tens of billions of dollars over the next six years. Bloomberg writes.
New national projects that Putin proposed in an annual address Thursday to the Federal Assembly, along with initiatives on improving living standards and massive write-offs of loans to Russian regions, could cost the Kremlin’s coffers more than $130 billion that’s not currently accounted for in the budget, analysts estimate.
Russia’s budget is already under pressure from elevated military spending driven by the war, which will exceed traditionally high outlays on social support this year. At the same time, strict and expanding sanctions weigh on the Kremlin’s proceeds from key commodity exports.
In 2023, Russia posted a fiscal gap for the second year in a row, and expects this year’s shortfall to come in at 1.6 trillion rubles.
WORLD NEWS
Zelenskyy and Rutte sign long-term security pact between Ukraine and Netherlands
On 1 March 2024, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte signed a Ukraine-Netherlands security agreement in Kharkiv, as the Presidential Office of Ukraine reported.
This agreement, part of the G7’s Joint Declaration to support Ukraine adopted at the NATO summit in Vilnius, reinforces the Netherlands’ commitment to continue assisting Ukraine in defending against Russian aggression.
The agreement, valid for ten years from the date of signing, includes a provision for €2 billion in military aid from the Netherlands to Ukraine in 2024, with continued defense support over the next decade. It encompasses a robust military component, prioritizing the provision of modern military equipment, including air defense systems, artillery, armored vehicles, and support for naval and long-range capabilities, particularly for the Air Forces.
The Netherlands reaffirmed its support for Ukraine’s future membership in the EU and NATO and established a 24-hour emergency response mechanism in case of renewed military aggression against Ukraine. During the meeting, Zelenskyy and Rutte, along with Ukrainian defense officials, discussed the current battlefield situation, the specifics of Russian air strikes, and the critical needs of Ukraine’s Armed Forces for ammunition, air defense systems, and armored vehicles. The needs of Kharkiv’s air defense forces were also addressed.
President Zelenskyy revealed that Ukraine already has security agreements with six states. These are the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Denmark, Canada, and Italy.
A new report shows pervasive Russian support among many of the “Old Guard” in western Europe
A new report from the Institute of Innovative Governance has been released entitled “Revealing Russian Influence in Europe” The report analyzes publicly available information about Russia’s influencers across media, digital platforms, political parties, business groups, and lobby groups. In total, 360 pro-Russian lobbyists were identified in Germany, France, Italy, and Ukraine seeking to undermine sanctions on Russia and support for Kyiv. This highlights the various forms of Russian influence in European politics and societies.
In France in particular the report identified 83 active pro-Kremlin voices across the French military, political, media, and diaspora spheres.
Russian influence in France is systemic and sophisticated. One of its most striking features is that the Kremlin is supported by retired high-ranking French military officers – in particular generals and former intelligence officials. Pro-Russian politicians include former presidents and prime ministers.
The report reveals the various pillars of Russian influence in France:
Russian immigrants — Since the arrival of a wave of Russian émigrés in the 1920s fleeing the 1917 revolutions, the Kremlin has sought to leverage this community within the French political and cultural elite to be sympathetic to Russian interests. Many became important figures in culture and business, providing links between French firms and Russian markets.
Right-wing political parties — The far-right Rassemblement National (former National Front) party has long-established ties with Russia. Yet it may be Moscow’s links with Les Républicains, France’s traditional center-right party, that are most important. It has a pro-Russian bloc including former President Nicolas Sarkozy and former PM François Fillon.
The Russian Orthodox Church — Through the 2007 reconciliation between the Moscow Patriarchate and Russian Orthodox Church Outside Russia, Russia regained control of émigré parishes. The opening of the Russian Orthodox Spiritual and Cultural Center spanning over 4,200 square meters in central Paris demonstrates that Russia selected France to showcase its resurgent power in Western Europe
A shared interest in a politics of “sovereignty” — In both Russia and France, a shared “sovereigntist” worldview prioritizes national interests over the EU and global bodies. This manifests as preferences for protectionist economics, opposition to immigration, and adherence to traditional gender/sexuality norms. While the French left dismisses the cultural aspects, they agree with Moscow’s critiques of EU political dominance and globalized trade.
Additionally France has numerous think tanks and analysts that echo Russian propaganda narratives. These include economists, sociologists, retired French generals, and intelligence officers who regularly appear in Russian and pro-Russian media. They publish reports and books aligned with the Kremlin’s propaganda on the Ukraine war and Russia’s geopolitical prospects.
According to Oleksiy Nabozhniak,one of the authors of the report and a senior lecturer at the Mohyn School of Journalism, a network of analytical centers working on international and military issues that propagate Russian narratives is a distinct feature of France. These centers typically employ several high-ranking retired military leaders or intelligence officials, allowing them to justify their positions based on experience.
Russian propaganda in media outlets — Russia maintains some media control in France, while RT France, the main outlet, has formally ceased to broadcast, it still maintains an online presence. Additionally there are other media organizations that trumpet Russian propaganda, interestingly both on the extreme left, and right.
A major issue in France is pro-Russian mainstream correspondents visiting occupied territories in Ukraine without Kyiv’s consent and seeking “balance” in Russia. Oleksiy Nabozhniak also warns about French TV shows interviewing Russian propagandists to seem “impartial”.
While pro-Russian elements in France may not directly influence official policy on Russia and Ukraine, their significant public support remains a cause for concern.
Investigations like those concerning Le Pen show real Russia ties, not rumors. More government and civil society efforts are needed to debunk Russian narratives and warn of costs of delays in arming Ukraine and expanding sanctions against Russia. Further investigations can help diminish the influence of propaganda and encourage the spread of verifiable information.
UK pressures Germany to send Taurus missiles to Ukraine
The government of the United Kingdom is privately urging Germany to supply long-range Taurus missiles to Kyiv. Bloomberg claims, citing sources.
Senior British ministers and officials have repeatedly made clear to Germany that Ukraine badly needs its Taurus missiles, according to people familiar with the matter. The UK offered solutions to Berlin’s resistance to sending them, including a swap deal that would see Britain supply Kyiv with more of its own Storm Shadow missiles, and Germany then restock the UK with replacement long-range missiles.
Germany should stop making excuses, said one British official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private conversations between the countries.
“Scholz’s behavior has showed that as far as the security of Europe goes he is the wrong man, in the wrong job, at the wrong time,” former Defense Secretary Ben Wallace told the Evening Standard newspaper on Thursday.
At a town hall meeting with citizens in Dresden on Thursday, Scholz explained his reasoning that Germany could not give Ukraine “a weapon with a range of 500km (310 miles) that, if used incorrectly, could reach a target in Moscow.” He added: “We have to make sure that we know where it will land,” suggesting the only way to do that would be to have German troops assisting with target-control.
Grumpy here — Thats some creative math indeed Olaf, Taurus has a range of 310 miles, which is why Ukraine wants it and is designed to destroy hardened targets (wave goodbye to the Kerch Bridge) Moscow is 615 miles from the Ukrainian border
Russia officially banished from Danube Commission
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba on Twitter reported that Russia has been officially expelled from one of the oldest international organisations, the Danube Commission, which regulates navigation on the Danube.
"Russia had until February 29 to withdraw from the organisation on its own. However, the aggressor lacked the courage to do so. As a result, beginning today, the Commission's member states will no longer officially recognize their commitments to Russia under the founding Belgrade Convention."
— Dmytro Kuleba. Ukrainian Foreign Minister
In addition, Kuleba added, for the first time in its history, the Danube Commission imposed a fine on Russia for non-payment of contributions after it was deprived of its powers in the organisation in March 2022.
North Korea suspends ammunition shipments to Russia by sea
North Korea has suspended the supply of ammunition to the Russian Federation by sea, likely due to production issues in the DPRK or logistical problems, stated South Korean publication NK Pro. Other signs point to a resumption in the future, however, highlighting the need to continue monitoring the vessels.
The Russian cargo ship Lady R returned to Rason on Feb. 4 for the first time since late October, according to NK Pro analysis of Planet Labs high-resolution imagery. NK Pro had previously revealed that the Lady R had been involved in the shipment of arms from North Korea.
It was moored at a government-owned port in central Vladivostok over the winter before visiting Vostochny Port on Jan. 30 and again on Feb. 8 after picking up containers at Rason.
MILITARY & TECH
Netherlands to Provide Military Aid to Ukraine
The Ministry of Defense of the Netherlands reported that they will provide a new military aid package to Ukraine, featuring boats, landing craft. Funds will also be allocated for the purchase of ammunition.
"The delivery concerns 14 rigid hull inflatable boats (RHIBs), 8 militarized river patrol boats and CB90 assault craft. Some of these watercraft will be supplied from Defense’s own inventory, while others will be sourced from industry," the statement said.
The CB90 is a class of fast military assault craft used by several countries after being originally developed for the Swedish Navy by Dockstavarvet.
The CB90 is an exceptionally fast and agile boat that can execute extremely sharp turns at high speed, decelerate from top speed to a full stop in 2.5 boat lengths, and adjust both its pitch and roll angle while under way. Its light weight, shallow draught, and twin water jets allow it to operate at speeds of up to 40 knots (74 km/h) in shallow coastal waters. The water jets are partially ducted, which, along with underwater control surfaces similar to a submarine's diving planes, gives the CB90 its manoeuvrability.
The Netherlands also contributing €250 million to the Czech initiative to order large numbers of artillery shells for Ukraine in the short term.
Ukraine may receive first shells through Czech-led artillery initiative “within weeks”
Ukraine’s military is set to receive the first of what may be hundreds of thousands of 155mm artillery shells as part of an international effort to forage foreign stockpiles as US efforts to send more aid remain hung up in Congress. Bloomberg reports.
Ukraine could see the first shells arrive within weeks under the initiative, which has the Czech Republic serving as the middleman to link governments willing to finance the purchase of excess 155mm shells in third countries, Jan Jires, the country’s director general for defense policy and strategy, said in an interview in Washington.
Jires said a number of European countries are part of the initiative. He didn’t identify what nations are funding the purchases or whose stockpiles are being tapped but said deliveries are likely to be disclosed after their arrival.
Czech President Petr Pavel said at the Munich Security Conference last month that his country had identified 500,000 rounds of 155mm shells and 300,000 rounds of 122mm ones that could be delivered within weeks if the money was made available.
European leaders discussed the Czech proposal, which foresees buying ammunition from countries outside the the region, at a meeting in Paris on Monday. The Netherlands agreed to contribute €100 million ($109 million) to the plan. The government in Prague said it also secured preliminary commitments from Canada and Denmark, as well as other countries that didn’t wish to be identified.
In Washington, House Republican lawmakers have stymied the Biden administration’s $60 billion request for Ukraine military assistance, which includes more than $3 billion for munitions that would be drawn down from Pentagon stockpiles. The US has provided Ukraine more than 2 million rounds of 155mm caliber munitions since Russia’s invasion two years ago.
The Czech Republic initiative is one way “of us demonstrating we are actually doing something, not waiting what is going to happen on the Hill,” Jires said.
US Army Secretary Christine Wormuth told reporters Tuesday that government-owned, contractor-operated facilities are on track to ramp production of 155mm shells to about 36,000 a month starting about April from 28,000 a month as of October. The funds requested in the stalled legislation are needed to achieve the Army’s goal of producing 100,000 155mm shells a month by late 2025, she said.
Ukrainian pilots conduct strike mission training on F-16s
Yurii Ihnat, spokesman for the Ukrainian Air Force stated on Mar 1 that Ukrainian pilots and engineers are continuing their training on F-16 fighter jets, with pilots practising tactical manoeuvres.
"The process is ongoing. Pilots are practising tactical manoeuvres, carrying out missions against both air and ground targets. This is very, very necessary, because not only do they need to fly and control the airspace, they have to engage in combat. Our pilots are currently honing these skills.
Similarly, aircraft personnel and engineers are learning how to service this aircraft, its weaponry, how to program it, and how to deliver precise strikes with high-precision weapons. All this preparation is necessary for the aircraft to operate most effectively in the Ukrainian sky, destroying enemy air, ground, and sea targets. Ukraine is also adapting infrastructure at specific airbases to facilitate the use of these aircraft."
— Yurii Ihnat, spokesman for the Ukrainian Air Force
Ihnat emphasised that the training programme for the F-16s spans a minimum of two years. However, Ukrainian flight and ground crews are undergoing accelerated training, with the retraining process having taken about six months. In other words, Ukraine is doing everything possible to ensure that these aircraft enter our airspace as quickly as possible and fulfil their missions.
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