UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-03-07
Slava Ukraini! Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 40 sources daily much of which ends up in the script. I will make this Draft available here for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its situation update at 06:00 on Mar. 7 stated that it was day 743 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
During the past day, 92 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 6 missile strikes, 90 air strikes, and 115 MLRS attacks across the positions of our troops and settlements. As a result of the Russian attacks, unfortunately, there are dead and wounded among the civilian population. Destruction and damage to residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line.
During the day of Mar. 6, the Ukrainian Air Force struck 7 areas of enemy personnel concentration.
Ukrainian missile forces attacked 1 area of enemy personnel concentration , 1 ammunition warehouse, and 4 enemy artillery systems.
Satellite Data Reveals At Least Six russian Su-34 Fighter Jets Did Not Return To Basease
There may be confirmation of sorts for Ukrainian claims of having shot down a number of Russian aircraft over the last several weeks outside of statistical analysis that has shown a reduction of airstrikes. The Dnipro OSINT group revealed That analysis of satellite data over the period suggests that at least 6 SU-34s did not return to their bases
“We all know that within 15 days, the air defense forces of Ukraine shot down 11 Russian Su-34 fighters in the east and southeast of the so-called territory of Ukraine. The fact that only 2 planes were shot down was visually proven, and this is obvious, because the planes were shot down in the very rear of the Russian occupiers. And although there is no particular evidence - the results are visible, the sky over Ukraine is practically clear [especially in the east], and the number of aerial bomb drops has halved
But, of course, this was not enough for us, so we checked satellite images of many Russian front-line airfields, counting the number of Su-34s before and after the downing. And you know, it looks like someone didn't come back”
— Dnipro OSINT group
To sum up, Dnipro OSINT group’s analysis suggests a minimum 6 SU-34s out of the 11 claimed did not return to base, there is physical evidence of two having crashed and 8 SU’s were relocated perhaps to replace losses.
Ground Forces Commander: Ukraine plans counteroffensive in 2024
Ukraine is gearing up for a major counteroffensive against Russian forces in 2024, according to the senior military leadership. Lt-Gen Oleksandr Pavliuk, the country’s Ground Forces’ commander, revealed details of Ukraine’s strategy to seize the initiative on the frontlines and push back against the Russian occupation, according to UNIAN.2024
“Everything is being done to seize the initiative. Our task is to stabilise the front line, destroy the enemy as much as possible, regroup as much as possible to withdraw units that need to be restored, create a strike group and conduct counterattack operations this year,” said the Lieutenant General.
According to him, Russia is desperately trying to capture more territory ahead of its presidential election. Intercepted communications indicate Russian forces are throwing undertrained recruits into battle with little regard for casualties.
Despite this, Ukrainian troops are holding strong in hotspots like the Avdiivka sector, Chasiv Yar, and Terny near Lyman, inflicting heavy losses on the Russians, Pavliuk says.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kup’yans’k axis: The enemy carried out 4 assaults in the areas of the settlements of Synkivka and Tabaivka (Kharkiv oblast) unsuccessfully trying to improve its tactical position.
Lyman axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 11 attacks near Terny (Donetsk oblast) and Bilhorivka (Luhansk oblast)
Bakhmut axis: Ukrainian forces repelled 15 attacks near Ivanivske, Klishchiivka and Andriivka (Donetsk oblast)
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the Avdiivka, Novopavlivka, and Orikhiv axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Avdiivka axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 21 enemy attacks near Berdychi,, Tonen’ke, Pervomais’ke and Nevel’s’ke (Donetsk oblast).
Novopavlivka axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the occupiers in the vicinities of Krasnohorivka Heorhiivka, and Novomvahkilivka (Donetsk oblast). Troops repelled 20 attacks in that area.
Orikhiv axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 16 attacks near Robotyne and west of Verbove (Zaporizhzhia oblast).
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Kherson axis: Ukrainian defenders continue to maintain their positions. Over the past day, the enemy carried out 1 unsuccessful assault on the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces on the left bank of the Dnipro River.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Russians plan to build a military sports complex for schoolchildren in temporarily occupied Simferopol
In the temporarily occupied Simferopol, Qirim, Russians are planning to build a complex to train schoolchildren in military professions, according to Russian propaganda outlets Svidomi reports.
"The initial military training programme will include serious work with pre-conscription youth, and we are ready to 'help' schools and other educational institutions to undergo training practice at this training ground," said Alexander Dyachenko, head of the Russian Council of the Union of Crimean Border Guards.
The Russian occupying authorities on the peninsula have already allegedly allocated a 55-hectare plot. By the end of April 2024, it is planned to install a training strip and simulators.
In addition, so-called "lessons of courage" have become more frequent on the peninsula. The Russians call the programme for schoolchildren "a social project aimed at allegedly educating and promoting an active civic position among young people".
At the Russian-occupied Crimean Vernadsky University, demobilised Russian soldiers are being trained to work with children, including to deliver so-called "lessons of courage". This is not the first time that members of the Russian army have conducted such 'lessons' for Ukrainian children.
The Ukrainian Parliament Commissioner for Human Rights, Dmytro Lubinets, has previously stated that Russia has been pursuing a policy of militarising Ukrainian boys and girls on the Crimean peninsula since the beginning of its occupation in 2014. After the full-scale invasion in 2022, the process of re-education of young people has only intensified.
"Russia's militarisation of education and imposition of its ideology on children in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine is a war crime under international humanitarian law! The Russian Federation must be held accountable for all crimes against Ukrainian children," Lubinets stressed.
THE HOME FRONT
Russia kills 5 in Odesa during Zelenskyy, Greek PM Mitsotakis meeting
A Russian missile struck the Odesa port on Mar. 6, as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Greek PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis met there.
Five people were killed in the morning Russian shelling of Odesa, and the number of injured is still being determined, reported Dmytro Pletenchuk, the spokesperson for the Ukrainian Navy. According to him, the missile strike targeted the Odesa port.
Russian forces struck Odesa while President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis at the port. Zelenskyy reported casualties in the city and reiterated Ukraine’s urgent need for air defence systems.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Massive fire breaks out at military school in Russian Kazan: Barracks ablaze
The Higher Tank Command School in Kazan, Russia, is on fire. The epicentre of the fire was the barracks, according to Russian propaganda outlet
RBC Ukraine reports barracks are burning on the territory of the school, and the fire has spread to the roof.
Various outlets reported "The fire has been assigned the second fire rating. Firefighters are working at the scene," and "Evacuation was carried out, there are no victims. Firefighters continue to extinguish the barracks on the Orenburg highway,"
WORLD NEWS
Sweden officially becomes 32nd NATO member today
Sweden will officially join the NATO Alliance on March 7, 2024, becoming the 32nd ally, according to the White House.
At the same time, the White House noted that Sweden is a strong democracy with highly effective armed forces that share the values and vision of the alliance.
"Having Sweden as a NATO Ally will make the United States and our Allies even safer," the statement said.
Swedish news agency The Local reported that Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto had flown to the United States to hand over ratification documents from his country to Sweden.
Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson and Foreign Minister Tobias Billström are also in Washington, having arrived there the day before.
According to the schedule published by the US State Department, Blinken's meeting with Kristersson is scheduled for 18:15 Kyiv time. Presumably, he will then present Sweden's accession documents to NATO, and the country will officially join the military alliance.
At the same time, the ceremony of raising the Swedish flag at NATO headquarters in Brussels is already scheduled for Monday, March 11.
Czech Republic gathers allies, nears full funding for 800,000 shells for Ukraine
Bloomberg reports that Ukraine’s allies have nearly allocated all the necessary funding for the Czech Republic’s initiative to purchase 800,000 artillery shells, consisting of 500,000 rounds of NATO-standard calibre 155mm shells and 300,000 rounds of 122mm ones. Once fully funded, the shells could be delivered to Ukraine within weeks, depending on contractual obligations and delivery schedules.
On Mar. 7 Norway announced it was allocating $153 million USD to the initiative, joining Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Denmark, Canada and France
Czech President Petr Pavel said at the Munich Security Conference last month that his country had identified 500,000 rounds of 155mm shells and 300,000 rounds of 122mm ones that could be delivered within weeks if the money was made available.
Ukraine is estimated to need at least 200,000 rounds a month to keep up the fight against Russian forces, whose average daily shell use can be anywhere from three to five times what Ukrainian forces can fire.
It is hoped that this initiative will help Ukraine stabilise the situation while Europe scales up production and America hopefully gets its act together.
US State Department comments on Russia's strike on Odesa during Zelenskyy's visit
The strike by Russia on Odesa during the visit of President Zelenskyy and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis has drawn criticism from the US State Department. Officials from the department emphasized that this is yet another proof of Ukraine's need for enhanced air defense systems, citing a briefing from the US State Department.
Spokesperson Matthew Miller commented on the Russian strike on March 6 during the visit of Zelensky and Mitsotakis to the city of Odesa, saying that this incident serves as a reminder of how Russia continues to inflict attacks on Ukraine daily.
"The strike is yet another reminder of how Russia continues to strike Ukraine every single day, and it’s a reminder of Ukraine’s need for air defense interceptors, and it’s a reminder that the United States Congress needs to take action, as we have called on them to do, to support Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression," he said.
US Weighs Tapping Army Funds for Ukraine as Aid Bill Stalls
The Biden administration is weighing whether it can tap around $200 million in US Army funding to provide Ukraine immediate support as a larger aid package remains stalled in Congress, according to people familiar with the matter. Bloomberg reports.
The funding could be used to pay for critical weapons, supplies, and other equipment as Ukraine faces an artillery shortage, and comes as Russian forces have made small territorial advances in recent weeks.
Debate over utilising a small amount of Pentagon reserves underscores the furious effort at the White House to find any possible support for Ukraine. But the possible funding is minuscule compared to the more than $61 billion in Ukraine assistance President Joe Biden has asked Congress to authorise, and White House officials have previously discounted their ability to tap additional resources for Ukraine’s benefit.
A final decision hasn’t been made yet. A spokesperson for the National Security Council said that if the speaker were to put the bill to a vote, it would pass overwhelmingly. Biden is expected to renew that call Thursday night during his State of the Union address.
Ukraine warned its allies late in January that it was facing a shortage of shells and was being outgunned by Russia, and could have to ration resources across a frontline that stretches for 1,500 kilometres (930 miles).
MILITARY & TECH
UK tank museum helped reverse-engineer Soviet-era parts for firm supplying materiel to Ukraine
The Tank Museum in Bovington, Dorset, disclosed that it assisted in reverse-engineering Soviet-era tank tracks for Cook Defence Systems, a defence firm supplying components to Ukraine, following a request from the Ministry of Defence, BBC reported.
Incomplete Soviet-era drawings and links from Ukraine were used with the museum's own track specimens to help reproduce the replacement tracks.
The components have since been manufactured and shipped.
The tracks and drive sprockets were made by County Durham-based Cook Defence Systems for MT-LB and BMP amphibious infantry fighting vehicles and for T-72 battle tanks.
"The Tank Museum's collections are used for many purposes. When we can help industry and our allies, of course we should. We are very pleased to hear the reproduced track is now arriving in Ukraine."
— David Willey ,Curator - The Tank Museum
The museum said challenges included developing new steel alloys to match the original Russian specifications, and redesigning forged and welded components as castings to suit the new manufacturing process.
Cook Defence Systems has been a manufacturer of tracks for British armoured fighting vehicles since 1941, including the UK's Challenger 2 tank.
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