UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-02-03
Slava Ukraini! Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 40 sources daily much of which ends up in the script. I will make this Draft available here for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its situation update at 06:00 on Jan. 3 stated that it was day 710 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
During the past day, 77 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 2 missile strikes, 86 air strikes, and 46 MLRS attacks across the positions of our troops and settlements. As a result of the Russian attacks, unfortunately, there are dead and wounded among the civilian population. Destruction and damage to residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure.
Russia taking advantage of Ukraine’s ammunition shortage
The Institute for the Study of War in its Feb. 2 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment stated that open-source investigations indicate that Russian forces are benefitting from Ukraine’s ammunition shortage and inability to conduct sufficient counterbattery warfare.
Ukraine-based open-source organisation Frontelligence Insight stated on February 1 that Russian forces previously established stationary artillery firing positions for long periods of time from late 2022 to early 2023 when ammunition shortages limited Ukrainian counterbattery warfare capabilities.
Frontelligence stated that Russian forces began to concentrate their artillery in a similar way in January 2024, suggesting that Ukrainian forces are again running low on artillery ammunition. Frontelligence stated that Ukrainian forces can sometimes strike Russian artillery but overall lack adequate ammunition for effective counterbattery fire. Frontelligence stated that the lack of Ukrainian counterbattery fire allows Russian artillery to largely destroy settlements, making it nearly impossible for Ukrainian forces to defend the settlements. Frontelligence stated that many of Ukraine’s FPV drones lack the range to strike the numerous Russian artillery pieces deployed 15 to 24 kilometres from the frontline. Western and Ukrainian officials have recently highlighted Ukraine’s need for artillery ammunition.
ISW continues to assess that artillery shortages and delays in Western security assistance will create uncertainty in Ukrainian operational plans and likely prompt Ukrainian forces to husband materiel, which may force Ukrainian forces to make tough decisions about prioritising certain sectors of the front over sectors where limited territorial setbacks are least damaging.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group is responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine.
Kup’yans’k axis:Ukrainian defenders repelled 5 attacks of the enemy near the settlements Synkivka of Ivanivka (Kharkiv oblast)
Lyman axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 5 attacks near Terny, (Donetsk oblast)
Bakhmut axis: Ukrainian forces repelled 2 attacks near Bohdanivka and Klishchiivka (Donetsk oblast)
The Tavria operational-strategic group is responsible for the Avdiivka, Mar’inka, Shaktars’ke, and Zaporizhzhia axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.
Avdiivka axis: Ukrainian defenders continue to hold back the enemy who keeps trying to encircle Avdiivka. AFU soldiers are standing their ground and inflicting major losses on the invaders. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 29 enemy attacks near Avdiivka, and 15 near Pervomais’ke and Nevel’s’ke (Donetsk oblast).
Mar’inka axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the occupiers in the vicinities of Heorhiivka, and Novomykhailivka (Donetsk oblast). Troops repelled 7 attacks in that area.
Shakhtarske axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 1 attack south of Zolota-Nyva, (Donetsk oblast)
Zaporizhzhia axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 3 attacks near Robotyne and west of Verbove (Zaporizhzhia oblast).
The Odesa operational-strategic group is responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.
Kherson axis: Ukrainian defenders continue to expand the bridgehead. Despite significant losses, the enemy does not abandon its attempts to dislodge Ukrainian troops from their positions. Over the past day, the enemy carried 7 unsuccessful assaults on the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Zelenskyy announces arrival of two advanced air defence systems in Ukraine
Ukraine has received two new air defence systems, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced in his evening address on 2 February. Zelenskyy did not specify the systems he was referring to but stated they are capable of “shooting down everything.”
Western air defence system and missile provisions remain crucial for Ukraine as Russian forces attempt to adapt to current Ukrainian air defence capabilities and as Ukraine develops its defence industrial base
“The main news today is something we’ve all been eagerly awaiting, the result of months of work at various levels. Two more air defense systems have arrived in Ukraine,” Zelenskyy stated, emphasizing the critical nature of these advancements. While he refrained from disclosing full details for security reasons, the President assured that these systems would significantly aid in defending the regions.
Zelenskyy acknowledged the current insufficiency of systems for the complete protection of Ukraine but reassured that efforts are ongoing to remedy this. “There are still not enough systems to fully protect Ukraine, but we are working towards this every day,” he remarked, underscoring the continuous work to secure further defensive measures.
THE RUSSIAN WORLD
Putin evokes WW II Soviet mobilisation in speech
The Institute for the Study of War in its Feb. 2 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin evoked a wide Russian social and economic mobilisation reminiscent of the Soviet Union’s total mobilisation during the Second World War during a speech despite the fact that Russia is undertaking a far more gradual but nonetheless effective mobilisation of its defence industrial base (DIB).
Putin attended the “Everything for Victory” event in Tula Oblast on Feb. 2 and promoted Russian efforts to expand its DIB to the audience of 600 “Everything for Victory” is a Soviet-era slogan that Soviet authorities first used during the Russian Civil War and then extensively during the Second World War to promote the widespread mobilisation of Soviet industry and society.
Putin stated that defence industrial workers are currently working under this slogan just as their grandfathers and great-grandfathers did. Putin asserted that modern Russian defence industrial workers have proven themselves worthy of these ”ancestors,” who won the industrial battle against Nazi Germany and Europe‘s defence industry to create the Soviet victory of 1945.
Putin followed his Soviet predecessors in ignoring the critical role the Western defence industry played in facilitating the Soviet victory through the Lend-Lease program. The Kremlin has previously appealed to the mythos of the Great Patriotic War (Second World War) to reassure the Russian public that the Russian war effort will bring to bear overwhelming manpower and materiel for victory in Ukraine as the Soviet Union did for the Red Army against Nazi Germany.
Putin’s allusion to the Soviet Union’s total mobilisation during the Second World War does not necessarily indicate that he intends to bring Russia to such a wartime footing, although he may be engaging in such rhetorical overtures to gauge domestic reactions and prepare the Russian public for a wider economic or military mobilisation.
Ukraine attacks another oil refinery – this time in Volgograd
A fire on 3 February at one of Russia's largest oil refineries in Volgograd was the result of a successful attack by Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) drones, sources within the Security Services confirm.
The source notes that two drones hit the primary oil refining unit, without which the plant will lose "a significant part of its production capacity".
"The SSU continues to systematically destroy the infrastructure used by Russia to wage war in Ukraine. By attacking oil refineries that work for the Russian military-industrial complex, we not only cut off the logistics of fuel supplies for enemy equipment but also reduce the filling of the Russian budget. The explosions at Russian refineries will continue." an SSU source said
Ukraine's Defence Intelligence: Tu-95 pilot who carried out missile attacks on Ukraine shot in Russia
Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (DIU) has reported that Major Oleg Stegachov, the crew commander of a Tu-95 strategic bomber, was shot dead in Engels, Russia.
The pilot, 40, served at the Engels airbase and was directly involved in launching missile strikes on civilian targets in Ukraine. It is not yet known if he survived the attack.
Ukrainian Intelligence issued this chilling warning along with the announcement:
"We remind you that all war criminals will face retribution. We know your names, addresses, car number plates, usual routes and habits."
NEWS WORLDWIDE
Borrell insists EU intends to send 1,000,000 shells Ukraine even if initial March timeline is not met
EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Joseph Borrelll, announced that the European Union (EU) will not meet its commitment to deliver one million shells to Ukraine by March 2024, but aims to fulfil this promise by the end of 2024, the US-based Institute for the Study of War reported.
On 1 February, Borrelll said that the EU had supplied Ukraine with 330,000 artillery rounds from March 2023 to January 2024, and anticipates reaching a total delivery of 524,000 rounds by March 2024.
Borrell also stated the EU plans to supply Ukraine with an additional 630,000 shells by the end of 2024. Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, noted that the European defence industrial base (DIB) has ramped up its production by 40 percent within an unspecified period. She added that EU member states are facilitating the delivery of munitions to Ukraine by utilising national stockpiles, placing new orders, or rerouting existing ones.
Bulgaria starts sending Ukraine 100 armoured personnel carriers from its warehouses
Bulgaria’s Defence Minister Todor Tagarev announced they have begun shipping 100 armoured personnel carriers to Ukraine from the warehouses of the Ministry of Internal Affairs.
Photos of the APCs were released by the Minister: "The operation is ongoing. The Ministry of Defence supports the process of providing Ukraine with APCs from the Ministry of Internal Affairs".
In November 2023, Bulgaria's National Assembly ratified an intergovernmental agreement between Sofia and Kyiv that regulated the supply of 100 written off armoured personnel carriers from the Bulgarian Ministry of Internal Affairs to Ukraine.
Polish Foreign Minister reiterates Poland’s stance on Ukraine's borders after Duda's doubts about Crimea
Radosław Sikorski, Polish Foreign Minister, has stressed, following President Duda's controversial statement on Crimea, that Poland recognises Ukraine's independence within its internationally established borders, which have been repeatedly confirmed by Russia.
These borders were confirmed BY RUSSIA “starting with the Treaty of 19 November 1990, the Budapest Memorandum of 5 December 1994 and the Border Treaty of 28 January 2003," Sikorski said.
This comes after Polish President Andrzej Duda on Friday said in an interview with Kanal Zero that he did not know whether Ukraine would regain Crimea. He stressed that he believes that Ukraine will regain Donetsk and Luhansk.
MILITARY & TECH
Lithuania delivers ammunition, detonation systems to Ukraine
Lithuania delivered thousands of anti-tank grenade launcher Carl Gustaf rounds and the RISE-1 long-range smart initiation system to Ukraine, marking another contribution to Ukraine’s defence capabilities, the Lithuanian Defense Ministry announced on 2 February.
This follows the announcement by Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda that Lithuania will provide $200 million in additional military assistance to Ukraine.
Lithuanian Defense Minister Arvydas Anušauskas also emphasised Lithuania’s efforts in the demining coalition it is “assembling for Ukraine.”
Canada may donate surplus ground attack rockets to Ukraine
Canada is considering donating its stockpile of 83,000 CRV7 air-to-ground rockets that are slated for disposal. The opposition Conservative party are demanding that the Liberal government instead donate them to Ukraine.
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, during the House of Commons debate on legislation to update the Canada-Ukraine free trade agreement on Friday, said he understands Ukraine has asked Canada to donate the CRV7s instead of destroying them.
The Department of National Defence (DND) acknowledged Friday that it still has the rockets and they're being considered as part of a possible future military donation package.
The problem — according to a defence official who spoke on background — is that while Canada still has tens of thousands of the rockets and their motors, not all of them have warheads.
A spokesperson for Defence Minister Bill Blair confirmed the government is considering donating the rockets.
"Before sending equipment to Ukraine, we coordinate closely with Ukraine to ensure that any donation would meet its military needs, and we examine the operational effectiveness of the equipment. We are following this same process for the CAF's stock of CRV7 rockets, purchased decades ago. In particular, we are pursuing testing to ensure that this equipment is operationally effective and safe to transport to Ukraine before any potential donation."
— Daniel Minden, spokesman for Defence Minister Bill Blair
Estonia sends new military aid to Ukraine, including Javelin missile systems
A new aid package from Estonia has arrived in Ukraine, including Javelin anti-tank systems, machine guns, rounds for small arms, various ground and water vehicles, and diving equipment. The Estonian Defence Ministry reported on Feb. 3.
The precise amount of weaponry, arrival time, and location are not disclosed for security reasons.
"I am pleased that another aid package has arrived in Ukraine and is being used by Ukrainian defenders," said Hanno Pevkur, the Defence Minister of Estonia.
"Recent events in Europe demonstrate that the dispatch of crucial missiles and other military assistance to Ukraine continues on a large scale, and with this, along with our allies, we are sending a clear message to the Kremlin that we will continue to support Ukraine until a victorious outcome is achieved," added Pevkur.
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