UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-06-09
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 60 sources daily, much of which forms the basis of the script. While the Podcast is on hiatus I will make this Draft available here both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 22:00 on June 8 stated that day 840 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.
During the past day, 76 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 44 air strikes, 481 drone strikes and 2,800 shellings across the positions of our troops.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deep into the territory of Ukraine.
Air Force and Missile and Artillery units today struck 21 personnel and military equipment concentration areas, control points, 4 PPOs, 1 REB station and 3 radiolocation stations.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Russia fails to fulfill its Kharkiv operation, Zelenskyy says
Russian troops failed their Kharkiv Oblast offensive, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in his evening address on June 8 after meeting with Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi. The Kyiv Independent reported.
Moscow launched a new offensive on May 10 in Kharkiv Oblast, where it reportedly managed to advance as far as 10 kilometers (6 miles) before Ukraine halted the advance near the first line of defense.
"A very significant result is that the Russian army failed. The direction is strengthened. And it will be strengthened more," Zelensky said.
Russia has reduced offensive operations in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast despite eyeing a further advance, Governor Oleh Syniehubov said earlier in the day.
Ukrainian troops are restraining Russian forces "as much as possible" and destroying their units, according to Zelenskyy.
Since launching a new offensive, Russia reportedly controls a handful of villages on two separate axes in Kharkiv Oblast, one near the town of Vovchansk and the other near Lyptsi village.
Ukrainian forces control "most of Vovchansk" as of June 8, Nazar Voloshyn, the spokesperson of the Khortytsia group of forces, said on national television. The town is described by Ukrainian officials as almost destroyed, while Russia keeps attacking other neighboring settlements, inflicting civilian casualties.
Kupyansk axis: Russian invaders assaulted Ukrainian positions in the vicinity of Synkivka, Pischane, Rozivka and Makiivka. Defense forces are taking measures to stabilize the situation.
Lyman axis: The enemy tried 7 times to advance in the vicinity of Nevske, Terny, Torske and Chervona Dibrova. 6 attacks were repelled, 1 is ongoing. The situation is under control.
Siversk axis: There were no significant changes in the environment of this region.
Kramatorsk axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 3 Russian assaults in the vicinity of Chasiv Yar, Ivanivske and Andriivka.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk axis: The Russians conducted 27 assaults in the area of Novooleksandrivka, Yevhenivka, Sokil, Novopokrovske, Novoselivka Persha and Yasnobrodívka. The situation has escalated. Defense forces are taking measures to prevent the enemy from advancing.
Kurakhove axis: There were no significant changes in the environment of this region.
Vremika axis: There were no significant changes in the environment of this region.
Orikhiv axis: There were no significant changes in the environment of this region.
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Prydniprovsk axis: There were no significant changes in the environment of this region.
Russia tries to explain it’s withdrawal of naval vessels from the Black Sea as a “change in tactics”
While the Kremlin hides its warships in the Sea of Azov, russian authorities desperately try to find an explanation for the retreat not only from Sevastopol but from Novorossiysk as well. Defense Express reports.
After the strange maneuvers of the remnants of the russian Black Sea Fleet on June 6 near Novorossiysk, when eight ships lined up and departed towards Crimea, we finally have a hint about where they went.
The possible explanation can be found in the fresh satellite imagery: although it's impossible to identify the ships in the image below considering its resolution, unofficial information claims these are three corvettes (small missile ships in Soviet classification) of the Buyan-M class accompanied by five VDK-class large landing ships.
Now let's take a look at official reports. On June 7, the Ukrainian Navy officially announced that there were 13 enemy ships in the Sea of Azov, three of which are carriers of Kalibr cruise missiles — even though the day before, there were none in these waters. As of today, June 9, there are 7 ships remaining in the Sea of Azov, three of them are carriers of cruise missiles. There's also information about the arrival of one VDK landing ship of Project 775 to Sevastopol in occupied Crimea.
Based on this data, Defense Express assumes that the russian forces decided to hide their ships in the Sea of Azov. The reasons for such a move are quite clear. The occupied Sevastopol has already become a graveyard for russian ships, now constantly targeted by ATACMS ballistic missiles, one notable example being the Tsiklon missile corvette destroyed right at the pier.
Meanwhile, the bay in Novorossiysk, a rear naval base where russians had transferred some of their ships back in October 2023, is a dangerous place, too. That's because it has a wide opening which makes it unrealistic to block with many rows of barricades, as they did in Sevastopol. That's not to mention Ukrainian attack naval drone operators have already figured out how to create passages in the boom barriers blocking the way in.
However, Ukrainian sea drones cannot yet cross the Kerch Strait, a natural entrance to the Azov Sea. Moreover, some limitations regarding the use of Western weapons for strikes on russia are still in force, so if they take the ships to the ports on its own territory, the vessels will become invulnerable in current conditions. The potential hideouts are the ports in Yeysk, Taganrog, and possibly Rostov-on-Don.
Moreover, the corvettes of the Buyan-M class can be redeployed even further into the rear to the Caspian or even the Baltic thanks to the network of inland waterways.
“But what's most interesting is how russian authorities comment on all these events at the official level. In particular, to a direct question about the retreat of russian ships from Sevastopol (and, in fact, from Novorossiysk, too), the russian-appointed governor of the city Razvozhaev said, "the ships did not leave, but changed their tactics." Then added that generally, the fleet is, as they say, is not all about ships: there are also aviation and other units.
Speaking of which, we cannot forget to mention Ukraine's systematic successful attacks on russian air bases and deployment sites across Crimea either.”
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing to report.
THE HOME FRONT
More than 67,000 women serve in the Ukrainian Armed Forces
Ukraine's Deputy Defense Minister Nataliia Kalmykova stated during an interview that more than 67,000 women currently serve in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and most of them are military personnel. Ukrinform reports.
"Currently, we have more than 67,000 women in the Armed Forces, of which 19,000 are workers, and others are service members," Kalkmykova said.
According to her, the number of women in the army has begun to increase since 2014, and after February 24, 2022, this dynamic accelerated despite the fact that the mobilization of women in Ukraine is not carried out.
Kalmykova also noted that today women increasingly choose professions in the army that are not considered feminine by default. They show a desire to shoot, control artillery systems, drones, etc.
"In 2018, the legislation was changed, and women got the right to hold positions in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. [...] At the same time, unfortunately, we still have a problem with the promotion of women. We are currently looking for ways to resolve this issue so that women who want to build a career in the Armed Forces could have this opportunity," she added.
After Russia launched its full-scale invasion, the number of women in the Armed Forces of Ukraine increased by 40%. As of the beginning of 2024, the total number of women who worked and served in the Armed Forces of Ukraine was over 62,000, including 45,587 servicewomen.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Russia’s new fighter the SU-57 struck on Russian airfield
The Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine (HUR) on June 9 reported that on Saturday, June 8, a russian Su-57 multi-purpose fighter jet was hit on the territory of the Akhtubinsk airfield in the Astrakhan Oblast of the russian federation.
The intelligence officers note that the damage is evidenced by satellite images of the aircraft parking at the enemy airfield. The pictures show that on June 7th, the Su-57 was standing intact, and on the 8th, there were ruptures from the explosion and characteristic spots of fire caused by fire damage near it.
The SU-57 is Russia’s claimed entry into the field of 6th Generation aircraft - which include stealth fighters such as the US F-22 and F-35. Experts claim the SU-57 has the radar signature of a barn, rendering it useless in that role.
Russia is currently unable to generate enough replacements to establish operational and strategic reserves.
US think tank The Institute for the Study of War stated in its June 8 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment that Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets noted on June 8 that a fraction of the reported 30,000 personnel that Russia generates each month arrives at the front as combat force replacements and reinforcements and that Russian force generation efforts have allowed Russian forces to establish only limited operational and strategic reserves.
Mashovets stated that on average each Russian operational grouping of forces receives between 1,000 to 1,500 combat personnel as replacements or reinforcements every month and may receive 2,000 if the grouping is responsible for intensified offensive operations.
There are six operational Russian grouping of forces operating within and near Ukraine, meaning that Mashovets is suggesting that Russian forces receive a total of 6,000 to 12,000 new combat personnel each month.
This figure is not incongruent with Ukrainian and Russian reports from January and April 2024 that Russia recruits 30,000 new personnel per month since a large number of these new personnel will fulfill combat support and combat service support roles or later assume combat arms roles following training.
Russian President Vladimir Putin stated on June 7 that Russia has recruited 160,000 new personnel so far in 2024, a figure fairly consistent with reports that the Russian military recruits about 30,000 personnel a month.
Russian forces have leveraged their possession of the theater-wide initiative to determine a tempo of fighting in Ukraine in recent months that appears to generate casualties roughly equal to or slightly less than the rate of newly generated forces.
This careful balance between Russian casualties and newly generated forces requires that Russian forces not significantly intensify offensive operations for a prolonged period of time, however. This balance becomes even more narrow when considering losses and new force generation for just Russian combat personnel.
ISW has observed a "pulsing" of Russian offensive operations along the front in recent months, wherein Russian forces alternate between intensified assaults and a lower operational tempo to replenish losses. The availability of new combat personnel is likely one of several determining factors for when Russian forces decide to alternate between intensified offensive operations.
Mashovets stated that Russian forces have accumulated at most 60,000 personnel in operational and strategic reserves over the past six to eight months (roughly from October 2023 to June 2024).
Russian forces have likely not properly trained or equipped these reserves, which they have previously used largely as manpower pools for restaffing and reinforcing committed units conducting grinding, infantry-heavy assaults with occasional limited mechanized assaults.
ISW continues to assess that planned Russian operational- and strategic-level reserves are unlikely to be ready to act as a first-echelon penetration force or as a second-echelon exploitation force capable of conducting effective large-scale combined arms assaults. These reported limited operational and strategic level Russian reserves likely will be insufficient to support simultaneous large-scale offensive efforts in several directions. The Russian military command will likely have to choose one main effort during its expected summer offensive effort, if it intends for these reserves to sustain a large-scale offensive operation.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
G7 plans to warn small Chinese banks over Russia ties
U.S. officials expect the Group of Seven (G7) wealthy democracies to send a tough new warning next week to smaller Chinese banks to stop assisting Russia in evading Western sanctions, according to two people familiar with the matter, Reuters reports.
Leaders gathering at the June 13-15 summit in Italy hosted by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni are expected to focus heavily during their private meetings on the threat posed by burgeoning Chinese-Russian trade to the fight in Ukraine, and what to do about it.
The United States and its G7 partners - Britain, Canada France, Germany, Italy and Japan - are not expected to take any immediate punitive action against any banks during the summit, such as restricting their access to the SWIFT messaging system or cutting off access to the dollar. Their focus is said to be on smaller institutions, not the largest Chinese banks, one of the people said.
Concern over the possibility of sanctions has already caused China's big banks to throttle payments for cross-border transactions involving Russians, or pull back from any involvement altogether, Reuters has reported.
MILITARY & TECH
France’s Thales to supply Ukraine with second CM200 air defense system
Under the French Ministry of Armed Forces, Ukraine’s Defense Ministry signed a contract with Thales Group for delivery of another complete air defense system CM200 to enhance protection of its territory, according to the company’s press release. Following an initial 2023 supply proving effective in combat, Ukraine opted for this second system for improved security, Thales says.
This short-range system comprises the ControlMaster 200 (CM200) integrating the Ground Master 200 surveillance radar, radio communications, ControlView air defense command-and-control center, and portable weapon terminals.
According to Thales, the CM200 simultaneously detects and tracks targets across all altitudes and environments, coordinating air defense from Very Short Range (VSHORAD) to Extended Short Range (E-SHORAD). The Ground Master 200 radar rapidly establishes and maintains target tracks, improving situational awareness. This enables the ControlView command and control system to assess threats and direct the appropriate firing units for air target engagement efficiently.
The CM200 provides complete surveillance. Ground Master 200 detects aircraft, helicopters, drones, cruise missiles, surface and artillery targets up to 250 km and 24 km altitude. It can integrate with the SAMP/T system with 40 km range French-made Aster 30 missiles also supplied to Ukraine.
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