UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-01-06
Slava Ukraini! For the past six months I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 40 sources daily much of which ends up in the Ukraine War Written Brief. While this is going through a period of transition I will make this Draft available here for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its situation update at 06:00 on Jan. 06 stated that it was The six hundred and eighty first day of large-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
During the past day, 62 combat engagements took place. In total, the enemy carried out 5 missile and 25 air strikes, carried out 32 attacks from MLRS on the positions of our troops and populated areas. As a result of Russian terrorist attacks, unfortunately, there are dead and wounded among the civilian population. Residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure were destroyed and damaged.
Little progress in Russia’s Ukrainian offensives over past week
The UK Ministry of Defence in its Jan. 05 Intelligence Update reported that sustained Russian offensive operations over the past week result in marginal advances at best against steadfast Ukrainian lines in various sectors including northeastern, eastern, and southern Ukraine.
Over the last week, ground combat has continued to be characterised by either a static front line or very gradual, local Russian advances in key sectors.
In the north, near Kupiansk, Russia’s Western Group of Forces continues to conduct a large-scale but inconclusive offensive operation. In northern Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine has maintained a stable front line in the face of small-scale Russian attacks around Bakhmut. In central Donetsk, Avdiivka is still heavily contested, while Russian forces have consolidated late December 2023 gains around Marinka, which saw them finally advance to the western edge of the town after nine years of combat in the area.
In southern Ukraine, Russian airborne forces have highly likely made minimal progress in a renewed attempt to dislodge the Ukrainian bridgehead on the eastern bank of the Dnipro around the village of Krynky.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group is responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine.
Russia may attempt a large scale offensive in the Kharkiv region this winter
The Institute of the Study of War in their Jan. 05 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment stated that Russian forces may intensify efforts to capture Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast, in the coming weeks and have a grouping of forces in the area that appears to be less degraded than Russian groupings responsible for offensive efforts elsewhere in eastern Ukraine.
Russian forces appear to have conditions conducive to intensifying operations in the Kupyansk direction (Kharkiv-Luhansk oblast area) with the intent of making territorial gains in areas that are more operationally significant than other areas that Russian forces are currently attempting to seize. Ukrainian officials have stated that Russian forces aim to capture Kupyansk and Borova (35km west of Svatove) during winter 2024.
Russian seizure of those towns would likely force Ukrainian forces off the east bank of the Oskil River in Kharkiv Oblast and set conditions for future Russian offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. The tempo of Russian operations in the Kupyansk direction and the apparent configuration of Russian forces in occupied Luhansk and Kharkiv oblasts overall does not indicate an impending Russian offensive effort along the entire Kupyansk-Lyman line, similar to the failed Russian offensive effort in northeastern Ukraine in winter-spring 2023. Russian forces likely have not accumulated enough forces in Belgorod Oblast to support launching large-scale offensive operations elsewhere in northern or northeastern Kharkiv Oblast as of this writing.
Ukrainian officials have not publicly reported any sudden buildup of Russian forces in the Kupyansk direction indicating that a large-scale offensive to advance to the Oskil River is imminent. Russian forces appear to have gradually reconstituted units badly degraded during the Ukrainian counteroffensive in September 2022 and Russia’s failed winter-spring 2023 offensive. These reconstituted units intensified localised offensive operations that Russian forces started in the area in October 2023.
Russian forces operating in the Kupyansk direction appear not yet to have committed a substantial force to current offensive operations in the area and thus have been able to sustain localised ground attacks without suffering losses similar to those that Russian forces have suffered in operations around Avdiivka and in southern Ukraine.
These forces operating in the Kupyansk direction, are largely comprised of the 1st Guards Tank Army (GTA) and 6th Combined Arms Army (CAA) and have not heavily participated in large offensive operations since the culmination of the Russian winter-spring 2023 offensive in April 2023.1st GTA and 6th CAA elements have likely reconstituted to a considerable degree through the incorporation of manpower generated by Russia’s September 2022 partial mobilisation and continued crypto-mobilisation efforts.
UK outlet the Telegraph reported on January 4 that an unspecified source ”close“ to the Ukrainian military stated that Russian forces may conduct a ”ground offensive” as early as January 15.
ISW’s assessment that Russian forces may intensify offensive operations, though not launch a full-scale offensive operation, with the existing grouping of forces in the Kupyansk direction. Russian forces may have conducted a gradual buildup of forces since Ukrainian officials reported that the Russian military concentrated over 100,000 personnel in the Kupyansk and Lyman directions as of October 2023.
Grumpy analysis – The map above shows the likely goal of any large-scale Russian offensive in the Kharkiv region this winter as being the towns of Kupyansk and Borova. If the Russians were to reach these goals they would make everything east of the Oskil river untenable for the AFU and would constitute the largest Russian gain since the failure of the initial operation early in the full scale war.
Rumours of a greater offensive attacking from the Belgorod region with the goal of capturing the city of Kharkiv appear to be without merit.
Lyman axis: the occupiers did not conduct any offensive (assault) operations.
Bakhmut axis: the Ukrainian soldiers repelled 3x adversary attacks near Klishchiivka and Andriivka (Donetsk oblast).
The Tavria operational-strategic group is responsible for the Avdiivka, Mar’inka, Shaktars’ke, and Zaporizhzhia axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.
Avdiivka axis: the Ukrainian defenders continue to hold back the enemy who keeps trying to encircle Avdiivka. The Ukrainian soldiers are standing their ground and inflicting major losses on the occupiers. For instance, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 4x enemy attacks in the vicinities of Novobakhmutivka, Avdiivka, and 17x more attacks near Pervomais’ke and Nevel’s’ke (Donetsk oblast).
Mar’inka axis: the Ukrainian defenders continue to hold back the invaders near Mar’inka, Pobjeda, and Novomykhailivka (Donetsk oblast). The Ukrainian defenders repelled 15x attacks in that area.
The Odesa operational-strategic group is responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea
Kherson axis: the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to expand the bridgehead. Despite significant losses, the enemy does not abandon its intention to dislodge Ukrainian troops from their positions. For instance, the adversary made 13x unsuccessful attempts to assault during the day of January 5.
Destruction of SU-34’s disrupts Russia’s plans to attack Ukrainian bridgehead
The UK Ministry of Defence in its Jan. 06 Intelligence Update reported that Ukraine thwarted Russia’s plans to attack the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ bridgehead on the left bank of the Kherson region on Dec. 22 with the successful destruction of three SU-34 FULLBACK fighter-bombers over Kherson.
After these losses, the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) almost completely stopped manned operations in the south until the end of December 2023.
There is a realistic possibility that the lack of air support contributed to the failure of attempts by the Russian 18th CAA to defeat the bridgehead.
In recent days, Russian troops have stepped up tactical airstrikes around the beachhead, but have not reached previous levels
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Kremlin's Secure Communication Channel, russia's Air Defense Control in Occupied Crimea Were Disrupted
The Atesh Ukrainian partisan movement reports on successful joint work with the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Its result will make it easier for the Defenders of Ukraine to strike the peninsula in the future.
Recently, the coordinates of the occupiers' military unit located in Yevpatoriya, Crimea, as well as its radars were published on the Atesh Telegram channel. The movement monitored all movement of the radar system for weeks sharing the information with Defense Forces of Ukraine.
Due to the information the Defense Forces of Ukraine struck the military unit on January 4, 2024.
The next day the Atesh agents reconnoitered the military unit again as well as reported the results of the strike against russian invaders.
"The control point, which was responsible for a secure communication channel with the Kremlin, as well as for coordinating the air defense of the entire peninsula, was hit," the statement reads.
Ukrainian forces struck Russian ammunition depots in occupied Qirim
On 4 January, Ukrainian forces struck Russian ammunition depots near the village of Pervomaiske in Russian-occupied Qirim, the Strategic Communications Department of Ukraine’s Armed Forces confirmed on 5 January.
This follows a recent Ukrainian attack on a command post of the Russian occupying forces near Sevastopol.
Ukrainian air strikes hit airfield in occupied Qirim
Ukrainian forces struck a command post at the Saki military airfield in Novofedorivka, located in Russian-occupied Crimea, Commander of Ukraine’s Air Forces Mykola Oleshchuk reported. Commander Oleshchuk expressed gratitude towards the Ukrainian pilots for their successful operation.
On the evening of Jan. 05 Telegram channels reported explosions in occupied Crimea and the closure of the Crimean Bridge.
The Russian Ministry of Defense later claimed that on the night of Jan 06, their air defence systems allegedly shot down four guided missiles over occupied Crimea.
The 43rd Fighter Aviation Regiment of the Russian Air Force, which is armed with Su-24 bombers and Su-30 fighters, has been based at the Saki airfield since Russia occupied Crimea in 2014. Journalists note that aircraft from this airfield have been used for attacks in the southern regions of Ukraine. Additionally, the airbase hosts the “Nytka” naval aviation personnel training complex.
The Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR) later confirmed successful strikes on the airfield in Saki
The agency published satellite images of the airfield. It is reported that enemy radar stations were also destroyed there
THE HOME FRONT
Russian Kinzhal ballistic hypersonic missile warhead neutralised in Kyiv
Sappers of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine reported they had carried out the neutralisation of the warhead of a russian Kinzhal aeroballistic hypersonic missile.
The State Emergency Service of Ukraine showed Specialists working on the disposal of an unexploded warhead of a Kinzhal aeroballistic hypersonic missile in the Shevchenkivskyi District of the Ukrainian capital.
Pyrotechnicians of the Rapid Response Mobile Rescue Center of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine conducted the successful operation.
THE RUSSIAN WORLD
Nothing to report.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
US calls UN Security Council meeting over North Korea’s missile supply to Russia
The United States has called for a UN Security Council meeting on 10 January to discuss the supply of missiles from North Korea to the Russian Federation, as stated by US Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield.
Ambassador Thomas-Greenfield revealed that the US has obtained new information indicating that the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) recently provided Russia with ballistic missile launchers and several dozen ballistic missiles.
The US assesses that North Korea is seeking military assistance from Russia in return for this support, marking a significant escalation in military cooperation between the two nations. This cooperation is seen as a blatant violation of the UN arms embargo on North Korea, undermining the global nonproliferation regime.
The ambassador emphasised the Russian Federation’s pattern of behaviour, highlighting its disregard for its responsibilities as a UN Security Council member and its support for regimes engaged in arms proliferation. She also pointed out North Korea’s efforts to improve its nuclear weapons delivery systems, noting more than 30 launches using ballistic missile technology in 2023, all in violation of Security Council resolutions.
Pentagon dismisses reports of expiring ATACMS destruction instead of sending to Ukraine
Reports claiming that the United States intends to discard expired ATACMS missiles instead of sending them to Ukraine are unfounded, stated Pentagon Press Secretary Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder during a briefing on 4 January. Ukrinform reports.
Earlier, Newsweek said that the ATACMS expiry date “raises questions” The White House did not confirm Newsweek’s report and suggested that journalists reach out to the US Department of Defense for clarification.
When asked on 4 January about the existence of a batch of expired ATACMS missiles slated for destruction in the US, Pentagon Press Secretary Pat Ryder responded:
“I’ve seen those press reports. We looked into this and it is not true. Those reports are false,”
Ukraine identifies 42 foreign components in Russian Kh-59 missiles
Ukraine’s National Agency on Corruption Prevention (NAZK) has expanded its database of foreign components in Russian weapons, adding 42 new details specific to the Russian Kh-59 cruise missile. The agency’s press service announced on 5 January.
The missiles contain electronic components from the USA, and Switzerland
A representative from the NAZK emphasised the importance of preventing foreign technologies and components from continuing to be a part of aggressors’ weaponry that causes civilian casualties globally.
NAZK aims to assist in the global effort to enforce sanctions and prevent the proliferation of such weaponry.
Nepal suspends work permits for Russia following citizens killed fighting in Ukraine
Nepal has suspended the issuance of work permits for its citizens seeking employment in Russia following the deaths of at least 10 Nepali mercenaries reportedly fighting for the Russian army in Ukraine, Reuters reported.
The Nepali government has formally requested Russia to cease the recruitment of its citizens in the Russian military and to ensure the safe return of all Nepali citizens. Additionally, it seeks compensation for the families of those who lost their lives.
Foreign Minister N.P. Saud, in a statement to the state-run RSS news agency, mentioned that nearly 200 Nepalis were believed to be working in the Russian army, with about 100 currently reported missing.
MILITARY & TECH
Ukraine has received 26 self-propelled artillery systems Dana-M2 from the Czech Republic
The AFU announced on Jan. 04 that it had received 26 DANA-M2 self-propelled artillery systems from the Czech Republic Armyinform reports. At last some of these units are already in service with the 56th separate motorised infantry brigade.
The DANA-M2 is an upgraded version of the wheel gun DANA VZ 77, which is already in the arms of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. These SPGs are built on an 8 wheeled Tatra chassis and chambered for the Soviet 152mm shell. Normal shells of this calibre have a range of up to 18.7 km, however the Dana M2 can fire special ammunition that has a range of up to 25 km. Czechia supplied a quantity of this ammunition with the unit, but Ukraine has also commenced manufacture of this shell. The M2 is capable of a sustained rate of fire of 5 rounds per minute and carries 50 shells onboard.
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