UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-01-25
Slava Ukraini! Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 40 sources daily much of which ends up in the script. I will make this Draft available here for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its situation update at 06:00 on Jan. 25 stated that it was day 701 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
During the past day, 58 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 6 missile strikes, 97 air strikes, and 121 MLRS attacks across the positions of our troops and settlements. As a result of the Russian attacks, unfortunately, there are dead and wounded among the civilian population. Destruction and damage to residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group is responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine.
Kup’yans’k axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 6 attacks of the enemy near the settlement of Synkivka, (Kharkiv oblast).
Lyman axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 4 attacks of the occupiers near Makiivka, (Luhansk oblast) and 5 attacks near Terny, the Serebryansky forest and Dibrova (Donetsk oblast).
Bakhmut axis: Ukrainian forces repelled 7 attacks near Vasiukivka, Bohdanivka, Klishchiivka and Ivanivske (Donetsk oblast)
The Tavria operational-strategic group is responsible for the Avdiivka, Mar’inka, Shaktars’ke, and Zaporizhzhia axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.
Avdiivka axis: Ukrainian defenders continue to hold back the enemy who keeps trying to encircle Avdiivka. AFU soldiers are standing their ground and inflicting major losses on the invaders. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 4 enemy attacks near Avdiivka, and 8 near Pervomais’ke and Nevel’s’ke (Donetsk oblast).
Mar’inka axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the occupiers in the vicinities of Heorhiivka and Novomykhailivka (Donetsk oblast). Troops repelled 16 attacks in that area
Shakhtarske axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 2 attacks south of Zolota-Nyva and east of Staromaiors’ke (Donetsk oblast)
Zaporizhzhia axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 1 attack near Robotyne (Zaporizhzhia oblast).
The Odesa operational-strategic group is responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.
Kherson axis: Ukrainian defenders continue to expand the bridgehead. Despite significant losses, the enemy does not abandon its attempts to dislodge Ukrainian troops from their positions. Over the past day, the enemy carried 7 unsuccessful assaults on the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Massive cyber attack hits Ukrainian e-services
On the morning of 25 January, a cyber attack made at least three major Ukrainian e-services temporarily inaccessible, according to Liga. Those affected were the Shliakh information system allowing the male civil volunteers to cross the border, and the online client services of Naftogaz oil and gas company and the Ukrposhta national postal operator.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine represents the first modern war with a major cyber warfare component, blending traditional trench warfare akin to early 20th-century conflicts with a highly innovative struggle for cyber dominance. Both Russia and Ukraine conduct cyber attacks on each other’s IT systems.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine represents the first modern war with a major cyber warfare component, blending traditional trench warfare akin to early 20th-century conflicts with a highly innovative struggle for cyber dominance. Both Russia and Ukraine conduct cyber attacks on each other’s IT systems.
Ukraine returns four abducted children from Russian captivity
Human rights organization Save Ukraine managed to retrieve four more children from Russia and the occupied territories of Ukraine.
Thousands of other minors still in captivity are being illegally adopted into Russian families despite having alive parents in Ukraine or brainwashed into becoming Russian mercenaries.
Save Ukraine is a volunteer organization helping families and children affected by war. Its executive director is Mykola Kuleba, former Ombudsman for Children with the President of Ukraine. On 24 January, Save Ukraine completed its 15th rescue mission, and in total, they managed to return 231 Ukrainian children from Russia and the occupied territories.
The unlawful deportation of children is a war crime. According to Ukraine’s official data, Russia has kidnapped almost 20 thousand children, though the figures might be underestimated due to active hostilities and occupation of part of the territory of Ukraine. “If we return one child every day, it will take us 55 years,” said Dmytro Lubinets, Ukrainian Parliament Commissioner for Human Rights. According to Lubinets, Ukraine returned 517 abducted children home as of 14 January.
THE RUSSIAN WORLD
Russia’s Black Sea port oil refinery engulfed in flames after another drone raid
An oil refinery caught fire in Russia’s Tuapse City overnight on 25 January, according to Russian authorities and local sources drones were spotted in the sky before three explosions occurred, followed by the blaze. One Russian propaganda outlet claimed that three drones were shot down, but their debris crashed, causing the fire. Citing its sources in Ukrainian intelligence, Suspilne reported the incident was a drone strike conducted by Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) as part of an air raid campaign targeting fuel facilities on Russian territory.
Tuapse is a port city on the Black Sea coast in Russia’s southwestern region of Krasnodar Krai, separated from Ukraine’s Russian-occupied Crimean peninsula by the Kerch Strait. The Krasnodar region is crucial in sustaining Russian military operations in Ukraine’s south.
The Tuapse air attack continues a series of fires at fuel facilities across Russia, which occurred on 18-21 January in the Leningrad, Tambov, and Bryansk oblasts, disrupting Russian logistics and industrial operations.
The fire in Tuapse was localized nearly five hours following the outbreak of the blaze. According to the local governor of Tuapse district, Sergey Boyko, there were no casualties. The Sochi airport, some 100 kilometers away from the Tuapse oil refinery, was temporarily shut down for three hours in order to “ensure flight safety.”
Russia is struggling to deliver basic infrastructure needs to its citizens
The UK Ministry of Defence in its Jan. 25 Intelligence Update stated that in recent months, there have been heating breakdowns in 16 locations across Russia. These breakdowns amidst sub-freezing temperatures are an expansion of an existing problem that has plagued Russian cities and towns for decades but has likely become more acute due to Russian wartime policies.
Russia has routinely prioritised military spending over re-investment in general public infrastructure, especially since the full scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Many regional governments have been asked tighten their belts receiving less federal revenue while at the same time being asked to raise local volunteer units straining budgets. Many have responded by cutting budgets fort maintenance. Additionally, mobilisation has likely led to a labour shortage across all industries including qualified heating engineers and plumbers.
Putin has asked the Minister of Emergency Situations to address this issue, which is a key concern for Putin ahead of the impending Russian presidential election.
Below is the interior of a Russian apartment building after several days of no heat during the Russian winter
NEWS WORLDWIDE
Zelenskyy calls for international probe into Russian military IL-76 crash
On 24 January, a Russian IL-76 military cargo plane crashed in Russia’s Belgorod Oblast. The Kremlin accused Ukraine of deliberately shooting down the plane, which they claim was carrying 65 captured Ukrainian soldiers for a prisoner exchange, in what it called a “barbaric act of terrorism” that killed 74 people total.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated Ukraine wants an international investigation into the downing.
Zelenskyy added top Ukrainian officials including the Defense Minister, military commanders, intelligence heads, and Security Service chief briefed him on the situation surrounding the Russian plane incident.
The Russian Defense Ministry said there were six Russian crew members and three Russian soldiers on the IL-76 military transport plane. Moscow has summoned an urgent session of the UN Security Council in connection with the crash.
The UN Security Council session to discuss the Russian Il-76 crash will take place on Friday, January 26. Russia had asked current Security Council President France to convene an urgent meeting on 24 January, but France declined.
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine released the following statement in regards to the crash:
“The Armed Forces of Ukraine will continue to take measures to destroy means of delivery and airspace control in order to eliminate the terrorist threat, including in the Belgorod-Kharkiv direction,”
Berlin, Kyiv close to agreeing on security assurances
At a joint press conference with Slovak PM Robert Fico in Berlin on 24 January, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz stated that Germany and Ukraine are nearing an agreement on security assurances, Ukrinform reports.
On 12 January in Kyiv, Ukraine, and the UK signed a bilateral agreement focusing on military cooperation and security guarantees for Ukraine in the event of another Russian attack. Ukraine is also engaging in negotiations for similar agreements with over a dozen countries, including the US, Canada, and France.
Scholz mentioned his intensive discussions with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, including a call earlier that day, and anticipated future talks. A key topic in their recent conversation was the “security partnership,” which both nations are actively developing.
“I assume that we will finalize this soon… I have a feeling that we are on the verge of finalizing negotiations,” the Chancellor said, promising to announce the details once the deal is signed.
Chancellor Scholz assured on behalf of Germany that Berlin will support Ukraine for as long as it takes, citing the existential threat to Ukraine’s sovereignty from the Russian war, underscored by President Putin’s overtly imperialist rhetoric.
Scholz refuted the notion that the war’s persistence is due to a lack of dialogue between Kyiv and Moscow, reminding that over 200 meetings had occurred under the Minsk agreements and the Normandy format before 24 February 2022, yet Russia still launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
US Congress takes step forward in confiscating Russian assets to help Ukraine
A U.S. Senate committee approved legislation on Wednesday that would help set the stage for the United States to confiscate Russian assets and hand them over to Ukraine for rebuilding after the destruction of the nearly two-year-long war. Reuters reports.
The Senate Foreign Relations Committee voted 20 to 1 in favor of the unprecedented "Rebuilding Economic Prosperity and Opportunity (REPO) for Ukrainians Act."
If it were to pass the full Senate and House of Representatives and be signed into law by President Joe Biden, as expected, the act would pave the way for Washington's first-ever seizure of central bank assets from a country with which it is not at war.
Senator Ben Cardin, the Democratic foreign relations committee chairman, was optimistic about the bill becoming law, noting that it has broad support, from both Democrats and Republicans in the Senate and House, as well as from Biden's administration.
"Ukraine is on the verge of being overrun by Russia if we do not give them the help that they need... and we all know that it will not end with Ukraine," he said, before the committee voted.
The one "no" vote on the panel came from Republican Senator Rand Paul.
MILITARY & TECH
UK wants German Tauruses to send more of its Storm Shadows to Ukraine
Several weeks ago, Britain proposed to Germany an exchange of cruise missiles, potentially easing Germany’s hesitation about supplying its Taurus missiles to Ukraine, Handelsblatt reported on 24 January, referencing government and diplomatic sources. The proposal entails Britain sending Storm Shadow cruise missiles to Ukraine while receiving German Taurus missiles in return.
Since May 2023, Ukraine has been actively urging Germany to supply Taurus missiles to enhance their capability to disrupt Russian logistics, yet Berlin hesitates, contrasting with the UK and France’s decision to provide Ukraine with Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles and the US decision to send its ATACMS. The German government’s reluctance stems from fears of escalating the war by giving Ukraine the means to strike targets within Russia.
The Handelsblatt report added that German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s office is closely examining the proposed missile swap, with sources familiar with the negotiations indicating potential support for the idea in Berlin.
Denmark provides $13.2 million to enhance Ukraine cyber capabilities against Russia
Denmark’s Defense Ministry has unveiled a $13.2 million aid package for Ukraine, aimed at strengthening Kyiv’s defense capabilities against Russian cyber attacks. Newsweek reports.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine represents the first modern war with a major cyber warfare component, blending traditional trench warfare akin to early 20th-century conflicts with a highly innovative struggle for cyber dominance. Denmark is a key player in the Ukraine IT Coalition, an initiative spearheaded by Estonia and Luxembourg since September 2023 to enhance Kyiv’s cybersecurity amid the Russian-Ukraine war.
Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen, in a January 24 press release, highlighted the new $13.2 million donation as “an important contribution to the long-term support for the strengthening of Ukraine’s cyber defense,”
More to be done before Ukraine deploys F-16 fighter jets
Ukrainian Air Force Command spokesman Yurii Ihnat on Ukrainian TV on Jan. 25 stated that international partners are ready to supply Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets, but preparations for their effective deployment are still in progress, including preparing infrastructure and training pilots and maintenance technicians.
Ukraine aims to use F-16 fighter jets to counter Russia’s air superiority at the frontline. The dense air defenses prevent Russian aircraft from operating behind lines in Ukraine-controlled territory, but they maintain an edge with longer-range radars and air-launched missiles and bombs. By deploying F-16s, which are superior to their current Soviet-era aircraft, Ukraine hopes to push Russian aircraft further from the front.
“Partners are ready to provide us with these capabilities. The question is whether everything is ready for their operation in Ukraine. Quite often we see all kinds of timelines or forecasts, coming from different countries or experts. It is clear that everything must be prepared, including pilots, infrastructure, and maintenance engineers, and also there are other factors that are not discussed as widely,” Ihnat said.
The spokesman stressed the need for a thorough strategy in introducing and utilizing new multi-purpose aircraft in Ukraine, particularly for combat. He highlighted the future key roles of the F-16s in Ukraine: attacking invaders, defending airspace, repelling enemy planes, and intercepting drones.
As Ukrainian aviators train to operate the F-16s in the EU and the US and Ukraine prepares land infrastructure for the fighter jets, experts speculate when the country can deploy the Western aircraft. The Ukrainian Air Force spokesman, however, often denies the suggested timelines.
Russian forces employing new poison gas grenades, says armament research centre
Russia is escalating its use of weapons containing chemical substances, and deploying a new type of gas grenade according to a representative of the Center for the Study of Trophy and Perspective Arms and Military Equipment, Captain Andriy Rudyk, said that in December 2023, 81 cases of use of Russian grenades with poisonous substances were recorded.
Rudyk said that in December 2023, Russians were observed using grenades containing poisonous substances a total of 81 times.
Combat use of the new model of gas grenade, named the RG-VO, was first observed that month. The grenade contains chloroacetophenone, an asphyxiant gas that is prohibited by the Geneva Protocol for the Prohibition of the Use of Asphyxiating, Poisonous or Other Gases, and of Bacteriological Methods of Warfare.
The research centre says that if one such grenade were to be thrown into a room or bunker, those inside would perish within five minutes. The captured grenade sent to the centre for analysis was manufactured in 2023 by a plant that has operated since Soviet times.
The centre says that Russia is currently "testing the waters" with the use of these grenades, and that its future expansion of the use of chemical weapons will be determined by the reaction of the international community.
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