UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-04-07
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 60 sources daily, much of which forms the basis of the script. While the Podcast is on hiatus I will make this Draft available here both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its situation update at 06:00 on Apr. 7 stated that it was day 774 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
During the past day, 57 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 10 missile strikes, 88 air strikes, and 71 MLRS attacks across the positions of our troops and settlements. As a result of the Russian attacks, unfortunately, there are dead and wounded among the civilian population. Destruction and damage to residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line.
Ukrainian missile forces struck 2 concentrations of weapons and military equipment, 1 UAVs control post, 1 artillery system, 1 electronic warfare station
Russia’s losses in March were three times Ukraines, even with a severe Ukrainian ammo shortage
During the month of March, Russia lost three times more equipment than Ukraine. This comes from data analysis of visually confirmed losses gathered by OSINT Andrew Pertua.
This comes at a time of the most severe ammunition shortage for Ukraine since the beginning of the war. What the casualty figures would have been had the US not abandoned its ally at this critical juncture boggles the mind.
Delayed US military supplies impact the Ukrainian forces’ capabilities to respond to Russian mechanised assaults
The Institute for the Study of War in its Apr. 6 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment stated that Ukrainian armed forces experienced critical material shortages amid growing Russian mechanised assaults in the eastern frontline.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has expressed concerns over the country’s ability to effectively counter the increasing tempo of Russian mechanised assaults in eastern Ukraine due to ongoing delays in US security assistance. In a recent interview, Zelenskyy emphasised that Ukrainian forces currently lack sufficient ammunition to initiate and sustain future counteroffensive operations, forcing them to rely on drones to partially compensate for artillery shortages.
The situation has become particularly challenging east of Chasiv Yar and west of Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast, where Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi reported a significant intensification of Russian mechanised assaults ranging from platoon-sized to battalion-sized attacks. The Press Service of the Ukrainian Airborne Forces reported that Russian forces are still attempting to break through Ukrainian defences west of Avdiivka using massed armoured vehicle support, however, at a slightly lower scale than during assaults as large as the ones that they conducted in the area between March 29 and March 31.
Despite successfully repelling these assaults, Ukrainian forces struggle to maintain their defence due to persistent material shortages.
Furthermore, Zelenskyy cautioned that the arrival of all promised F-16 fighter jets from Ukraine’s Western partners in 2024 would only provide 10 percent of the aircraft needed to completely defeat Russian aviation and restore Ukraine’s ability to operate effectively in the air domain.
Air Force Daily Report
The Ukrainian Air Force in its situation update at 06:00 stated that during the previous day they launched air strikes on 14 concentrations of troops, weapons and military equipment, and 1 anti-aircraft missile system
On the night of Apr. 7, the enemy struck with a H-31 cruise missile from the temporarily occupied Luhansk region, an Iskander-M ballistic missile from occupied Qirim and 17 Shahed-131/136 from Cape Chauda [occupied Qirim].
As a result of anti-aircraft combat by the Defense Forces of Ukraine, all 17 enemy attack drones "Shahed" were shot down over Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk and Poltava oblasts were shot down
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kup’yans’k axis: The enemy did not conduct any offensive (assault) operations in this area. Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold their positions.
Lyman axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 7 attacks near Terny (Donetsk oblast) where the occupiers attempted to breach Ukrainian defensive lines.
Bakhmut axis: Ukrainian troops repelled more than 14 attacks in the vicinities of Bilohorivka (Luhansk oblast), Verkhn’okam’yans’ke, Vyimka, Spirne, Bohdanivka, Klishchiivka (Donetsk oblast).
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the Avdiivka, Novopavlivka, and Orikhiv axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Avdiivka axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 5 attacks in the vicinities of Novokalynove, Berdychi, Netailove (Donetsk oblast), where the invaders attempted to dislodge Ukrainian troops from their positions.
Novopavlivka axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the enemy in the vicinities of Heorhiivka and Novomykhailivka, (Donetsk oblast). The invaders, supported by aviation, made 21 attempts to breach Ukrainian defenses in that area.
Orikhiv axis: The enemy conducted 2 attacks on positions of Ukrainian defenders in the vicinities of Staromaiors’ke (Donetsk oblast), Robotyne (Zaporizhzhia oblast).
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Kherson axis: Ukrainian defenders continue to maintain their positions. Over the past day, the enemy carried out 5 unsuccessful assaults on the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces on the left bank of the Dnipro River.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Russia recruits Ukrainians in occupied territories to fight in Africa,
The Ukrainian National Resistance Center reports that Russia’s Wagner private military company (Wagner PMC) has started a large-scale recruitment of Ukrainians in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine (TOT).
These recruits, aged 22 to 50, are reportedly offered a salary of 240,000 rubles (approximately $2592) if they sign a six-month contract. During this period, they are required to fight on Wagner’s orders and perform mining operations in Africa.
The National Resistance Center notes that Russia violates international humanitarian law with its recruitment on the TOT.
In the last few years, Russia has increased its operations in various African countries. The BBC noted that Russia is offering governments in Africa a ”regime survival package” in exchange for access to strategically important natural resources.
In every country in which it operates, Wagner was reported to have secured valuable natural resources using these to not only cover costs but also extract significant revenue. Russia has extracted $2.5 billion worth of gold from Africa in the past two years, which is likely to have helped fund its war in Ukraine.
Grumpy here — Russia has long eyed the possibility of expanding its influence in Africa, to the point of imperialistic ambitions. In addition, Russia is working to change mining laws in West Africa, with the ambition of dislodging Western companies from an area of strategic importance. This is part of the process of the Russian government taking over the businesses of the Wagner mercenary group, broken up after a failed coup in June 2023.
THE HOME FRONT
Zelenskyy: Ukraine needs 25 Patriot systems for full air defence protection
Speaking in an interview with Ukraine’s national newscast, President Zelenskyy revealed that Ukraine requires 25 Patriot air defence systems, each consisting of 6-8 batteries, to fully protect the country’s airspace.
This admission comes on the heels of Ukraine’s request for Patriot systems at a NATO summit in Brussels as Ukraine reels under Russian ballistic missiles and guided aerial bombs it is currently unable to intercept. He noted that the results of Ukraine’s air defence work are impressive, making it seem as if there are many systems in place, but this is not the case.
“I won’t tell you how many Patriot systems we have, but I can say how many are needed to cover Ukraine for the future,” Zelenskyy said, adding “Therefore, to fully cover our state, even those regions where there are no strikes, we need 25 Patriot systems,”
Zelenskyy said that Ukraine’s partners are well aware of this requirement and even know the locations where these systems should be deployed. According to Zelenskyy, alternatives to the Patriot system are also suitable for Ukraine, although there are very few of them.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Ukraine’s attack on Engels Air Force base destroys Russian bomber
On Apr. 5 Ukraine conducted a mass drone raid on several Russian Air Force bases which Russia seemed powerless to defend against.
The attack, carried out against Engels, Morozovsk, and Yeysk airfields, is one of Ukraine’s largest-yet. The damage testifies to the growing effectiveness of Ukraine’s long-range drone program, developed amid the West’s prohibition on striking objects on Russian soil.
Ukrainian security sources told Ukrainian media after the strike that the Ukrainian drone strikes conducted by Ukraine’s Security Service and Special Forces Operations, significantly damaged three Tu-95MS strategic bombers at Engels airbase, damaged two Su-25 fixed-wing aircraft at the airbase near Yeysk, and destroyed six unidentified aircraft and significantly damaged another eight unidentified aircraft at the Morozovsk Airbase.
Now, a source familiar with the matter, who asked to remain anonymous, has told Euromaidan Press that following further analysis one of the three Tu-95MS bombers at Engels base was damaged beyond repair in the operation, the other two are most likely capable of repair.
Tu-95 bombers were regularly involved in large-scale missile attacks against Ukraine, launching Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles at targets in Ukraine. The Russian military had roughly 60 Tu-95 aircraft as of 2023.
Defence Intelligence reports Apr 5 drone strikes 4 Russian Su-30 jets and 1 amphibious aircraft in Yeysk
New information provided by an anonymous Defence Intelligence official to Ukrainska Pravda suggests that drones controlled by Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence damaged seven Russian aircraft at the Yeysk airfield, Russia, on Apr. 5
Seven Russian aircraft were damaged in the attack, including four Su-30SM multi-role fighter jets, two military transport aircraft, and a BE-200 amphibious aircraft.
The official told Ukrainska Pravda that more accurate information has become available concerning the Ukrainian defence intelligence drone strike on the Russian military airfield in Yeysk. The airfield’s diesel substation was also destroyed.
Second dam bursts in Russia's Orsk: local refinery shut down, state of emergency declared
The operation of the Orsk refinery has been suspended due to flooding after a second dam burst in the Russian city of Orsk, with water already approaching another major city, Orenburg. Meduza writes.
A federal state of emergency has been declared in the entire Orenburg Oblast.
The head of Russia's Emergency Situations Ministry stated that the situation in Orsk is "critical". People are being evacuated from flooded houses at the moment. The official also proposed to "temporarily ban the sale of alcohol in the flooded areas of Orsk".
The only oil refinery in Orenburg Oblast, Orsknefteorgsintez, has also suspended operations to avoid an environmental disaster.
Emergency workers have also begun preventive evacuations of residents of 10 settlements in Kurgan Oblast, which has been placed on high alert on 5 April.
As Russia is forced to apply ever larger amounts of its total budget to its efforts to subjugate Ukraine the country’s own ageing infrastructure is crumbling leading to numerous disasters over this past winter and spring.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
Russian personnel expelled from NATO HQ
In an interview with BILD, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg revealed that several Russian personnel have been expelled from NATO headquarters for engaging in intelligence activities rather than diplomatic work.
The NATO chief said the Alliance “expelled, for instance, Russian personnel from NATO headquarters because we realised that they were carrying out activities that were not actually diplomatic work, but intelligence work.”
However, he did not disclose the exact number of individuals expelled or provide specific details about the intelligence they had gathered while at the NATO headquarters, located in Brussels.
In October 2021, NATO expelled eight members of Russia’s mission, labelling them as “undeclared Russian intelligence officers” who were secretly working as spies. Additionally, NATO reduced the size of the team that Moscow is allowed to have at the alliance’s headquarters to 10, though the reason for this decision was not specified.
China increases military support to Russia, US says
The US has warned its European allies that China has escalated its support for Russia in the ongoing Ukraine war, providing geospatial intelligence, microelectronics, and other key military components to aid Moscow’s war efforts, further straining relations between Washington and Beijing, Bloomberg reports.
Beijing’s self-portrayal as neutral in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine contrasts with its deep alliance with Moscow, termed by Russia’s Putin as a “no limits” friendship before the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics. Also, China has been criticised for refusing to condemn Russia’s aggression in Ukraine.
The US has warned its European allies that China has significantly increased its military support for Russia in the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war. Amid signs of ongoing military integration between China and Russia, Bloomberg sources reveal that China has supplied Russia with satellite imagery for military use, as well as microelectronics and machine tools for tanks. Additionally, China’s support extends to optics, propellants for missiles, and enhanced space cooperation, according to one source.
In July 2023, Russian customs returns revealed a significant increase in imports of “computer numerical control” (CNC) machine tools from China, amounting to $68 million, up from $6.5 million in February 2022. Financial Times reported that since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Chinese shipments of advanced CNC tools to Russia have increased tenfold. With the European Union tightening import restrictions, China has become the main supplier of these crucial tools for metal milling with extreme precision. Consequently, Chinese-origin CNC devices constituted 57% of Russia’s imports by value in July, a stark rise from 12% before the war.
MILITARY & TECH
Netherlands Plans to Send 24 F-16 Fighter Jets to Ukraine - Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren
The Netherlands Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren said, in an interview with Ukrinform that her country plans to provide Ukraine with a total of 24 F-16 fighter jets. The first deliveries should begin in the summer of 2024.
"In total, we are going to hand over 24 F-16 fighters. They will be handed over to Ukraine as soon as everything is ready. This moment depends on the training of Ukrainian pilots and technicians, as well as on the infrastructure," Ollongren said.
According to her, the transfer of fighter jets to the Ukrainian military is a joint effort with Ukraine, Denmark, the United States, and other countries.
Denmark, Norway and Belgium have also pledged F-16s to Ukraine.
Grumpy here — Recently there has been much deserved criticism from Ukraine regarding the glacial response of the West in regards to Ukraine’s priorities. F-16s were badly needed - in the summer of 2023, now with the US cutting off military aid Ukraine is barely able to hold their positions on the front line in the face of massed Russian assaults while the West’s failure to provide Ukraine with adequate supplies of artillery ammunition allows the Russians to inch forward. Meanwhile a continued lack of sufficient air defence systems has permitted Russia to once again pound Ukraine’s cities and destroy critical infrastructure.
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