UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-01-21
Slava Ukraini! Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 40 sources daily much of which ends up in the script. I will make this Draft available here for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its situation update at 06:00 on Jan. 21 stated that it was day 697 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
During the past day, 80 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 3 missile strikes, 4 air strikes, and 58 MLRS attacks across the positions of our troops and settlements. As a result of the Russian attacks, unfortunately, there are dead and wounded among the civilian population. Destruction and damage to residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure.
Russian Federation escalates assaults due to freezing ground conditions, but faces mounting losses
The UK Ministry of Defence in it’s Jan. 21 intelligence update stated that over the past two weeks, Russia has intensified its attacks on the Ukrainian front. However, amid this, the losses of the Russian army have increased.
The report noted that, according to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as of January 19, the number of Russian shelling on the front line has increased by 27% compared to the previous day. Data for the period from January 14 to 18 confirm this growth.
As highlighted by British intelligence, during these five days, the number of losses in military equipment from the Russian side has increased by 88%, and tank losses have risen by 95%. Losses in personnel during the same period have increased by 15%.
"This data points toward a steady increase in the intensity of Russian offensive activity across the front over the past two weeks. A key enabler for this is highly likely the freezing ground conditions, which allow cross-country movement of armoured vehicles," according to the summary.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group is responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine.
Kup’yans’k axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 21 attacks of the enemy near the settlements of Synkivka, Petropavlivka, and Stel’makhivka (Kharkiv oblast).
Lyman axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 6 attacks of the occupiers near Terny, Yampovlivka (Luhansk oblast) and 7 attacks near the Serebryansky forest and Bilogorivka (Donetsk oblast).
Bakhmut axis: Ukrainian forces repelled 8 attacks near Bohdanivka, Klishchiivka and Andriivka (Donetsk oblast)
The Tavria operational-strategic group is responsible for the Avdiivka, Mar’inka, Shaktars’ke, and Zaporizhzhia axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.
Avdiivka axis: Ukrainian defenders continue to hold back the enemy who keeps trying to encircle Avdiivka. AFU soldiers are standing their ground and inflicting major losses on the invaders. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 11 enemy attacks near Avdiivka, and 12 near Sjeverne, Vodiane, Pervomais’ke and Nevel’s’ke (Donetsk oblast).
Mar’inka axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the occupiers in the vicinities of Heorhiivka, Mar’inka and Novomykhailivka (Donetsk oblast). Troops repelled 6 attacks in that area
Shakhtarske axis: The enemy did not conduct any offensive (assault) operations.
Zaporizhzhia axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 1 attack west of Verbove, (Zaporizhzhia oblast).
The Odesa operational-strategic group is responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.
Kherson axis: Ukrainian defenders continue to expand the bridgehead. Despite significant losses, the enemy does not abandon its attempts to dislodge Ukrainian troops from their positions. Over the past day, the enemy carried 6 unsuccessful assaults on the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Russia claims Ukraine shelled a market in the occupied city of Donetsk
Reportedly at least 25 people were killed and 20 more injured in a shelling attack on a market in the Kirovskyi district of Russian-occupied Donetsk, according to Moscow-installed local authorities. The attack occurred around 10 AM on Jan. 21.
Russia was quick to blame Ukraine for the attack but this has not been confirmed at this time. The Ukrainian Armed Forces, unlike the Russians do not usually make a habit of shelling civilian areas.
Conveniently Russia announced this shelling will be one of the topics at at the upcoming UN Security Council meeting on Ukraine with the participation of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.
THE HOME FRONT
Demonstrations in support of Ukrainian PoWs held in cities across Ukraine
Ukrinform reports that Relatives of Ukrainian prisoners of war (PoWs) have been holding demonstrations in support of them in cities across Ukraine as part of an initiative called Don’t be silent! Captivity kills!
Around 100 people held signs that read "Give them back their freedom! Don’t be silent! Free Azov!", "Fight for them like they fought for you!", "We are free thanks to those who are now in captivity" and "Ukraine is waiting for its captive heroes to come back home".
Demonstrations in support of Ukrainian PoWs were held in 12 Ukrainian cities, including Odesa, Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi, Kharkiv, Pavlohrad, Dnipro, Chernivtsi and Kremenchuk, on 19-21 January.
THE RUSSIAN WORLD
Russian seaport terminal on fire
Thanks to Rob Gaudette for the additional research on this one.
The terminal of the Russian Novatek natural gas company caught on fire in the port of Ust-Luga in the Leningrad region, regional governor Alexander Drozdenko announced on Telegram. Novatek is the largest independent natural gas producer in Russia.
The governor stated that no casualties have been reported but other Russian media sources suggested that 150 people were evacuated. A high-alert regime was introduced in the Kingiseppsky district. The cause of the fire has not yet been determined, but Telegram channel Baza, which is connected to the russian security services, confirmed residents heard the sounds of drones followed by explosions.
The Russian propaganda outlet TASS and other state media said the cause of the fire has not been announced, but Russian Telegram channel Fontanka also reports that two drones were detected.
"The air defense forces shortly before the fire in Ust-Luga detected two UAVs flying towards Petersburg. During their approach to the city, they changed course and headed towards the Kingiseppsky district of the Leningrad region. Around 3:20, they attacked the Novatek gas storage facility," reported on the Telegram channel.
Allow me to add as a subject matter expert that pouring water on a natural gas fire will never extinguish it.
Novatek is Russia's largest producer of liquified natural gas. The U.S. introduced sanctions against one of Novatek's major production entities, the Arctic LNG-2 (liquified natural gas) project, for which it has a 60% share.
Assuming they were launched from Ukrainian territory, the drones had to travel at least 900 kilometers to reach their targets.
This attack and others like it could have enormous consequences for Russia, and its war effort. We at The People’s Media are investigating and will elaborate as information becomes clearer.
Over the past four days, Ukraine has struck an inordinate number of strategic targets inside russia. The map we’ve created below shows the frequency and depth with which Ukraine has been able to target key military infrastructure.
Bloomberg later reported that Russia’s Novatek PJSC has halted fuels production at a plant at the Baltic Sea port of Ust-Luga following the fire.
Novatek’s Ust-Luga complex processes gas condensate into naphtha, jet fuel and gasoil, and ships the petroleum products for export to overseas markets. In 2022, the facility processed almost 7 million tons of gas condensate, according to Novatek.
Ukraine targets Russian military plant in Tula
Ukraine on Sunday confirmed it carried out a drone attack on a Russian military plant in Tula, targeting the production facility for air defense systems, including the “Pantsir-S” anti-aircraft defense systems.
The Ukrainian drone attack on the “Shcheglovsky Val” plant in Tula, a key facility responsible for manufacturing the “Pantsir-S” air defense systems, combat modules for armored vehicles, and anti-tank missile complexes, notably the “Kornet,” left a fire in one of the production facility,
“This was a planned operation by the Ukrainian Defense Intelligence Directorate (HUR). Targets in Tula were successfully hit,” stated an official source.
The precision strike on the Tula plant signifies Ukraine’s strategic approach in targeting specific military assets. The “Pantsir-S” systems manufactured at the Tula plant have played a role in Russia’s air defense capabilities, making the facility a valuable target for disrupting the adversary’s defense infrastructure.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
Budanov: North Korea currently Russia's largest arms supplier
North Korea is currently Russia's largest arms supplier, Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR) chief Kyrylo Budanov told the Financial Times in an interview published on Jan. 21.
North Korea has transferred "a significant amount" of artillery ammunition to Russia, according to Budanov. "This allowed Russia to breathe a little,” Budanov said. “Without (North Korea's) help, the situation would have been catastrophic.”
Russia has been struggling to keep up with the production of its weapons and munitions at a rate that matches their usage on the front. As a result, they have been compelled to seek military assistance from countries such as North Korea. "This has always been considered beneath them, it’s an indignity," Budanov said.
Moscow and Pyongyang have significantly increased their military ties since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
A spokesperson for the HUR previously said on Jan. 15 that North Korea has supplied Russia with around one million rounds of ammunition, mainly 122 mm and 152 mm artillery shells.
As reported both by Kyiv and Washington, Russia also used North Korean ballistic missiles against Ukraine for the first time in strikes against Kharkiv on Jan. 2.
North Korea's state news agency, KCNA, also reported on Jan. 21 that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is planning to visit North Korea in the near future.
Russian propaganda claims the West stands to lose at least $288 bln in assets if Russian assets seized
Reuters reports that Russia's state propaganda outlet RIA said on Sunday it had calculated that the West stood to lose assets and investments worth at least $288 billion if it confiscated frozen Russian assets to help rebuild Ukraine and Moscow then retaliated.
After President Vladimir Putin sent forces into Ukraine in February 2022, the U.S. and its allies prohibited transactions with Russia's central bank and finance ministry, blocking around $300 billion of sovereign Russian assets in the West.
U.S. and British officials have worked in recent months to jumpstart efforts to confiscate Russian assets immobilized in Belgium and other European cities in order to help reconstruction in Ukraine, parts of which lie in ruins.
They hope Group of Seven leaders will agree to issue a stronger statement of intent when they meet in late February, around the second anniversary of Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.
Russia has accused Washington of trying to strong-arm countries in Europe, where most of the Russian assets are, into signing up to similar measures, and the Kremlin has said that Moscow has a list of U.S., European and other assets that would be confiscated if Western countries press ahead.
RIA cited data which it said showed that direct investment by the European Union, the G7 nations, Australia and Switzerland in the Russian economy at the end of 2022 totalled $288 billion.
It said EU nations held $223.3 billion of the assets, of which $98.3 billion was formally held by Cyprus, $50.1 billion by the Netherlands and $17.3 billion by Germany.
It said the top five European investors in the Russian economy also included France with assets and investments worth $16.6 billion and Italy with $12.9 billion.
Among the G7 countries, it named Britain as one of the largest investors, citing data at the end of 2021 which showed British assets in Russia were worth about $18.9 billion.
It said the United States had $9.6 billion worth of Russian assets at the end of 2022, Japan $4.6 billion and Canada $2.9 billion.
Switzerland and Norway, which RIA said usually signed up to anti-Russian measures, had $28.5 billion and $139 million respectively at the end of 2022, it said, while data showed Australia had $683 million invested at the end of last year.
Reuters could not verify the data cited by RIA.
It would seem Putin and company are getting very worried.
It should be noted that many of those supposed international assets in Russia were sold at the beginning of the full scale invasion and others have simply been written off or seized by Moscow.
MILITARY & TECH
Video Games Helped Ukrainian Bradley Gunner Win Duel With Russian T-90M Tank
The War Zone released an interesting interview on Jan. 20 with the gunner of a Ukrainian Bradley Fighting Vehicle whose attack on a Russian T-90M Breakthrough tank was captured in a viral video. The gunner credits playing video games helped prepare him for that engagement.
In an interview with the Ukrainian TCH media outlet, that soldier, identified only as “Serhiy,” explained he’d just recently returned to Ukraine in December from Bradley training in Germany. Also the vehicle commander, he and his driver, Oleksandr, were only on their second mission together. Members of the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade, their job was to protect troops in a trench under fire from Russian tanks.
You can read all about the Bradley and what it brings to the fight in Ukraine in this recent article of the War Zone.
Going up against a heavily armored T-90M “Breakthrough” tank, Russia's most advanced frontline tank armed with a 125mm cannon, with the Bradley's 25mm chain gun was risky, said Serhiy.
Just last week in a speech Putin was bragging about how the T-90 M was the most advanced combat tank in the world (he seems to have erased the failed T-14 Armata project completely from his memory) Putin claimed NATO feared the mighty T-90 - it seems not…
“Yes, it was very scary,” he said. “But I think we did well.”
“I can’t express what it means to see a tank in the sights,” said Serhiy. “In training, I was saying, ‘God forbid I see a tank in the sights.’ It so happened that I did, and very close.”
“There was another crew that came first. It didn’t work out, so we had to muster up the courage and go.”
Serhiy didn’t explain what happened to that other Bradley, which is seen on the second video we wrote about yesterday, which you can see below.
Regardless, Serhiy’s Bradley took over the job of attacking the tank.
“We fired with all we could” with the Bradley's Bushmaster M242 25mm automatic cannon's armor piercing rounds.
Then there was a problem with those rounds, he said, without offering details. This is when his experience with video games kicked in.
“But as I played video games, I remembered everything. Both how to hit and where. I could stop him at any cost.”
Confirming what two armor experts told us after seeing a video of the battle, Serhiy said that he switched to another type of round and began aiming for the tank’s optics. He didn’t specify what kind of round, but as our experts said, the Bradleys usually have anti-armor and high explosive rounds.
“Due to issues with anti-armor, I started blinding him so he couldn’t leave,” said Serhiy. As we suspected, he achieved a mission kill on the tank by knocking out its optics.
I would like to add the composure it would take while staring down the 125mm barrel of a main battle tank to think of targeting the tank's optics is amazing.
That’s it for today’s Draft folks if you would like to keep up with events in Ukraine daily please consider subscribing, its free!
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