UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-03-15
Slava Ukraini! Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 40 sources daily much of which ends up in the script. I will make this Draft available here for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its situation update at 06:00 on Mar. 15 stated that it was day 751 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
During the past day, 76 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 16 missile strikes, 130 air strikes, and 65 MLRS attacks across the positions of our troops and settlements. As a result of the Russian attacks, unfortunately, there are dead and wounded among the civilian population. Destruction and damage to residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line.
Air Force Daily Report
The Ukrainian Air Force in its situation update at 06:00 stated that during the previous day it launched air strikes on 4 concentrations of enemy troops.
The Russians attacked Ukraine with 27 Shahed drones on the night of Mar. 15, Ukraine’s air defence forces destroyed all of them.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kup’yans’k axis: The enemy did not conduct any offensive (assault) operations in this area. Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold their positions.
Lyman axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 16 attacks near Terny, Yampolivka, and Rozdolivka (Donetsk oblast) plus Bilhorivka (Luhansk oblast)
Bakhmut axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 5 attacks near Bohdanivka, Ivanivske and Klishchiivka (Donetsk oblast).
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the Avdiivka, Novopavlivka, and Orikhiv axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Avdiivka axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 20 enemy attacks near Berdychi, Orlivka, Tonen’ke and Pervomais’ke (Donetsk oblast).
Novopavlivka axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the enemy in the vicinities of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Novomykhailivka, and west of Verbove (Donetsk oblast). the enemy supported by aviation made 24 attempts to break through the defense of Ukrainian troops in that area.
Orikhiv axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 7 attacks near Robotyne, northwest of Verbove and south of Staromaiors’ke (Zaporizhzhia oblast).
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Kherson axis: Ukrainian defenders continue to maintain their positions. Over the past day, the enemy carried out 1 unsuccessful assault on the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces on the left bank of the Dnipro River.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Central Asian Migrants Forced Into Voting in the Temporarily Occupied Territories
In regions under temporary russian control, Central Asian migrants are being directed towards designated polling stations, National Resistance Center of Ukraine reports.
Commencing March 15, a ludicrous election unfolds in these territories, disregarding the wishes of the indigenous population. To inflate voter turnout, the russian forces permit voting without requiring passports and intend to orchestrate migrant participation through construction companies.
Since late 2022, migrants have been systematically relocated to these temporarily occupied territories, with their population surpassing 100,000. Foreign individuals are enticed with an additional day off in exchange for visiting the polling stations.
THE HOME FRONT
Missile attack on Odesa, 16 dead 55 injured
Russia attacked Odesa in Ukraine's south with missiles during the day on 15 March. Explosions rang out shortly after the air-raid warning was issued, Suspilne reported. At 11:04, the Air Force warned that a missile was heading towards Odesa, followed shortly by the announcement of a general ballistic missile threat to the country’s south.
Oleh Kiper, the Head of Odesa Oblast Military Administration, urged city residents to seek shelter.
The all-clear sounded at 11:47. Kiper reported that there were casualties in the Russian missile attack on Odesa. All emergency services are working at the scene.
The death toll from a Russian rocket attack has risen to 16, reported the head of Odesa OVA Oleg Kiper reported as of 16:20. Another 55 people with injuries at the hospital
Rheinmetall plans to set up four factories in Ukraine
German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall said on Thursday it plans to set up at least four factories in Ukraine, as it targets a record €10bn ($10.9bn) in sales this year, The Guardian reports.
The Ukraine war has boosted Germany’s weapons industry as countries seek to re-arm in the face of the growing threat from Russia, and soaring demand last year propelled Rheinmetall on to the blue-chip DAX index.
The company said the factories in Ukraine – which has been suffering from ammunition shortages as Moscow makes battlefield gains – would be for producing shells, military vehicles, gunpowder and anti-aircraft weapons.
“Ukraine is now an important partner for us, where we see a potential of between €2-3bn [in sales] per year,” Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger said at the presentation of the company’s 2023 results.
The Duesseldorf-based group reported record sales of €7.2bn last year, and is aiming to top €10bn in 2024. The company’s shares soared 5% in Frankfurt after the results were announced.
Germany’s largest manufacturer of military equipment had already announced an agreement with a Ukrainian company in February to build artillery shells in Ukraine.
The groundbreaking will take place soon for the plant – in an undisclosed location – and it will be modelled on an ammunition factory that Rheinmetall is building in Germany. The company already operates a joint venture in Ukraine for repairing military vehicles.
Rheinmetall is also going to build a factory in Lithuania, where Germany plans to deploy a brigade-sized military unit on a permanent basis to help secure Nato’s eastern flank.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Ukrainian Defence Intelligence drones hit oil refinery in Russia's Kaluga Oblast
Sources in Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (HUR) report that Ukrainian drones attacked the Pervyy Zavod (lit. "First Plant") oil refinery in Russia's Kaluga Oblast on the night of 14-15 March. The source said the UAVs successfully reached their target and struck it.
In the past three months, Ukraine has intensified its drone attacks against the Russian oil industry. Over the past week, Ukraine has targeted at least four Russian oil facilities with drone attacks, aiming to hit the core of Russia’s economy over two years into Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The Kaluga refinery, located about 65 kilometers (40 miles) from Moscow, is a smaller facility with a processing capacity of 1.2 million tons per year or roughly 24,000 barrels per day, Reuters reported.
Russian authorities block evacuation in Belgorod Oblast as anti-Kremlin militia advances into Russia
Following reports that a coalition of Russian dissident fighters had entered Russia’s border territory on Mar. 12 to liberate it from the “criminal dictatorial regime” in the Russian Federation. Andrii Yusov, a representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense (HUR), said on Mar. 14 that Russian authorities were blocking the evacuation of civilians from Russia’s Belgorod Oblast amid a border breach by Russian anti-Kremlin militia, He claimed the regime was using residents as a “human shield,”
Yusov, stated this information based on intercepted communications between Russian security forces as well as between local residents. These communications indicate that “security forces surround transportation hubs, there are roadblocks, and threats are being made.”
Despite the blockade, Yusov noted that evacuation is still being carried out in some areas, including the town of Grayvoron on the border with Ukraine.
The anti-Kremlin battalions have repeatedly urged residents of the Belgorod and Kursk oblasts to evacuate as they were “forced to strike at military positions located in the cities of Belgorod and Kursk.”
WORLD NEWS
EU moves towards using €27bn in profit from frozen Russian assets for Ukraine
EU leaders are to take a significant step towards confiscating a potential €27bn in profit generated over the next four years by Russian state assets frozen in Europe to help fund the war effort in Ukraine. The Guardian reported on Mar. 14.
Officials at the European Commission are poised to put forward what they believe is a legally robust proposal to be considered by member states, possibly before a meeting of prime ministers in Brussels next Thursday.
About $300bn belonging to the Russian central bank has been frozen in the west, largely in foreign currency, gold and government bonds. About 70% of these are held in the Belgian central securities depository Euroclear, which is holding the equivalent of €190bn.
Deposits held in Europe are likely to generate between €15bn and €20bn in after-tax profits between now and the end of 2027, the end of the EU’s current financial cycle, depending on the evolution of global interest rates, a senior EU official said.
This year they are expected to generate between €2bn and €3bn in profits, depending on potential interest rate changes – money that could then go straight to Ukraine.
While officials are hopeful of an agreement on seizing the profits, they do not expect a deal yet on how the money should be used, because some states are against using it to fund Ukraine’s military, preferring that the cash be spent on reconstruction and humanitarian efforts
Macron – The Kremlin regime is an enemy.
French President Emmanuel Macron in an interview with the TV channels TF1 and France 2 on the evening of Mar. 14 has insisted that he does not seek an escalation of Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine, but says he considers Russia and the Kremlin regime to be "enemies" of France.
He said that if Russia wins the war, "Europe’s credibility will be reduced to zero".
"Do you think that the Poles, the Lithuanians, the Estonians, the Romanians and the Bulgarians could remain at peace for a second? Let alone Moldova, which admittedly is not a member of the European Union today, but which would be under threat at any second," he added.
"Today, Russia is definitely an enemy. The Kremlin regime is an enemy. As I have always said, we are not waging a war against Russia and the Russian people, and we are supporting Ukraine," the French president said.
"We are doing everything we can to help Ukraine defeat Russia, because I will say it very simply: there can be no lasting peace if there is no sovereignty, if there is no return to Ukraine’s internationally recognised borders, including Crimea," he added.
Latvia plans to deport hundreds of Russians
Latvia’s the Immigration Authority has provided the border service with data on about 800 Russians who are not entitled to stay in the country, if they are still in the country — they are to be deported. Suspilne reports.
"At present, 800 people have not been granted the right to stay in Latvia. They did not apply for permanent or temporary residence... We provided information about these persons to the State Border Guard Service for further verification. In the coming weeks, it will be clear whether these people are still in Latvia. If they are, 30-day departure orders will be issued.
— Madara Puke, Immigration Authority spokesperson
According to her, Russian citizens who did not pass the Latvian language exam could apply for a temporary residence permit for two years, after which their knowledge of the Latvian language will again check and decide whether they will remain in the country.
Formerly the Constitutional Court of Latvia recognized the legal requirement to pass an exam in the Latvian language for Russians, who were previously citizens of the country and had a permanent residence permit.
Czech PM reluctant to discuss Ukraine ammunition deal details in presence of Slovak PM
Prime Minister of the Czech Republic Petr Fiala allegedly adjusted his talking points with allies regarding the initiative to procure 800,000 artillery rounds for Ukraine after learning that the pro-Russian Prime Minister of Slovakia, Robert Fico, would also be present at the table. Aktualne reported.
Three weeks ago in Paris, French President Emmanuel Macron convened a meeting of allies to exchange views on how to address Ukraine's most urgent needs collectively.
Initially, Fiala planned to provide more details on where the Czech Republic "found" 800,000 artillery rounds that could be purchased for Ukraine from third countries, including their origin and cost.
At first, around 15 leaders were expected to attend the meeting, but it later became known that more would join, including Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, who regularly makes openly anti-Ukrainian statements. Upon learning that Fico was invited, Fiala allegedly removed several details from his initial speech, fearing that strategically important information might leak to Moscow through the Slovak Prime Minister.
MILITARY & TECH
American Drone Supplier Anduril Showcased its new Altius-700M in Action
Anduril, a U.S.-based drone company, has presented a video with live fire testing of its latest product, Altius-700M loitering munition. These are the first tests for this weapon, considered long-range in its class, and they were conducted back in September 2023, now becoming public. Defence Express reports.
Notably, during the live firing at the Dugway proving ground in Utah, the dummy target was a quite realistically-looking Buk-M2 air defense system of russian design.
The Altius 600 is a reconnaissance drone that has already made a name for itself during its operation by Ukrainian Armed Forces. More versatile and also coming in an attack version, the Altius-600, however, weighs 12 kg.
In the video, Altius-700M performs a precise strike, its warhead of 15 kg is comparable in power to that of an AGM-114 Hellfire anti-tank missile. What makes a difference, though, is the operating range up to 160 km, with endurance to stay up in the air for 75 minutes.
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