UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-01-29
Slava Ukraini! Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 40 sources daily much of which ends up in the script. I will make this Draft available here for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its situation update at 06:00 on Jan. 29 stated that it was day 705 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
During the past day, 74 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 7 missile strikes, 10 air strikes, and 86 MLRS attacks across the positions of our troops and settlements. As a result of the Russian attacks, unfortunately, there are dead and wounded among the civilian population. Destruction and damage to residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure.
Russia has lost 365 tanks and 700 armoured vehicles since the start of its winter offensive
The UK Ministry of Defence in its Jan. 29 Intelligence Update stated that Russian armoured vehicle losses were lower in 2023 than they had been in 2022. However, since early October 2023, Russian Ground Forces (RGF) have been on the offensive in eastern Ukraine. During this period, Russian armoured vehicle losses increased, and the RGF have likely lost up to 365 tanks and 700 armoured combat vehicles but only achieved minor territorial gains.
The MOD estimates Russia can probably generate at least 100 main battle tanks a month and therefore retains the capacity to replace battlefield losses and continue this level of offensive activity for the foreseeable future.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group is responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine.
Kup’yans’k axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 4 attacks of the enemy near the settlement Synkivka and east of Pishchane(Kharkiv oblast)
Lyman axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 6 attacks near Terny, and Yampolivka (Donetsk oblast)
Bakhmut axis: Ukrainian forces repelled 4 attacks near Bohdanivka and Ivanivske (Donetsk oblast)
The Tavria operational-strategic group is responsible for the Avdiivka, Mar’inka, Shaktars’ke, and Zaporizhzhia axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.
Avdiivka axis: Ukrainian defenders continue to hold back the enemy who keeps trying to encircle Avdiivka. AFU soldiers are standing their ground and inflicting major losses on the invaders. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 21 enemy attacks near Ocheretyne, Novobakhmutivka, Stepove, Avdiivka, and 5 near Pervomais’ke and Nevel’s’ke (Donetsk oblast).
Mar’inka axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the occupiers in the vicinities of Heorhiivka, Pobjeda and Novomykhailivka (Donetsk oblast). Troops repelled 22 attacks in that area.
Shakhtarske axis: The enemy did not conduct any offensive (assault) operations.
Zaporizhzhia axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 1 attack north of Pryyutne (Zaporizhzhia oblast).
The Odesa operational-strategic group is responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.
Kherson axis: Ukrainian defenders continue to expand the bridgehead. Despite significant losses, the enemy does not abandon its attempts to dislodge Ukrainian troops from their positions. Over the past day, the enemy carried 8 unsuccessful assaults on the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
'Significant Russian Losses' As Kyiv Aims to Expand Dnipro Foothold
Ukraine’s military has said it is trying to expand its foothold on the Russian-occupied eastern bank of the Dnipro river, with Russian forces offering “fierce resistance” despite suffering “significant losses.”
For more than three months now, Ukrainian Marines have been deeply dug-in and – backed by masses of strike drones – have managed to hold ground first captured in mid-October.
Pushing Russian forces back from the river's shores has been a priority for Kyiv, which has been trying to protect the city of Kherson from Russian shelling.
But Ukraine’s forces have so far struggled to make any further substantial gains inland.
Ukraine will “continue measures aimed at expanding its bridgehead” on the left (eastern) bank of the Dnipro, the army said in a daily briefing on Monday.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Zelenskyy reveals size of Ukrainian Defense Forces
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced the number of Ukrainian troops in an interview with the German TV channel ARD. According to him, it is about 880 thousand.
"...We have 880 thousand. We have a million-strong army. And at the same time, we have 30 million people now, 30 million people are working now, and maybe even a little more. I cannot say the exact number," Zelensky said.
At the same time, he clarified that today it is not known exactly how many people have left since the beginning of Russia's full-scale war, naming a figure in the range of 6.5-7.5 million.
"So we are talking about all the people who are in Ukraine. And they all defend Europe and the world. Absolutely. At their workplaces," Zelenskyy added.
US inspectors arrive in Kyiv to oversee military aid usage
US auditors have travelled to Kyiv to review the spending of American military assistance to Ukraine, as no violations have been identified previously, and the Pentagon continues to ensure taxpayer funds are used appropriately. US Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget A. Brink reported on Twitter
On 29 January, general inspectors from the US Department of Defense, State Department, and Agency for International Development (USAID) arrived in Kyiv to help audit Ukraine’s usage of American military assistance.
THE RUSSIAN WORLD
Russian Presidential candidate Boris Nadezhdin makes the Kremlin nervous.
There is no question who the official winner of Russia’s upcoming presidential election will be. But there remains the mystery: Why has Boris Nadezhdin, a 60-year-old former lawmaker whose campaign centres around his opposition to Putin and the war, been allowed to make it this far?
Meduza reports it was somewhat of an accident — and now the Putin administration wants Nadezhdin to leave the race of his own accord. But insiders from the presidential hopeful’s campaign say he has no intention of doing so.
It seems Putin’s party were keen to find a “liberal” candidate known to the west but unknown in Russia who then would be drubbed in an election landslide demonstrating that “western ideals” are unpopular in Russia.
Around the same time, politician Boris Nadezhdin, a former associate of murdered opposition leader Boris Nemtsov announced his own plans to run.
Nadezhdin has occasionally represented Russia’s “liberal opposition” on Russian state television in recent years, (something that genuine opposition figures are generally not allowed to do.)
Grumpy’s take – Hmmmmm, got it, so like the tame “liberals” they bring on Fox News panels Nadezhdin isn’t a liberal, he just plays one on TV
NEWS WORLDWIDE
Zelenskyy calls on Germany to rally European aid
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called on Berlin to rally EU partners to provide his country with more aid, amid growing concerns that help from the US, the biggest contributor, could end.
Zelenskyy, responding to the uncertainty as US President Joe Biden continues to face Republican resistance to further support for Ukraine, told German public broadcaster ARD that most US politicians supported Kyiv, and that resistance to the aid was coming from merely a handful of "individual Republicans."
However, he did push for more action from Berlin.
Kyiv would win faster if allowed to hit deep inside Russia with Western weapons
Ukrainian Navy Commander Oleksii Neizhpapa told Sky News that the state of the war would have been very different if allies had not given restrictions to Kyiv on the use of Western weapons.
In an interview published on Jan. 27, Vice Admiral Neizhpapa signalled Kyiv would be able to win the war faster if it had permission to fire Western weapons against targets inside Russia.
"Putin behaves like a small-scale gangster who knows that if he is matched blow for blow, he will not start a fight... If he understands that Ukraine can fight back and make him really feel pain, of course, he will give all this up. This is all… We must have the capabilities to make sure that Russia will give up forever the thought of even looking in Ukraine's direction, including at sea,"
— Vice Admiral Oleksii Neizhpapa, Commander of the Ukrainian Navy
Throughout the full-scale war, Ukraine has regularly struck Russia's Black Sea fleet, with the best-known strike being the sinking of the Russian navy missile cruiser Moskva, estimated to be worth $750 million in April 2022.
In October 2023, U.K. Armed Forces Minister James Heappey said that Ukraine's recent attacks on Russia's Black Sea Fleet have led to the "functional defeat" of the Russian Navy in the Black Sea.
The Russian Black Sea Fleet, based in occupied Crimea, suffered a major blow in September 2023, including strikes on a command post on Sept. 20 and on its headquarters on Sept. 22.
Ukraine claimed that the latter killed 34 Russian officers, including the fleet's commander, and injured 105 more soldiers.
These strikes have caused "almost certainly severe" damage to the fleet, the U.K. Defense Ministry reported on Sept. 26. The fleet's ability to continue wider regional security patrols and enforce its de facto blockade of Ukrainian ports is therefore likely reduced, it added.
Neizhpapa also when asked if the Ukrainian Navy would be interested to accept two UK Type 23 frigates that the UK is considering decommissioning due to a shortage of sailors, esponded:
"Of course, the Navy needs warships, because we understand that there is no navy without ships. This is why, if such a decision is taken, concerning the possibility of handing over two frigates to the [Ukrainian] Navy, we will be very happy."
India wants to distance itself from Russia as an arms supplier
Reuters reported on Jan. 28 that several unnamed Indian government sources stated that India wants to distance itself from Russia, its largest arms supplier, because the war in Ukraine has limited Russia’s ability to provide India with munitions and spares. However sources say India must step carefully to avoid pushing Moscow closer to China.
The world's biggest arms importer is slowly turning West as the United States looks to strengthen ties in the Indo-Pacific region, hoping to contain an ascendant China by weaning the South Asian nation off a traditional dependence on Russia.
Russia supplied 65% of India's weapons purchases of more than $60 billion during the last two decades, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, but the Ukraine war hastened the impetus to diversify its weapons base.
"We are not likely to sign any major military deal with Russia," said Nandan Unnikrishnan, a Russia expert at New Delhi think tank the Observer Research Foundation. "That would be a red line for Washington."
This comes despite Moscow's offers, including platforms such as the most advanced Kamov helicopters and Sukhoi and MiG fighter jets, with the added fillip of joint manufacturing in India.
Last year, India and the United States signed a deal for General Electric to produce engines in India to power its fighter jets, the first such U.S. concession to a non-ally.
They also plan to "fast-track" technology co-operation and co-production in areas ranging from air combat to intelligence, they said at the time.
Further driving India's ties with the United States is disquiet over China, as their troops are embroiled in a standoff on their Himalayan frontier since 2020, when one of their bloodiest clashes in five decades killed 24 soldiers.
MILITARY & TECH
Greece prepares military aid package for Ukraine following US request
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken asked Greece to give the weapons to Ukraine in a letter to Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis.
Blinken’s letter said that in return, the US will prioritise providing the Greek Air Force with a KC-135 military transport aircraft, which will increase the operational capabilities of the Greek fighter jet fleet, thus enabling Greece to sell or donate to Ukraine equipment that is not needed by its Armed Forces. The US agreed to provide funding of up to US$200 million for this.
The Greek government has instructed the responsible agencies to prepare a military aid package for Ukraine, which will include weapons and equipment no longer in use by the Greek armed forces.
The Greek political and military leadership has instructed the relevant agencies to give outdated weapons and equipment no longer used by the Greek army to Ukraine in order to secure resources for acquiring new military equipment.
Greece currently has at its disposal Soviet air defence systems such as Tor, Osa, S-300, and ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft systems that are no longer in use. It is not yet known which of these will be transferred to Ukraine.
Below are representative Open source photos of all 4 systems courtesy of Wikimedia:
Ukraine's Defence Ministry says France will be able to provide Ukraine with 3,000 155mm projectiles per month
Lieutenant General Ivan Havryliuk, Ukraine's Deputy Minister of Defence, who headed the Ukrainian delegation during the first meeting of the Artillery Coalition in Paris, said in an interview with NV.
He said that a very substantive conversation with partners took place in Paris (the opening of the Artillery Coalition was attended by representatives of 22 countries)
In particular, they discussed the provision of artillery, projectiles, and spare parts for artillery systems or their production in Ukraine, improving the intelligence and fire control system of artillery units, and organising the repair of artillery weapons.
Regarding 155mm projectiles for French artillery systems, Sébastien Lecornu, French Armed Forces Minister, said that France will be able to provide the Ukrainian army with 3,000 projectiles per month.
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