UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-08-08
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 70 sources daily, much of which forms the basis of the script. While the Podcast is on hiatus I will make this Draft available here both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 22:00 on Aug 08 stated that day 896 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.
During the past day, 68 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 1 missile strikes, 50 air strikes, 674 drone strikes 3,682 artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deep into the territory of Ukraine.
Air Force Daily Report
On the night of August 8, 2024, the enemy hit Kharkiv Oblast with 2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles from Belgorod Oblast. - Russian Federation, by 2 X-59 guided air missiles from the airspace over the Sea of Azov and 4 strike UAVs of the "Shahed" type from Yeisk - Russian Federation.
As a result of anti-aircraft combat, mobile fire groups of the Defense Forces of Ukraine, anti-aircraft missile troops and EW units of the Air Force shot down two Kh-59 guided air missiles and 4 attack UAVs in the Odesa, Kherson and Kirovohrad regions.
The Kursk Incursion
The GSAFU stated the intensity of combat in the Sumy direction has increased. The enemy is actively applying aviation, helicopters, heavy weapons. However, with no success. Russia is suffering a significant loss. Ukrainian soldiers do everything possible to protect the civilian population.
ISW - Ukrainian Forces advance at least 10 km inside Kursk Oblast
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Aug 07 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment assessed that Ukrainian forces have made confirmed advances up to 10 kilometres into Russia's Kursk Oblast amid continued mechanised offensive operations on Russian territory on August 7. Geolocated footage published on August 6 and 7 shows that Ukrainian armoured vehicles have advanced to positions along the 38K-030 route about 10 kilometres from the international border.
The current confirmed extent and location of Ukrainian advances in Kursk Oblast indicate that Ukrainian forces have penetrated at least two Russian defensive lines and a stronghold.
A Russian insider source claimed that Ukrainian forces have seized 45 square kilometres of territory within Kursk Oblast since they launched the operation on August 6, and other Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces have captured 11 total settlements, including Nikolaevo-Daryino (1.5 kilometres north of the Sumy Oblast border), Darino (three kilometres north of the Sumy Oblast border), and Sverdlikovo (east of the Nikolaevo-Darino-Darino area), and are operating within Lyubimovka (eight kilometres north of the Sumy Oblast border).
Russian sources indicated that Ukrainian forces are trying to advance along the 38K-030 Sudzha-Korenovo highway, and a prominent Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed that by 1800 local time on August 7 Ukrainian forces had advanced both northwest and southeast along the highway and are now fighting on the outskirts of Korenovo (in the northwest direction) and Sudzha (in the southeast direction).
The Russian insider source and several other Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces fought for and seized the Sudzha checkpoint and the Sudzha gas distribution station (southwest of Sudzha along the 38K-004 highway, 500 metres from the Sumy-Kursk Oblast border).
Geolocated imagery posted on August 7 shows that Ukrainian forces captured over 40 Russian prisoners of war (POWs) at the Sudzha checkpoint, and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty's Russia service posted satellite imagery that shows heavy damage to buildings at the Sudzha checkpoint.
Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported on August 7 that an unspecified unit of the Chechyna-based 71st Motorized Rifle Regiment (58th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Southern Military District [SMD]) has deployed directly to the Sudzhenskyi Raion—generally consistent with some reports from Ukrainian and Russian sources that social media footage shows Chechen "Akhmat" units in the Sudzha area since over a week ago
Chechen units reportedly suffered very heavy losses in Ukrainian attacks in the Korenovo Raion on August 7.
Grumpy Here - Please keep in mind the situation on the ground changes and most of this information is now at least 12 hours old
The Kremlin's response to Ukrainian offensive activities in Kursk Oblast has so far been contradictory, as Russian officials are attempting to balance presenting the effort as a notable Ukrainian escalation with avoiding overstating its potential implications and risking domestic discontent.
Select Russian milbloggers heavily criticised the Russian military command for not detecting preparations for or preventing Ukrainian offensive operations into Kursk Oblast.
Several Russian milbloggers complained that Russian forces should have prevented the Ukrainian offensive operations into Kursk Oblast as Russian forces knew that Ukrainian forces had been accumulating forces and means in the area for the past several months.
Some of the milbloggers complained that the Russian military command's inadequate reaction was due to a lack of concern about the Ukrainian accumulations, unrealistic confidence in Russian defences in the border area, assumptions about Ukrainian forces' fatigue, or false reports about the situation.
A prominent Russian milblogger criticised Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov for not auditing the combat command system to remove ineffective commanders upon assuming his position as Minister of Defense and called for Russian authorities to punish incompetent commanders and liars. The milblogger further claimed that Ukrainian offensive operations in Kursk Oblast prove that the Russian military command made "strategic miscalculations" and that nepotism in the Russian military is protecting ineffective military officials.
Russia scrambles against Kursk incursion
The Russian Defence Ministry says its troops are "continuing to destroy" armed Ukrainian units using air strikes, rocket and artillery fire in the Kursk region, where Kyiv's forces made a significant incursion this week. DW reports.
Moscow says it is "thwarting attempts to break through" deeper.
A top official in Russia's Kursk region says fighting is continuing for a third day after Ukrainian troops smashed through the Russian border. The audacious attack has forced Moscow to call in reserves.
About 1,000 Ukrainian troops pushed through the frontier in the early hours of August 6 with tanks and armoured vehicles.
They were provided with cover by swarms of drones and pounding artillery, Russian officials said.
While Ukrainian officials haven't commented on the extent of the operation around the town of Sudzha, Kursk's acting deputy governor, Andrei Belostotsky said Russian forces are fighting to stop the Ukrainians from advancing further.
"The enemy has not advanced a single metre, on the contrary, it is retreating. The enemy's equipment and combat forces are being actively destroyed. We hope that in the near future ... the enemy will be stopped," state news agency RIA-Novosti reported Belostotsky as saying.
The independent US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW), however, said that "Ukrainian forces have made confirmed advances up to 10 kilometres (six miles) into Russia's Kursk Oblast." [ed. - as of Aug 07]
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday described the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk as a "large-scale provocation."
Grumpy Here: Meanwhile, things are going fine, I’m sure…
Russians forced to close three railway stations in Kursk Oblast due to hostilities
Russian propaganda sources are reporting that Russian Railways, a Russian state-owned railway company, has temporarily closed the Sudzha, Korenevo, and Psel stations in Kursk Oblast to passengers due to ongoing hostilities. Ukrainska Pravda reports.
Local authorities are reportedly carrying out additional infrastructure inspections and briefing staff in order to ensure traffic safety in Kursk Oblast.
Earlier, Russia's Defence Ministry confirmed the advance of supposedly Ukrainian forces in two districts of Kursk Oblast and noted that it had moved reserves to the border and was "attacking Ukrainian troops from the air".
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kharkiv axis: There were 8 Russian attacks, supported by aviation over the last day near Vovchansk and Tykhe.
Kupyansk axis: The enemy carried out 3 attacks against Ukrainian positions near Petropavlivka and Novoosynove
Lyman axis: Russia attacked 11 times unsuccessfully in the direction of settlements of Novoserhiivka, Makiivka, Nevske, Torske and the Serebryanskyy Forest.
Siversk axis: Russian forces carried out 5 unsuccessful assaults in the vicinity of Verkhnokamianske and Pereizne.
Kramatorsk axis: Russian forces carried out 5 offensive actions near Chasiv Yar.
Toretsk axis: There have been 8 Russian attacks over that last day with air support. All the efforts of the enemy were directed to the areas of Pivinchne, Toretsk, Zalizne and Nui-York.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk axis: The enemy conducted 11 attacks against Ukrainian defences in this area over the last day in the vicinity of Vozdvizhenka, Novooleksandrivka,Hrodivka and Yasnobrodivka
Kurakhove axis: Russian forces unsuccessfully tried to advance 4 times in the area of settlements and Paraskoviivka and Kostiantinivka.
Vremivka axis: In this sector the situation is under control, Russian forces made 2 attempts to attack Ukrainian positions near Vodiane
Orikhiv axis: The situation in this sector has not changed significantly. 1 enemy attack was repulsed over the last day in the vicinity of Robotyne
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Prydniprovsk axis: In this sector, over the last day Russian forces made 4 unsuccessful attempts to force Ukrainian units from their positions on the left bank of the Dnieper.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Russia strikes hospital in Nikopol, kills civilian
Russian forces attacked the city of Nikopol with artillery on Aug. 8, damaging a hospital and killing a 50-year-old man, The Kyiv Independent reported, citing Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Governor Serhii Lysak.
"Doctors fought for his life to the last. Unfortunately, they failed to save the wounded man," Lysak wrote on his Telegram.
Garages, cars, and power lines were also damaged in the strike, according to the governor.
Nikopol, just across from Russian-occupied Enerhodar and the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, is a regular target of Russian attacks. On Aug. 1, a 40-year-old woman and her 72-year-old mother were killed during a Russian artillery attack.
The Russian army regularly fires on the civilian infrastructure of Ukrainian cities, targeting hospitals, among other facilities.
Russia attacks a fire station in Nikopol
On the morning of Aug 08 Russian troops carried out a targeted attack by an unmanned aerial vehicle on the territory of the DSNS unit in Nikopol. As a result of the impact, the windows of the fire station were broken and rescue equipment was damaged. State Emergency Services reported.
Fortunately, the personnel of the fire and rescue unit were not injured.
Ukroboronprom is among the top 50 global defence companies
For the first time, JSC Ukroboronprom entered the top 50 global defence companies in terms of arms contracts. Militarnyi reported.
The rating was compiled by Defense News.
Every year, the publication compiles a report based on the revenues of companies that received defense contracts last year. This allows it to indirectly estimate the volume of orders, which are often non-public.
From 2022 to 2023, Ukroboronprom’s revenue grew by 72%, from $1.28 billion to $2.2 billion, which allowed it to jump 16 positions at once: from 65th to 49th place.
Ukroboronprom unites over a hundred state-owned multidisciplinary enterprises in various industries. However, some of them are currently under occupation or destroyed during a full-scale invasion.
Based on last year’s numbers, the Ukrainian concern came before the Polish state-owned arms company Polska Grupa Zbrojeniowa SA, which had revenues of $1.43 billion.
RUSSIAN WORLD
See Kursk Incursion section for the latest.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
Western insurers provide cover for Russian oil despite price cap concerns
A group of Western insurers have provided cover for tankers carrying Russian crude, keeping its oil flowing after many in the trade sector withdrew for fear of breaching the rules of a G7 price cap, data from traders and shippers shows. Reuters reported on Aug 08
The data seen by Reuters showed that five insurers, including American Club, Luxembourg-headquartered West of England and Norway's Gard, provided cover for 10 tankers that sailed from Russia to Asia this year.
American Club and West of England provided insurance for two vessels - the Gioiosa and the Orion I - that made similar voyages in early 2024.
Both vessels took on board crude from the state-owned Russian oil company Rosneft, opens new tab in Russia's Baltic and sailed to China, the data showed.
American Club said the ship, which flew the Panama flag, was on its cover list. West did not comment on specific tankers.
Norway's Gard, which data showed covered a separate vessel, also declined to comment on specific ships.
The three non-profit mutuals, who insure ships against oil pollution, injury and loss of life, say they are providing a service to their members.
The extent of the ongoing provision by Western insurers in covering specific Russian oil deals has not been previously reported since the cap was imposed in 2022 following the war in Ukraine.
The International Group (IG) of P&I Clubs - which provides insurance for 90% of the world's fleet - said in April the attestation process was flawed and risked exposing its members to breaches of the price cap.
The IG did not respond to a request for comment on the risks for this story.
Russia, China discuss barter trade as sanctions hamper payments
China may begin using barter trading schemes, three trade and payments sources told Reuters, with two expecting deals involving agriculture as soon as this autumn, as Moscow and Beijing try to limit using banking systems monitored by the United States. Reuters reports.
Bilateral payment delays were high on the agenda when President Vladimir Putin visited China in May and although workarounds have emerged, such as using small, regional Chinese banks whose activities are harder for Washington to detect, payment issues remain.
Barter trading would allow Moscow and Beijing to circumvent payment issues, reduce the visibility Western regulators have over their bilateral transactions, and limit currency risk.
Russia is developing regulations for barter trading and the Russian sources Reuters spoke to are working on the assumption that China is doing the same.
The sources, who requested anonymity due to the non-public nature of the information, are all closely involved in bilateral trade.
A top manager at a large Russian bank said a barter scheme was being prepared, but refused to disclose details. One source who works in payments said a trade with Russia exporting food products was under discussion.
MILITARY & TECH
Ukraine Will Get First Lynx IFV By the End of This Year, Rheinmetall Reports
Rheinmetall is one of the major suppliers of weapons for the Ukrainian Armed Forces and a promising defense partner poised to start implementing various business projects in Ukraine, Defense Express reports.
Headquartered in Germany, defence industry giant Rheinmetall has published a financial report for the first half of 2024. The post released on August 8 mentions achievements like sales growth, or a significant income increase secured by contracts on military equipment and weapons for the German Armed Forces, partners from EU and NATO, and also for Ukraine.
Defense Express highlights the key facts related to Ukraine, including a remark about Rheinmetall's progress establishing an armour plant on the territory of this country. Specifically, the company's projects in Ukraine were outlined in one of the presentation slides.
The most interesting part is the remark that the first Lynx infantry fighting vehicle is to be handed over by the end of 2024. The presentation does not explicitly specify whether the vehicles are being built at facilities deployed in Ukraine but there's a note saying the discussions on local production are underway.
The Lynx family has been designed as a highly protected tracked armoured vehicle to fill a gap identified in the market by Rheinmetall. Lynx was designed as a private venture by Rheinmetall to provide customers with a modern fighting vehicle that will be able to counter emerging near peer threats whilst maintaining the ability to conduct asymmetric or peace-keeping operations. It was first shown publicly in June 2016, and in the lighter KF31 configuration.
On 4 June 2018 Rheinmetall issued a press release informing that the larger Lynx KF41 would debut twice in different configurations at the upcoming Eurosatory defence exhibition later that month. Following the unveiling in IFV configuration on 12 June the vehicle was reconfigured as a command variant, which was unveiled on 13 June. The First configuration would be as an infantry fighting vehicle with the new Lance 2.0 turret, and then after refitting on site, configured as command variant.
Side note, the negotiations on the Ukrainian Armed Forces acquiring Lynx have been lasting for a while now. It became a hot topic back in spring–summer 2023 when Rheinmetall announced plans to open its factory producing armored vehicles in Ukraine and established a joint venture with Ukrainian Defense Industry JSC (UDI). In June 2024, Ukraine's Minister of Strategic Industries Oleksandr Kamyshin said the talks were ongoing but without a firm agreement yet. If secured, a "large number" of Lynx vehicles could be produced in 2025, he noted.
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