UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-04-12
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 60 sources daily, much of which forms the basis of the script. While the Podcast is on hiatus I will make this Draft available here both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its situation update at 06:00 on Apr. 12 stated that it was day 779 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
During the past day, 78 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 54 missile strikes,126 air strikes, and 95 MLRS attacks across the positions of our troops and settlements. As a result of the Russian attacks, unfortunately, there are dead and wounded among the civilian population. Destruction and damage to residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line.
Ukrainian missile forces struck 1 air defense device, 1 radio-electronic combat station and 2 areas of enemy personnel concentration.
Air Force Daily Report
The Ukrainian Air Force in its situation update at 06:00 stated that during the previous day they struck 12 areas of concentration of personnel, weapons and military equipment and 1 enemy anti-missile complex.
On the night of April 12, 2024, the enemy attacked 17 Shahed UAVs from Cape Chaud (TOT Ukrainian Crimea) and one X-59 cruise missile from the airspace of the temporarily occupied territory of Donetsk.
As a result of anti-aircraft combat by the aviation of the Air Force and the mobile fire groups of the Defense Forces of Ukraine, 16 Shahed UAV’s were shot down over the Mykolaiv, Odessa, Kherson, Dnipropetrovsk, Vinnytsia and Khmelnytsia oblasts.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kup’yans’k axis: The enemy did not conduct any offensive (assault) operations in this area. Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold their positions.
Lyman axis: The enemy did not conduct any offensive (assault) operations in this area. Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold their positions.
Bakhmut axis: Ukrainian troops repelled 29 Russian attacks, supported by aviation, in the vicinities of Bilohorivka (Luhansk oblast) Verkhnyokamianske, Vyimka, Rozdolivka, Ivanivskie, and Klishchiivka, (Donetsk oblast).
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the Avdiivka, Novopavlivka, and Orikhiv axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Avdiivka axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 7 attacks in the vicinities of Novokalinove, Umans’ke, Netailove and Pervomais’ke (Donetsk oblast), where the invaders, with air support, attempted to dislodge Ukrainian troops from their positions.
Novopavlivka axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the enemy in the vicinities of Krasnohorivka, Novomykhailivka and The invaders made 16 attempts, assisted by air support to breach Ukrainian defense in that area.
Orikhiv axis: The enemy conducted 5 attacks on positions of Ukrainian defenders in the vicinities of Staromaiors’ke (Donetsk oblast), Robotyne (Zaporizhzhia oblast).
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Kherson axis: Ukrainian defenders continue to maintain their positions. Over the past day, the enemy carried out 7 unsuccessful assaults on the positions of the Ukrainian Defence Forces on the left bank of the Dnipro River.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Ukraine downs 16/17 Russia’s explosive drones overnight
Overnight on 12 April, Russia launched 17 Iranian-designed Shahed-type UAV drones, targeting several regions of Ukraine. Ukrainian air defenders reportedly shot down 16 of those. Meanwhile, a civilian man injured in Russia’s April 11 noon missile strike on Mykolaiv, has died in hospital, raising the death toll of the attack to five. Euromaidan reports.
With the US major military aid package for Ukraine stalled in the US Congress by Republicans for more than six months, Russia is taking advantage of the fact that Ukraine’s air defence missiles are being depleted and Ukraine cannot repel air attacks as efficiently as before. Thus, the Russians have escalated the use of missiles of various types since March, primarily targeting Ukraine’s energy grid and continuing deliberate strikes on residential areas of multiple cities across the country. Ukraine still can destroy most explosive drones, but when it comes to the missiles, many more of those penetrate air defences.
Ukrainian Railways begins construction of European-Gauge rail project
Ukrainian Railways (Ukrzaliznytsia) has started the construction of the European-gauge Chop-Uzhhorod railway line in an effort to facilitate the integration of Ukraine with the European Union. Euromaidan reports.
The city of Chop is located near the intersection of the Slovakia-Hungary-Ukraine border.
Ukrzaliznytsia’s press service states, the railway will provide direct passenger routes from Uzhhorod to several European countries and allow transfers from trains from all regions of Ukraine for further travel to European countries.
According to the Prime Minister of Ukraine, Denys Shmyhal, the Chop-Uzhhorod European-gauge railway will allow the launch of direct rail connections with the regional centre of Transcarpathia and Vienna, Bratislava, Budapest, Prague, Bucharest, Dresden.
The company’s head, Yevhen Liashchenko, said that the company has started implementing the project, and the main construction stage will begin in May.
The construction project includes the construction of 22 km of European-standard railway track; and the reconstruction of artificial structures, facilities, and engineering support networks.
The project costs about $33 million and is co-financed with a 50% grant from the EU Connecting Europe Facility.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Russia sends its unused Far East troops to front lines in Ukraine to replenish losses
According to Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Directorate (HUR) report , Russia is deploying military units from its Far East region to reinforce its struggling invasion of Ukraine. The HUR reports that Russia is deploying personnel from its Pacific Fleet and 11th Air and Air Defence Forces Army to join the fighting.
The intelligence agency explained that Russia is making this move in order to replace significant combat losses and staff new military units.
The decision to redeploy these Far East troops comes as Russia has halted all rotations of its Pacific Fleet to Syria, with “the entire personnel being sent to war against Ukraine,” according to the HUR. This includes around 2,000 Russian soldiers from the Primorsky and Kamchatka regions.
“Around 400 soldiers from the units of the 11th Air and Air Defence Forces Army, deployed in Khabarovsk Oblast of the Russian Federation, will be ‘patching the holes’ in the 155th and 40th Marine Brigades of Russia, which are engaged in combat operations against Ukraine and have understaffing due to huge losses,” the HUR reported.
Additionally, the HUR said that part of the personnel from Russia’s Far Eastern military formations will be incorporated into a new motorised rifle brigade being formed in Voronezh.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
US House Speaker in talks with White House over stalled Ukraine aid
After months of delay, a top House Republican said the US House speaker Mike Johnson is negotiating with the White House on advancing wartime funding for Ukraine – a package that would deviate from the Senate’s $95bn foreign security package and include several Republican demands, The Guardian writes.
House Speaker Mike Johnson has been facing mounting pressure regarding a Ukraine aid package, not just from Joe Biden, who has repeatedly chastised Republicans for not helping Ukraine, but from hard-right members of Johnson’s conference who remain staunchly opposed to additional Ukraine aid.
“There’s been no agreement reached,” House Republican leader Steve Scalise told reporters on Thursday. “Obviously there would have to be an agreement reached not just with the White House, but with our own members.”
Johnson is set to travel to Mar-a-Lago club in Florida on Friday to meet with Donald Trump – who has said he would negotiate an end to the conflict as he tries to push the US to a more isolationist stance. Johnson has purportedly been consulting Trump in recent weeks on the Ukraine funding to gain his support — or at least prevent him from openly opposing the package.
Some of this aid may include sending money to Kyiv as a loan or redirecting Russian assets seized under the Rebuilding Economic Prosperity and Opportunity (Repo) for Ukrainians Act – a departure from previous aid packages sent to Ukraine. Even still, aid opponents like congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia are unlikely to be swayed. Greene has threatened to try to oust Johnson as speaker and warned that advancing funding for Ukraine would help build her case that GOP lawmakers should select a new speaker.
German Defense Chief Compares Putin to Hitler
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius compared Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine to Adolf Hitler’s annexation of Czechoslovak territory in 1938 and said Europe should prepare for a large-scale Russian attack. Bloomberg reported.
“Putin will not stop once the war against Ukraine is over,” Pistorius said late Wednesday at the presentation of a new book about Britain’s wartime leader Winston Churchill.
“He has also said that clearly,” added Pistorius, who is a member of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party and Germany’s most popular politician. “Just as clearly as Hitler, who also always said that he would not stop.”
Pistorius made the remarks during the presentation of a new biography of Churchill, whom he lauded as a strong leader with a clear vision in difficult times.
The defence minister, seen as a possible successor to Scholz, last week called for a loosening of Germany’s borrowing restrictions to help bolster the country’s military once a special off-budget fund worth €100 billion is exhausted in 2027.
“We have to put this country back in a position where it can defend itself,” Pistorius said at the book event, a reference to years of neglect of the Bundeswehr armed forces.
“We have to decide now whether we want to prepare for a genuine threat from Putin to materialise or whether we want to make it easy for him.”
Council of EU approves law criminalising sanctions circumvention and violations
On Friday 12 April, the Council of the European Union finally approved a law on EU-wide minimum rules for the prosecution of violations or circumvention of EU sanctions in member states, the press service of the council reports.
Effective immediately, specific actions aimed at evading sanctions will be considered criminal offences in all member states. Such offences include helping to bypass the entry ban, trading in sanctioned goods, or conducting prohibited financial activities.
Inciting, aiding and abetting these offences will also be penalised.
EU member states must ensure that breaches of EU sanctions result in effective and proportionate criminal penalties, which vary depending on the offence.
Intentional violation of sanctions carries a prison sentence as the maximum penalty.
Those who violate EU restrictive measures may also be subject to fines.
In addition, legal entities may be held liable if an offence is committed by a person holding a senior position within the organisation.
Member states will have 12 months to transpose the provisions of the directive into their national legislation.
Why pro-Russian Fico changed his stance on Ukraine
On 11 April, Slovakia's Prime Minister Robert Fico made several friendly statements towards Ukraine following the Ukrainian-Slovak intergovernmental consultations. Ukrainska Pravda reports.
Ukraine has heard similar words from many foreign leaders. This time though they came from a politician known for his anti-Ukrainian and pro-Russian statements.
Ukrainian prime minister Denys Shmyhal met with Fico that same day. This was the second consultations between the heads of the Ukrainian and Slovak governments since last year's change of power in Slovakia.
The first meeting took place in Uzhgorod on 24 January. Back then, it looked like Fico deliberately tried to disrupt the meeting. It had been preceded by his openly anti-Ukrainian statements. However, negotiators from the Ukrainian side privately noted, Fico directly acknowledged at the closed part of the negotiations that his scandalous statements were addressed to the domestic audience, while he himself was ready for constructive relations.
The presidential elections in Slovakia ended on 6 April. The Ukrainian issue was key in the propaganda of pro-government candidate Peter Pellegrini between the first and second rounds.
The end of the electoral cycle in Slovakia gave hope for some progress in negotiations, which made the current consultations, importantly, held just five days after the elections.
Among the agreements reached are a new international railroad route between Kyiv and Košice by the end of the year and the development of the Chop – Čierna nad Tisou cross-border railway route.
According to the Ukrainian prime minister, the Slovak government is ready to assist Ukraine in demining.
Equally important was the tone of Fico's statements.
"Slovakia wants to be a good, friendly neighbour to Ukraine. We want to show solidarity with you in the misfortune that you are fighting," he said, without naming the reason for this "misfortune."
It should also be noted that the Slovak prime minister faces very difficult negotiations with the European Commission, related to Bratislava's plans to adopt highly controversial amendments to laws on public broadcasting and NGOs.
"An expected conflict with European institutions and the possible freezing of financial assistance are at stake," says Alexander Duleba, an expert at the Slovak Foreign Policy Association.
Robert Fico needs to avoid creating additional points of tension, including Ukraine. So, for some time, Bratislava will be interested in good (at least, constructive) relations with Kyiv.
MILITARY & TECH
UK may send DragonFire laser anti-air system prototypes to Ukraine
On Apr. 11 UK Defence Secretary Grant Shapps indicated that Ukraine might receive prototypes of the DragonFire laser system to help bolster its defence against Russian drone threats, as the UK is fast-tracking the development of the weapon, which could be operational on Royal Navy ships by 2027. This announcement comes amid escalating Russian aerial strikes across Ukraine. The Telegraph reports.
The DragonFire laser is capable of shooting down drones and missiles at a fraction of the cost of traditional interceptors. During a visit to the DragonFire lab on 11 April, Shapps emphasised the strategic importance of this cutting-edge technology, stating that while the complete system is slated for deployment by 2027, the current geopolitical situation, particularly in Ukraine, might necessitate an expedited delivery of prototype units, according to The Telegraph.
Shapps stated that while the UK aims to deploy the DragonFire laser by 2027, efforts are underway to send earlier, possibly unrefined, prototypes to Ukraine:
“Let’s say that it didn’t have to be 100 per cent perfect in order for Ukrainians, perhaps, to get their hands on it. 2027 is still the date, as of this moment, but of course, I’ll look to see what we can do to speed it up,” the UK Defense Secretary said.
This innovative laser system works by focusing 37 channels of 1.5kW laser beams, arranged in a hexagonal array, which are then combined with mirrors to merge and amplify the power through a phenomenon known as constructive interference.
The result is a “perfect laser beam,” as described by Tim Kendall, a senior laser physicist at DSTL, which can be fired out through a telescopic lens. The beam is invisible and silent, operating at a wavelength close to the infrared spectrum, making it undetectable by human eyes.
DragonFire’s laser beam, travelling at the speed of light with a classified range, instantly converts metal surfaces into 3,000°C plasma and burns through sheet metal, aircraft fuselages, and weapons in seconds.
Shapps highlighted that the technology is not only efficient against slower drones but is also powerful enough to neutralise faster-moving projectiles, such as ballistic missiles, which are the hardest targets for Ukrainian air defences, since only Ukraine’s not-so-numerous Patriot systems can destroy them.
Russia used the Latest X-69 Missiles to Attack the Trypilska TPP
During the attack on the Trypilska thermal power plant (TPP), the enemy used its new X-69 cruise missiles, which allowed russians to completely destroy the most powerful power plant in the Kyiv region. This is indicated by the found fragments of this missile, which Defense Express learned from its own sources. Defense Express reports.
At the same time, according to the received additional information, the launch range of the missiles was about 400 km. This parameter exceeds the known estimates of the X-69 range of 300 km, as the next iteration of the X-59MK2.
Kh-69 is a subsonic cruise missile for tactical aircraft, which the enemy can launch from Su-34 and Su-35 tactical aircraft. As practice has shown, the use of this missile by the russians, in terms of its consequences for Ukrainians, may be more dangerous than the use of the X-47M2 Kynzhal missile.
It is expected that the X-69 will become the main russian air launched cruise missile of the future because it is designed to be launched from the internal weapons bay of the Su-57
The characteristics of this missile published earlier indicated the range of its use at distances of up to 290 km, but in practice this indicator turned out to be false. The weight of the combat unit was declared within 310 kg. The missile guidance system, according to the declarations - DSMAC, similarly to the One installed into the X-101 cruise missile, satellite navigation with interference-proof "Cometa-M" antennas, as well as inertial. The main feature of this missile, which is noted in its characteristics, is the possibility of ultra-low flight at an altitude of 20 meters - this is lower than the altitude at which the Kh-101 cruise missile flies.
Despite the fact that this missile is subsonic and has a smaller warhead than the "hypersonic" Kh-47M2 "Kynzhal" missile, the use of the Kh-69 missile by Russian terrorists to attack the Trypilska TPP can, not surprisingly, be considered a worse option for Ukraine .
First, its effective strike, unfortunately, speaks of the possibility of its penetration past the obviously exhausted Ukrainian air defense.
Secondly, its launch from tactical aircraft eliminates the characteristic feature of large-scale missile attacks, when the takeoff of Tu-95MS and MiG-31K strategic bombers is recorded.
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