UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-05-01
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 60 sources daily, much of which forms the basis of the script. While the Podcast is on hiatus I will make this Draft available here both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its situation update at 06:00 on May 1 stated that it was day 798 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
During the past day, 122 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 8 missile strikes, 61 air strikes, and 129 MLRS attacks across the positions of our troops and settlements. As a result of the Russian attacks, unfortunately, there are dead and wounded among the civilian population. Destruction and damage to residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line.
More than 120 settlements in Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, and Mykolaiv oblasts came under enemy fire.
Ukrainian missile forces struck
Air Force Daily Report
The Ukrainian Air Force in its situation update at 06:00 stated that during the previous day they launched air strikes on 12 concentrations of enemy troops. Also, the forces and means of the Air Defense of Ukraine destroyed 2 reconnaissance UAVs
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the Kupyansk, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kupyansk axis: The enemy carried out 6 assaults, with air support, in the vicinity of the settlements of Berestove, Kopanky (Kharkiv oblast) and Stelmakhivka (Luhansk oblast) attempting to improve its tactical position.
Lyman axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 6 attacks in the vicinities of settlements of Tverdokhlibove, Hrekivka, Makiivka, Nevsky, Serebryanske forestry (Luhansk oblast), plus Terny, (Donetsk oblast). where the occupiers attempted to breach Ukrainian defensive lines.
Bakhmut axis: Ukrainian forces repelled 33 Russian attacks in the vicinities of Bilohorivka (Luhansk oblast), Verkhnokamyanske, Spirne, Rozdolivka, Chasiv Yar, Novyi, Klishchiivka and Andriivka (Donetsk oblast). With air support, the invaders attempted to improve their tactical position in that area.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the Avdiivka, Novopavlivka, and Orikhiv axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Avdiivka axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 33 attacks in the vicinities of Arkhanhelske, Keramik, Sokil, Semenivka, Umanske, Yasnobrodivka, and Netailove (Donetsk oblast). With the air support, the invaders attempted to dislodge Ukrainian troops from their positions.
Novopavlivka axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the enemy in the vicinities of Heorhiivka, Paraskoviivka, and Urozhaine (Donetsk oblast). With the air support, the invaders made 18 attempts to breach Ukrainian defense in that area.
Novopavlivka Front — Courtesy DeepStateMAP
Orikhiv axis: The enemy, with air support launched 5 attacks on the positions of Ukrainian defenders in the vicinities of Staromaiorske (Donetsk oblast) Robotyne, and southwest of Bilohirya (Zaporizhzhia oblast).
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Kherson axis: Ukrainian defenders continue to maintain their positions. Over the past day, the enemy carried out 2 unsuccessful assaults on the bridgeheads of the Ukrainian Defence Forces on the left bank of the Dnipro River attempting to dislodge them from their positions.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Drunk Russian soldiers went on murder spree in Ukraine because they were out of booze
Two drunk Russian fighters reportedly went on a murder spree in Ukraine because they were out of booze. The Express reports.
Soldiers Alexander Kaygorodtsev, 36, and Alexander Osipov, 34, were detained by Russian authorities on April 24, according to independent Russian news outlet ASTRA.
The two men allegedly went on a violent rampage in the occupied Kherson Oblast of southern Ukraine.
They were "in search of alcohol," reports Telegram channel VChK-OGPU. "Where they were refused, they killed residents and burned their houses."
Among the dead was Lyubov Tymchak, the Russian-appointed head of the village of Abrikosovka, and her husband. The soldiers allegedly "disfigured their bodies, split their skulls and tried to burn them" because Tymchak told them there weren't any empty houses they could have for themselves.
The nature of the murder spree, which took the lives of Ukranians and Russians alike, has confounded observers. They reportedly travelled between the two neighbouring villages of Abrikosovka and Podo-Kalinovka looking for drinks.
One of their victims was Valentina Starchenko, 64. By one account, the men allegedly shot her, blew her house up with a grenade and fled. A local resident and his friend, a Russian serviceman, were also shot. Their bodies were set on fire.
Kaygorodtsev is no stranger to this. The soldier is a convicted murderer who had been recruited into Putin's army.
THE HOME FRONT
Access will be restored for Journalists at the Verkhovna Rada after Easter
Journalists may resume work in the Verkhovna Rada to cover plenary sessions after Easter, Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Freedom of Speech Yaroslav Yurchyshyn (Holos faction) has said. Interfax Ukraine reports.
"We are doing everything to ensure that journalists return immediately after the Easter holidays for one of the next sessions," he said during the national telethon on Wednesday.
At the same time, the MP emphasized that a limited number of media representatives will be able to work in the parliament building for security reasons during the war.
"Our security capabilities now range from 20 to 30 people at a time [simultaneous stay in the building]," Yurchyshyn said.
RUSSIAN WORLD
UK Defence Intelligence on interrogation of senior deputy of Russia's Defence Minister
The UK Ministry of Defence in its May 1 Intelligence Update stated:
The investigation into the Russian Deputy Defence Minister Timur Ivanov has likely pulled in the more senior First Deputy Defence Minister Ruslan Tsalikov. It has been reported that Tsalikov has been questioned by the FSB in connection with the Ivanov case. Tsalikov has been described as a patron of Ivanov. Tsalikov is likely effectively number three in the Ministry of Defence hierarchy, after Defence Minister Sergey Shoygu and Chief of the General Staff General Valery Gerasimov. Like Ivanov, Tsalikov has long-standing connections with Defence Minister Sergey Shoygu. He worked under Shoygu in the Ministry of Civil Defence and Emergency Situations and followed Shoygu firstly to the Moscow Region Governorship and then in 2012 to the MOD.
There is also a realistic possibility that investigations into Ivanov could also affect Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov with some sources claiming that MOD construction agencies built a house for Siluanov.
Corruption has long been a problem in the Russian Ministry of Defence. In 2019, the Chief Military Prosecutor Valery Petrov said that corruption was "pretty much the root of most of the problems in the state of the rule of law."
Corruption was a factor in Russia's poor performance, particularly early in the Ukraine conflict, where corruption was blamed for expired ration packs and poor-quality tyres, and fuel embezzlement was also reported.
Another Russian oil refinery burns
Russian Telegram channel Astra reported on the morning of 1 May that Ryazan refinery in Russia was attacked at night by UAVs. Euromaidan reports.
According to the locals, after the attack there was reportedly a fire at the plant. Ryazan Oblast Governor Pavlo Malkov said an “inspection is ongoing” at the site.
According to the Russian Defense Ministry, Russian air defenses destroyed six Ukrainian UAVs overnight into 1 May: three over the Voronezh Oblast, one over the territory of the Ryazan Oblast, one over the Belgorod Oblast and one over the Kursk Oblast.
There were reportedly no casualties. Ukrainian officials have not confirmed the responsibility for the attack.
Putin’s fuel problem: How Ukraine is sapping Russia’s diesel and gasoline
Ukraine is taking out oil refineries inside Russia, cratering Moscow’s supplies and sending local prices soaring. Politico reports.
A wave of Ukrainian drone strikes on oil refineries deep inside Russia has left the Kremlin racing to defend its own territory while still waging war on its neighbour. But the attacks have also achieved the unthinkable — leaving the world’s largest petrostate running low on petrol.
Diesel prices for Russian consumers have skyrocketed, rising almost 10 percent in the past week alone, according to the government’s figures. Petrol costs have also hit a six-month high, up more than 20 percent from the start of the year as supply tightens and more and more facilities are forced to suspend production.
Last Wednesday, two fuel storage facilities owned by Russian energy giant Rosneft, around 500 kilometres from the border with Ukraine, were severely damaged by drones as fuel went up in smoke. More than a dozen refineries across nine Russian regions have been similarly hit this year, with officials in Kyiv saying the industry is a legitimate war target.
“It’s like a mosquito — when you can’t find it, can’t kill it and it keeps coming back night after night, you’re going to be exhausted," Philip Ingram, a former British military intelligence officer and NATO planner, said. “It’s a very good way of taking the pressure off from the front lines."
As a result, Moscow has scaled back its fuel exports to near-historic lows, shipping just over 712,000 tons of diesel and gasoil last week, compared to more than 844,000 during the same week in 2023.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
G7 nations pledge to decrease dependence on Russian goods in nuclear industry
The Group of Seven (G7) countries committed on 30 April to working to reduce their dependence on "civil nuclear-related goods" from Russia. Bloomberg reports.
In a closing statement in the Italian city of Turin, G7 energy ministers said their countries would join multilateral efforts to promote diversification of fuel supplies free of Russian influence.
Officials also vowed to promote nuclear fusion as a future energy source.
Additionally, the ministers agreed to phase out the use of coal in power generation by the first half of the 2030s, citing commitments to limit future temperature increases, the statement said.
Last week, Bloomberg reported that Germany had previously objected to any mention of nuclear power in the G7's so-called "green transition" initiatives.
MILITARY & TECH
Ukrainian minister presents PARASOL trench electronic warfare system
Mykhailo Fedorov, Ukraine's Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Digital Transformation, has showcased the PARASOL trench electronic warfare system from the Brave1 defence tech cluster participant Fedrov reported on Telegram.
"The developer offers two modifications of the electronic warfare system: one is designed to protect positions from Russian drones, and the other protects the equipment from them. One of the key advantages of PARASOL is that it is invisible to enemy electronic warfare.
The first development, PARASOL 01, protects military positions by suppressing Russian FPV drones within a range of 200 metres.
The second development, PARASOL 02, protects the equipment – it can be installed and connected to the onboard network. Drones are also jammed within a range of 200 metres."
— Mykhailo Fedorov, Ukrainian Minister of Digital Transformation
Fedorov has posted a video showing developers while testing PARASOL and downing drones with it.
Other key advantages of the PARASOL are that it is very easy to operate and that learning to use it can take 10–15 minutes.
Fedorov announced that the government has already entered into contracts with the developer, MixSteel company, buying two modifications of PARASOL, and Defence Forces actively use them.
Fedorov reiterated that before the full-scale war in Ukraine, there were no developments of short-range EW: "In the field of electronic warfare, we have followed the same path as with drones: we launched the market, simplified procedures, ensured competition, and saw that it really works."
Currently, over 100 developments are registered on the Brave1 platform, and nine of them have already been codified to NATO standards, the minister said.
F-16 fighter jets expected soon – Ukraine's Air Force spokesperson
The Ukrainian Air Force has stated that they expect F-16 multi-role fighters to appear in Ukrainian airspace in the near future Illia Yevlash, spokesperson for Ukraine's Air Force said in a comment to Ukrainska Pravda.
"After Easter [early May – ed.], this is a rather extended concept. Of course, the Air Force, like all Ukrainians, would like to see the F-16 multi-role fighter jets in the airspace as soon as possible, so we are anticipating them in the near future. As soon as it emerges that the first F-16s have come to Ukraine, we will communicate this issue and officially inform our citizens that we have these multi-role fighter jets." the spokesman said.
The spokesperson said that the pilots are currently training in the US and Denmark. However, the initial number of fighter jets is not yet known.
Bradley armour saves lives amidst Russian Lancet attack
A Russian Lancet loitering munition, better known as a suicide drone, struck a Ukrainian Bradley, but the infantry fighting vehicle’s armor saved the crew and prevented significant damage. Defence Blog reports.
During the engagement, a Russian Lancet drone targeted a Ukrainian Bradley fighting vehicle. However, the vehicle’s Bradley Reactive Armour Tiles (BRAT), specifically designed to counter threats like high-explosive anti-tank (HEAT) rounds and armour-piercing projectiles, absorbed the impact of the drone strike.
The explosive reactive armour (ERA) bricks surrounding the Bradley’s hull detonated upon contact with the incoming Lancet drone, effectively neutralising the threat and protecting the vehicle’s crew. This level of protection, unmatched by conventional Russian and Ukrainian BMPs (infantry fighting vehicles), highlighted the advanced defensive capabilities of the Bradley.
As a result of this engagement, the American-made Bradley emerged victorious, sustaining minimal damage and safeguarding the soldiers it carried.
Israel Decommissions all Patriot Systems as "Too Obsolete"
The Israeli Air Force is determined to decommission all Patriot surface-to-air missile batteries within the next few months. The IDF command has officially announced the decision, noting that all the fire units will be put out of operation within the next eight weeks, that is, by the end of June 2024. Defense Express reports.
"The Patriot is an old system that is challenging to maintain, so we are currently in the process of reducing the batteries until the entire system is closed," explains Patriot Battalion commander, Lt. Col. Matan. "We need to move forward and improve our defence methods," he said, adding that Patriots will be replaced by more advanced air defence equipment.
Although it might seem that "obsolete," is not exactly how Patriot is widely perceived, Israel has the reason to think so. Particularly because as of early 2024, the Israeli Air Force had four batteries equipped with Patriot PAC-2 modernization of this system. Those were obtained from the United States in 1990 at a significant discount, "gifted" as the IDF says themselves. Since then, the Israeli Patriots did not get the PAC-3 upgrade which makes it an almost completely different system employing the next-level hit-to-kill technology for intercepting ballistic missiles, and remained in the MIM-104D (PAC-2/GEM+) version.
Throughout years of service, as specified in the IDF statement, Patriots only partook in downing of 19 targets in total, 9 of which over the past half-year. The first combat engagement took place in 2014 to destroy a drone, and it was used mostly against drones onward, too.
In Israel's conditions, with little threat coming from the enemy's manned aviation, the upkeep of Patriots might be actually unnecessary. Upgrading it to the PAC-3 version is not an optimal choice either as it means being dependent on MSE ammunition.
After all, Israel has an anti-missile defence solution of its own, called the David's Sling system, with superior specifications and a more powerful and cheaper Stunner interceptor. By the way, David's Sling derivative called SkyCeptor will be integrated into the new Patriot PAAC-4 version of the American system.
Despite no further need in those Patriot units, the chances of them ending up in Ukraine are slim. Due to the political stance, not just arms supplies from Israel, even re-export of its weapons is being silently blocked by Jerusalem. The only viable option is that the United States buy all of those systems back and transfer them via tangled exchange procedures.
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