UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-07-19
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 60 sources daily, much of which forms the basis of the script. While the Podcast is on hiatus I will make this Draft available here both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 22:00 on July 18 stated that day 876 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.
During the past day, 107 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 3 missile strikes, 54 air strikes, 411 drone strikes and more than 3,000 artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deep into the territory of Ukraine.
Ukraine Defense Intelligence: No massive Russian offensive expected at frontline
The Russian army continues local offensives along almost the entire frontline. But Ukraine expects no new powerful offensives, representative of the Defense Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense, Andrii Yusov stated in an interview with RBC-Ukraine.
Yusov recalled that the Ukrainian forces repelled and disrupted the Russian plans during the offensive in the Kharkiv region. It also affected the situation in the Sumy region.
“Nevertheless, the main task of these enemy actions is to delay Ukrainian forces and means, and the key task is the Ukrainian Donbas. The key and most heroic, dramatic events continue there. The enemy grouping is quite numerous, but it has not changed recently enough to talk about new powerful offensives in new directions,” he added.
Air Force Daily Report
During the past day, July 18, 2024, seven reconnaissance UAVs were destroyed by air defence in the southern and eastern directions: 4 – Orlan-10 and three Supercam.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kharkiv axis: 8 Russian attacks were repelled near Hlyboke and Vovchansk
Kupyansk axis: The enemy tried to advance 11 times against Ukrainian positions near Synkivka, Berestove and Stelmakhivka . The situation is under control.
Lyman axis: Russian troops attacked Ukrainian defenders 13 times in the areas of Makiivka, Nevske, Terny and Torske
Siversk axis: Russian forces carried out 8 assaults in the vicinity of Sprine, Vyimka and Pereizne.
Kramatorsk axis: The enemy attacked 5 times near the settlements of Novomarkhove, Chasiv Yar and Ivanivske.
Toretsk axis: There have been Russian attacks over that last day, one fight is still ongoing. All the efforts of the enemy were directed to the areas of Pivinchne Toretsk and Nui-York today.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk axis: The greatest activity over the past day was in this sector. The enemy conducted 22 attacks against Ukrainian defences in this area over the last day in the vicinity of Kalynove, Vozdvizhenka, Novooleksandrívka, Prohes and Novoselivka Persha, Umanske and Yasnobrodivka
Ukrainian anti-aircraft down Russian Su-25 in Donetsk region
Ukrainian anti-aircraft forces shot down a Russian Su-25 attack aircraft in the Pokrovsk sector of the Donetsk region, it was reported on July 19.
The Russian Su-25, which was attempting to strike Ukrainian Defense Forces positions, was shot down by Ukrainian anti-aircraft gunners of the separate mechanized brigade named after General Lieutenant Mark Bezruchko.
"Due to the accuracy, skill, and professionalism of the Ukrainian anti-aircraft gunners, the Russian air force has lost one Su-25 attack aircraft today," the statement said.
Kurakhove axis: The enemy 14 times unsuccessfully attacked our positions near Krasnohorivka, and Paraskovievka. 4 attacks continue near Krasnohorivka.
Vremivka axis: The situation has not experienced significant changes.
Orikhiv axis: The enemy made 6 attacks in the vicinity of Novoandriivka, Mala Tokmachka and Robotyne. 5 attacks were repelled, 1 is still in progress. The situation is under control.
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Prydniprovsk axis: Ukrainian forces repelled 3 attacks of the enemy on the left bank of the Dnipro.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Russian tourists cancel Crimea holidays en-masse, Ukrainian military intelligence says
Russian tourists have cancelled summer holiday bookings in occupied Crimea en-masse, amid concerns over the "difficult security situation," Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) said on July 19. The Kyiv Independent reports.
In a post on Telegram, HUR claimed 80% of trips to Sevastopol had been cancelled while the rate across the peninsula as a whole was more than a third.
"The mass refusal of Russians to vacation in Crimea was influenced by the unreliable and deadly work of the invaders' air defence system," HUR said.
Russia has a number of military bases in Crimea, most notably in Sevastopol, home of the Kremlin's Black Sea Fleet, though successful Ukrainian strikes forced Moscow to pull out much of its naval forces from the peninsula earlier this month.
Despite often being within sight of active military bases, some Russian tourists continue to vacation at the Black Sea beach resorts.
Last month, three people reportedly died when Russian air defences intercepted Ukrainian missiles over the peninsula.
While HUR's claims about the cancelation rates could not be verified, earlier news reports paint a picture of a Crimean tourist industry in dire trouble.
THE HOME FRONT
EU assessing controversial draft law on corruption penalties, deputy PM says
The European Commission is assessing a draft law that proposes controversial changes to Ukraine's criminal code, Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration Olha Stefanishyna said the Kyiv Independent reported on July 19.
Draft law no. 11340 proposes to amend Ukraine's Criminal Code, specifically regarding proceedings on crimes related to corruption and plea agreements.
If passed, the law would allow courts to enter into a plea agreement with someone charged with a corruption-related offense, whereby the punishment may involve a fine that would reimburse the damages caused by embezzlement, for example.
According to the draft law, the fine can range from Hr 204,000 ($5,000) to Hr 204 million ($58,000), depending on the severity of the crime.
The draft law was passed by parliament in the first reading on July 18 despite risks pointed out by the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU), Special Anti-Corruption Prosecutor (SAP) and parliament's Anti-Corruption Committee, lawmaker Yaroslav Zhelezniak noted.
Zelezniak said that the adoption of the law is a requirement of the EU's Ukraine Facility, but the law was "written in such a bad way by the Government, specifically by the Justice Ministry, and clearly not under normal consultation with colleagues from international partners."
Odesa Receives Anti-Ballistic Shield: Ukrainian Air Force Reveals
New air defences, apparently Patriot or SAMP/T systems, have been deployed to protect against russian ballistic missile strikes in the port city of Odesa.
Odesa, a major port city in the southern part of Ukraine, has been a target of systematic long-range ballistic attacks by the russian invasion forces over the past months. Now, the city has gotten its own anti-ballistic umbrella, as follows from a brief published by Ukrainian Navy Spokesman Dmytro Pletenchuk on July 19th morning.
A russian Iskander missile targeting the Odesa Region on July 18 had been taken down successfully, he reported, noting that it's a "remarkable event."
The fact Odesa got an anti-ballistic air defence weapon, is no longer a secret from russian forces who could be even aware of the specific type of system. After all, each radar — the cornerstone of an air defence system — has a unique emission signature that is easy to catch and identify with signal intelligence equipment and methods.
Especially considering there are not many options for Ukraine to choose from. The only ones available are the American Patriot and European SAMP/T which have the hit-to-kill capability necessary to intercept ballistic threats effectively.
Worth noting, besides countering ballistic threats like Iskander-M short-range missiles, both Patriot and SAMP/T also protect against high-speed missiles, such as Kh-22 (and Kh-32, its upgraded variant), P-800 Oniks, hypersonic 3M22 Zircon and ballistic Kh-47 Kinzhal.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Russia claims incident at Rostov ZNPP was “fake news”
Russia's nuclear energy operator, Rosenergoatom, says a unit of the Rostov nuclear power plant whose disconnection left some 1 million people in southern Russia and parts of occupied Crimea without electricity was switched off due to "a false alarm." Radio Liberty reports
Major power grid failures and sweeping power outages occurred in the south of Russia and Crimea on July 16 after the emergency shutdown of the unit, which Rosenergoatom said happened when a "protection mechanism was triggered."
The company did not specify what had caused the activation of the protection mechanism.
But in a statement on Telegram on July 17, Rosenergoatom said that Unit N1 had been shut down on July 16 "due to a false alarm."
The largest cities in southern Russia -- Krasnodar, Rostov-on-Don, Taganrog, Elista, Anapa, Armavir, Gelendzhik, Novorossiisk, and Stavropol -- were among the areas affected, with Novaya gazeta reporting that some 1 million people were left without electricity simultaneously in several southern regions of Russia and parts of Ukraine's Crimea region.
Rosenergoatom did not elaborate on the causes of the the "false alarm."
Grumpy here - The fact that Russian authorities say nothing happened makes me VERY nervous. Those people couldn't tell the truth if they tried.
Russia sentences U.S. journalist Evan Gershkovich to 16 years in prison on espionage charges
A Russian court has sentenced Wall Street Journal correspondent Evan Gershkovich to 16 years in prison on espionage charges, according to Russian state media. Meduza reports.
Gershkovich, a U.S. citizen, was arrested last year while on a reporting trip to the city of Yekaterinburg and has spent nearly the last 16 months in Moscow’s Lefortovo remand prison. Gershkovich’s trial was held behind closed doors and lasted just two days in total. State prosecutors initially requested a sentence of 18 years.
Gershkovich pleaded not guilty.
The Russian authorities claim that Gershkovich worked “under the direction of the CIA” to gather classified information about the activities of a Russian defence company in the country’s Sverdlovsk region.
Journalists from around the world have called for Gershkovich’s release, and the White House has said it’s working to bring him back home. On July 17, Russian Foreign Ministry Sergey Lavrov confirmed that the question of a prisoner exchange is being discussed by the two countries’ intelligence agencies.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
Defence analyst slams German plan to slash Ukraine aid
A defence analyst has raised concerns over reports Germany is planning to cut aid to Ukraine by half in its next federal budget. DW reports.
Benjamin Tallis, a political and security analyst with the Democratic Strategy Initiative, said Germany should not scale back its support for Ukraine and instead should increase aid.
"We are currently pursuing a policy that exposes us to all the costs of defeat while giving us none of the benefits of victory in Ukraine," Tallis told DW. "This stands to create a geopolitical grey zone in the heart of Europe that will only breed chaos and instability going forward, which will raise the need to actually further raise spending in the future," he added.
Tallis said Germany should be aiming for victory in Ukraine.
"We should be in it to win it," Tallis told DW. "We should be aiming to win, and frankly, we haven't even tried yet."
'It's been 18 months' and F-16s have not yet arrived, Zelensky says
Ukraine is yet to receive the first of the pledged F-16 fighter jets, despite waiting for them for a year and a half, President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview with the BBC on July 18.
The Netherlands, Denmark, Norway, and Belgium have pledged close to 80 F-16s under the fighter jet coalition launched in July 2023, with up to 20 expected to arrive this year.
Kyiv has been calling for these U.S.-made fourth-generation jets since the very first year of the full-scale war in order to bolster its air fleet, which is otherwise made up of Soviet-made aircraft.
Despite promises by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on July 10 that the first Dutch and Danish F-16s are already on their way, no delivery has been confirmed so far.
"It's been 18 months, and the planes have not reached us," Zelensky said in the interview while stressing that he is thankful for the allied support.
The president added that the fighter jets could help Ukraine push back against Russian forces and "unblock the skies."
Zelensky added that the pledged numbers are not sufficient, as Ukraine requires at least 128 planes to successfully defend itself against Russian aggression.
Zelenskyy announces there has been an important decision on F-16s from Poland
Ukraine has not yet received the promised F-16 from its allies, but the Polish government has made a decision that will speed up supplies. Zelenskyy said on Twitter on July 19
Yesterday, I met with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk at the European political community summit in the United Kingdom to discuss strengthening Ukraine's defence capabilities.
And today, we have a positive decision from the Polish government on a specific issue, which will allow Ukraine to receive F-16 jets sooner.
I am grateful to Prime Minister Tusk for efficiently following up on our previous agreements. I am grateful to Poland for its strong support for Ukraine.
MILITARY & TECH
UK signs agreement to support Ukraine's domestic arms industry
The U.K. and Ukraine signed an agreement that provides credit support for the development of Ukraine's defence industry, Ukraine's Presidential Office announced on July 19.
Defense Minister Rustem Umerov signed the agreement in London with U.K. Defense Secretary John Healey in the presence of President Volodymyr Zelensky and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
According to the Presidential Office, the agreement will support the partial production of air defence systems, armoured vehicles, and ammunition in Ukraine.
"Due to the need for rapid development of capabilities and the high cost of defence projects, Ukraine cannot currently finance them from its state budget," the Presidential Office said.
The text stipulates that British suppliers will be able to conclude credit agreements and contracts with Ukraine for up to 2 billion pounds ($2.6 billion).
During a trade mission to Ukraine in April, BAE Systems also signed an agreement with the U.K. government for the maintenance, repair, and overhaul services in Ukraine of the L119 light gun, a 105 mm howitzer.
As well as the L119, Ukraine's military uses 17 different types of weapons and equipment made by BAE Systems, such as Challenger tanks and Bradley armoured vehicles. BAE Systems opened an office in Ukraine in August 2023 to help launch the domestic production of weapons like the L119 in partnership with Ukrainian manufacturers.
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