UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-02-22
Slava Ukraini! Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 40 sources daily much of which ends up in the script. I will make this Draft available here for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
I am back from my enforced absence and a full week has passed as I suspected. Quite a bit has happened in that time in the war in Ukraine, so much that I will only attempt the briefest of a synopsis.
The AFU made a decision to tactically withdraw from the town of Avdiivka to prepared positions slightly farther west. The Russian’s have of course trumpeted this as a great victory.
Also during the last week Ukraine sank another Russian ship and shot down no less than seven of Russia’s most advanced fighters
It has now been two years since the full scale invasion and 10 years since Russia’s initial invasion of Ukraine.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its situation update at 06:00 on Feb. 22 stated that it was day 729 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
During the past day, 64 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 4 missile strikes, 113 air strikes, and 105 MLRS attacks across the positions of our troops and settlements. As a result of the Russian attacks, unfortunately, there are dead and wounded among the civilian population. Destruction and damage to residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line.
The Ukrainian Air Force launched air strikes on 10 areas of focus, 3 control points, 2 enemy anti-aircraft missile complexes and 1 SU-34.
Ukrainian missile units attacked 5 personnel focus areas, 8 artillery units, 3 control points, 2 fuel ammunition warehouses and 1 enemy radio-electronic combat vehicle.
Seven Downed russian Aircraft in 5 Days: Ukrainian Forces Destroy Another Su-34
According to the Air Force Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, another russian Su-34 fighter-bomber has been shot down by the Ukrainian Air Force. The incident occurred on the morning of February 21 in the eastern sector, although specific details regarding the engagement were not disclosed Defense Express reports.
Commander Mykola Oleshchuk remarked, “The Su-35 pilot managed to evade further danger through maneuvers. However, the crew of the Su-34 now joins our Eternal Flight, Brothers roster. Our objective control measures affirm the outcome beyond doubt.”
This marks the fifth Su-34 and the seventh russian aircraft to be eliminated within a span of less than a week.
On February 17, the Ukrainian Air Force announced the downing of three russian aircraft – two Su-34 bombers and one Su-35 fighter, with one of them crashing on russian territory approximately 120 km from the frontline.
The series of successful engagements continued on February 18, when another Su-34 bomber was neutralized due to the effective actions of Ukrainian military personnel in the eastern sector.
Finally, on February 19, additional success was achieved as the air defense forces successfully intercepted and destroyed yet another Su-34 bomber and Su-35 fighter.
With each downed aircraft, russia’s capabilities in the region suffer a significant blow!
Budanov – Russia’s strength on front line falters, but Ukraine needs more Western aid
Ukraine’s Military Intelligence Chief Kyrylo Budanov said in an interview with the Wall Street Journal that Russia is facing significant challenges in continuing its invasion of Ukraine as the war approaches its third year.
He said that while the situation is “tough” for Ukraine’s outnumbered forces with the withdrawal from Avdiivka underway, “Russia also has problems.”
On the evening of 17 February, Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi announced the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Avdiivka after holding the strong position since the Russian-renewed assault on the city in October 2023.
Kyrylo Budanov said that Russia’s professional army was “largely destroyed” in the first year of the invasion. As a result, Russia is now sending untrained conscripts into “suicidal assaults.” Budanov also claims Russia is using more artillery shells than it can produce and while it fielded hundreds of tanks last year, most were old models taken from storage. He adds that missile attacks on Ukrainian cities have declined in recent weeks due to diminishing Russian supplies.
Budanov argues that “they don’t have the strength” for Russia to achieve its main goal of capturing all of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts this year.
“If Ukraine can fight a smart defensive battle, wearing down Russian strength while rebuilding its own forces, the thinking goes, it could launch another counteroffensive against a weakened opponent in 2025.”
— Kyrylo Budanov, Chief of Ukrainian Military Intelligence
However, Budanov said one “wild card” is whether Ukraine will receive additional US military support, which has been blocked by Republicans in Congress.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group is responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine.
Kup’yans’k axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 3 attacks of the enemy near the settlements Syn.kivka and Tabaivka (Kharkiv oblast)
Lyman axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 6 attacks near Terny, and Vyimka (Donetsk oblast)
Bakhmut axis: Ukrainian forces repelled 2 attacks near Klishchiivka and Ivanivske (Donetsk oblast)
The Tavria operational-strategic group is responsible for the Avdiivka, Mar’inka, Shaktars’ke, and Zaporizhzhia axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.
Avdiivka axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 19 enemy attacks near Stepove, Lastochkyne, Sjeverne, Pervomais’ke and Nevel’s’ke (Donetsk oblast).
Mar’inka axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the occupiers in the vicinities of Heorhiivka, Pobjeda and Novomykhailivka (Donetsk oblast). Troops repelled 14 attacks in that area.
Shakhtarske axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 1 attack south of Zolota-Nyva, (Donetsk oblast)
Zaporizhzhia axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 8 attacks near Robotyne and west of Verbove (Zaporizhzhia oblast).
The Odesa operational-strategic group is responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.
Kherson axis: Ukrainian defenders continue to expand the bridgehead. Despite significant losses, the enemy does not abandon its attempts to dislodge Ukrainian troops from their positions. Over the past day, the enemy carried out 4 unsuccessful assaults on the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Russia deploys 48 Iskander missile launchers on Ukraine border
As of February 2024, Russia deployed 48 Iskander missile launchers along the border with Ukraine, Deputy Chief of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (HUR), Major General Vadym Skibytskyi, said in an interview with Interfax-Ukraine.
The 9K720 Iskander (NATO reporting name SS-26 Stone) is a Russian-made mobile short-range ballistic missile system. Iskander missiles travel at a terminal hypersonic speed of 2100–2600 m/s (Mach 6–7), can reach an altitude of 50 km, and can hit targets within an operational range of up to 500 km.
Furthermore, the ground force of the Russian troops located on the territory of Ukraine now amounts to about 470,000 servicemen, Vadym Skibytskyi said. Russia has also reinforced the grouping of troops covering the state border in Belgorod, Kursk, and Bryansk regions (western Russia), according to Vadym Skibytskyi.
Skibytskyi, also said that around 33,000 troops of the National Guard of Russia, Rosgvardiya have now been deployed in the occupied territories. Rosgvardiya - the internal military force of Russia, comprising an independent agency that reports directly to the President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, under his powers as Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and Chairman of the Security Council.
THE HOME FRONT
Russian drone attack - Air Force destroys 8 of 10 drones
The Ukrainian Air Force released a report stating that Russia attacked Ukraine overnight on Feb. 21 - 22 with 10 Shahed attack UAVs launched from Russia’s Primorsko-Akhtarsk and also launched a Kh-31P anti-radar missile from the Black Sea.
Ukraine’s Air Force managed to destroy eight drones within Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv oblasts.
THE RUSSIAN WORLD
Prominent Pro-war Russian milblogger criticizes command, commits suicide
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported in their Feb. 21 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment that Prominent Russian military blogger Andrei Morozov reportedly died by suicide on 21 February after refusing to delete his reports on high Russian casualties around Avdiivka.
Ukraine reported heavy Russian casualties during a months-long campaign to seize Avdiivka. On Feb. 17 2024, as their forces withdrew, Ukraine’s Tavria Group spokesman Dmytro Lykhovii stated that Russia lost 20,607 troops, 201 tanks, and 492 armored fighting vehicles during the final stage of the battle, between Jan. 1 and Feb. 16.
According to ISW, Sergeant Andrei Morozov, also known as Boytsovskiy Kot Murz, served in the Russian 4th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (2nd “Luhansk People’s Republic” Army Corps) and was a vocal critic of the Russian military command and the Ministry of Defense.
In a detailed suicide note, Morozov revealed that a Russian colonel ordered him on 20 February to delete his 19 February report, which claimed that 16,000 Russian personnel had died in combat during offensive operations in Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast.
The colonel allegedly threatened to withhold supplies from Morozov’s unit unless he removed his reports on Russian casualties in Avdiivka, suggesting that only presidential elections could effect change. Morozov suspected the colonel was acting on directives from higher military and political authorities, including propagandists like Vladimir Solovyov, who had previously targeted him.
ISW writes: Morozov used his suicide note to further discuss Russian military failures in Avdiivka and Donetsk Oblast. Morozov accused Russian generals of wastefully sacrificing thousands of servicemen to advance their military careers and implied that most Russian journalists lie about battlefield realities. Morozov also observed that the Russian military command had been increasingly using mobilized personnel as barrier forces (specialized units that shoot their own forces who retreat or refuse to attack) and amplified a formal complaint from a mobilized Russian serviceman of the 1487th Regiment (a mobilized unit under the command of the 1st Donetsk People’s Republic’s [DNR] Army Corps), which the Russian military prosecutor’s office rejected in early February. The mobilized serviceman complained that the 1487th Regiment was reduced to less than 30 percent of its strength due to the regiment’s lack of reinforcements and rotations since the regiment’s deployment in mid-January 2023.The serviceman added that the commander of the 1st Army Corps, nicknamed “Krym” (Crimea), transferred 300 servicemen from the 1487th Regiment to the command of the Russian “Veterany” private military company (PMC) in November 2023 – most of whom died or were injured in the Avdiivka direction. The mobilized serviceman accused the “Veterany” PMC – which is reportedly staffed with convicts, drug addicts, and looters – of using mobilized personnel as barrier troops and refraining from participating in assaults. The mobilized serviceman added that his battalion completely lacked grenade launchers, mortars, and vehicles necessary for offensive operations. The mobilized serviceman also observed that Russian military medical staff refused to treat shellshocked servicemen and sent them back to the frontlines without medical examinations and that these issues systematically plague other Russian units.
WORLD NEWS
Iran sends Russia hundreds of ballistic missiles
Iran has provided Russia with a large number of powerful surface-to-surface ballistic missiles, six sources told Reuters, deepening the military cooperation between the two U.S.-sanctioned countries.
Iran's provision of around 400 missiles includes many from the Fateh-110 family of short-range ballistic weapons, such as the Zolfaghar, three Iranian sources said. This road-mobile missile is capable of striking targets at a distance of between 300 and 700 km (186 and 435 miles), experts say.
The shipments began in early January after a deal was finalised in meetings late last year between Iranian and Russian military and security officials that took place in Tehran and Moscow, one of the Iranian sources said.
An Iranian military official - who, like the other sources, asked not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the information - said there had been at least four shipments of missiles and there would be more in the coming weeks. He declined to provide further details.
"There will be more shipments," the second Iranian official said. "There is no reason to hide it. We are allowed to export weapons to any country that we wish to."
U.N. Security Council restrictions on Iran's export of some missiles, drones and other technologies expired in October. However, the United States and European Union retained sanctions on Iran's ballistic missile programme amid concerns over exports of weapons to its proxies in the Middle East and to Russia.
A U.S. official told Reuters that Washington had seen evidence of talks actively advancing but no indication yet of deliveries having taken place.
NATO - Ukraine has right to self-defense, including hitting military targets outside the country
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated in an interview with Radio Free Europe that Ukrainian pilots of F-16 multirole fighter jets would have the right to strike legitimate military targets outside Ukraine, i.e. on Russian territory.
Asked when Ukraine will be able to deploy the US-made F-16 fighter jets, Stoltenberg stated that was not possible to say, reiterating that Ukraine’s allies “all want them to be there as early as possible.” Stoltenberg, however, emphasized that the impact of the F-16s on the battlefield would be greater if pilots are well-trained and maintenance crews and other support personnel are well-prepared.
Stoltenberg also said the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the city of Avdiyivka after months of intense fighting demonstrates the need for more military aid “to ensure that Russia doesn’t make further gains.”
Ukraine’s allies have been focused on a $61 billion U.S. military aid package, Stoltenberg said, but while that remains stalled in the House of Representatives, other countries, including Sweden, Canada, and Japan, have stepped up their aid.
Sweden announced its 15th aid package and largest to date since Russia launched its full-scale invasion two years ago. Worth 7.1 billion Swedish kroner ($684 million), the package will provide combat boats, mines, artillery ammunition, and air-defense equipment, among other items, Sweden’s defense minister announced.
Canada's Defense Department said on February 19 it would expedite the delivery of more than 800 drones, adding in a statement that drones have become a critical capability for Ukraine in the war. They will cost more than $95 million Canadian ($70 million) and are part of a previously announced military aid package for Ukraine. Deliveries will start as early as this spring, the statement said.
Bundestag holds debate on providing Ukraine with “long range” missiles
The German Bundestag held a debate on Thursday on whether to provide Ukraine with Taurus cruise missiles. German news outlet Tagesschau reports.
Two texts have been submitted for consideration. The successful, from the "traffic light coalition" - the SPD, the Greens and the Free Democrats - refers to the supply of "additional long-range systems" to Ukraine in general terms, without mentioning specific weapons.
The members of the coalition are not on the same page regarding this issue.
The second draft,(which was not adopted) from the opposition CDU-CSU, explicitly mentions Taurus missiles.
The results of the discussions in the Bundestag will be more of a formality, as the decision itself depends on the government.
Later it was announced that the Bundestag had voted in favour of the proposal prepared by the leading parties regarding arming Ukraine, which, among other things, includes a call for provision of long-range missile systems to Kyiv. The proposal does not explicitly mention the Taurus cruise missiles.
The proposal was supported by 382 members of the Bundestag; 284 voted against it, and 2 abstained.
In the adopted proposal, it is noted that "Ukraine should continue to have the capability to strike military targets, such as ammunition storage points, supply routes, and command posts far beyond the front line, and be able to protect its soldiers from attacks by Russian military forces in the best possible way"
MILITARY & TECH
UK to provide Ukraine with 200 more Brimstone missiles
UK Defence Secretary Grant Shapps has announced the supply of 200 more Brimstone surface-to-surface or air-to-surface missiles to Ukraine.
"Today I can announce a new package of 200 Brimstone anti-tank missiles in a further boost to defend Ukraine. These missiles have previously had significant impact on the battlefield, in one instance forcing Russian forces to abandon and retreat an attempted crossing of a river," Shapps added.
The secretary stressed that these missiles had already had a significant impact on the battlefield during the Russian war against Ukraine.
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