UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-01-02
Slava Ukraini! For the past six months I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 40 sources daily much of which ends up in the Ukraine War Written Brief. While this is going through a period of transition I will make this Draft available here for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
Russians attack on 8 fronts, focusing their assaults on Avdiivka front
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its 06:00 on Dec. 31 stated that The Russian occupiers continue to attack along the entire contact line, with the Ukrainian Armed Forces repelling most of the hostile attacks on Avdiivka, Kherson and Bakhmut fronts. Over the course of the past day, 54 combat clashes took place.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group is responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine.
Russian persist on the Kupyansk Front
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in their 06:00 briefing on Jan. 02 stated that within the area of responsibility of the Khortytsia Operational-Strategic Group of Forces on the Kupyansk front, Ukrainian forces repelled 7 Russian assaults near Synkivka and to the east of Petropavlivka (Kharkiv Oblast), where the Russians made unsuccessful attempts to break through the Ukrainian defences.
The enemy was inactive on the Lyman front.
On the Bakhmut front, Ukrainian forces repelled 10 Russian assaults in the vicinity of Bohdanivka, Klishchiivka and Andriivka (Donetsk Oblast).
The Tavria operational-strategic group is responsible for the Avdiivka, Mar’inka, Shaktars’ke, and Zaporizhzhia axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.
The bulk of Russian assaults shift to the south of Avdiivka
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in their 06:00 briefing on Jan. 02 stated that within the area of responsibility of the Tavriia Operational-Strategic Group of Forces on the Avdiivka front, Ukrainian forces are continuing to repel the Russian attempts to surround Avdiivka. Ukrainian forces are holding the line and inflicting significant losses on the Russians. Over the course of the past day, Ukraine’s defence forces repelled 4 Russian assaults in the vicinity of Novobakhmutivka, Stepove, and Avdiivka, and another 19 assaults in the vicinity of Pervomaiske and Nevelske (Donetsk Oblast).
On the Zaporizhzhia front, Ukraine’s defence forces repelled 3 Russian assaults in the vicinity of Robotyne (Zaporizhzhia Oblast).
The Odesa operational-strategic group is responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea
Russian forces attempt to drive Ukrainian forces out of Kherson Oblast
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in their 06:00 briefing on Jan. 02 stated that within the area of responsibility of the Odesa Operational-Strategic Group of Forces on the Kherson front, Ukrainian forces are continuing to undertake operations to expand their foothold [on Dnipro’s left (east) bank]. Despite Russia’s significant losses in the area, its forces are continuing to try to drive the Ukrainian forces out of their positions. Over the course of the past day, the Russians undertook 19 unsuccessful assault operations.
Russia ceased to attack Black Sea grain corridor after three fighter bombers were shot down a week ago
Nataliia Humeniuk, Head of the Joint Press Centre of the Defence Forces of Ukraine's south stated on the national joint 24/7 newscast stated that A week has passed since the Russians stopped targeting the Black Sea grain corridors after the Ukrainian Air Force shot down three Russian fighters over the Black and Azov Seas on 24 December.
"As of today, we have not actually recorded such sorties with the launch of guided bombs for a whole week. It was certainly a week, but perhaps the dates will be more refined, we will look into analytics.
We demonstrated to the enemy that the activity of tactical aircraft in the Black Sea is extremely dangerous for them, such attempts have stopped, but we must be aware that the density of mines in the sea was increased during previous sorties,"
— Nataliia Humeniuk, Spokesperson, Ukraine's Southern Defence Forces
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Russia attacks Ukraine with 122 drones on Jan 01, 87 of them downed
General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Facebook, in their 06:00 update on Jan. 1 stated that Russian troops launched 122 Shahed-136/131 attack drones at Ukraine over 31 December and on New Year’s Eve night. Air defence systems shot down 87 of them.
“The Russian occupiers once again attacked Ukraine yesterday using 96 Shahed-136/131 UAVs. Air defence assets and personnel destroyed 66 attack UAVs.
Also, the invaders conducted another airstrike using 26 Shahed-136/131 attack UAVs on the night of 31 December-1 January. Our defenders destroyed 21 enemy drones."
— GSAFU
Ukraine suffered another huge Russian attack on the night of Jan 1-2
The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine announced that Russian occupation forces launched 35 Shahed drones on Ukraine on the night of 1-2 January 2024 from Cape Chauda (Crimea) and from the vicinity of Primorsko-Akhtarsk in Russia's Krasnodar Krai.
Ukrainian forces were successful in shooting down all of them
Additionally Russia launched another massive wave of 83 missiles on Ukraine 10 Kinzhal – all of which were shot down. 70 Kh-101/Kh-555/Kh-55 cruise missiles – 59 of which were shot down and 3 Kalibr cruise missiles – all of which were shot down.
All in all a very impressive performance by integrated Ukrainian air defenses last night that would be the envy of any country
Jan. 2 Russian attack on Ukraine: 5 civilians killed, 127 injured, fires still being put out in Kyiv
Ukraine's State Emergency Service (SES) released a statement on Jan. 02 stating that Five people have been killed and 127 others injured in Ukraine in a large-scale Russian attack on 2 January, with fires still being put out in the city of Kyiv.
They reported that the SES crews are continuing to respond to the blazes at two locations in Kyiv's Podilskyi district as of 16:00.
THE RUSSIAN WORLD
Russia spent about $620 million on the shelling of Ukraine on January 2.
The Russian Federation spent a massive missile attack on Ukraine on January 2 about $620 million. This is evidenced by the data of the command of the Air Force of the Armed Forces and the calculations of Forbes.
According to preliminary data, at night and on the morning of January 2, the enemy used 99 air strikes against Ukraine: missiles of various types and shock UAVs.
In the first wave, the enemy attacked «shaheds». All 35 shock UAVs «Shahed-136/131» destroyed. In the morning, the enemy used strategic aircraft – Tu-95MS bombers. 16 aircraft launched at least 70 cruise missiles X-101/X-555/X-55.
Launchers recorded ten X-47M2 aerobalistic missiles « Kinjal» from MiG-31K fighters.
The enemy also attacked from the sea three cruise missiles «Caliber», and from the north – 12 Iskander-M/S-300/C-400 missiles. Su-35 was used from tactical aviation aircraft four X-31P anti-radar missiles.
According to the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces Valery Engraving, Ukrainian defenders destroyed 10 of the 10 X-47M2 aeroballic missiles « Kinjal», 59 of the 70 cruise missiles X-101/X-555/X-55 and three of the three cruise missiles «Caliber».
Given that the exact distribution of missiles by type remains unknown, Forbes estimates their value at approximately $620 million.
To calculate the value of these missiles, Forbes used the following estimates: rocket value X-101 – $13 million, «Caliber» – $6.5 million, «G1>, X-22 – $1 million, «Point-U» – $0.3 million, X-55 – $2 million, X-555 – $4 million, X-47 «, Shahed-136 – $50,000.
Russian Navy receives new Frigate — almost 11 years after construction commenced
On December 25, 2023, russia ceremoniously commissioned the newest Admiral Golovko frigate, Project 22350, into the Northern Fleet. Even russian President Vladimir Putin (or one of the famously reclusive leaders doubles) was in attendance. Defence Express reports
However, now multiple naval-themed russian media report that the Ministry of Defense of russia is suing the Severnaya Verf shipbuilding yard in St. Petersburg, where the frigate was constructed. This case reveals the gap between the contract value and actual cost of the ship, showcasing how chaotic russian pricing for military equipment can be.
In short, the ministry sought a penalty for the delay in the ship's delivery schedule. Admiral Golovko, initially laid down in 2012, had at least four deadline extensions, finally delivered in December 2023.
However, the case files note that the Ministry of Defense underpaid 8 billion rubles from the contract value, leading to delays in delivery. Consequently, for the Ministry, the ship cost only $224 million, considering the amount actually paid.
On the other hand, the shipyard contends that the actual cost of building the Project 22350 series, including the Admiral Golovko, has increased by 19 billion rubles compared to the contract signed years ago. This suggests that the actual construction cost of the Golovko frigate could reach around $400 million.
The discrepancy raises questions about how to evaluate the ship when it comes to calculating, for example, the losses of russia in the war against Ukraine — quite a common practice, particularly for assessing the effectiveness of military operations and applied weapons in statistical terms.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
German lawmakers call for the German Government to supply Taurus missile to Ukraine
Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, Chairwoman of the Bundestag's Defence Committee and Representative of the Free Democratic Party, in an interview with t-online criticised the slow supply of weapons to Ukraine amid another large-scale Russian missile attack.
Ms. Strack-Zimmermann (FDP) criticizes that the Ukraine delivered German tanks can only be repaired slowly.
"'As long as it takes' becomes a phrase, if we do not continue to support Ukraine significantly more together with our European partners. Ukraine needs more ammunition, more spare parts and the Taurus must be launched immediately to finally make Russian supplies more difficult.
And the European, well-announced F-16 coalition has to pick up speed much faster if you want to counter the Russian air superiority. Putin is betting that we are afraid of our own courage. And obviously he is right. This hesitation is so bitter."
— Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, Chairwoman of the Bundestag's Defence Committee
Türkiye will not let UK's minehunters gifted to Ukraine into Black Sea
Türkiye has denied reports that it has allowed two minehunters handed over to Ukraine by the UK to enter the Black Sea.
In a statement from the Turkish Presidential Office's Centre for Countering Disinformation. The agency said that the claims of some media that "minehunters donated to Ukraine by the UK were allowed to pass through the Turkish straits into the Black Sea" were not true.
Türkiye, as the guarantor of the Black Sea straits of the Bosphorus and Dardanelles under the Montreux Convention, closed them "to warships of the belligerents (Russia and Ukraine)".
"Our respective allies have been duly informed that the minehunters donated to Ukraine by the UK will not be able to pass through the Turkish straits to the Black Sea as long as the war continues," the Turkish Disinformation Counteraction Centre added.
The agency stressed that this decision allows "to prevent escalation in the Black Sea".
MILITARY & TECH
Zelenskyy and Trudeau discussed bolstering Ukraine's air defences
The President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy first international phone call of 2024 was with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau The President’s office reported They discussed recent Russian attacks on civilian Ukrainian targets and ways to bolster Ukrainian air defences.
The President of Ukraine thanked the Prime Minister of Canada for his willingness to help strengthen Ukraine's sky shield, in particular by supplying additional NASAMS systems and missiles.
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