UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2023-12-20
Slava Ukraini! For the past six months I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 40 sources daily much of which ends up in the Ukraine War Written Brief. While this is going through a period of transition I will make this Draft available here for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
Russia is facing a severe ammunition problem
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine GSAFU in its morning report on Dec. 20 said that Given the insufficient amount of ammunition of its own production, the Russian occupying forces are forced to use low-quality artillery and mortar charges supplied from North Korea. Due to the unsatisfactory condition of such ammunition, rare cases of their bursting right in the barrels of guns and mortars of the occupiers are recorded, which leads to the loss of weapons and personnel of the invaders. In particular, such cases were recorded in the "Dnipro" troop grouping, where General Teplinsky is the commander.
Ukraine Bolsters Defences as russian Advance Stalls
The UK Ministry of Defence in its Dec. 20 Intelligence report stated that in recent weeks, Ukraine has mobilised a concerted effort to improve field fortifications as its forces pivot to a more defensive posture along much of the front line.
This follows Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s calls, from late November 2023, for faster fortification in key sectors. In one part of the project, Ukraine has worked to improve defences along its border with Belarus with dragon’s teeth, razor wire and anti-tank ditches as of mid-December 2023.
Russia continues local offensive options in several sectors, but individual attacks are rarely above platoon size. A major Russian breakthrough is unlikely and overall, the front is characterised by stasis.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group is responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine.
Little Change on the contact line
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in its Dec. 19 assessment stated that Russian forces recently made a marginal confirmed advance northeast of Kupyansk. Geolocated footage published on December 18 indicates that Russian forces marginally advanced north of Synkivka (northeast of Kupyansk). Russian and Ukrainian sources stated that fighting continued northeast of Kupyansk near Synkivka and Petropavlivka.
Russian forces did not advance along the Svatove-Kreminna line and conducted positional engagements on December 19. Ukrainian and Russian sources stated that fighting occurred northwest and west of Kreminna near Makiivka, Terny, and the Serebryanske forest area. Elements of the 24th Spetsnaz Brigade and the 20th Combined Arms Army (Western Military District) are reportedly operating in this area.
Russian sources claimed that their forces reportedly advanced northwest and southwest of Bakhmut however there is no visible evidence to confirm this. Russian sources also claimed Ukrainian forces attempted unsuccessfully assaulted the western outskirts of Bakhmut
Ukrainian military officials stated that the Russian military command is using its most combat-capable airborne (VDV) and naval infantry units, and “Storm-Z” and “Storm-V” units comprised mostly of prisoner recruits, in the Bakhmut direction and that Russian forces’ goal is to attack Chasiv Yar (10km west of Bakhmut).
The Tavria operational-strategic group is responsible for the Avdiivka, Mar’inka, Shaktars’ke, and Zaporizhzhia axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.
Marginal gains on Avdiivka front
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in its Dec. 19 assessment stated that Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka. Geolocated footage posted on December 18 shows that Russian forces made a marginal gain just north of Pervomaiske (about 10km southwest of Avdiivka) around December 15. Additional geolocated footage posted on December 19 shows that Russian forces have also marginally advanced in the quarry area southwest of Avdiivka. Several Russian sources additionally claimed that Russian forces are trying to push Ukrainian forces out of positions in the Avdiivka Coke Plant (on the northwestern outskirts of Avdiivka), and that Russian forces are advancing on the northern flank of Avdiivka near Stepove. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks near Avdiivka itself, as well as northwest, southwest, and directly west of Avdiivka.
Russian soldiers seek a dry place to spend the winter
Ukraine Land Forces on Dec. 20 reported on Telegram that the Russians have become somewhat more active. Infantry, armoured vehicles and aviation are used.
One of the reasons is that they are trying to seize at least some piece of the settlement, because it is easier to winter in basements than in the field. The AFU added that they will not afford Russia this luxury.
The Odesa operational-strategic group is responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea
Defense Forces continue measures to expand bridgehead in South
In the area of responsibility of the Southern Defense Forces it was reported the enemy continues to strengthen its positions, drawing up reserves. As noted, the enemy conducts surveillance, continues to press with artillery fire, and uses drones of various types: both reconnaissance and strike.
"[Ukrainian] forces will continue the measures to expand the bridgehead. Despite the failures, the enemy did not give up the intention to knock out our units from the occupied positions and carried out 8 attempts of assault actions. He received a decent repulse and retreated with losses. Our defenders are conducting a counter-battery fight, inflicting fire damage on the enemy's rear,"
— Southern Defense Forces press release
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
THE HOME FRONT
Effective air defence results in 18 out of 19 enemy Shahed destroyed in overnight attack
In another sign of the increasing effectiveness of Ukrainian air defences Russia attacked Ukraine with 20 Shahed drones overnight on Dec. 20. The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported 19 were shot down.
"In total, 19 shaheds were launched, 18 of which were destroyed by the Air Force and Defense Forces of Ukraine within Odesa, Kherson, Dnipro, Vinnytsia, Khmelnytsky, Kyiv, Chernihiv and Kirovohrad regions,"
— Ukrainian Air Force statement
The Kharkiv region was also struck by 2 Russian S-300 missiles launched from the Belgorod region.
Next year Ukraine will produce one million drones, - Zelenskyy.
President Zelenskyy assured that Ukraine will produce one million of its own drones next year.
Censor.NET reported the head of state said during a press conference on Dec. 19, answering a question about the production of Ukrainian weapons and ammunition.
"There should be an infrastructure for managing drones: simple and quick to use. At the last Headquarters meeting, we discussed the issue of drones. Because we often do not have logistics in place: when 26,000 drones were in one warehouse and did not reach the front. There should be no such pauses. Our soldiers will receive domestic drones for their brigades,"
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine
Zelenskyy added that artillery munitions production would also increase, in particular, 155-caliber artillery, but, unfortunately, it is still very difficult to produce sufficient amounts because of a scarcity of gunpowder.
Ukraine gears up for mobilisation changes: Proposals presented
In Ukraine, work is underway to make changes to the rules of mobilisation, military registration, and the process of military service. RBC Ukraine reports. The President has emphasised the need for these changes, and statements from officials increasingly suggest that new initiatives will be announced soon.
The Ukrainian government is preparing a comprehensive mobilisation plan, which may be presented in the near future. One of the changes involves clarifying what a special period is, namely: from the adoption of a decision to conduct mobilisation until the time of demobilisation and the end of hostilities.
The legislation will also address such things as leave and pensions.
Parliamentarians are working on clarifying the grounds for deferment from conscription into military service during mobilisation. The aim is to eliminate loopholes in current legislation that conscripts exploit for misuse.
The provision regarding parents of three or more underage children remains unchanged.
Discussions are ongoing in the Rada regarding demobilisation (determining the length of service after which a servicemember is eligible for release). This issue is considered one of the more challenging ones since such practices were not previously applied during full-scale wars.
The President himself refers to demobilization as the "number one issue."
“I would really like our military leadership to understand all these challenges. We cannot lose the bravest, the most powerful people, their morale. If we talk about additional mobilization forces, we need to find demobilization processes... It should be substantive, with specifics, and great respect for the warriors,"
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine
Ukraine will receive 50 ambulances from the United Arab Emirates
The Government of the United Arab Emirates ( UAE), with which the Elena Zelenska Foundation has successful experience in implementing humanitarian projects, reports Ukraine will receive 50 ambulances to support the country's medical infrastructure. The transfer is facilitated by the Ukrainian Embassy in the UAE. The first batch of 14 has already been delivered to Ukraine according to the press service of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine (MOH).
THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION / OCCUPIED BELARUS
EU court rejects Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich's challenge against EU sanctions
The Court of Justice of the European Union has dismissed a challenge by Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich against the sanctions imposed on him after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Svidomi media reports.
The Court of Justice dismissed the challenge and rejected Abramovich's claims for compensation, taking into account his role in the Russian steel company Evraz and the fact that steel provided a significant source of revenue to the Russian government. Thus, the sanctions against Roman Abramovich remain in force.
Abramovich, who also holds Israeli citizenship and is the former owner of the British Premier League soccer club Chelsea, has become one of Russia's most powerful businessmen. Forbes estimates his net worth at $9.2 billion.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
Germany concludes record gas contract for 129 billion cubic metres with Norway's Equinor
The Norwegian energy giant Equinor signed a ten-year contract for the supply of gas to Germany with the possibility of extending it for another five years – through 2038, according to the reports of the companies.
The gas buyer will be Gazprom's subsidiary nationalised by Germany, which is currently called SEFE (Securing Energy for Europe GmbH).
Gazprom lost control of its German subsidiary in April 2022 due to Russia's aggression against Ukraine. The company was transferred to the management of the Federal Network Agency of Germany and changed its name to SEFE, and in the fall of the same year it was nationalised.
The contract will provide a third of the industrial gas needs of Europe's largest economy, Equinor said. It envisages the supply of about 10 billion cubic metres per year (111 terawatt-hours) from January 1, 2024 to 2034 and another 5.8 billion cubic metres per year in case of extension.
MILITARY & TECH
United24 Delivers armoured ambulances to the AFU
An article in ArmyInform reports that United24 has delivered 13 Gurkha armoured ambulances to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The Gurkha MPV is manufactured by Terradyne Armored Vehicles Inc. a Canadian company. The vehicle meets NATO STANAG 4569 level II ballistic standard. This means that their armour protects against kinetic ammunition, fragments of field artillery shells and the explosion of improvised explosive devices.
The Gurkha maintains off-road capability and has a maximum speed of 130km.
It is reported that all 13 ordered evacuation cars arrived in Ukraine in stages. All have now been delivered and handed over to the military and are already involved in the tasks in the area of hostilities.
Ukraine Will Receive Several New Patriot Air Defense Systems this Winter
In a major end of year press conference, on Dec 19, President Zelenskyy announced that Ukraine will receive several new Patriot air defence systems this winter. These systems will be a major boost to Ukraine’s air defence capabilities and will help to protect the country from russian air attacks.
“I would like to [thank] our partners, the Ukrainian Air Force and my team for what is happening with the strengthening of Ukrainian air defense. This is important, very important. This winter is different. It is also with challenges, unfortunately, with losses, but still less. We are becoming stronger every month. I had a serious trip with my team. Several new Patriot systems will be in Ukraine, to protect our state in the winter. This is a very important result,”
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine
However, Zelensky stressed that he had promised not to announce the number of systems that would go into defense until they were deployed in Ukraine.
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