UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-07-02
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 60 sources daily, much of which forms the basis of the script. While the Podcast is on hiatus I will make this Draft available here both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 22:00 on July 1 stated that day 860 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.
During the past day, 161 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 4 missile strikes, 33 air strikes, 433 drone strikes 3,072 artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deep into the territory of Ukraine.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kharkiv axis: There were 11 assault actions of the enemy in the areas of Hlyboke, Lyptsi and Vovchansk 4 of which are ongoing. The situation is under the control of Ukrainian Defense Forces.
Kupyansk axis: The enemy made 17 attempts to breach Ukrainian positions near the settlements of Synkivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Pischane and Stelmakhivka. 3 clashes continue in the vicinity of Synkivka.
Lyman axis: The enemy attacked Ukrainian positions 17 times in the vicinity of Petrivske, Makiivka and Nevske. The situation is under the control of Ukrainian defenders.
Ukraine drives Russia back in the east
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) a US think tank in its July 1 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment stated that Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions near Kreminna amid continued fighting along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on July 1.
Geolocated footage published on June 30 and July 1 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions in the forested area south of Kreminna and east of Terny (west of Kreminna).
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed on July 1 that Russian forces seized Stepova Novoselivka (southeast of Kupyansk), but a milblogger disputed that Russian forces fully control the settlement.
ISW's current control of terrain assessment places Russian forces about 1.1 kilometres away from Stepova Novoselivka at the closest point, and ISW has not yet observed visual evidence of Russian forces operating near or in the settlement.
Below maps from DeepState show areas in blue that have recently been regained in Eastern Ukraine.
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Siversk axis: Russian forces carried out 19 assaults in the vicinity of Bilhorivka, Verkhnokamianske, Spirne, Ivano-Darivka and Vyimka.
Kramatorsk axis: Ukrainian defenders, over the day, repelled 5 attacks in the vicinity of Novyi and Klischiivka
Toretsk axis: Russian forces, assisted by aviation, made 19 attempts, assisted by aviation, to breach Ukrainian positions in the vicinity of Pivnichne, Toretsk, Pivdenne and New York. All offensive actions of the enemy have been repelled.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk axis: The situation in this area remains tense.The enemy conducted 44 attacks against Ukrainian defences in this area over the last day in the vicinity of Vozdvizhenka, Novooleksandrívka, Yevhenívka, Novoselívka Persha, Skuchne and Yasnobrodivka
Kurakhove axis: The enemy, supported by aviation, 7 times unsuccessfully attacked the positions of the Defense Forces in the vicinity of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka and Paraskoviivka
Vremika axis: The enemy made 10 attacks in the vicinity of Urozhaine and Zolota-Nyva over the last day.
Orikhiv axis: The enemy made 2 attacks in the vicinity of Novodanylivka and Robotyne
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Prydniprovsk axis: The enemy made 8 attempts to breach the defences of Ukrainian forces on the left bank of the Dnipro.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
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A missile strike destroyed a Russian depot of Shahed-136 attack drones in temporarily occupied Crimea near Cape Fiolent. Militarnyi reported on July 2.
The Dosye Shpiona Telegram channel stated this and published a photo of the damage aftermath.
It is alleged that the strike on the military facility of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, located near occupied Sevastopol, was carried out on the evening of July 1.
It is stated that missiles of an unspecified type were used for this purpose. The target was a depot with Shahed-136/Geran-2 drones, which Russians regularly use to strike military and civilian targets in Ukraine.
Ukrainian Air Force Commander Lieutenant General Mykola Oleshchuk confirmed the destruction of a Russian warehouse on July 1 in the temporarily occupied Qirim. To do this, Ukrainian aircraft launched a missile strike on the occupiers’ facility near Sevastopol.
On July 1, powerful explosions occurred in Sevastopol, near Cape Fiolent, and in the area of Balaklava TPP. It was reported about the alleged work of Russian air defence.
Mikhail Razvozhayev, the so-called head of Sevastopol, controlled by Russia, stated about the alleged destruction of “four air targets in the sky over the water area and in the area of Balaklava.”
The debris, he said, “fell in the coastal zone and Balaklava district.”
THE HOME FRONT
Mobilised recruits receive proper training before joining units at the front.
According to Vladimir Sobipan, commander of the 79th Independent Air Assault Brigade, many conscripts fear imminent deployment to the frontline post-receipt of their induction notice. He emphasised that this narrative is propagated by Russians and does not reflect reality.
Mobilisation is ongoing in Ukraine, with those conscripted undergoing rigorous training before being sent to the front. Commander Sobipan provided these insights in his commentary to TSN.
He explained that brigades are currently sending their best soldiers to train new conscripts. This means that upon receiving their notice, conscripts are first sent for training rather than directly to combat zones.
"Those uninvolved in combat have several fears: that they won't be properly trained, that they'll be immediately dispatched to infantry, and that they'll have to make frontline decisions independently because commanders allegedly neglect them. This is a Russian narrative spread on social media, and some of our citizens believe it. But it’s completely untrue," Sobipan asserted.
As an example, the commander mentioned the 199th Training Center, noting that it conducts tactical training, weapons handling, and more, to ensure that soldiers understand every detail before reaching the frontline.
"Training battalions have been established for mobilisation, and we aimed to send the best sergeants and officers from each brigade to train these men. It’s crucial to understand that mobilisation means we prepare these people for ourselves. Every battalion and brigade commander understood this, discussed it, and sent some of our best," concluded Vladimir Sobipan.
Photos courtesy of GSAFU on Facebook
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The SBU neutralised the FSB agent network in Odesa
In Odesa, the press service of the SBU reported that it had neutralised an agent group of the FSB, which was scouting the locations of air defence systems. Nikvesti.com reports
In order to establish the appropriate coordinates, the agents systematically visited the regional centre and its surrounding areas. If «necessary» objects were found, they were secretly photographed and the corresponding geolocations were marked on Google maps.
They also installed wireless magnetic cameras on the territory of the Odessa seaport.
For the conspiracy, the two agents, who are also soldiers of the AFU used a taxi, and the accomplice disguised her appearance with wigs.
A local resident accomplice was apprehended in her own home after conducting reconnaissance near a potential target.
The SBU also carried out comprehensive measures to secure the locations of Ukrainian troops. During the searches, mobile phones were seized from the detainees, which they had purchased and used exclusively for communication with the FSB. The investigators informed the suspects that they are currently in custody and face life imprisonment.
Ukrainian air base under frequent fire as Russia aims at F-16 arrivals
Explosions reverberated across the pre-dawn sky as Ukrainian air defences fended off a Russian attack on this small city in western Ukraine, home to an important air base and a frequent target of Moscow's strikes. Reuters reports.
Hours after the assault, the tidy streets of Starokostiantyniv had returned to a semblance of normality.
But the June 27 attack was a stark reminder of the challenges Kyiv faces as it rebuilds its depleted air force and deploys the first U.S.-designed F-16s - fighter aircraft that Russia will be determined to ground or destroy.
The first planes are expected to arrive this month, and Ukraine hopes they will boost forces struggling to repel a Russian onslaught along the front line, which includes devastating glide bombs that F-16s could potentially disrupt.
Officials have not revealed where the F-16s will be based, but Moscow said after the strike on Starokostiantyniv last Thursday that it had targeted airfields it believed would house them.
The air base has come under frequent attack since the first days of Russia's February 2022 invasion, including from drones and hypersonic missiles.
A Ukrainian air force spokesman said the strikes presented "certain difficulties", but would not undermine the delivery of F-16s or their use in battle.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Nothing to report.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
Germany and Poland agree to boost defence cooperation, coordination of Ukraine aid
Berlin and Warsaw have reaffirmed their security cooperation in a joint action plan, Reuters reported on July 2.
Pro-European politicians must act decisively in tackling issues of concern to ordinary voters like illegal migration to counter rising nationalism, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on Tuesday, after far-right gains in French and EU elections.
Tusk was speaking alongside Chancellor Olaf Scholz after intergovernmental consultations between the Polish and German cabinets as they look to deepen ties.
France, the third member of the 'Weimar Triangle' grouping, is reeling from the far-right's victory in Sunday's first round of its parliamentary election.
"The French election is not the only quite critical moment, in many places we can see the growth of forces that do not hide their eurosceptic attitude," Tusk told a joint news conference with Scholz in Warsaw.
"That is why it is so important that moderate, reasonable, pro-European forces... find convincing answers to what has become important for ordinary people - the effective fight against illegal migration, security, greater economic sustainability, increased industrial coordination."
Scholz said he was sure that relations between Paris, Berlin and Warsaw would remain strong despite Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally (RN) party making historic gains in France, which will hold a second round of voting next Sunday.
"We are of course two very pro-European nations and two very pro-European governments," Scholz said of Poland and Germany. "We know that our future can only succeed together with Europe and that is also the basis for why, in my view, we have reached very concrete agreements on what we will do next."
Following Tuesday's intergovernmental talks, the first since 2018, Germany and Poland presented a joint action plan in which they agreed to discuss boosting defence cooperation, including a stronger NATO presence on the alliance's eastern border, and the coordination of Ukraine aid.
Relations between Berlin and Warsaw have warmed since Tusk's pro-European coalition came to power in December, ending eight years of nationalist rule in Poland during which the Law and Justice government regularly painted Germany as a hostile force.
German Foreign Minister: Ukraine aid is not “charity gesture” but rather “investment” in European security
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock expressed frustration with narratives framing aid to Ukraine as “charity gesture”, arguing instead that it constitutes a crucial investment in Germany’s own national security and the preservation of peace and liberty in Europe. Euromaidan Press reported.
Baerbock warned that without continued support for Ukraine, Russia’s aggression could expand into EU and NATO territories and that the cost of inaction would be far higher for European security and freedom.
She emphasised the need to robustly support Ukraine and uphold peace in Europe.
“We will defend our Europe – every square centimetre of our Europe – and our freedom,” she said at a conference on Germany’s National Security Strategy in Berlin.
Baerbock stated that the security of Europe is the greatest national interest, underscoring her view that backing Ukraine aligns with Germany’s core strategic priorities.
Germany has also recently shifted its policy to allow Ukraine to use German-supplied weapons to strike military targets within Russian territory.
MILITARY & TECH
Four Ukrainian brigades receive 82-mm mortars from the Come Back Alive Foundation
The Come Back Alive Foundation has delivered a batch of Ukrainian-made 82-mm mortars to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Militarnyi reports.
The Foundation reported about this on its Facebook page. The 16 Ukrainian-made mortars were distributed among four brigades of the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
The Come Back Alive Foundation said that four mortars were delivered to the soldiers of the 28th Separate Mechanised Brigade. The 58th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade received six mortars. Four more 82-mm mortars reinforced the 54th Mechanised Brigade. Two mortars were also transferred to a reconnaissance battalion of the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
The money for the weapons was raised through a fundraiser from the Honey and Zavertaylo establishments.These mortars cost UAH 7,652,160 donated by partners and Ukrainian citizens who support the army in the fight against the Russian invaders.
“Mortars are still relevant and remain one of the most needed types of weapons. We need hundreds and thousands of them! And we are ready to buy them for the army,” the Come Back Alive Foundation emphasised.
Previously, the Come Back Alive Foundation delivered drones and mortars to the 10th Mountain Assault Brigade.
F-16 Fighters will soon be on the Way to Ukraine, The Netherlands Has Received Export Licence
The first Dutch F-16 fighter jets may soon be sent to Ukraine, as the necessary export licence has already been issued. Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren announced this in the House of Representatives. Defense Express reports.
“The Netherlands has handed over 24 F-16 fighters to Ukraine, which urgently needs these aircraft for protection against russian air attacks,” Kajsa Ollongren stated.
Although the F-16 aircraft will be delivered to Ukraine shortly, the exact date remains undisclosed. The House of Representatives will be informed of the details in a classified manner.
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