UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-02-23
Slava Ukraini! Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 40 sources daily much of which ends up in the script. I will make this Draft available here for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its situation update at 06:00 on Feb. 23 stated that it was day 730 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
During the past day, 101 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 3 missile strikes,83 air strikes, and 152 MLRS attacks across the positions of our troops and settlements. As a result of the Russian attacks, unfortunately, there are dead and wounded among the civilian population. Destruction and damage to residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line.
The Ukrainian Air Force launched air strikes on 6 areas of focus and 3 enemy anti-aircraft missile complexes.
Ukrainian missile units attacked 4 personnel focus areas, 2 air defence facilities, and 1 ground control station.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kup’yans’k axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 5 attacks of the enemy near the settlement Syn’kivka (Kharkiv oblast)
Lyman axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 14 attacks near Terny, and Yampolivka (Donetsk oblast)
Bakhmut axis: Ukrainian forces repelled 16 attacks near Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, Andriivka and Toretsk (Donetsk oblast)
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the Avdiivka, Mar’inka, Shaktars’ke, and Zaporizhzhia axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Avdiivka axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 10 enemy attacks near Orlivka, Sjeverne, Pervomais’ke and Nevel’s’ke (Donetsk oblast).
Mar’inka axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the occupiers in the vicinities of Heorhiivka, Pobjeda and Novomykhailivka (Donetsk oblast). Troops repelled 43 attacks in that area.
Shakhtarske axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 3 attacks south of Zolota-Nyva, (Donetsk oblast)
Zaporizhzhia axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 5 attacks near Robotyne and west of Verbove (Zaporizhzhia oblast).
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Kherson axis: Ukrainian defenders continue to expand the bridgehead. Despite significant losses, the enemy does not abandon its attempts to dislodge Ukrainian troops from their positions. Over the past day, the enemy carried out 4 unsuccessful assaults on the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Ukraine has five times fewer losses than Russia
US TV channel Fox News broadcast an interview with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Feb. 22. The interviewer asked the Ukrainian leader if he knew what Ukraine’s losses in this war were. Zelenskyy did not mention a specific number. He did however mention a ratio of casualties.
“We know about tens of thousands of people have been killed. Tens of thousands of children have been deported, we know about this. The ratio is one to five. One Ukrainian soldier killed in action equals five Russian soldiers killed in action."
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine
Russian overnight attack kills 4, injures 26
Russian drones and missiles hit residential buildings, warehouses, cars, garages, a boarding school in Odesa, Dnipro, Donetsk , Mykolaiv, Kherson oblasts, killing four civilians and injuring 26 others, local authorities reported on 23 February. No casualties were reported Mykolaiv and Kherson attacks. Euromaidan reported.
The Russian military attacked Odesa on the late night of 22 February using Shahed-131/136 drones, Kh-31 and Kh-22 missiles, killing three people, local governor Serhii Kiper said.
Russia also launched a drone attack on Dnipro overnight into 23 February, injuring eight people, governor Serhii Lysak said. The attack also resulted in damage to enterprises, residential buildings, outbuildings, and power grids. People may still be trapped in the rubble.
In Kharkiv, Russian troops hit agricultural enterprises with drones, damaging a barn and killing 15 cows, governor Syniehubov said. Over the past day, Russia launched an attack on 20 settlements in the oblast.
Russian military attacked three districts in Donetsk Oblast, injuring 18 people and killing one in Pokrovsk district, injuring one citizen in Bakhmut district, governor Filashkin said. The attacks over the past day damaged a dozen residential buildings and a boarding school.
The AFU reported that the Russian military attacked Ukraine overnight with 31 UAV drones of the Shahed type, three anti-aircraft guided missiles S-300, an anti-radar missile Kh-31P and two cruise missiles Kh-22, Ukraine’s Air Forces reported on 23 February.
Ukraine’s air forces downed 23 out of 31 UAV drones.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Putin dusts off Ukraine playbook for Moldova
After two years of a bloody war in Ukraine, the Kremlin appears to be contemplating an attack on Moldova as well. This former Soviet republic borders Ukraine and is home to the self-proclaimed Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (Transnistria) – a region similar to Russian-occupied Donbas.
Euromaidan Press reviewed Russian propaganda statements and compared them with the rhetoric preceding the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
On 14 February in the Russian State Duma, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov made statements about Moldova practically repeating what the Kremlin said on the eve of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine:
The Moldovan leadership is yet another Western geopolitical project of the United States and European Union;
The West demands that Moldova choose between the EU and Russia, while considering Transnistria a “hostile pro-Russian enclave.”
The West halted the 5+2 negotiation process on Transnistria, which included Russia, Ukraine, Transnistria, Moldova and the OSCE as mediators, as well as the EU and US as observers.
Russia will not allow the Transnistria issue to be resolved without it.
There are 200,000 Russian citizens living in Transnistria. Moscow is concerned about their fate and will not allow them to become victims of “yet another Western adventure.”
Previously, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova claimed Moldovan authorities are trying to economically “strangle” Transnistria and prevent a diplomatic solution to the conflict.
The influential pro-Kremlin military blogger Rybar also recently claimed Moldova is “militarising” to “forcibly reintegrate” Transnistria, an effort for which Russia must prepare.
The self-proclaimed Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (Transnistria) was formed after the collapse of the USSR. Mostly-Russian-speaking region declared independence from Moldova over fears Chisinau could seek reunification with neighbouring Romania, with which it shares a common history and language.
A brief armed conflict then erupted between Transnistrian separatists backed by Russian troops on one side, and Moldovan forces on the other, ending in victory for the separatists and Russian army. Although not officially recognizing Transnistria’s sovereignty, Russia provides military, economic, political and diplomatic support.
WORLD NEWS
US estimates Ukraine military shortages could grow catastrophic by late March
By spring, Ukraine faces a potentially catastrophic shortage of ammunition and air defenses that could effectively turn the tide of the war and lend Russian President Vladimir Putin a significant advantage, according to an internal U.S. estimate. ABC News reports.
Speaking on condition of anonymity, two U.S. officials described "late March" as being a particularly crucial time for the fate of Ukrainian troops if Congress doesn't pass a new aid bill. A third official said it would be difficult to pinpoint exactly when the situation for Ukrainian troops could worsen but noted that the shortages were expected to grow more dire through spring.
The U.S. assessment comes nearly two years after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and as support for Ukraine in Congress and in the American public is fading. The once-steady flow of cash and weapons from the U.S. -- totaling some $44 billion since the invasion -- has mostly dried up. A separate $60 billion aid package requested by President Joe Biden and passed by the Senate is in limbo in the House as some Republicans loyal to Donald Trump question America's commitment to another far-away conflict entering its third year.
The White House this week directly blamed the hold up for Russia's victory in the eastern city of Avdiivka. The town fell to last weekend after Ukrainian troops there were forced to ration ammunition, handing the Kremlin its first major military victory since last May.
"It was because of congressional inaction," said White House National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby on Ukraine's loss. "And we've been warning Congress that if they didn't act, Ukraine would suffer losses on the battlefield and here you go. That's what happened this weekend."
"The things that are protected today -- they will not be able to protect all of these locations in the future if they don't maintain supplies of interceptors," the senior defense official said. And if Russia gains control of the skies, "it completely changes the nature of this fight."
Added one Ukrainian official: "Our primary goal is to deter Russian aviation. If we can't do that, it's time to pack our things."
France’s Macron to host Ukraine summit in Paris on Monday
Reuters reports that French President Emmanuel Macron will host a number of European leaders and government representatives for a meeting on Ukraine in Paris on Monday, his office said.
"Two years after the start of the invasion of Ukraine, this working meeting will be an opportunity to study ways to boost the cooperation between partners in support to Ukraine," the Elysee palace said on Thursday.
French officials say Macron is determined to send a message to Moscow that there is no "Ukraine fatigue" in Europe despite fears over continued US support.
Polish Foreign Minister warns US of "profound consequences" if aid to Ukraine is not approved
Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski has warned the US of "profound consequences" for US allies around the world if Congress fails to approve more than US$60 billion in aid to Ukraine in an interview with Bloomberg.
"If the supplemental doesn’t go through, and US allies are disappointed and get the idea that the United States might not be able to deliver help even if the commander-in-chief wants to help you, that would have profound consequences for America’s global alliance. Some countries will start hedging their bets, and others will consider developing their own nuclear weapons programs."
— Radoslaw Sikorski, Polish Foreign Minister
The warning from Poland's top diplomat comes as EU member states are also trying to provide Ukraine with ammunition. The EU has already postponed its goal of providing Ukraine with 1 million shells by the end of the year. However, Sikorski said that Europe was getting closer to the goal, with a current production capacity of about 850,000 shells per year.
MILITARY & TECH
Ukrainian Defence Forces receive new armoured personnel carriers for evacuation of wounded
Ukraine's Defence Minister Rustem Umierov announced that the Ukrainian Defence Forces have received new M113 armoured personnel carriers equipped to evacuate the wounded from the battlefield.
Umierov said that dozens of these evacuation armoured vehicles have already arrived in Ukraine. Several hundred more are expected in the near future.
The tracked vehicles have much higher cross-country ability, which is why the army needs them most in off-road conditions.
Ukraine to begin production of NATO standard small arms
Ukraine has entered into an agreement with the Czech company Česká Zbrojovka a.s. and a subsidiary of Colt CZ Group SE, having signed a licence transfer agreement. Armyinform reports.
“This will allow the production of NATO standard rifles, in particular the CZ BREN 2 model, in Ukraine and equip the Armed Forces with proven, high-quality standard firearms, which will strengthen their operational capabilities” Ukraine Defence Industry (UOP) announced in a press release
The CZ BREN 2 rifle is used by the military and law enforcement agencies of many countries, such as the Czech and Portuguese armies, the Operational Group of the French National Gendarmerie (GIGN), the Polish Border Guard Service, the Romanian Gendarmerie and more.
The CZ BREN 2 technology transfer facility was presented at the first International Forum of Defense Industries (DFNC1) in Kyiv in late September 2023.
“Technology transfer from NATO member countries is a key moment for our company, driven by a successful international partnership and defence reform. This initiative is an important step towards creating a Free World Arsenal in Ukraine” — stressed the CEO of Ukroboronprom Herman Smetanin.
Grumpy here – The BREN 2 is a world class military assault rifle. CZ is a very good weapons design company with a pedigree of producing excellent firearms like the CZ-75 pistol. Additionally the BREN 2 can be converted to various calibres from NATO standard 5.56 mm to Soviet 5.45 and the older 7.62x39 which will give the AFU more flexibility.
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