UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT

For: 2024-06-25

Jun 25, 2024

Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 60 sources daily, much of which forms the basis of the script. While the Podcast is on hiatus I will make this Draft available here both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.

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ALONG THE CONTACT LINE

GSAFU Morning Report

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 22:00 on June 24 stated that day 853 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.

During the past day, 135 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 6 missile strikes, 52 air strikes, 510 drone strikes and almost 2,700 artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces.

At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deep into the territory of Ukraine.

Air Force and Missile and Artillery units have been conducting strikes in three personnel concentration areas, weapons and military equipment concentration area and an enemy ammunition depot.

The Khortytsia operational-strategic group

(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )

Kharkiv axis: The enemy, supported by aviation, 6 times unsuccessfully attacked in the area of Vovchansk and Lyptsi.

Kupyansk axis: The enemy unsuccessfully attacked Ukrainian positions 7 times in the vicinity of Synkivka, Pischane and Stelmakhivka. The situation is under the control of Defense Forces.

Lyman axis: The enemy attacked Ukrainian positions 20 times in the vicinity of Makiivka, Terny, Torske, the Serebryanskyy Forest and Hyrhorivka

Siversk axis: The enemy attacked the Defense Forces 22 times in the areas of Bilhorivka, Verkhnokamianske, Vyimka and Rozdolivka.

Kramatorsk axis: Ukrainian defenders, over the day, repelled 9 attacks in the vicinity Kalynivka, Chasiv Yar, Ivanivske and Klischivka. The situation is under the control of Ukrainian defenders.

Toretsk axis: Here, the enemy tried to breach Ukrainian defences nine times in the vicinity of Pivnichne and Pivdenne. Eight attacks have been repelled, one is ongoing. The situation is intense.

The Tavria operational-strategic group

(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)

Pokrovsk axis: This continues to be the most severe area of attack.The enemy conducted 45 attacks against Ukrainian defences in this area over the last day in the vicinity of Oleksandropil,Vozdvizhenko, Novooleksandrívka, Sokil, Yevhenívka, Novoselívka Persha and Umanske.

Kurakhove axis: The enemy made several attacks in the vicinity of Karlivka, Krasnohorivka and Paraskoviivka. The situation is under the control of our defenders.

Vremika axis: The enemy 4 times tried to break through Ukrainian defences in the vicinity of Urozhaine. The situation is under control.

Orikhiv axis: The situation has not experienced significant changes.

The Odesa operational-strategic group

(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)

Prydniprovsk axis: The enemy made 5 attempts to breach the defences of Ukrainian forces on the left bank of the Dnipro.

TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES

Nothing to report.

THE HOME FRONT

Zelenskyy - Ukraine starts EU accession negotiations

Ukraine has officially started negotiations on joining the European Union, marking a new historical stage in the country's recent history, despite the Russian invasion. President Zlenskyy has announced,

The first intergovernmental conference between Ukraine and the EU has already been held. The Ukrainian delegation included representatives of the Verkhovna Rada, the Cabinet of Ministers and the Presidential Office. This was announced by President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky in an address on the occasion of the start of negotiations on Ukraine's accession to the EU, reports UNN.

The head of state stressed that this means that Ukraine will certainly be a full member of the European Union. Now the question is technical work, adaptation of our system to the EU and the political will of Europe to make the European project truly perfect.

"This is possible only with Ukraine as part of a united Europe – a Europe of values, a Europe without splits, ideological walls and "gray zones", a Europe of peace – a real peace. I thank everyone who supports Ukraine on this path, who helps and who fights for Ukraine," the president said.

Ukraine applied to join the European Union on February 28, 2022 – the fifth day of a full-scale Russian invasion. In June of the same year, the European Council granted our country the status of a candidate for membership, and last year in December, the European Union decided to open negotiations with Ukraine.

"There are thousands of meetings and calls between these steps. Conditions that Ukraine has fully fulfilled. Laws that were passed and worked. And the most important thing is the determination of our people, our people," Volodymyr Zelensky summed up.

Zelenskyy sacks general accused of incompetence

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has dismissed a top general after public criticism about excessive casualties and accusations of incompetence. BBC reports.

Lt Gen Yuriy Sodol had been in the post of commander of the Joint Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine since earlier this year.Brigadier Gen Andriy Hnatov has now been appointed in his stead.

The President did not give a reason for his decision, which he announced during his nightly video address on Monday. However, only hours before, the chief of staff of the Azov Brigade, Maj Bohdan Krotevych, filed a complaint to the State Bureau of Investigation (SBI), alleging that Gen Sodol "had more Ukrainian soldiers killed than any Russian general".

Maj Krotevych wrote on Telegram that Gen Sodol was "not being investigated for the loss of regions and dozens of cities and the loss of thousands of soldiers".

"Sometimes it seems to me that the world sends us scum [to fight against] in order to unite us," Maj Krotevych wrote. "And the whole military understand who I'm talking about because 99% of the military hate him for what he does."

Maj Krotevych's post on Telegram was viewed over 800,000 times. He later praised the appointment of Gen Hnatov, saying he was a "very worthy officer".

Following Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022, Gen Sodol took part in the defence of the city of Mariupol and battles near the eastern Ukrainian town of Volnovakha. Both locations are now under Russian control. He was made commander of the Joint Forces since February 2024, when Oleksandr Syrskyy was appointed commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces.

RUSSIAN WORLD

Ukrainian Navy Reveals Details of Strike on Warehouse in Krasnodar, Russia

The Ukrainian Navy provided updated information on the June 21 destruction of a drone warehouse and related infrastructure in russia’s Krasnodar region, Defense Express reports.

“On June 21, the Naval Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in collaboration with the Security Service of Ukraine, conducted a strike on facilities at the military training ground of the 726th Air Defense Training Center (Military Unit 33859) in Yeysk, Krasnodar Territory. This centre is responsible for training military personnel in the operation of various types of UAVs," announced the Ukrainian Navy in a Facebook post.

According to the Ukrainian Navy, the strike resulted in the destruction of:

- Shahed-136/Geran-2 - 20 units;
- Lancet attack UAV - 50 units;
- ZALA reconnaissance UAV - 40 units;
- SuperCam reconnaissance UAV - 10 units.

Additionally, there are fatalities among the instructors and technical staff from Yelabuga.

Kremlin attempts to play down Dagestan terror attacks

US think tank The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in its June 28 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment stated that The Kremlin is attempting to maintain a veneer of stability and normalcy in response to the Dagestan terror attack.

Kremlin spokesman Peskov stated that Putin does not plan to make a special address concerning the strikes in Sevastopol or the attack in Dagestan — in contrast to Putin's March 25 lengthy speech following the terrorist attack at Crocus City Hall in Moscow.

Peskov responded to a journalist asking if the Kremlin fears the return of the situation of the early 2000s (presumably referencing a series of terrorist attacks in Russia, including the 2002 Nord-Ost siege, 2004 Moscow Metro bombing, and 2004 Beslan school siege), stating that the Kremlin does not fear a return to this situation as Russia is different now and Russian society is "absolutely consolidated" in its lack of support for terrorist attacks in Dagestan or Russia in general.

Dagestan Head Sergei Melikov stated that the terrorist attack against Dagestan's "brotherhood, multinational unity, and confessional indivisibility" is an attempt to divide Dagestan but "this [division] will not happen."

The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) claimed that the terrorists in Dagestan were attempting to create interreligious discord but that Russia will continue its fight against terrorism.

Chechen Akhmat Spetsnaz Commander Apty Alaudinov similarly claimed that the attack aimed to cause interreligious conflict but that other Russian regions, such as Chechnya, have already proven that Russia can effectively resist such conflicts.

The Kremlin has repeatedly promoted the idea that Russia is a harmonious multinational and multireligious state, despite increasing xenophobic rhetoric from Russia's vocal ultranationalist community and growing societal tensions.

This Kremlin facade of normalcy and stability also ignores the October 2023 antisemitic riots in Dagestan (including in Makhachkala, one of the locations of the June 23 attack), the March 2024 Crocus City Hall terrorist attack in Moscow, and the increasingly frequent counterterrorism operations in the North Caucasus.

NEWS WORLDWIDE

International Criminal Court issues arrest warrants for Shoigu, Gerasimov

The International Criminal Court (ICC) announced on June 25 that it has issued arrest warrants for Sergei Shoigu, secretary of Russia's Security Council, and Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff of the Russian army, for war crimes against Ukraine. The Kyiv Independent reports.

Shoigu served as Russia's Defense Minister at the time of the alleged crimes. Shoigu was replaced in May by Andrei Belousov, a former economy minister with no previous military experience, after serving as defence minister since 2012.

Shoigu and Gerasimov are charged with the war crimes of "directing attacks at civilian objects," "causing excessive incidental harm to civilians or damage to civilian objects," and the "crime against humanity of inhumane acts."

The charges relate to Russian strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure between October 2022 and March 2023, the ICC said.

The charges against Shoigu and Gerasimov follow similar arrest warrants issued against two lower-ranking Russian commanders deemed allegedly responsible for carrying out strikes on Ukraine's electrical infrastructure during the same time period.

Lieutenant General Sergei Kobylash and Admiral Viktor Sokolov "are each allegedly responsible" for a number of war crimes, including "directing attacks at civilian objects," the ICC said in March 2024.

The European Court of Human Rights finds Russia guilty of violating human rights in occupied Qirim

The European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) found Russia guilty on June 25 of committing a "pattern or system of violations" of human rights in occupied Qirim since the peninsula was illegally annexed in 2014.

Ukraine argued that Russia had engaged in a "campaign of repression," which included "disappearances; ill-treatment; unlawful detention; impossibility to opt out of Russian citizenship; suppression of Ukrainian media and of the Ukrainian language in schools; pre-trial detention in overcrowded conditions; prosecution and conviction on fabricated charges without a fair trial in reprisal for any pro-Ukrainian stance; and, transfers from Qirim to prisons in Russia."

The court unanimously ruled that Russia was guilty of violating 11 different articles of the European Convention of Human Rights:

the right to life
the prohibition of inhuman or degrading treatment
the right to liberty and security
the right to a fair trial
no punishment without law
the right to respect for private and family life
freedom of religion
freedom of expression
freedom of assembly
prohibition of discrimination
limitation on (the) use of restrictions on rights

The court also found that Russia had violated three protocols of the European Convention: the protection of property, the right to education, and the freedom of movement.

Lastly, the ECHR ruled that Russia had failed in its obligations to "furnish necessary facilities for the examination of the case" and that Russia "had to take measures as soon as possible" to bring back prisoners illegally transferred from occupied Crimea to Russia.

Trump plans to halt US military aid to Kyiv unless it talks peace with Moscow

Two key advisers to Donald Trump have presented him with a plan to end Russia's war in Ukraine - if he wins the presidential election - that involves telling Ukraine it will only get more U.S. weapons if it enters into peace talks. Reuters reports.

The United States would at the same time warn Moscow that any refusal to negotiate would result in increased U.S. support for Ukraine, retired Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg, one of Trump's national security advisers, said in an interview.

Under the plan drawn up by Kellogg and Fred Fleitz, who both served as chiefs of staff in Trump's National Security Council during his 2017-2021 presidency, there would be a ceasefire based on prevailing battle lines during peace talks.

They have presented their strategy to Trump, and the former president responded favourably, Fleitz said. "I'm not claiming he agreed with it or agreed with every word of it, but we were pleased to get the feedback we did," he said.

The Kremlin said that any peace plan proposed by a possible future Trump administration would have to reflect the reality on the ground but that Russian President Vladimir Putin remained open to talks.

"The value of any plan lies in the nuances and in taking into account the real state of affairs on the ground," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Reuters.

"President Putin has repeatedly said that Russia has been and remains open to negotiations, taking into account the real state of affairs on the ground," he said. "We remain open to negotiations."

Kellogg said it would be crucial to get Russia and Ukraine to the negotiating table quickly if Trump wins the election.

"We tell the Ukrainians, 'You've got to come to the table, and if you don't come to the table, support from the United States will dry up,'" he said. "And you tell Putin, 'He's got to come to the table and if you don't come to the table, then we'll give Ukrainians everything they need to kill you in the field.'"

MILITARY & TECH