UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-01-24
Slava Ukraini! Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 40 sources daily much of which ends up in the script. I will make this Draft available here for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its situation update at 06:00 on Jan. 24 stated that it was day 700 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
During the past day, 56 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 48 missile strikes, 112 air strikes, and 73 MLRS attacks across the positions of our troops and settlements. As a result of the Russian attacks, unfortunately, there are dead and wounded among the civilian population. Destruction and damage to residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure.
Russia loses 400 soldiers per square kilometer in Ukraine, Umerov says
In a recent address during the opening of the Defense Contact Group meeting (Ramstein format), Ukraine’s Minister of Defense Rustem Umerov highlighted Ukraine’s resilience in the face of Russian aggression.
He pointed out that despite Russia’s significant military operations, they struggled to achieve their objectives and suffered heavy losses.
Umerov stated that Russia is currently losing approximately 400 soldiers for every square kilometer of Ukrainian territory captured. Additionally, Russia used six times more artillery shells than Ukrainian forces, yet it took them a year to capture Bakhmut and Mariinka.
Umerov highlighted the significance of defense technologies, which will play a central role in Ukraine’s defense agenda for 2024. He pointed out that while Russia had invested heavily in FPV drones, Ukraine had made progress in developing its countermeasures.
Despite facing thousands of rocket attacks from Russia in recent months, Umerov mentioned that Ukraine’s air defense capabilities had improved significantly. The country had also focused on building fortifications and investing in technologies to enhance its defense.
“We can outsmart the enemy by applying an asymmetric approach. Through technology integration, training, precise decision-making, and coordination. By improving personnel selection, supply chain management, and digital solutions. This will provide us with technological and strategic superiority,”
Rustem Umerov — Ukrainian Minister of Defense
Russian forces fail to break out of positional warfare due to Ukrainian technological advances
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in its Jan. 23 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment stated that Russian forces are struggling to compensate for Ukrainian drone and rear-area strikes at the level necessary to break out of positional warfare.
Russian sources stated on January 23 that Russian forces need to figure out how to break out of positional warfare but that Russian forces are unable to concentrate in numbers sufficient to break through Ukrainian lines because Ukrainian forces strike all force concentrations larger than a battalion.
The source claimed that Ukrainian forces target Russian force concentrations even in near rear areas. They also reported that Ukrainian forces still target small Russian groups of one-to-two infantry companies and of 10 armored vehicles with drone strikes, preventing Russian forces from even reaching Ukrainian forward defensive lines. Russian forces’ only solution thus far has been to attack with 10-20 dismounted infantrymen with armored vehicles supporting at an “extreme” distance behind the infantry.
Several Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian technological advancements have made it difficult for Russian forces to concentrate several divisions in a discrete geographic area without Ukrainian forces detecting the force concentration.
Numerous Russian sources complain about a lack of co-ordinated command and control. ISW concludes There are currently no indications that the Russian military command has materially improved on any of these identified issues at the operational level necessary to break through a positional front in one or more areas of the theater. Russian forces have recently proven themselves capable of making marginal tactical advances during intensified offensive efforts even with these systemic issues, however, particularly near Kupyansk in Kharkiv Oblast and Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group is responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine.
Kup’yans’k axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 1 attack of the enemy near the settlement of Synkivka, (Kharkiv oblast).
Lyman axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 4 attacks of the occupiers near Yampolivka, (Luhansk oblast) and 2 attacks near the Serebryansky forest and Bilogorivka (Donetsk oblast).
Bakhmut axis: Ukrainian forces repelled 7 attacks near Bohdanivka, Klishchiivka and Ivanivske (Donetsk oblast)
The Tavria operational-strategic group is responsible for the Avdiivka, Mar’inka, Shaktars’ke, and Zaporizhzhia axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.
Ukrainian defenders destroy 200 Russian drones on the Tavriia front in one day
Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, Commander of the Tavriia Operational Strategic Group stated that a total of 200 Russian drones have been damaged or destroyed on the Tavriia front over the past day.
The enemy conducted 39 airstrikes, engaged in 36 clashes and launched 919 artillery attacks. In total, the occupiers lost 394 soldiers
The Russians also lost 5 tanks, 14 armoured combat vehicles, 15 artillery systems, a multiple-launch rocket system, an air defence system, 16 vehicles and 2 units of special vehicles and other equipment on the Tavriia front over the past day.
Ukraine’s Defence Forces destroyed an ammunition storage point, a fuel and lubricants depot, and one other important Russian target.
Avdiivka axis: Ukrainian defenders continue to hold back the enemy who keeps trying to encircle Avdiivka. AFU soldiers are standing their ground and inflicting major losses on the invaders. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 5 enemy attacks near Novobakhmutivka, Stepove, Avdiivka, and 11 near Pervomais’ke and Nevel’s’ke (Donetsk oblast).
Intense pressure on Avdiivka but Russian forces never entered the city
Vitaliy Barabash, head of the Avdiivka City Military Administration. Stated that Despite facing relentless assaults, Avdiivka has repelled the attempts by Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups to infiltrate the city.
In a statement made on “Ukrainska Pravda Live,” Barabash reported, “Right now, they are simply storming in this direction. It’s no longer about sabotage groups; these are full-scale assault operations… From the first days of the full-scale invasion, maybe after two or three weeks, the first sabotage groups tried to enter the city. And it’s been almost constant since then. There have been many such attempts during this period.”
Barabash added that Russians couldn’t enter and never managed to get into the city. “There have been many attempts thwarted on the approaches (to the city) – in the process, they almost reached the populated area and were also eliminated. Up to this moment, no group has entered the city,” he added.
Detailing the situation at the “Tsarska Ohota” restaurant, Barabash mentioned that this suburban complex was breached by Russian groups, but they were driven out: Ukrainian forces have controlled the complex for 2-3 days now.
Mar’inka axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the occupiers in the vicinities of Heorhiivka and Novomykhailivka (Donetsk oblast). Troops repelled 16 attacks in that area
Shakhtarske axis: The enemy did not conduct any offensive (assault) operations.
Zaporizhzhia axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 4 attacks south of Chervone, west of Verbove and near Robotyne (Zaporizhzhia oblast).
The Odesa operational-strategic group is responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.
Kherson axis: Ukrainian defenders continue to expand the bridgehead. Despite significant losses, the enemy does not abandon its attempts to dislodge Ukrainian troops from their positions. Over the past day, the enemy carried 7 unsuccessful assaults on the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Ukraine's gas company reports largest gas pipeline hit in Kharkiv since winter onset
Ukrainian state-run national oil and gas company Naftogaz reported that on 23 January, a direct hit targeted a medium-pressure gas pipeline on the territory of Kharkiv. Throughout this winter, there have been no similar-scale impacts on the city's gas distribution infrastructure.
"The emergency dispatch teams of Gazmerezhi (Ukraine's first national gas distribution operator) immediately started the process of recovery after the accident. The work at the site will continue until all the consequences are dealt with; the fire has been extinguished," Naftogaz emphasised.
However, the supply of gas to the homes of Kharkiv residents will only be restored after all consequences of the Russian attack are dealt with, and the repair work is completed.
The Ministry of Energy said that some gas pipelines have been shut down to stabilise the pressure. Twelve buildings have been disconnected from the gas supply.
There were no casualties or injuries among the power engineers. However, nearly 11,000 consumers are without electricity because of Russian strikes in Kharkiv. The equipment of the local electricity distribution system operator has been damaged – transformer substations, distribution points, and cable lines.
THE RUSSIAN WORLD
Plane with 65 Ukrainian POWs crashes near Belgorod – Russian media
Russian media, citing the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, report the crash of an IL-76 military transport aircraft with 65 Ukrainian military prisoners and nine Russians in Belgorod region.
The plane crashed at about 10:00 on Wednesday while performing a scheduled flight. There were allegedly 65 captured servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on board, transported to Belgorod region for exchange, six crew members of the aircraft and three escorts.
Russian Crude Shipments Hit by Storms and Baltic Drone Strike
Bloomberg reported Russia’s seaborne crude shipments fell to the lowest in almost two months, undermined by adverse weather and a Ukrainian drone strike that halted flows from a key Baltic export terminal.
About 3.36 million barrels a day of crude were shipped from Russian ports in the four weeks to Jan. 21, tanker-tracking data monitored by Bloomberg show. That was down by 50,000 barrels a day from the revised figure for the period to Jan. 14.
The more volatile weekly average fell by 340,000 barrels a day to a seven-week low of 3.02 million. Exports were hit by continuing bad weather at some ports and a Ukrainian drone strike on a condensate processing facility adjacent to the Ust-Luga crude export terminal.
Port maintenance and more poor weather may depress shipments again this week, while the drone attack has opened up a new front in Moscow’s war on Ukraine that highlights the vulnerability of oil exports from Russia’s western ports.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
NATO countries must prioritize security of their societies to defeat Russia, Zelenskyy says
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated he believes that victory over Russia in its war against Ukraine can be achieved once every NATO member country fully commits to ending this war as if it were their own battle. Zelenskyy expressed this opinion while engaging in a joint discussion with the Polish Prime Minister, addressing students from various Ukrainian universities.
"Ukraine is not in NATO, because there are indeed several skeptical countries. What is this group of states afraid of? They fear escalation from Russia. This is an official such statement. But I can't tell now which countries they are. You are smart, you yourself will understand,"
I'll tell you why. Because they say there will be an escalation from Russia. That is, it says that this war is not theirs, which is happening now. And that's why I think it's humiliating and treacherous towards Ukraine. Because when someone says that there will be an escalation, we are afraid, it says specifically that now we are here [in an escalation, war], where about a third of the territory is occupied and how many people have died. And this suggests that this is not an escalation for them. That is, this is not a war for everyone, even for those who help you and who believe that Russia is an occupier,"
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine
Ukraine will have more long-range weapons - Defense Ministry after Ramstein-18
Ilarion Pavliuk, head of the Press and Information Department of the Ministry of Defense said that Ukraine’s partners have a full understanding that Ukraine needs more long-range weapons at a briefing in Kyiv, pointing out that special attention at the Ramstein-18 meeting was paid to "deep strike weapon, that is, systems that allow hitting beyond the line of contact, and there is a full understanding of the partners that we need this weapon."
"The commitment to work to provide Ukraine with more weapons for such attacks was absolutely clearly assumed by the partners, they talked about it, they paid special attention to it," he said.
Pavliuk also noted air defense, pointing out that Ukraine and its partners are "creative in solving existing problems."
"Besides the fact that Ukraine will receive a sufficient number of missiles for existing systems, partners, more than one country, are already working on upgrading Western missiles to existing Soviet-style launch systems and anti-aircraft systems," he explained.
"On long-term support, first of all, I would like to emphasize what areas: this is the development of the capabilities of the Air Force. By the way, today it was not only the receipt of F-16 aircraft, which everyone knows about. The development of the capabilities of the Air Force also applies to helicopters, today it was clearly voiced, and also unmanned platforms," he said at a briefing in Kyiv.
Slovakia to support EUR 50 billion Ukraine Facility vetoed by Hungary
During their meeting in Ukraine’s westernmost regional capital of Uzhhorod on 24 January, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal and his Slovakian counterpart, Robert Fico, agreed on several matters, notably Slovakia’s backing for the Ukraine Facility, the EU’s 50 billion euro aid package for Ukraine, vetoed by Hungary in December. Ukrinform reports.
Pro-Russian Robert Fico won Slovakia’s parliamentary elections this fall, repeatedly promising to halt weapons supplies to Ukraine. As Hungary, a key Russian ally in the EU, impedes the Bloc’s aid for Ukraine and resists Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic ambitions, Slovakia’s PM reportedly will not join Hungary in blocking the EU’s aid to Ukraine. Nevertheless, Fico has so far stopped his country’s military support to Ukraine and opposes Ukraine’s NATO accession.
“We have reached agreement with Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico on a number of important issues. The Slovak government will not block the purchase of weapons and equipment by Ukraine from Slovak companies. Slovakia will support the Ukraine Facility programme, which envisages the provision of 50 billion euros by the EU for Ukraine.
Ukraine and Slovakia will pursue fruitful cooperation for the sake of the security and prosperity of our countries. We are grateful to the Slovak people, who have been helping Ukraine and Ukrainians in these difficult times,” Shmyhal wrote on Twitter
20 Days in Mariupol documentary nominated for Oscar
The film 20 Days in Mariupol by Mstyslav Chernov, Yevhen Malolietka and Vasylisa Stepanenko has been nominated for an Oscar in the Best Documentary category.
The news was announced at a live broadcast of the American Film Academy.
Earlier, the film was shortlisted for the Oscars in the Best Documentary and Best Foreign Language Film categories.
On 12 January 2024, Mstyslav Chernov was nominated for the Directors Guild of America (DGA) Awards 2024. He was recognised for his work as a director of the documentary 20 Days in Mariupol.
The film has also received a number of nominations and awards at world film festivals. The Cinema Eye Awards for achievements in non-fiction and documentary films and series nominated 20 Days in Mariupol for outstanding achievements in several categories: Nonfiction Feature Filmmaking, Editing, Production, Debut Feature Film and Audience Choice Award.
MILITARY & TECH
Canada to provide naval boats and F-16 training support to Ukraine
On Tuesday, January 23, 2024, Canada’s Minister of Defense, Bill Blair, announced a new package of military assistance for Ukraine during the 18th meeting of the Contact Group on Defense Issues (Ramstein format). This includes the transfer of Canadian instructors to assist in the training of Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighter jets.
As reported by European Pravda, the military assistance package, valued at approximately $15 million, consists of 10 rigid-hull inflatable boats from Zodiac Hurricane Technologies.
These boats, a favourite of Canadian Special Forces, will aid Ukraine in operations such as search and rescue, troop and cargo transport, surveillance, and reconnaissance.
Each boat provided by Canada will be equipped with modern sensor, navigation, and communication systems. Additionally, Canada will facilitate the training of Ukrainian military personnel on these boats, with the expectation that Ukraine will receive them by the end of spring 2024.
Germany to provide Ukraine with helicopters
Germany, for the first time, will transfer military helicopters to Ukraine. This announcement was made by German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius following the 18th meeting of the Contact Group on Defense Issues in the “Ramstein” format. According to “European Pravda” citing DPA, Pistorius stated that Germany would be providing Ukraine with decommissioned Sea King Mk41 multi-purpose military helicopters.
The provision of Sea King helicopters is expected to enhance Ukraine’s military capabilities, particularly in reconnaissance and transportation, contributing to a stronger defense posture in the ongoing war.
Ukraine is set to receive six Sea King Mk41 helicopters along with a set of spare parts. The German side will also provide training for Ukrainian military personnel. Defense Minister Pistorius emphasized the proven reliability of the Sea King helicopters, noting their versatility in multiple areas, including reconnaissance over the Black Sea and troop transportation. This marks the first German delivery of such equipment.
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