UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2023-12-31
Slava Ukraini! For the past six months I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 40 sources daily much of which ends up in the Ukraine War Written Brief. While this is going through a period of transition I will make this Draft available here for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group is responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine.
Ukrainian defenders repel Russian attacks on the Kupiansk front
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the evening of Dec.30 stated that Ukrainian defenders repelled eight Russian attacks near the village of Synkivka (Kharkiv Oblast). The Russians also delivered airstrikes near the settlements of Pishchane in Kharkiv Oblast and Novoselivske, Stelmakhivka and Nadiia (Luhansk Oblast).
The Tavria operational-strategic group is responsible for the Avdiivka, Mar’inka, Shaktars’ke, and Zaporizhzhia axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.
Russia makes failed counterattacks in the Bakhmut area
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the evening of Dec.30 stated that Ukrainian troops repelled nine Russian attacks near the settlements of Bohdanivka, Klishchiivka and Andriivka (Donetsk Oblast), where the Russians were attempting to regain their lost ground.
The Odesa operational-strategic group is responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea
Russian made 11 attempts to storm Ukrainian positions on Kherson Oblast's left bank
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the evening of Dec.30 stated that Russian occupying forces launched 11 unsuccessful attacks on Kherson Oblast's left bank on Saturday (30 December). Nevertheless, the Ukrainian Defence Forces are holding their positions.
"The invaders persist in their efforts to drive Ukrainian units out of their footholds on the Dnipro River's left bank. The enemy mounted 11 unsuccessful assaults over the past 24 hours, with our troops continuing to hold their positions and inflict significant losses on the occupiers."
— GSAFU Evening report Dec. 30
Russia claims to repel a naval drone attack on occupied Crimea
The Russian defense ministry said that on the morning of December 30, the Ukrainian Navy sent an unmanned boat to Crimea, but it was allegedly destroyed.
The Russian Defense Ministry claimed that the boat was detected in the northwestern part of the Black Sea, moving in the direction of the Crimean peninsula, and destroyed by a Black Sea Fleet patrol boat.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Over 500 Russian shells hit Kherson Oblast
The Security Service of Ukraine (DSNS) reports Russian attacks in Kherson Oblast, with Russia’s forces launching 536 projectiles of various types in the past 24 hours towards recently de-occupied areas.
Amid the barrages, four fires were recorded. In the city of Kherson, a fire engulfed an administrative building, a private car, as well as utility structures and a garage. Another fire erupted in a garage facility in the Daryivska community.
Russia brazenly uses Poland’s airspace in biggest-yet missile attack on Ukraine
Russia sought to overwhelm Ukraine’s air defenses by using decoy missiles, looping trajectories, and even Poland’s airspace in the massive 29 December strike Euromaidan’s Frontline Report writes.
The main targets of these missiles and drones became the biggest cities in Ukraine: Kyiv, Kharkiv, Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, Odesa, and Lviv. In Kyiv, according to Russian sources, Russian forces struck at least 5 unspecified warehouses, presumably with Ukrainian military equipment.
A Ukrainian Air Force Spokesman reported that they had never seen so many targets on their monitors at the same time. The basic approach was to overwhelm the Ukrainian air defense system and confuse the air defense operators.
Most brazenly in a deliberate provocation Russia routed one missile through Polish airspace for several minutes, before having it turn to hit the western Ukrainian city of Lviv
Ukrainians of course, familiar with Russia’s callus disregard of life expect more strikes. The Ukrainian Armed Forces have been preparing for such a sequence of events, and for the last half a year, they have been focused on improving their air defense as much as possible. That is why, today, Ukrainians did not experience any blackouts or or other major disruptions.
Such a massive strike also served as a precedent for the Western countries to provide even more air defense systems, especially as Russian missiles were once again detected in the sky above the NATO countries, this time only Poland. So, Western countries seem to be interested in ensuring that Ukraine shoots down all Russian missiles before they even get close to the NATO border.
THE RUSSIAN WORLD
Massive Ukrainian drone attack on Russia
On the night of Dec. 30, a massive raid by unknown drones took place in Russia, with Russian air defense operating in various regions, Russian resources report.
A source in Ukraine’s security services told RBC that the strike was a Ukrainian attack on Russian military objects that involved 70 drones of various types. Explosions were heard in Bryansk, Orel, Kursk, and Moscow oblasts. The Russian Defense Ministry said it had allegedly shot down 32 drones.
The drones reportedly targeted Russian defense factories. Drone strikes have become Ukraine’s long-range weapon against Russian targets as Western allies prohibit using their weapons for strikes inside Russian territory.
The source said that the strike especially targeted the electronics plant “Kremniy El” in Bryansk, one of the largest manufacturers of electronics for Russian military equipment, in particular, for long-range missiles and Pantsir air defense systems.
“Russian air defense managed to shoot down a certain number of Ukrainian UAVs, but a significant number of them effectively hit their targets. Unlike Russian terrorist strikes on the territory of Ukraine, the Security and Defense Forces of Ukraine struck exclusively at enemy military targets,”
— A source with Ukrainian Security Services
The 30 December attack was conducted right after Russia’s most-massive yet missile and drone strike on Ukraine, which reportedly targeted Ukraine’s defense enterprises.
Explosions and casualties in downtown Belgorod
Explosions and fires rocked Belgorod’s city center, reportedly attributed to an error by Russian air defense systems, according to sources.
A source within Ukrainian intelligence agencies, stated that while Ukrainian defense forces were engaging Russian military targets in the Belgorod region, fragments from the operation mistakenly fell in the city center due to what was described as “unprofessional actions and planned provocations” by Russian air defense.
Details reveal that, following the explosions, ten fires broke out in the city, accompanied by air raid sirens urging residents to seek shelter. Russian authorities reported casualties and injuries among civilians after the operation of Russian anti-aircraft forces, specifically 18 killed and 111 wounded.
Furious Putin “orders commanders to frontline” after 74 sailors killed in Novocherkassk sinking
Vladimir Putin was “in complete rage” over the destruction of the Novocherkassk landing ship and ordered the punishment of Crimea’s air defenses, partisan sources revealed.
Atesh, a Ukrainian partisan group that claims to include agents among Russia’s security services, reported many commanders were expected to be dismissed and sent to “join assault groups on the frontline” in Ukraine, effectively eliminating them.
This followed the December 26 Ukrainian strike on the Novocherkassk in occupied Crimea which killed 74 sailors and injured 27 more, the Russian navy announced Friday.
The partisan sources stated Putin had issued “an order to punish Crimea’s air defense forces” over the loss of the warship. Atesh advised Russian servicemen wanting to avoid punishment to cite equipment malfunctions in maintenance logs, saying Russia could not intercept all Ukrainian missiles despite commander assurances otherwise.
Russia commences construction of naval base in occupied Abkhazia
Russia has initiated the construction of a military naval base in the occupied region of Abkhazia. The project, reportedly underway in the Ochamchira district, involves significant infrastructure development and the deployment of military vessels, reports SOVA — a Georgian news outlet. Below is an illustrative map to show the general location from GrumpyMaps.
Against the background of the strike of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the landing ship « Novocherkassk » in the port of Feodosia (Crimea), information appeared on the network about the start of construction of a naval base in occupied Abkhazia. According to a number of publications, Russia has already begun infrastructure work in Ochamchira and has begun the transfer of warships.
The port, which currently serves as a base for patrol boats of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB), has witnessed a surge in activity. Approximately 50 vessels were observed in the port as of December 26, contrasting with the absence of any ships just a week prior. Notably, the depths of the port have also undergone alterations, as depicted in the images.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
Ghost Ships at Reawakened North Korea Port Put Ukraine in Peril
A dormant North Korean port near the border with Russia has sprung back to life, Bloomberg reports , fueling what experts say is a burgeoning trade in arms destined for the frontlines in Ukraine that is simultaneously bolstering the anemic economy managed by Kim Jong Un.
Satellite imagery of the Najin port taken from October to December shows a steady stream of ships at the facility, hundreds of shipping containers being loaded and unloaded, and rail cars ready to transport goods.
The activity appears to have picked up since early October, when the US accused North Korea of sending munitions to Russia. The White House provided imagery it said showed weapons later being delivered thousands of miles away to a depot in the Russian town of Tikhoretsk for use in Ukraine.
The flow of munitions that the US and South Korea say have included hundreds of thousands of artillery shells could grow far greater in importance as divisions in the US Congress and European Union over military aid threaten Kyiv’s ability to repel Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion.
“Pyongyang’s decision to deliver munitions at scale once again underscores the grave threat that North Korea poses to international security, this time feeding a conflagration on European soil that has already cost the lives of tens of thousands of Ukrainians and consumed tens of billions of dollars in Western military support,”
— Royal United Services Institute (a UK Thinktank)
WP — Russia is working to subvert French support for Ukraine, documents show
Russia has been increasing its efforts to undermine French support for Kyiv, The Washington Post reports — a hidden propaganda front in Western Europe that is part of the war against Ukraine, according to Kremlin documents and interviews with European security officials and far-right political figures.
The maneuvering and Kremlin connections with a host of far-right parties across Europe, including in France, are worrying some European officials ahead of European Parliament elections in June. Josep Borrell, the E.U.’s foreign policy chief, warned at a conference this month that those elections could be “as dangerous as the American ones,” driven by “fear” in response to growing inequality and security threats. “Europe is in danger,” he said.
The Kremlin documents, obtained by a European security service and reviewed by The Washington Post, show that Sergei Kiriyenko, the first deputy chief of staff in President Vladimir Putin’s administration, has tasked Kremlin political strategists with promoting political discord in France through social media and French political figures, opinion leaders and activists. Those figures were not identified by name in the documents seen by The Post. Moscow’s goal is to undermine support for Ukraine and weaken NATO resolve, the documents show. The effort parallels similar interference in Germany, where the Kremlin has attempted to marry the far right and the far left in an antiwar alliance.
The talking points to be amplified by the Kremlin’s strategists included arguing that Western sanctions against Russia have damaged the French economy through a decline in trade, leaving the country at risk of falling into “the deepest social and economic crisis of recent years,” as well as asserting that the supply of arms to Ukraine has left France without the weapons to defend itself.
The documents show that troll farms created by the Kremlin political strategists produced and published social media content and articles critical of Western support for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s government. One note written by one of the strategists in June 2023 directed a troll farm employee to create a “200-character comment by a middle-aged French person” who considers Europe’s support for Ukraine to be “a stupid adventure.” The fictional French person was also supposed to argue that support for Ukraine is turning into “inflation … and falling living standards.”
MILITARY & TECH
Rostec reports surge in Russian defense production
Sergey Chemezov, the CEO of Rostec Corporation, presented President Vladimir Putin with an overview of the fulfillment of state defense orders, the status of the Russian aviation and automotive industries, and the progress in import substitution.Defence Blog reports.
Chemezov highlighted Russia’s global leadership in tank production, revealing a nearly sevenfold increase in tank output compared to 2021.
Artillery shell production witnessed a surge of approximately 50 times across specific categories, while the manufacturing of infantry fighting vehicles, airborne infantry fighting vehicles, and various armored vehicles soared by over five times.
Specific ammunition production escalated by 50 times, light armored vehicles by 5.5 times, and tanks by sevenfold.
Speaking against the backdrop of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, where Russian armed forces have suffered substantial casualties in personnel and equipment, Chemezov emphasized the intensifying pace of Russian defense efforts.
It’s worth noting that Russia remains in a state of war with Ukraine, and a majority of its public statements are aimed at disinformation and intimidation.
The Anti-Aircraft Defense Weaponry Ukraine Received From Allies in 2023
The greatest progress in the transfer of weaponry by allies was in providing Ukraine with anti-aircraft defense systems. In 2023, a range of new anti-aircraft defense systems was introduced, Defense Express wrote demonstrating their effectiveness from the first days of use.
These systems significantly strengthened Ukraine's airspace, saving many lives among civilians by countering constant shelling with drones and rockets in peaceful cities of the country. Below is a list of the various surface to air missile systems that Ukraine received from their allies in the west during 2023.
American Patriot missile defense system
Norwegian NASAMS air defense system
German IRIS-T air defense system,
Italian-French SAMP/T air defense system
American Hawk and Avenger air defense system
British Stormer HVM 2
French Crotale air defense system
Italian Skyguard air defense system
I will be taking a little break for New Years, the Draft will return on Jan 2 2024 to start a new year
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