UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-02-24
Slava Ukraini! Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 40 sources daily much of which ends up in the script. I will make this Draft available here for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its situation update at 06:00 on Feb. 24 stated that it was day 731 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
During the past day, 84 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 10 missile strikes, 93 air strikes, and 141 MLRS attacks across the positions of our troops and settlements. As a result of the Russian attacks, unfortunately, there are dead and wounded among the civilian population. Destruction and damage to residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line.
The Ukrainian Air Force launched air strikes on 6 areas of focus and 3 enemy anti-aircraft missile complexes. Additionally the Ukrainian Air Force shot down another Russian A-50 AWACS
Ukrainian missile units attacked 4 personnel focus areas, 2 air defence facilities, and 3 artillery and ammunition warehouses.
Ukrainian Air Force confirms destruction of another Russian A-50 aircraft
Commander of the Ukrainian Air Force, Mykola Oleshchuck announced that the Ukrainian Air Force had shot down another Russian A-50 AWACS aircraft with the call sign Bayan on Friday, Feb. 23. Oleshchuck also thanked the Defense Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense and everyone who contributed to the result.
Later Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate HUR) reported that they collaborated with the Ukrainian Air Force to shoot down the aircraft over the Sea of Azov and that it was in fact an upgraded A-50U
According to intelligence reports, the last takeoff of A-50U occurred on February 23 at 15:50 from the Ahtubinsk airfield and was intended to carry out operations near the settlements of Prymorsko-Akhtarsk and Zernograd, posing a terrorist threat to Ukraine.
“The destroyed A-50U is a new upgraded Russian version of the aircraft. The cost of such an aircraft, of which there are only a few left in Russia, is $350 million,”
— HUR announcement
According to Ukrainian intelligence, the plane crashed near the Russian coastal city of Yeysk in Krasnodar Krai.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kup’yans’k axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 2 attacks of the enemy near the settlement Syn’kivka (Kharkiv oblast)
Lyman axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 2 attacks near Terny (Donetsk oblast)
Bakhmut axis: Ukrainian forces repelled 9 attacks near Bohdanivka and Ivanivske (Donetsk oblast)
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the Avdiivka, Mar’inka, Shaktars’ke, and Zaporizhzhia axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Avdiivka axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 9 enemy attacks near Lastochkyne, Sjeverne and Pervomais’ke (Donetsk oblast).
Mar’inka axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the occupiers in the vicinities of Heorhiivka, Pobjeda and Novomykhailivka (Donetsk oblast). Troops repelled 44 attacks in that area.
Shakhtarske axis: The enemy did not conduct any offensive (assault) operations.
Zaporizhzhia axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 8 attacks near Robotyne (Zaporizhzhia oblast).
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Kherson axis: Ukrainian defenders continue to expand the bridgehead. Despite significant losses, the enemy does not abandon its attempts to dislodge Ukrainian troops from their positions. Over the past day, the enemy carried out 4 unsuccessful assaults on the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing to report
THE HOME FRONT
Ukrainian forces thwart Russian air attacks on second anniversary of Russian full-scale invasion
Ukraine’s Southern Defense Forces have announced the successful interception of 12 Russian drones and two Kh-59 missiles within their operational zone.
The Ukrainian Air Force stated that on the night of February 24, Russians launched attacks with two ballistic missiles ‘Iskander-M’ (from Rostov Oblast), three guided aviation missiles Kh-59 (from TOT Kherson Oblast), and 12 combat UAVs of the ‘Shahed’ type (from Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Chauda).
This marks another successful repulsion of Russian attacks, which have been occurring nearly every day for the past two years amid the full-scale war with Russia. Today marks the second anniversary of the full-scale war that Russia launched in the east of Ukraine in 2014.
In a statement, the Southern Defense Forces revealed, “UAVs of the ‘Shahed-131/136’ type, originating from the Black Sea, executed intricate maneuvers over coastal settlements and into the heart of the country, reaching central regions.”
The anti-air defense units in our operational zone successfully brought down:
– 2 kamikaze drones over Mykolayiv Oblast
– 5 over Kirovohrad Oblast
– 5 over Odesa Oblast
Simultaneously, Russia employed guided aviation missiles Kh-59 from a tactical aviation aircraft in the Azov Sea. Two missiles were neutralized by air defense forces in Kirovohrad Oblast. The fate of the aircraft is under investigation.
Dignitaries converge in Kyiv on second anniversary of full-scale invasion
President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, the Prime Ministers of Italy, Canada, and Belgium arrived in Kyiv on February 24, 2024 to mark the second anniversary of the full scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia. Euromaidan reports.
In a symbolic show of solidarity, leaders from across the globe have gathered in Kyiv on the second anniversary of the full-scale invasion by Russia. Among the dignitaries arriving in the Ukrainian capital today are: Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo, and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni arrived from the western border by train. The arrival of EU President Ursula von der Leyen was confirmed earlier, adding a significant diplomatic weight to the collective visit.
It was unofficially reported on Friday that the visit of President von der Leyen and the Prime Minister of Belgium was anticipated. This week, it was officially confirmed that Ursula von der Leyen is being selected as the key candidate from her political group, and in the event of the EPP’s victory in the elections, she is set to lead the European Commission for the second term.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Nighttime blaze engulfs Novolipetsk metallurgical plant in Russia
Last night, a significant fire erupted within one of the buildings at the Novolipetsk Metallurgical Plant (NLMK) in Russia. The incident was reported by Igor Artamonov, the Governor of the Lipetsk Region, who suggested a potential drone involvement.
According to Governor Artamonov, the blaze originated in one of the NLMK workshops, causing a series of explosions that were audible in the city of Lipetsk. Unconfirmed reports say that the cause of the fire may have been a drone.
“We witnessed a fire breakout in one of the NLMK workshops… According to unconfirmed information from security services, the ignition may have been triggered by the crash of an unmanned aerial vehicle. Currently, we are verifying this information along with videos circulating on social media,” stated Governor Artamonov.
Russia’s forces deployed to Ukraine are now larger than during the initial invasion in 2022
The UK Ministry of Defence in its Feb. 24 Intelligence Update stated that Russian forces in Ukraine are now larger in number than at the start of the war in February 2022, despite suffering heavy losses over the past two years, the UK Defense Ministry reported on 24 February.
The British Defense Ministry reported that Russia deployed approximately 130 Battalion Tactical Groups for its invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Russia’s original invasion force included approximately 1,300 tanks, over 5,000 infantry fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers, and at least 100,000 personnel.
“In two years of the war in Ukraine, Russian losses match – and in many cases surpass – those that comprised its original force,” the British intel said.
According to Ukraine’s General Staff of Armed Forces, Russia has lost over Russia lost 409,000 personnel, 6,534 tanks, and 9,952 artillery pieces as of 24 February 2024
Mobilisation and recruitment, production and refurbishment of existing stockpiles means that losses have been replaced.Russian forces in Ukraine are now able to maintain attacks along the front line and pursue a strategy of attrition against Ukrainian forces.
Little threat of invasion from Transnistria for Ukraine
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in their Feb. 23 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment stated that they do not believe the Russian military group concentrated in Transnistria is a threat to Ukraine.
Ukrainian officials stated that the likelihood of a ground attack by the Russians on Ukraine from the territory of Transnistria, a pro-Russian breakaway region of Moldova, is low following reports that Transnistrian authorities might call for or organise a referendum on joining Russia on 28 February.
ISW also noted that they have not seen any signs that the limited Russian military presence in Transnistria might try to conduct a ground operation threatening Ukraine. ISW does not believe this force grouping can launch a full-scale ground operation against Ukraine.
ISW added that they issued a warning forecast on 22 February, estimating that officials in Transnistria might call for a referendum on joining Russia to support Russian hybrid operations aimed at political and social destabilisation in Moldova. However, this warning concerns the threat to Moldova's stability and not the situation in Ukraine.
WORLD NEWS
US targets Russia with hundreds of sanctions
The United States on Friday imposed extensive sanctions against Russia, targeting more than 500 people and entities to mark the second anniversary of Moscow's invasion of Ukraine and retaliate for the death of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny. Reuters reported.
President Joe Biden said the measures aim to ensure Russian President Vladimir Putin "pays an even steeper price for his aggression abroad and repression at home."
The sanctions targeted Russia's Mir payment system, financial institutions and its military industrial base, sanctions evasion, future energy production and other areas. They also hit prison officials the U.S. says are linked to Navalny's death.
"Doesn’t Washington realize that sanctions won’t take us down?" Russia's ambassador to Washington, Anatoly Antonov, was quoted as saying on his embassy's channel on the Telegram messaging app.
The Biden administration is seeking to continue supporting Ukraine as the country faces acute shortages of ammunition and the approval of more U.S. military aid has been delayed for months in the U.S. Congress. The European Union, Britain and Canada also took action against Russia on Friday.
"We must sustain our support for Ukraine even as we weaken Russia's war machine. It's critical that Congress steps up to join our allies around the world in giving Ukraine the means to defend itself," Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in a statement.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Friday's move was Washington's largest number of designations in a single Russia action.
The U.S. Treasury imposed sanctions on state-owned National Payment Card System, the operator of the Mir payment system.
Mir payments cards have become more important since its U.S. rivals suspended operations in Russia after Moscow sent tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine, and their payment cards which were issued in the country stopped working abroad.
It also targeted over a dozen Russian banks, investment firms, venture capital funds, and fintech companies.
The United States also targeted Russia's future energy production and exports, taking further aim at Arctic LNG 2 project in Siberia. In November, Washington imposed sanctions on a major entity involved in the massive project.
On Friday, the State Department targeted Russia's Zvezda shipbuilding company, which it said is involved in the construction of up to 15 highly specialized LNG tankers intended for use in support of Arctic LNG 2 exports.
The United States also imposed sanctions on entities based in China, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan and Liechtenstein over the evasion of Western sanctions on Russia and backfilling.
The move also targeted a network through which Russia, in cooperation with Iran, has acquired and produced drones.
The Biden administration also imposed new trade restrictions on 93 entities from Russia, China, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and elsewhere for supporting Russia's war effort in Ukraine.
MILITARY & TECH
Russia's Tank Stocks Are Running Out
During February, the number of cases of using outdated equipment of the Russian Armed Forces on the battlefield rapidly increased according to Defense Express in their latest report.
The supply of T-62 tanks to the russian army began at the end of 2022, and the first T-55s appeared at the front in the summer of 2023, with these tanks, were armed units on the second and third lines of defense and were used to a limited extent in a role of mobile artillery. However, towards the end of the battle for Avdiivka, according to the reports of the soldiers who took part in the battles, the enemy began to throw units into the battle on T-62, and, as noted, not modernized, but bare tanks without so called “grilles” and dynamic protection.
After Avdiivka, russian troops stepped up their attempts to attack Robotyne, where they actively used outdated T-55 and T-54 with no signs of modernization, except for the anti-drone “grill” (which did not help these tanks evade from Ukrainian drones).
It is obvious that the increase in the number of T-62, T-55/54 on the front line is due to the high losses of tanks of the russian Armed Forces, the insufficient pace of their production at factories and the gradual depletion of warehouse stocks. The russians also have similar problems with infantry fighting vehicles, as evidenced by the increased use of MT-LB as infantry fighting vehicles.
As of August, analysts of the Viyskovy Vischun intelligence and analytical platform counted 219 T-55s in storage. About a hundred were removed from the bases and now we see them at the front. With stocks of T-62s, the situation of the russians is a little better. As of August, about 600 of them were withdrawn from storages, and about 800 are still in storage. They are being upgraded to 103 armour repair plant (BTRZ), receive additional protection and new equipment. However, according to various estimates, the production capacity of 103 BTRZ is limited to approximately 20 tanks per month. Probably, because of this T-62s, which were not modernized, but hastily restored from bases, appeared at the front, immediately sent into battle, where they were destroyed. As of mid-February, according to Oryx, the destruction of more than a hundred T-62 in various modifications has been confirmed.
Recently, the OSINT researcher high_marsed conducted a study of the stocks of relatively modern Soviet T-80U and T-80UD tanks, which were in service with the 4th tank division. It was discovered that the possibilities of restoring the T-80U have been exhausted, there are several dozen of these tanks in warehouses, which are probably not suitable for restoration. The 4th tank division suffered significant T-80U losses at the beginning of the invasion, and at the moment these machines rarely appear in reports. Presumably, the 1st guards tank army, which is conducting combat operations on the front from Kupyansk to Svatovo, suffers from a significant lack of equipment, which partially explains the inability of the russians to achieve success in this area, although the number of tanks according to the deployed units can reach more than 500 units.
As for T-80UD, there are 170 of them in stock, but they are suitable for use only as spare parts donors, since the 6TD diesel engines were manufactured in Kharkiv and the russian federation does not have them for the restoration of this T-80 modification. Therefore, units of the 1st tank army gradually switched to the T-80BV. But the russians also have problems with them, since the marine units traditionally equipped with T-80BV and T-80BVM will receive the above-mentioned T-55 from the beginning of 2024. Tank reserves of T-80BV and various versions of T-72 are counted as hundreds, but the scale and pace of losses are already bringing us to a situation where the bottom can be seen in the infinite tank reserves of the russian federation.
And the russians can’t not to understand this. Nevertheless, the political demands of the Moscow leadership dominate military expediency. Instead of reducing the pace of attacks on Ukrainian positions along the entire front and stockpiling weapons and ammunition, Putin is going all-in, trying to capture as many Ukrainian towns and villages as possible before the elections. The price of these political decisions may be a significant reduction of the offensive potential of the russian troops in a few months.
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