UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2023-12-16
Slava Ukraini! For the past six months I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 40 sources daily much of which ends up in the Ukraine War Written Brief. While this is going through a period of transition I will make this Draft available here for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
Russia-Ukraine war: GSAFU Frontline update as of Dec. 16
In the morning report of the General Staff on Dec. 16 it was reported that Ukrainian Defence forces held back the Russian invaders all across the contact line
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group is responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine.
In the Kupiansk direction, Ukrainian defenders repelled 9 enemy attacks in the areas of Synkivka in the Kharkiv region.
In the Lyman direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 5 enemy attacks to the east from Terniv, Yampolivka in the Luhansk region.
In the Bakhmut direction, our troops repelled 18 enemy attacks in the areas of Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka in the Donetsk region.
The Tavria operational-strategic group is responsible for the Avdiivka, Mar’inka, Shaktars’ke, and Zaporizhzhia axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.
In the Avdiivka direction, Ukrainian defenders continue to hold back the enemy, who is making attempts to encircle Avdiivka. Our soldiers are steadfastly holding the line, inflicting significant losses on the enemy.
Ukrainian defense forces successfully repelled 20 enemy attacks in the areas east of Novobakhmutivka, Avdiivka, and 14 attacks in the areas east of Stepove, south of Severne and Pervomaiske in the Donetsk region.
In the Maryinka direction, Ukrainian defense forces continue to hold back the enemy near Novomykhailivka in the Donetsk region, where our defenders repelled 13 attacks.
In the Shakhtarsk direction, our defenders repelled two enemy attacks in the area of Staromaiorske of the Donetsk region.
In the Zaporizhzhia direction, Defense Forces repelled 8 enemy attacks west of Novopokrovka and south of Robotyne in the Zaporizhzhia region.
The Odesa operational-strategic group is responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea
In the Kherson direction, Ukrainian defenders continue to hold their positions on the left bank of the Dnipro River, conduct a counter-battery fight, and inflict fire damage on the enemy's rear.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Partisans blow up train carrying ammunition and fuel in occupied Melitopol
A report from the National Resistance Centre stated that On the morning of December 15, in the temporarily occupied Melitopol, Zaporizhzhia Region, Ukrainian partisans blew up a freight train that carried ammunition and fuel every day and exported ore and grain. The occupation administration is trying to hide the fact of sabotage.
"On December 15, in Melitopol, the Resistance Movement conducted a successful sabotage and blew up a railway train that drove ammunition and fuel daily from the Crimea to Melitopol and Dniprorudne. On the way back, this train exported ore, grain and damaged equipment from the temporarily occupied territories. Nevertheless, thanks to the heroes of the underground, the train completed its movement completely,"
— National Resistance Centre
According to the NRC this is the 11th train destroyed this year, the last one was on Oct. 13.
An oil depot caught fire in temporarily occupied Donetsk
An oil depot with 4 reservoirs caught fire in the Budonivskyi District of temporarily occupied Donetsk on Dec. 15 Militarnyi reported with reference to local media.
Local media claims that the oil depot was hit during the shelling, the type of weapon was not reported. The “authorities” of the occupied city did not comment on the situation.
Osint analysts managed to identify the oil depot, which was located at Budonnoho St, 79 and belonged to the ASI Oil gas station chain. The damage to the oil depot is difficult to assess, but the extensive fire indicates damage to the reservoir or underground storage facility.
Russia is Looting Captured Industrial Facilities in Temporarily Occupied Territories
In temporarily occupied Zaporizhzhia, Russia’s plundering goes beyond just land. Industrial facilities are being stripped bare Defence Express reports with scrap metal shipped out of the region through the port of Berdiansk. Local contractors, overseen by Russian soldiers, are the faces of this looting, but the true motive is clear: resource extraction and cultural erasure.
This isn’t just about taking territory. It’s about stripping the land bare, rewriting history and crushing Ukrainian identity. But the spirit of resistance remains strong. The Center for National Resistance urges locals to share enemy information, disrupt their plans and support Ukrainian forces to hasten the day their land is free.
Ukraine launches drone attack on multiple sites in occupied Crimea
According to multiple sources, Ukraine launched an attack with drones on Russian-occupied Crimea late in the evening on the evening of 15 December Euromaidan Press reports.
Local social media communities shared reports of Russian anti-aircraft defenses actively working around Armiansk in northern occupied Crimea, Sevastopol, including the Kacha airfield, Dzhankoi, and in western Crimea between Chornomorske and Bezvodne. Later, Sevastopol’s occupation governor Mikhail Razvozhaev announced that anti-aircraft defenses were operating over the sea.
Russia’s Ministry of Defense has claimed shooting down 32 drones over occupied Crimea between 20:30 and 22:30 on 15 December. Per the Russians, 26 Ukrainian drones were destroyed over the peninsula. The Russian MoD later added that around midnight, Ukrainian kamikaze drones again allegedly targeted assets in Crimea, with anti-aircraft defenses purportedly intercepting another 6 UAVs.
Natalia Humeniuk, head of the Joint Coordination Press Center of Ukraine’s Southern Defense Forces, confirmed Ukraine was behind the drone attack. She noted that Russian anti-aircraft defenses in Crimea are insufficient to cover the whole territory, so the Russians have to constantly move them around to try protecting various positions and assets. “We’ve made many holes there that they now need to plug by maneuvering their anti-aircraft weapons systems in different directions…Trying to find the best locations to protect themselves as well as what they are protecting,” she summarized.
THE HOME FRONT
Thirty Russian drones shot down over Ukraine
The GSAFU announced in their morning report on Dec. 16 that overnight Russia launched 31 Shahed-136/131 loitering munitions against targets in Ukraine. “Ukraine’s air defense forces and systems destroyed 30 [enemy] combat drones,” Ukrinform reports.
Commander of the Joint Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Lieutenant General Serhii Naiev mentioned that, within the Northern operational zone, the enemy attempted to strike military and civilian objects with the Shahed-type drones in the Kyiv and Chernihiv directions.
All enemy targets were destroyed. Eight out of 14 Russian drones were intercepted within the Northern operational zone by Ukraine’s mobile fire teams equipped with heavy machine guns, man-portable air defense systems, and anti-aircraft guns.
Ukraine returns three more kidnapped children from Russia and temporarily occupied territories
The head of the Presidential Office, Andriy Yermak reported on Telegram that Three more Ukrainian children that had been illegally kidnapped were returned to Ukraine from Russia and the temporarily occupied territories.
Two of them returned to their mothers in Ukraine. The third child was in the Russian Federation and was reunited with his mother in Georgia. All of them are now at home with their families.
"We continue to fulfil the task of President Volodymyr Zelensky. Our children are coming home. Through the joint efforts of our team and the Ombudsman of Ukraine Dmytro Lubinets, with the mediation of the State of Qatar, we are returning three children.The task from Volodymyr Zelensky is to return everyone. And we will do it,"
— Andriy Yermak, President Zelenskyy’s
Information about jet powered Shahed drones is Russian propaganda — Ukrainian Air Force
Yurii Ihnat, spokesperson of the Ukrainian Air Force, has said that the information about a new modification of the Iran-made Shahed drones with jet engines is already at the front that is being spread in Russia is fake.
"There is no such information. This information emerged in Russian Telegram-channels where some Russian grandpa put on a military uniform and was interviewed by Russian propagandists. Basically, this man was invited and showed an Iranian presentation about a Shahed drone with jet engines, and he decided that such drones are already being used somewhere in Ukraine.
He even described tactical-technical characteristics and said that it flies 600 km and more. A super-weapon. It only exists in the propagandists’ imagination. I get it that it is possible that Russia may want to acquire this model as well, but what for?"
— Yurii Ihnat, Ukrainian Air Force spokesman
Ihnat explained that a drone equipped with a jet engine is no longer a drone but a cruise missile.
He remarked that it makes no sense since in this case the drone would not be able to carry a large quantity of explosives, its weight is increased, and therefore the warhead and the damage radius get smaller.
Grumpy analysis — Ihnat is correct the purpose of the Shahed drone in the first place was to be small and cheap allowing for mass production. A jet powered version is illogical. They would neither be small or cheap, or even capable of mass production.
Even the concept raises a number of questions regarding the feasibility. How much fuel could it carry? Allowing for what sort of range? How large a payload? How big would it be, more importantly how large would its radar signature be?
Russia already produces a number of cruise missiles that serve this purpose much better than that. Versions of a supposedly jet powered Shahed 238 were shown in a recent Iranian propaganda release
THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION / OCCUPIED BELARUS
Nothing to report.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
G7 moves closer to seizing Russian assets for Ukraine
Western nations are actively exploring ways to seize Russian central bank assets to fund Ukraine as political disputes in the US and Europe threaten its flow of financial support the Financial Times reports
G7 officials have intensified talks in recent weeks on spending some of the roughly $300bn in immobilised Russian sovereign assets, a radical step that would open a new chapter in the west’s financial warfare against Moscow.
The push comes as two crucial financial aid packages for Ukraine worth more than $100bn faltered this week, as Republicans in the US Congress and Viktor Orbán of EU member Hungary took a stand against funding Kyiv.
Seizing Russian assets could provide an alternative stream of funding for Kyiv, especially given the expected huge costs of postwar reconstruction. Until now G7 governments have mostly balked at such a move, fearing that some foreign investors in dollar and euro assets would take flight.
Washington has never publicly backed confiscation, however the US has privately taken a more assertive stance in recent weeks, arguing in G7 committees that there is a route to seizing the assets “consistent with international law”.
“G7 members and other specially affected states could seize Russian sovereign assets as a countermeasure to induce Russia to end its aggression,” said a US government discussion paper, seen by the Financial Times, which was circulated in G7 committees.
Some suggest this will be the main topic of a G7 meeting scheduled to coincide with the second anniversary of Russia’s full scale invasion of Ukraine in February.
US Senate to vote on Ukraine funding, border security next week
Reuters reports The U.S. Senate will vote on military aid for Ukraine and Israel next week as negotiations continue over changes to U.S. border security policy that would be tied to the funding, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said on Thursday.
The Senate will delay its holiday break, which had been due to start Friday, and convene Monday to give negotiators time to reach an agreement, Schumer said. "So much hangs on our success," Schumer said. "We know the world is watching."
In response President Zelenskyy in his first address since returning home stated "We will continue our work… We expect that Congress will approve the key decisions in the nearest future," he said. "We have to win."
EU plans alternative Ukraine aid strategy amid Hungary’s veto
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen confirmed that the European Union is devising an alternative plan for a four-year aid package to Ukraine, worth €50 billion, in response to the veto by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.
This development was reported on the European Commission’s website, following earlier confidential negotiations reported by the Financial Times. These discussions involved emergency funding for Ukraine “for at least a year” from the other 26 EU member states, excluding Hungary.
Von der Leyen referred to a meeting scheduled for early next year and said: “There is now a new rendezvous early next year. We will use, as a Commission, the time until then to ensure that whatever happens at this next EUCO, we will have an operational solution.”
US treasury officials to visit Europe to discuss Russian oil price cap enforcement
Two U.S. Treasury Department officials will head to Europe next week to discuss enforcing the price cap on Russian oil with government officials and private business leaders, the agency said on Friday.
Elizabeth Rosenberg, the assistant secretary for terrorist financing and financial crimes, and Eric Van Nostrand, assistant secretary for economic policy, will travel to Brussels on Dec. 18 and London on Dec. 19-20 Reuters reports.
The trip comes after countries in the European Union agreed a 12th package of sanctions on Russia on Thursday including tightening the proof required from companies who claim they adhere to the Group of Seven price cap on Russian oil.
The West late last December set a $60 price cap on seaborne exports of Russian oil, part of sanctions seeking to punish Moscow for its war on Ukraine. The mechanism bans Western companies from providing the maritime services, including financing, insurance, and shipping for oil sold above the cap.
The cap has forced Russia to shift its oil sales to countries much farther away, such as China and India, and invest in a "ghost fleet" of aging tankers.
A collection of Russian intelligence disappeared under Trump
A binder containing highly classified information related to Russian election interference went missing at the end of Donald Trump’s presidency, raising alarms among intelligence officials that some of the most closely guarded national security secrets from the US and its allies could be exposed, sources familiar with the matter told CNN.
Its disappearance, which has not been previously reported, was so concerning that intelligence officials briefed Senate Intelligence Committee leaders last year about the missing materials and the government’s efforts to retrieve them, the sources said.
In the two-plus years since Trump left office, the missing intelligence does not appear to have been found.
The binder contained raw intelligence the US and its NATO allies collected on Russians and Russian agents, including sources and methods that informed the US government’s assessment that Russian President Vladimir Putin sought to help Trump win the 2016 election, sources tell CNN.
The intelligence was so sensitive that lawmakers and congressional aides with top secret security clearances were able to review the material only at CIA headquarters in Langley, Virginia, where their work scrutinizing it was itself kept in a locked safe.
MILITARY & TECH
The first Leopard 2s repaired in Lithuania will soon arrive in Ukraine
The press service of the Lithuanian Ministry of National Defense reported on Friday, Dec. 15 that the first two Ukrainian Leopard 2A6 main battle tanks have been repaired in Lithuania, in cooperation with the German defense industry, and are being prepared for shipment back to the battlefield in Ukraine.
“Lithuania consistently supports Ukraine’s struggle for independence and not only sends military assistance, but also helps to repair Leopard 2 tanks that are very much needed on the battlefield,”
— Arvydas Anušauskas, Lithuanian Minister of National Defense
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