UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-01-11
Slava Ukraini! Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 40 sources daily much of which ends up in the script. I will make this Draft available here for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its situation update at 06:00 Jan. 11 on stated that it was The day 687 of large-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
During the past day, 73 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 4 rockets and 48 air strikes, carried out 36 shelling from MLRS on the positions of our troops and settlements. As a result of the Russian terrorist attacks, unfortunately, there are dead and wounded among the civilian population. Destruction and damage to residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group is responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine.
Ukraine's Defence Minister and Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief visit Kupyansk Front
The Ukrainian Defence Ministry's press service revealed that on Jan. 09 that Rustem Umierov, Ukraine's Defence Minister, General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and Lieutenant General Serhii Shaptala, Chief of the General Staff, have visited Ukrainian Defence Forces positions near the town of Kupiansk (Kharkiv Oblast).
The report noted that Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrskyi, Commander of the Khortytsia Operational and Strategic Group, briefed the guests on the situation around Kupiansk, where Ukrainian soldiers are repelling constant Russian attempts to advance.
The Defence Ministry stressed that the Russian occupying forces had no progress in this area.
"I had the honour to meet with the commanders of the formations fighting in this area. They reported on the situation and current challenges. Decisions will be made soon – the Russians will not like them."
— Rustem Umierov, Ukraine's Defence Minister
Kup’yans’k axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 5 enemy attacks in the vicinity of Syn’kivka (Kharkiv oblast).
Lyman axis: the Ukrainian defenders repelled 6 attacks of the occupiers east of Terny (Donetsk oblast).
Bakhmut axis: the Ukrainian soldiers repelled 1 attack near Klishchiivka (Donetsk oblast).
The Tavria operational-strategic group is responsible for the Avdiivka, Mar’inka, Shaktars’ke, and Zaporizhzhia axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.
Avdiivka axis: the Ukrainian defenders continue to hold back the enemy who keeps trying to encircle Avdiivka. The Ukrainian soldiers are standing their ground and inflicting major losses on the invaders. For instance, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 9 enemy attacks near Novobakhmutivka, Avdiivka, Sjeverne, and 15 attacks near Pervomais’ke and Nevel’s’ke (Donetsk oblast).
Mar’inka axis: the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the enemy in the vicinities of Mar’inka and Novomykhailivka (Donetsk oblast). The Ukrainian troops repelled 16x attacks in that area.
Zaporizhzhia axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 5 enemy attacks near Robotyne and west of Verbove (Zaporizhzhia oblast).
The Odesa operational-strategic group is responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea
Kherson axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to expand the bridgehead. Despite significant losses, the occupiers do not abandon their attempts to dislodge Ukrainian troops from their positions. The adversary made 11 unsuccessful attempts to assault during the day of Jan. 10.
Ukraine's Navy Commander says Russia won't be able to maintain fleet without Sevastopol
Vice Admiral Oleksii Neizhpapa, Commander of the Navy of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in an interview with Ukrainska Pravda reported that For the Russian invaders, Sevastopol is a technological hub, without which it is impossible to keep the Russian fleet in the Black Sea, and the task of the Armed Forces is to make it impossible for the Russians to use naval bases.
"Sevastopol is the main base that fully satisfies the maintenance of the fleet, the repair base, several repair plants, and airfields, including Belbek and Kacha. In Novorossiysk, for example, there are no airfields, no large repair plants, no weapons storage facilities, etc.
This is, by and large, one of the reasons why they ended up in Crimea (Qirim) in 2014. Because without Sevastopol, they would not have been able to keep the Black Sea Fleet in the Black Sea."
Neizhpapa clarified that Sevastopol is a base that has been built for centuries. In particular, ammunition and fuel stocks are scattered there, which are hidden in the mountains, they are more challenging to hit. Kalibr missiles are also located there because there are closed storage systems for them.
Secondly, the commander said, Sevastopol has a medical supply centre, a large hospital, and so on. All educational institutions were built there. "That is, Sevastopol is such a strategic hub," Neizhpapa explained.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Zelenskyy: Despite all the challenges, we can provide Defence Forces with everything they need
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's evening video address stated that prospects for the supply of weapons and military equipment for 2024 was one of the topics discussed during the Supreme Commander-in-Chief's Staff meeting on Tuesday.
According to the President, this Staff meeting was a special one. It was attended by all the top-level commanders and heads of operations.
The meeting’s attendees conducted an in-depth analysis of the supply of shells and drones to the troops and concluded that all logistics mechanisms need to work faster.
They also discussed establishing new weapon and ammunition production lines in Ukraine at their own companies and in conjunction with partners.
"Of course we considered the supplies we expect to receive this year. Despite all the challenges in the world, our careful, clear approach to every requirement and every opportunity can provide the Defence Forces with everything they need."
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy President of Ukraine
There was also detailed analysis of the work of the Air Force, the results of shooting down Russian missiles and drones, and the strengthening of Ukraine’s air defence network.
40% of Ukraine's population will need humanitarian aid this year – UN
The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs released a report on Jan. 10 stating that more than 14.6 million people, 40% of Ukraine's population, will need humanitarian assistance this year.
The war has also forced about 6.3 million Ukrainians to flee abroad.
The organisation notes that after the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation, people have experienced almost two years of unrelenting hostilities.
Civilians are being killed and injured every day, and their homes and critical infrastructure are being destroyed.
The UN stressed that the first week of January brought a wave of attacks to Ukraine that began on 29 December and continues to this day.
On 15 January, Emergency Relief Coordinator Martin Griffiths and High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi will present UN-coordinated plans to save lives and overcome the suffering caused by the emergency.
Ukrainian parliament approves law on lobbying in first reading
Yaroslav Zhelezniak, a lawmaker from the Holos (Voice) party faction reports that the Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian parliament) has voted in favour of the draft law on lobbying in the first reading, one of the main requirements of the European Commission (EC), as formulated in its report on enlargement in November.
A total of 309 MPs voted in favour of the draft law, none voted against it, and 15 abstained.
The adoption of the law is one of the four recommendations of the European Commission, which Ukraine had to complete by March, according to the November EC report on enlargement. This is actually the only remaining condition. The European Union's assessment of the draft law adopted on Wednesday has not yet been made.
The draft law, among other things, proposes to define the following:
terminology with regard to lobbying;
rights and obligations of lobbying entities;
influence methods;
ethical behaviour rules for lobbying entities;
establishment of the Transparency Register, which is to be kept and administered by the National Agency on Corruption Prevention;
the procedure for registration in the Transparency Register and exceptions to it;
access to the Transparency Register (open and free of charge);
reporting of the lobbying entity to be entered in the Transparency Register;
mechanisms for controlling the activities of lobbying entities by monitoring compliance with lobbying legislation.
The purpose of the draft law is to ensure the legal framework for lobbying in Ukraine in accordance with international practices and standards, regulatory and legal regulation of the interaction between officials of state authorities and local self-government bodies with stakeholders and lobbying entities, establishing transparent mechanisms to ensure the activities of lobbying entities and officials of state authorities and local self-government bodies; and mechanisms to monitor lobbying activities.
THE RUSSIAN WORLD
New Poll: 63% of Russians support war in Ukraine
The University of Chicago has released a new independent poll conducted by the University of Chicago's National Opinion Research Centre (NORC) has found that Russian President Vladimir Putin retains strong domestic support for his regime and his war in Ukraine, despite poor economic conditions and living standards in Russia.
American sociologists surveyed 1,046 adult Russians living in the Russian Federation and Russian-occupied Crimea, using data from Russian mobile phone operators.
The survey found that 67% of participants approve of Putin's foreign policy and 58% approve of his domestic policy. 66% plan to vote for Putin in the upcoming presidential election in March.
Putin's relatively high ratings seem to be sustained even though the poll shows that Russians are unhappy with rising prices, which are causing a general deterioration in living conditions.
Sociologists also noted that 63% of participants support the war in Ukraine and that 64% of respondents view the war as a "civilisational struggle between Russia and the West".
Russia uses every missile produced
Major General Vadym Skibitskyi, Deputy Chief of the Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence (DIU) stated in an interview that they have not observed any increase in Russia's missile production capabilities but states that Russia retains the ability to use these missiles for large-scale attacks on Ukraine.
"The analysis has shown, and we understand this, especially in the year 2023, shown that the amount that Russia has today is only able to cover the costs or the use that it undertakes every day.
About a month ago, in an interview, we talked about the possibility of attacks on our energy system and in general. So, when we conducted an analysis, in October 2022, when they began to launch large-scale attacks, they had between 900 and 1,000 high-precision strategic missiles.
Last year, at the same time, in October, they had the same amount left. I mean, basically... whatever they produce, they use. We have not seen any significant increase."
— Vadym Skibitskyi, Deputy Chief of the DIU
Skibitsky provided the example of Kh-101 and Kalibr missiles, which the Russians have not used at all since mid-September. 2023. That is, according to the DIU representative, the Russians had been accumulating them for more than three months to replenish their reserves.
Russia does not have the strategic capacity to conduct a strategic offensive elsewhere
Major General Vadym Skibitskyi, Deputy Chief of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (DIU) reported that Russia does not have the capacity to conduct strategic offensive operations against other countries on land, as all its ground forces are on the territory of Ukraine and are fighting against it.
"While we are containing the aggression of the Russian Federation, Russia does not have such opportunities (to open a second front – ed.). They have no strategic reserves. You see, they have redeployed air defence units from the Far East, from the north and from the northern regions in order to strengthen their air defence in Crimea and to strengthen their positions along the border with our country. This is the first point.
Second, they had already gone to Finland in 1939. But now Finland is a powerful player because it is a member of NATO. Therefore, our forecast and our assessment are very straightforward. Today, the Russian Federation does not have the capacity to conduct strategic land offensive operations against other countries. Because the entire resource of the ground forces is currently focused and located on our territory.
As for the possibility of some isolated attacks using long-range aircraft or strategic aircraft, this is a different question.
...There is a concern, but there is [no] direct threat that a war will break out in the Baltic states tomorrow. [Russia] has no one left to fight, simply put."
— Vadym Skibitskyi, Deputy Chief of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine
NEWS WORLDWIDE
Zelenskyy begins visit to Baltic nations
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy began a visit to the Baltic nations, some of Kyiv’s most staunch allies on Jan. 10 arriving first in Lithuania. Zelenskyy met with the president, the prime minister, the speaker of the Seimas [Lithuanian parliament - ed.], and meetings with representatives of political parties, the media, and the Ukrainian community as well.
On Jan. 11 President Zelenskyy visited Estonia where he met with the President and delivered a speech to Parliament.
Next on Zelenskyy’s agenda will be a visit to Latvia later today.
The focus of his two-day trip to Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, Zelenskyy said on his official Telegram channel, will be security concerns, Ukraine’s hopes to join the European Union and NATO, and building partnerships in drone production and electronic warfare capacities.
Finland confirms its intention to keep border with Russia closed
Sari Essayah, Finland's Minister of Agriculture, confirmed on 10 January that the country's government plans to keep its border with Russia closed.
When asked to comment on media reports that Helsinki does not plan to open border crossings with Russia, Essayah said, "I can confirm the information that was published".
Local media noted that the Finnish government is basing its decision to close the border on information received from the authorities, which stated that Russia's activities have stayed the same since the closure of the eastern border.
MILITARY & TECH
Russian media say Russia aims to manufacture new glide bombs
Russian propaganda outlet, claims Russia wants to start manufacturing a new Drel (Drill) cluster glide bomb in 2024. Citing information from Rostech military industry corporation.
TASS explained that the Drel glide bomb is designed to destroy armoured vehicles and tanks, radar stations, power plant control centres and anti-aircraft missile systems.
"Drel, a new glide bomb, has successfully performed in all tests set out by the military department. The mass production of the munitions will start this year. The creation of the new bomb was first announced in 2016. It’s expected to be able to evade radar detection,"
— Russian Propaganda claimed
“If the warhead does not detonate at the right time, it self-destructs after a certain time, and will therefore not pose a threat to civilians after the end of hostilities."
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