UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-06-20
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 60 sources daily, much of which forms the basis of the script. While the Podcast is on hiatus I will make this Draft available here both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 22:00 on June19 stated that day 848 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.
During the past day, 122 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 0 missile strikes, 38 air strikes, 533 drone strikes and more than 2,900 artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deep into the territory of Ukraine.
During the day, aviation, missile troops and artillery of the Defense Forces hit 13 personnel concentration areas and three enemy control points.
Air Force Daily Report
On the night of June 20, 2024, the Russian occupiers attacked Ukraine, using air and ground-based missiles, as well as "Shahed" type UAVs.
In total, the enemy used 9 missiles of various types and 27 attack UAVs:
- 4 Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles from Tu-95 MS strategic aircraft (launch area – airspace over the Caspian Sea);
- 3 "Iskander-M" ballistic missiles (from the Voronezh region - Russian Federation);
- 2 Kh-59 guided air missiles (from the airspace over the Sea of Azov);
- 27 strike UAVs of the "Shahed-131/136" type (launch area - Primorsko-Akhtarsk - Russian Federation).
Critical infrastructure objects were attacked. The main direction of the attack is the East of Ukraine, in particular Dnipropetrovsk region.
The enemy's air attack was repulsed by fighter aircraft, anti-aircraft missile units and EW means of the Air Force, calculations of mobile fire groups of the Defense Forces of Ukraine.
As a result of anti-aircraft combat, 32 air targets were shot down:
- 4 Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles;
- 1 guided air missile Kh-59;
- 27 attack UAVs of the "Shahed-131/136" type.
Anti-aircraft defence was active in Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhia, Donetsk, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Cherkasy, Poltava and Vinnytsia regions.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kharkiv axis: The enemy, supported by aviation, six times unsuccessfully attacked in the areas of Vovchansk and Lyptsi
Kupyansk axis: The enemy attacked Ukrainian positions 12 times in the vicinity of Synkivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Kruhliakivka and Pischane. There is ongoing fighting around Stepova Novoselivka, the situation is under control.
Lyman axis: The enemy attacked Ukrainian positions 15 times in the vicinity of Nevske, Terny, the Serebryanskyy Forest and Hryhorivka. None were successful but the battle continues in the area of Terny
Siversk axis: The enemy carried out 9 attacks in the vicinity of Verkhnokamianske and Rozdolivka. The situation has not changed significantly.
Kramatorsk axis: The enemy, supported by aviation, attacked Ukrainian defensive positions 17 times in the vicinity of Bohdanivka, Kalynivka, Ivanivske, Klischiivka and Andriivka
Additionally the enemy made 6 attempts to break through Ukrainian defences in the vicinity of Oleksandropil
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk axis: This continues to be the most severe area of attack.The enemy conducted 43 attacks against Ukrainian defences in this area over the last day in the vicinity of Kalynove, Novooleksandrívka, Sokil, Yevhenívka, Novoselívka Persha, Novopokrovske, Karlivka.
Kurakhove axis: There have been 10 enemy assaults on this front The situation remains tense in the vicinity of Krasnohorivka
Vremika axis: The situation has not experienced significant changes.
Orikhiv axis: The situation has not experienced significant changes.
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Prydniprovsk axis: The enemy made five attempts to breach the defences of Ukrainian forces on the left bank of the Dnipro.
Russia Scrambles to Defend Crimea After Ukrainian Attacks
The UK Ministry of Defence in the June 20 Intelligence Update stated the following:
Throughout June 2024 the Russian Air Force maintained pressure against the front-line in Ukraine with tactical aviation while one way attack drones continued to strike against deeper infrastructure and military related targets. However, between June12 and 18, Russian long-range aviation switched the focus of its cruise missile strikes to target Ukrainian air bases, almost certainly borne out of frustration of continued Ukrainian air strike successes whilst also likely highlighting Russia's concerns about the future employment of the F-16 aircraft.
A series of coordinated Ukrainian attacks against targets in Crimea resulted in the destruction of critical elements of Russian S-300 and S-400 surface to air missile systems. These successes highlight Russia's struggle to defend its assets in Crimea, despite their pride and significant economic outlay on air defence. While it is likely that Russia can replace systems quickly, continued attrition will likely force Russia to draw on equipment from other areas, as it has done previously, if it wishes to maintain its density of air defence coverage. Alternatively, Russia may be forced to accept a reduction in capability, placing its forces on Crimea at increased risk.
Further successful Ukrainian attacks against Russian airfields conducting strike operations, such as Mozdok, Akhtubinsk and more recently Morozovsk has highly likely forced Russia to maintain its policy of dispersing aircraft basing further from the front-line. This will almost certainly result in increased airframe and aircrew fatigue as sortie times increase. It is possible that the accidental loss of a Russian Su-34 fighter bomber in the North Ossetia region of southern Russia on June 12 was linked to this.
Grumpy here - A number of military analysts are openly asserting that Ukraine is preparing the battle space for an offensive in Qirim, and Russian panic would seem to indicate they believe this may be the case also. IF this is true and Ukraine can establish air superiority over the region, Russia is in very serious trouble.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
In the occupied territories of Ukraine, Russia imposes its own curriculum and prohibits everything Ukrainian
In the occupied territories of Ukraine, the Russian authorities prohibit the Ukrainian language and curriculum, instead imposing the Russian education system and spreading anti-Ukrainian propaganda. Activists from the organisation Human Rights Watch report.
They emphasise that Russia violates the norms of the law of armed conflict, which prohibit the occupying state from making unjustified changes to the laws in force in the occupied territory, as well as international human rights standards, including the right to education.
In particular, the occupation authorities forcibly change the curriculum and take repressive measures against employees of educational institutions who refuse to make these changes.
Human Rights Watch also found that the occupation authorities threatened parents whose children continue to study remotely under the Ukrainian educational program.
THE HOME FRONT
The government has expanded the right to receive one-time assistance to families in the event of the death of a military member.
The Cabinet of ministers has expanded the range of persons entitled to receive one-time monetary assistance in the event of the death of a servicemember. From now on, the military can indicate who will receive assistance and determine the percentage share for each person from the list. This is reported by UNN with reference to the coordination headquarters for the treatment of prisoners of war. UNN reports
The circle of persons who will be eligible for one-time monetary assistance has been expanded:
* a woman (man) who lived with a serviceman without marriage registration;
* grandchildren of the deceased serviceman, provided that their parents have died;
* children born after the death of a serviceman.
The government has officially established the right of a servicemember to independently indicate at his personal disposal the circle of persons who will be entitled to receive a one-time monetary assistance according to the percentage shares of this assistance determined by him.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Two Russian oil depots on fire in Russia’s Tambov Oblast and Adygea after drone strikes
A Russian oil depot situated in Platonovsky, southeast of Russia’s Tambov oblast, more than 400 km away from Ukraine’s border, was allegedly attacked by drones overnight on June 20, resulting in a fuel tank fire, according to the oblast authorities. Also, drones caused a fire at Lukoil’s depot in Adygea, over 330 km behind the lines. Euromaidan Press reported.
The strikes on the two oil facilities are part of Ukraine’s larger campaign. In the past three months, Ukraine has intensified its drone attacks against the Russian oil industry, significantly disrupting fuel supplies crucial for the Russian military, while simultaneously decreasing the Kremlin’s export revenues.
The Russian Defense Ministry alleges that its air defence systems “intercepted” around 15 drones overnight on 20 June, including six over the Republic of Adygea, three over Bryansk Oblast, three over Krasnodar Oblast, and one each in the Rostov, Belgorod, and Oryol oblasts, not mentioning Tambov Oblast.
Russia reaches peak in missile production – Ukraine's Defence Intelligence
Andrii Yusov, Spokesperson for Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (HUR) said during an interview on June 20, that Russians have been at the peak of missile production capabilities for a year.
"Production continues there [in Russia – ed.]. It is sustainable. They have reached the peak of their capabilities and have been steadily at it for a year."
According to Yusov, Russia continues its operation on the northern border, the main strategic goal of which is to "distract our forces and assets" as the main events unfold in the east of Ukraine. However, the situation in Kharkiv Oblast also remains tense.
At the same time, defenders have stopped the Russian invasion in Kharkiv Oblast, although the situation is still difficult: "Globally, their plan failed."
The HUR representative added that the Russian forces remain in this area, with rotation taking place. Russians are bringing in new units to replenish their losses.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
USA deliver missiles to Ukraine instead of Switzerland
Despite written contracts: The United States does not want to deliver Patriot air defence missiles to Switzerland as agreed. The guided missiles are to be delivered to Ukraine as a priority. Swiss publication Blick reports.
This is a setback for Switzerland's defence capability: for CHF 300 million, the federal government has ordered additional PAC-3 guided missiles for the Patriot system. A procurement contract with the United States was signed last fall. This is intended to further strengthen air defence. Now the Defense Department VBS is thwarted by the Ukraine war, as several sources confirm.
The Americans want to supply Ukraine with further patriot missiles first. This has been under heavy Russian fire for months and urges other countries to provide it with more air defence systems.
Switzerland should therefore have to wait longer despite valid contracts. How long seems to be unclear. One thing is clear: global demand is currently far beyond the production capacity of patriot guided missiles. The United States is expected to officially inform about its decision on Tuesday.
US to redirect Patriot air defence orders to Ukraine
The US government is set to halt all open orders for Patriot air defence systems and interceptor missiles until Ukraine has enough to defend itself from Russia’s air attacks. The Financial Times reported on June 20.
Three people with knowledge of the decision said the move would be announced on Thursday, after President Joe Biden said last week in Italy that he had secured commitments for the delivery of additional air defence systems to Ukraine. These would include Patriot missile batteries for which Kyiv has been clamouring after Russia escalated missile and drone attacks on its power plants.
Biden said five countries had agreed to send Patriot and other air defence systems to Ukraine, and that other countries expecting the delivery of the US systems would have to wait because “everything we have is going to go to Ukraine until their needs are met”.
Standing beside Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy after the two signed a 10-year defence pact on the sidelines of the G7 summit in Puglia, Biden added that Kyiv would begin receiving more systems “relatively quickly”.
South Korea hints at potential arms supply to Ukraine in response to N.K.-Russia treaty
The South Korean government said Thursday it will reconsider its stance on arms supply to Ukraine after North Korea and Russia signed a treaty that involves a mutual pledge to provide immediate military assistance if one of them is attacked. The Yonhap News agency reported on June 20.
National Security Advisor Chang Ho-jin also expressed regret over "the comprehensive strategic treaty" signed during the summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Pyongyang on Wednesday.
"The government expresses grave concern and condemns the signing of the comprehensive strategic partnership agreement between North Korea and Russia, which aims to strengthen mutual military and economic cooperation," Chang said in a press briefing at the presidential office.
Chang said any cooperation that directly or indirectly aids North Korea's military enhancement is a violation of United Nations Security Council resolutions and will be subject to international scrutiny and sanctions, and vowed to take corresponding measures.
"We plan to reconsider the issue of arms support to Ukraine," Chang also said, suggesting a shift in South Korea's policy of not providing lethal aid to Ukraine.
"Specific measures will be revealed later, and it will be interesting to see how Russia reacts, rather than revealing our plans in advance."
MILITARY & TECH
Romania to send Patriot defence system to Ukraine
Romania will transfer a Patriot air defence system to Ukraine, the country's Supreme Council of National Defense announced on June 20. The Kyiv Independent reports.
The move came as Kyiv has been calling on its partners to provide additional air defences as Russia intensifies its strikes against Ukrainian population centres and infrastructure.
The Council members decided to donate the Patriot system to Kyiv in coordination with partners in view of the "deteriorating security situation" in Ukraine due to Moscow's constant attacks, the statement read.
Russian drone fragments and debris have been found on Romanian territory on numerous occasions after Moscow's attacks on Ukrainian port infrastructure on the Danube River, prompting Romania to install anti-drone systems, bunkers, and other security measures in the area.
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