UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-05-31
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 60 sources daily, much of which forms the basis of the script. While the Podcast is on hiatus I will make this Draft available here both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 22:30 on May 30 stated that day 828 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.
During the past day, 100 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 19 missile strikes, 52 air strikes, 5540 drone strikes and 2,980 shellings across the positions of our troops.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deep into the territory of Ukraine.
Ukrainian aviation has made 20 airstrikes on areas of concentration of the Russian occupiers' personnel. Missile troops and artillery units hit one PPO vehicle, two artillery systems and one enemy's personnel concentration area.
Russian casualties surpass half a million
The UK Ministry of Defence in its May 31 Intelligence Update stated that the total number of Russian casualties since the start of the full scale invasion in Feb 2022 has likely reached 500,000 (507,650 by Ukrainian estimates) Russian losses have continued at a high level in 2024 and in May the average Russian personnel casualties were over 1,200 per day. - the highest reported since the start of the war.
The elevated casualty rate is highly likely a reflection of Russia’s ongoing attritional offensive which is being conducted across a wide front. It is highly likely that most Russian forces receive only limited training, and they are unable to carry out complex offensive operations. As a result, Russia employs small scale but costly wave attacks in an effort to weaken Ukrainian Defences.
Russia continues to recruit additional forces to sustain this approach. However, the need to continuously replenish front line personnel will almost certainly continue to limit Russia’s ability to generate higher capable units.
We here at The People’s Media covered this on milestone May 25
Air Force Daily Report
On the night of May 31, 2024, the enemy attacked Kharkiv with five S-300/S-400 anti-aircraft guided missiles from the Belgorod region. - Russian Federation, and Kyiv - with an "Iskander-K" cruise missile from the Kursk region - Russian Federation, and also launched four strike UAVs of the "Shahed-131/136" type from Yeyska region - Russian Federation.
As a result of combat work by anti-aircraft missile units and calculations of mobile fire groups, four "shahedis" were destroyed within Kyiv, Zaporizhzhya, and Dnipropetrovsk regions, as well as an "Iskander-K" cruise missile in Kyiv region.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kharkiv axis: There were 2 unsuccessful attacks in the direction of Starytsia
Kupyansk axis: Russia attacked Ukrainian positions 9 times across the front line, the situation is under control.
Lyman axis: Ukrainian forces repelled an attempt of Russian invaders to advance through the Serebryanskyy Forest
Siversk axis: There were 11 attacks in the vicinities of Bilohorivka and Rozdolivka
Kramatorsk axis: There were 9 combat engagements in the vicinity of Kalinivka, Klishchievka, Andriyivka and Chasiv Yar. The situation is intense. Our units are taking active measures to strengthen their defenses.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk axis: Russia made 21 assaults in the vicinity of Ocheretyne, Sokil, Novoselivka Persha, Umanske and Yasnobrodrivka
Kurakhove axis: The situation remains tense. Russia has attacked Ukrainian defenders 21 times in the vicinities of Krasnogorivka, Heorgiivka, Novomikhailivka and Vodiane. All attacks were repelled.
Vremika axis: Russia assaulted in the vicinity of Staromaiorske and Urozhaine unsuccessfully 4 times. The situation is under control
Orikhiv axis: Russia assaulted Ukrainian positions in the vicinity of Robtoyne and Novoandriivka 2 times. Ukrainian forces are taking measures to stabilize the situation and prevent the advancement of Russia.
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Prydniprovsk axis: Russian forces assaulted Ukrainian defences on the left bank of the Dnipro in the vicinity of Krynky 8 times over the previous day. All attacks were repelled.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
SBU drones destroy $100 million Russian Radar in Qirim
On the night of May 29-30, the Russians lost one Nebo-SVU long-range radar detection complex worth about $100 million. Ukrinform reports.
According to Ukrinform sources, the radars were hit by drones, which are the own development of military counter-intelligence units of the SBU.
The interlocutor of the agency reported that this radar near Armyansk controlled a section of the front of 380 km, ensuring the protection of enemy objects on the territory of Qirim .
According to the source, after the attack by the SBU drones, the space intelligence equipment recorded the shutdown of the radar radar radiation and did not record it anymore.
"This SBU special operation made the Russian air defense "blind" on a significant part of the front," the interlocutor said.
Below is a graphic from NoelReports on Twitter of an overview of Ukrainian attacks with both missiles and drones (long-range UAVs and naval drones) in and around occupied Crimea during 2024 that caused confirmed damage. In recent weeks, Ukraine has increased the pace of attacks, through new ATACMS deliveries, but also through the use of its own drones and missiles, especially in the south and southeast of Crimea.
THE HOME FRONT
Zelenskyy: Seventy-five people returned from Russian captivity
Seventy-five people were returned to Ukraine from Russian captivity, among them servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the National Guard, border guards and four civilians, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy said. Interfax Ukraine reports.
“Throughout all of this time, we have not stopped working for a single day to bring everyone home from Russian captivity. And today, we have an important result: 75 more of our people have returned to Ukraine. The Armed Forces, National Guard, border guards, and four civilians. All of them are already on their native land,” Zelenskyy said on the Telegram channel on Friday.
“We remember about every person. We are making every effort to find each and every one of our people. I am grateful to the team responsible for the exchanges,” the President stressed.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Nothing to report.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
Biden secretly gave Ukraine permission to strike inside Russia with US weapons
The Biden administration has quietly given Ukraine permission to strike inside Russia — solely near the area of Kharkiv — using U.S.-provided weapons, two U.S. officials and two other people familiar with the move said Thursday, a major reversal that will help Ukraine to better defend its second-largest city. Politico reports.
“The president recently directed his team to ensure that Ukraine is able to use U.S. weapons for counter-fire purposes in Kharkiv so Ukraine can hit back at Russian forces hitting them or preparing to hit them,” a U.S. official said, adding that the policy of not allowing long-range strikes inside Russia “has not changed.”
Ukraine asked the U.S. to make this policy change only after Russia’s offensive on Kharkiv began this month, the official added. All the people were granted anonymity to discuss internal decisions that haven’t been announced.
In the last few days, the U.S. made the decision to allow Ukraine “flexibility” to defend itself from attacks on the border near Kharkiv, the second U.S. official said.
Some officials are concerned that Ukraine, when it attacks inside Russia using its own drones, has hit military targets unrelated to Russia’s invasion. The U.S. has strongly delivered the message that Kyiv must use American weapons only to directly hit Russian military sites used for its invasion of Ukraine, but not civilian infrastructure.
Ukrainian officials, from President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on down, have pushed for the Biden administration to change its policy ever since Russia launched a large assault on Kharkiv. For weeks they’ve said an inability to attack Russian troop positions over the border complicated Ukraine’s defense of Kharkiv and the country writ large.
US to offer Ukraine security pact as tensions rise between allies
The US is close to signing a new bilateral security pact with Ukraine in a signal of support aiming to assuage Kyiv after “tense” relations that some Ukrainian officials say have hit their lowest ebb since Russia’s full-scale invasion. The Financial Times reported.
The agreement would be the most significant in a series of deals Ukraine has struck with NATO countries that lays out commitments on long-term support, including military training, intelligence sharing and economic assistance.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s frustration with Joe Biden was laid bare this week, when the Ukrainian president rebuked his US counterpart in unusually blunt terms, saying Biden’s plan to attend a Democratic fundraiser rather than Ukraine’s peace summit on June 15-16 was “not a strong decision”.
One Zelenskyy-appointed senior government official who spoke to the Financial Times about the US-Ukraine relationship said: “We are farther apart than ever since the war started. It is very, very tense.”
However days before the peace summit, Zelenskyy and Biden are expected to sign a bilateral security agreement on the sidelines of the G7 meeting in Italy next month, US officials told the FT.
Several Ukrainian officials said that Kyiv’s bitterness over lack of top-level US support for its peace summit initiative was just one of many points of friction with Washington and other western partners that have erupted at a particularly difficult time for Ukraine’s leadership.
The fraying relations and discord come as Ukrainian forces struggle to hold their defensive lines against a bigger and better-armed Russian army in the east, and while Zelenskyy is under huge pressure to mobilise more men and take other unpopular decisions to bolster the war effort.
Zelenskyy to take part in security conference in Singapore
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is expected to take part in the Shangri-La Dialogue security conference in Singapore this coming weekend, Reuters reported on Friday, citing its own sources.
"Security assistance for Ukraine is expected to be one of the key issues discussed at this year's dialogue, Asia's premier security conference. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and the Chinese defence minister, Dong Jun, are among those attending. Two of the sources said Zelenskyy would address delegates at the Shangri-La Dialogue on Saturday. All of the sources declined to be identified because of the sensitivity of the matter," the report notes.
The Ukrainian embassy in Singapore did not respond to a Reuters request for comment. Zelenskyy's office in Kyiv did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
There has been no Russian delegation at the Singapore security meetings since 2022.
The Shangri-La Dialogue, held annually in Singapore by the International Institute of Strategic Studies for the last 21 years, ends on June 2.
Blinken: Biden approves use of U.S. weapons to strike Russian targets on Russian side of border
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken on May 31 during a press conference in Prague has officially confirmed that President Joe Biden has given permission to Ukraine to beat US weapons at military facilities in the Russian Federation. Radio Liberty reports.
“Over the past few weeks, Ukraine has approached us and asked permission to use the weapons we provide to protect against this aggression, including Russian troops, which focus on the Russian side of the border, and then attack Ukraine. This is the – right to the president, and as you have heard, he approved the use of our weapons for this purpose “, – Blinken said
MILITARY & TECH
Ukraine's Neptune Missile Now Able to Strike Targets well inside Russia
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (GSAFU) reports missile strikes that Ukrainian forces launched overnight May 31st, targeting the ferry crossing and oil terminal at Port Kavkaz, in the Krasnodar region of russia. The port is located right across from the Kerch Peninsula in Crimea and was used for military logistics of the russian invasion forces. The attack comes the next day after Ukraine hit russian ferries coursing along that route. Defense Express reports.
The official notice specifies that several Neptune anti-ship missiles of Ukrainian design were used for this attack. "The results of objective control confirm the explosions at the target locations. The accuracy of target destruction is being assessed," the General Staff informs.
Regarding these strikes, Defense Express considers it necessary to emphasise a few nuances. First of all, the incident marks a historical event for Ukraine, as this is the first time that domestically-made missiles were used to strike targets on the territory of the russian federation.
Secondly, there is one more detail of historical significance here: the very fact Neptunes reached and hit the oil terminal at Port Kavkaz indicates a substantial modernization, if not an overhaul of this cruise missile. The key upgrades could include an increase in operational range, in warhead weight, and an improved guidance system.
Most importantly - the closest possible location the missile could have been fired from Ukrainian controlled territory is at least 300 km away
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