UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-07-09
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 60 sources daily, much of which forms the basis of the script. While the Podcast is on hiatus I will make this Draft available here both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 22:00 on July 8 stated that day 867 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.
During the past day, 108 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 3 missile strikes, 50 air strikes, 447 drone strikes and 3130 artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deep into the territory of Ukraine.
Air Force Daily Report
During the day of July 8, 2024, the air defence of southern Ukraine destroyed five reconnaissance drones: three "ZALA", one "Supercam" and one "Orlan-10".
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kharkiv axis: The enemy conducted 7 unsuccessful assault actions supported by aviation, in the areas of Lyptsi, Starytsia, Vovchansk and Tyke. Today we are zooming in on The Institute For the Study of War’s map to see the areas recently liberated by the AFU
Kupyansk axis: The enemy tried to advance 5 times against Ukrainian positions near Petropavlivka, Berestove and Stelmakhivka. The situation is under control.
Lyman axis: Russian troops attacked Ukrainian defenders12 times in the areas of Hrekivka, Makiivka, Nevske and Terny. 2 attacks are ongoing.
Siversk axis: Russian forces carried out 5 unsuccessful assaults in the vicinity of Verkhnokamianske
Kramatorsk axis: The enemy attacked 7 times near the settlements of Hyrhorivka, Chasiv Yar and Andriivka all attacks were suppressed.
Toretsk axis: The enemy for today 16 times stormed near Diliyivka, Toretsk, Northern and Nui-York. All attacks have been stopped.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk axis: The highest intensity of combat remains in this sector. The enemy conducted 38 attacks against Ukrainian defences in this area over the last day mainly in the vicinity Vozdvizhenka, Novooleksandrívka and Novoselivka Persha
Kurakhove axis: The enemy 7 times unsuccessfully attacked our positions near Krasnohorivka, Heorgievka, Paraskovievka and Konstantinivka.
Vremika axis: The Russians have committed 2 unsuccessful offensive actions near Vodiane.
Orikhiv axis: The enemy made 3 attacks in the vicinity of Mala Tokmachka and Robotyne.
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Prydniprovsk axis: In this direction, the situation has not changed significantly. The enemy conducted 3 unsuccessful assault actions on the left bank of the Dnieper.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Total casualties from July 8 attack in Kyiv released
State Emergency Services released the updated tally of casualties from yesterday's Russian missile strikes on Kyiv on July 9.
Search, emergency rescue and restoration work on the territory of Okhmatdyt Hospital has been completed.
It is possible that the figures may change as in the Shevchenkiv district, search and rescue operations are ongoing under the rubble of a residential building.
As a result of yesterday's enemy attack on Kyiv, 32 people were killed, including 4 children, 120 people were injured, including 10 children, and 11 people were rescued.
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UN assessment suggests Kyiv children's hospital suffered direct hit by Russian missile
Evidence from the scene of the children's hospital in Kyiv indicates "a high likelihood" of a direct hit by a Russian Kh-101 cruise missile on July 8, the U.N. Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMUN) said on July 9. The Kyiv Independent reports.
The Okhmatdyt hospital, Ukraine's largest children's medical centre, was hit during a Russian missile attack on the morning of July 8, destroying one hospital building and damaging four others.
The attack killed two people, including a doctor, and wounded 32 others. Eight children were hospitalised.
According to the HRMMUN, more than 1,000 staff members and 670 children were at the hospital at the time of the attack.
"Analysis of the video footage and assessment made at the incident site indicates a high likelihood that the children's hospital suffered a direct hit rather than receiving damages due to an intercepted weapons system," said Danielle Bell, the head of the HRMMUN.
Bell said that video footage shows the technical specification of the type of weapon used and "shows the weapon directly impacting the hospital rather than being intercepted in the air."
A military expert also "visited the site yesterday and observed damages at the site that were consistent with a direct hit," Bell added.
The State Security Service of Ukraine said on July 8 that fragments of the rear body of a Kh-101 cruise missile with a serial number and part of the missile's rudder were found at the scene.
The State Security Service qualified the attack on the hospital "as a war crime and opened criminal proceedings based on this" and released another statement on July 9 after more parts of the missile were found at the site.
A law enforcement source also told the Kyiv Independent on July 8 that the missile aimed at the hospital in accordance with a programmed route.
"It (the missile) was not damaged by air defence systems and hit exactly the target it was programmed to hit," the source added.
RUSSIAN WORLD
ISW - Russia spreads disinformation in an attempt to deflect responsibility for attack a Ukrainian Children's Hospital
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) a US based think tank stated in their July 8 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment that Russian officials and information space actors are attempting to deflect responsibility for the Okhmatdyt Children's Hospital strike by making false claims about the missiles involved and the state of the hospital — all contrary to available evidence.
The Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation warned on July 9 that various Russian propaganda sources are amplifying a wide variety of information operations deflecting blame for the strike away from Russia, including false claims that Ukraine was using part or all of the hospital to treat wounded Ukrainian soldiers, that Ukraine was storing missiles at the hospital, and that Ukrainian air defence missiles and not a Russian missile hit the hospital.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that available footage "clearly confirms" that falling Ukrainian air defence missiles damaged civilian objects within Kyiv City, likely referring to the Okhmatdyt Children's Hospital and not to another medical facility within the city that Ukrainian officials acknowledged was damaged by falling missile debris.
Russian sources widely circulated the footage and image of the missile in the second before it hit the Okhmatdyt Children's Hospital, and some milbloggers even published misleading posts falsely claiming that it was a Ukrainian air defence missile and not an attacking Russian Kh-101 missile.
The trajectory of the missile in the video and the visible turbojet engine under its hull match the frame of a Russian Kh-101 and do not support claims that it was an air defence interceptor, nor does the missile appear damaged by air defence interceptors.
Grumpy here - Look at both images above, by blowing up and digitally blurring the original image Russian propaganda sources attempt to obfuscate that the missile clearly has the telltale turbojet engine mounted on the underside of the missile - a feature of only the Russian KH-101 missile
The Ukrainian SBU also reported that the serial numbers of the missile components match those of other Russian Kh-101s launched at Ukraine.
Some Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces were attempting to strike the Artem machine building plant roughly 1.6 kilometres north of the Okhmatdyt Children's Hospital, but other Russian missiles actually hit the Artem Plant during the strike.
These false Russian information operations would not absolve Russian forces of legal or moral responsibility for the impacts of their strikes against Ukraine even if true.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
Biden promises new measures to strengthen Ukraine’s air defence amid Russian deadly attack on Kyiv’s hospital
President Joe Biden has announced plans to bolster Ukraine’s air defence capabilities in response to a recent Russian missile attack that resulted in civilian casualties, including damage to a children’s hospital in Kyiv. Euromaidan Press reported.
The announcement comes ahead of a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Washington, DC, this week.
According to the statement, Russia’s recent attacks have killed “dozens of Ukrainian civilians” and caused damage at “Kyiv’s largest children’s hospital.” Biden characterises these strikes as a “horrific reminder of Russia’s brutality.”
The President emphasises the importance of continued international support for Ukraine, stating, “It is critical that the world continues to stand with Ukraine at this important moment and that we not ignore Russian aggression.”
Biden reports that he will be hosting President Zelenskyy and NATO leaders in Washington, DC. During this visit, he plans to meet with Zelenskyy to “make clear our support for Ukraine is unshakeable.”
MILITARY & TECH
F-16s in Ukraine may 'create conditions for counterattack,' Polish general says
The arrival of F-16 fighter jets may help Ukraine create conditions for a counterattack, Jaroslaw Kraszewski, a retired Polish brigadier general, said in an interview published on July 9.
Ukraine is expected to receive the first F-16 jets this summer, a year after Denmark and the Netherlands founded the "fighter jet coalition" with nine other countries at the NATO summit in Vilnius in July 2023.
Kraszewski believes that the arrival of F-16s will "dramatically change the situation" on the battlefield, although it is unlikely to be a turning point in Russia's full-scale war.
According to the Polish general, Western aircraft and missiles should help halt Russia's offensive in Kharkiv and Donetsk sectors, as well as "cyclically and effectively" destroy logistics deep inside Russia.
Kraszewski stressed that the West must allow Ukraine to strike deep inside Russia to allow the liberation of Ukrainian territories, a step that Washington has so far refused to take.
Under such conditions, Ukraine could launch a counteroffensive this fall, the general believes.
Ukraine May Receive MiG-29 Squadron From Poland
Ukraine and Poland sign a security agreement that provides additional aircraft transfer and the possibility of destroying missiles over the territory of Ukraine by Polish air defence. Defense Express reported.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Prime Minister of Poland Donald Tusk signed the Agreement on Security Cooperation between two states during Zelenskyy's visit to Poland on Monday, July 8. Under this agreement, Poland will continue supporting Ukraine for ten years of the document's validity.
The full text of the agreement was published on the website of the President of Ukraine. Some details were also announced at a press conference on the occasion of the signing of the security agreements. The agreement also provides for the creation of Ukrainian Legion, cooperation in the defence industry, and the functioning of a logistics hub, etc.
An interesting fact is that the document determined the possibility of intercepting missiles and drones in Ukrainian airspace launched by russian occupation forces in the direction of Poland.
However, it should be noted that this document is only outlines the intention to work in this direction. Poland's further actions will depend on coordination with other NATO member states. This is emphasised by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk as well.
The document also states that Poland will consider providing Ukraine with at least one additional MiG-29 squadron (minimum 14 fighter jets). But there are some conditions. In particular, Tusk said that Poland could not just give away these aircraft, because they "watch over our skies" and carry out NATO Air Policing mission.
The Prime Minister of Poland emphasised that the transfer of the aircraft is possible only if NATO partners are able to replace these jets with other ones. However, he did not specify whether it is the so-called circular exchange, when Poland receives new aircraft in exchange for MiG-29s, or whether other NATO member states will provide their aircraft to patrol the Polish.
"Of course I will persuade our partners here in Poland to implement this kind of decision as soon as possible. But I emphasize that I said this honestly to the President: this cannot be a restriction on Poland's security," Tusk said.
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