UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-01-30
Slava Ukraini! Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 40 sources daily much of which ends up in the script. I will make this Draft available here for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its situation update at 06:00 on Jan. 30 stated that it was day 706 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
During the past day, 70 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 10 missile strikes, 114 air strikes, and 99 MLRS attacks across the positions of our troops and settlements. As a result of the Russian attacks, unfortunately, there are dead and wounded among the civilian population. Destruction and damage to residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure.
Ukraine downs Russian another Su-34 over Luhansk Oblast
Ukrainian air defenses reported shooting down another Russian Su-34 fighter-bomber over Luhansk Oblast on Jan. 29, said Andrii Kovalev, a spokesperson for the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces, on national television on Jan. 30.
The downing of the jet brings the total of Russian military aircraft lost since the beginning of the full-scale invasion to an estimated total of 332 as of Jan. 30.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group is responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine.
Kup’yans’k axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 7 attacks of the enemy near the settlement Synkivka and east of Pishchane(Kharkiv oblast)
Russia claims to have captured Tabaivka
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in its Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment on Jan. 27 reported that, according to Russian sources, Russia's 47th Tank Division had captured Tabaivka. ISW stated at the time that this could not be independently confirmed.
On Jan. 29 a spokesperson for Ukraine’s Ground Forces denied this claim "The enemy claims that they have already captured Tabaivka. This is not true. Battles are taking place not far from this settlement,"
Some immediately pounced on this claim saying aha! He said “around” so that means the Russian’s HAVE captured it. Would you like to see this strategic hub that is the pinnacle achievement of Russia’s winter offensive so far?
If you squint really hard you can just pick out the handful of houses and outbuildings. The village, if it can be called that, had a pre-war population of 34. If you went outside to check your mailbox, you would be “around” the village. This is the level of desperation Russia has sunk to in order to point to any successes in Ukraine.
The horrendous display of Russian soldiers being sacrificed to the altar of Putin’s hubris daily is truly disgusting.
Lyman axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 4 attacks near Terny (Donetsk oblast) and the Serebrianke Forest (Luhansk oblast)
Bakhmut axis: Bakhmut axis: Ukrainian forces repelled 3 attacks near Bohdanivka and Ivanivske (Donetsk oblast)
The Tavria operational-strategic group is responsible for the Avdiivka, Mar’inka, Shaktars’ke, and Zaporizhzhia axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.
Avdiivka axis: Ukrainian defenders continue to hold back the enemy who keeps trying to encircle Avdiivka. AFU soldiers are standing their ground and inflicting major losses on the invaders. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 16 enemy attacks near Novobakhmutivka, Avdiivka, and 8 near Pervomais’ke and Nevel’s’ke (Donetsk oblast).
Mar’inka axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the occupiers in the vicinities of Heorhiivka, Pobjeda and Novomykhailivka (Donetsk oblast). Troops repelled 8 attacks in that area.
Shakhtarske axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 2 attacks south of Zolota-Nyva (Donetsk oblast)
Zaporizhzhia axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 2 attacks near Robotyne and west of Verbove (Zaporizhzhia oblast).
The Odesa operational-strategic group is responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.
Kherson axis: Ukrainian defenders continue to expand the bridgehead. Despite significant losses, the enemy does not abandon its attempts to dislodge Ukrainian troops from their positions. Over the past day, the enemy carried 8 unsuccessful assaults on the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Overnight Russia attacked Ukraine with 35 Shahed drones
Ukraine’s Air Force reported that overnight into 30 January, Russian forces launched the Shaheds from three directions – Russia’s Primorsko-Akhtarsk (southeast of Ukraine), Kursk (north of Ukraine), and occupied Crimea’s Cape Chauda in the south. air defense forces successfully downed 15 of 35 Russo-Iranian suicide drones.
Additionally, the Russians launched two S-300 anti-aircraft guided missiles in their secondary ground-attack role in Donetsk Oblast.
A fire broke out at an enterprise in Kyiv Oblast as drone debris crashed, damaging an administrative building and a hangar, according to regional authorities. Cherkasty and Dnipro regional authorities also reported insignificant damage from the Russian drone attack. Another drone hit an abandoned building in Cherkasy Oblast. A Shahed drone hit the civilian infrastructure facility in Kryvyi Rih, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Amazingly there were no reports of injuries.
THE RUSSIAN WORLD
Russia tries to deal with the increasing scope of attacks at home
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in its Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment on Jan. 29 reported that Russian propaganda claimed on January 29 that the Russian Ministry of Digital Development ordered Russian authorities in Leningrad, Novgorod, and Pskov oblasts to block 4G LTE internet connection until January 30 so that Russian officials can “fine-tune” anti-drone and air defense systems.
Leningrad, Novgorod, and Pskov oblasts previously announced disruptions to 4G LTE internet services from January 25 to January 30 in connection with technical adjustments to the “radio frequency spectrum.”
One Russian propaganda source stated that Voronezh Oblast is conducting similar efforts that have been “planned at the federal level” and that many other unspecified Russian federal subjects are pursuing these efforts at different paces.
Russian electronic warfare (EW) systems and mobile internet providers both operate on frequencies permitted by the Russian State Commission on Radio Frequencies (SCRF), and Russian government source stated that indiscriminate EW use can interfere with mobile data.
It is unclear what impact internet operations may have on the reorientation of EW systems or the deployment of new capabilities and vice versa. It is equally possible that Russian forces may be testing new EW capabilities and preemptively turned off internet services to avoid sudden disruptions. Russian officials may also be limiting access to the internet to conceal the movement of conventional air defense systems within Russia after Ukrainian drone strikes in Leningrad Oblast on January 18 and January 21 suggested that Russian air defenses in northwestern Russia may be ill-deployed to defend against drones launched from Ukraine.
Yaroslavl Oblast Governor Mikhail Yevraev claimed on January 29 that Russian EW systems downed a Ukrainian drone targeting the Slavneft-Yanos oil refinery in Yaroslavl Oblast. Russian sources amplified images of the downed drown at the refinery and claimed that it did not cause any damage.
One source stated that they believe that the timing of the internet disruptions is also associated with security for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ongoing trip to St. Petersburg and Leningrad Oblast.
Russia bombs itself again
The UK Ministry of Defence in its Jan. 30 intelligence Update stated that Russian sources reported on Jan. 27 that Russian aircraft had accidentally dropped two FAB-250 unguided bombs on two separate Russian villages in the Belgorod area. One of the bombs landed on an urban street in the village of Strelestkoye prompting an evacuation of the area.
This is the fourth reported Russian accidental aerial munition discharge on its own territory this month. It is likely that the cause behind these incidents is twofold: Poor procedures when arming the aircraft and poor execution by aircrews during the mission.
The increasing frequency of these occurrences likely demonstrates a degree of air and ground crew fatigue within Russian forces as well as exposing inadequate training.
China Secretly Reportedly Delivered Weapons in Belarus Four Times in January
The Belaruski Hajun monitoring community reported unusually high activity of a Boeing 747-4FTF transport jet of the Air China Cargo company in the Minsk airport, belarus. The aircraft carried out four flights two-way between China and Belarus within January 8–11. The planes arrived at approximately the same time early in the morning and spent about three hours there, an average amount of time necessary to unload cargo.
These aircraft stopped in areas of the airport normally reserved for Belarussian military aircraft only. The monitoring group claim the planes were delivering military equipment to Belarus, which was taken out of the airport as quickly and secretly as possible, so as not to attract unnecessary attention.
Putin's declares an income of approximately US$750,000 over six years
In a lie so staggering it defies belief, ahead of Russia’s presidential elections, It’s Central Election Commission has published President Vladimir Putin’s income declaration, which states that he has earned an amount equivalent to US$750,000 since 2018.
Officially Putin’s only residence is an 800 sq foot apartment in Moscow. However a number of publications including Fortune states that he owns at least 8 homes, several of them are literal palaces and is estimated to have personal wealth of at least 200 Billion USD.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
Rheinmetall to build new ammo factory to meet needs of Germany and Ukraine
Rheinmetall AG, a leading German arms manufacturer, will build a new ammunition factory to supply the German and Ukrainian armed forces, Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger told Bild.
Against the backdrop of the Russian increasing arms production and North Korea’s transfer of artillery ammunition to Russia, the Ukrainian army is forced to ration ammunition due to the suspension of US military aid.
According to Armin Papperger, there is a productive cooperation between the German federal government and the arms industry.
“A lot has changed for the better in the field of military procurement. The pace is fast: what would have taken ten years in the past is now being done in a few months. We will now build a new ammunition plant in Germany in record time to create strategic supply security,” Rheinmetall’s CEO said.
EU to Break Ukraine Aid Standoff 'With or Without Orban,'
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said Tuesday, ahead of key talks on the Ukraine conflict, that the EU would find a way to provide aid to Ukraine "with or without" Hungary's approval.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who maintained close ties to the Kremlin following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, in December vetoed 50 billion euros ($54 billion) in EU aid for Ukraine.
The bloc will hold a special summit on Thursday to seek a solution to the standoff as the war nears its second anniversary.
"I have never seen such an unequivocal position and determination in any matter as at this moment to increase military and financial assistance to Ukraine during the war. Without a doubt, Viktor Orban will face a very serious test. Everything points to the fact that one way or another we will find some kind of solution to support Ukraine - with or without Orban. But it would be better, and we would all feel better in this situation, if the unity of Europe on this issue was preserved. And we are working on it,"
— Donald Tusk, Prime Minister of Poland
Populist leaders in Europe, including in Slovakia and Hungary, have condemned the conflict and Kyiv's urgent requests for tens of billions of euros in support. Only Budapest vetoed the latest aid package however.
Latvia prepares to ban grain imports from Russia and Belarus
Latvian Prime Minister Evika Siliņa (Unity party), Agriculture Minister Armands Krauze (Union of Greens and Farmers) and Andris Šuvajevs, leader of the Progressive party, announced following a ruling coalition meeting on 29 January that they are going to prepare and pass a draft law banning grain imports in February.
Latvia has been discussing the possibility of banning grain imports from Russia and Belarus for a long time, but until now the coalition believed this decision should be taken at the EU level, with a unilateral ban making no sense because Russian grain might end up in Latvia via other EU countries.
Last week, Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs said that he supported Latvia banning the import of Russian grain unilaterally.
EU Moves Toward Using Profits From Frozen Russian Assets To Help Ukraine
Permanent representatives of the EU countries at a meeting on 29 January coordinated the creation of a separate account to which the interest from taxed income of frozen Russian assets will be transferred. Radio Liberty reported.
EU nations have decided to approve an outline deal to keep in reserve profits from hundreds of billions of dollars in Russian central bank assets frozen in retaliation for Moscow's war in Ukraine, an EU official said. The tentative agreement still needs formal approval but is seen as a step toward using some of the 200 billion euros in central bank assets to help Ukraine rebuild from Russian destruction.
The official, who asked not to be identified, said the move “would allow [them] to start collecting the extraordinary revenues generated from the frozen assets...to support the reconstruction of Ukraine.”
MILITARY & TECH
Russia’s newest kamikaze drone has been captured by Ukraine
Defence Blog reports that Ukrainian soldiers have recovered an almost fully intact Shahed-136, a kamikaze-type drone that is used by the Russian military for conducting strikes on critical infrastructure and civilian targets.
This well-preserved drone was found in a field following the recent extensive Russian massive, combined air attack on Ukraine. Judging from the available images, it appears that the drone was brought down by an undisclosed electronic warfare system.
Examination of the drone has revealed a number of interesting features in addition to the fact it is painted black, which is meant to complicate visual identification, particularly during nighttime operations.
The new drones feature composite bodies filled with a solid foam-like material, a departure from their earlier modular counterparts with honeycomb cell-like structures.
These are the Russian manufactured analog referred to as Geran-2, assembled in a facility located 500 miles east of Moscow in the Tatarstan region, utilizing kits supplied from Iran. Western intelligence reports suggest that the Kremlin is ramping up the production of these drones, with plans to enhance localization by establishing additional manufacturing facilities for their components over time.
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