UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-01-18
Slava Ukraini! Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 40 sources daily much of which ends up in the script. I will make this Draft available here for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its situation update at 06:00 on Jan.19 stated that it was the 694th day of full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
During the past day, 78 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 9 missile strikes,128 air strikes, and 77 MLRS attacks across the positions of our troops and settlements. As a result of the Russian attacks, unfortunately, there are dead and wounded among the civilian population. Destruction and damage to residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure.
Ukrainian Armed Forces experiencing ammunition shortage
Ukrainian Defence Minister Rustem Umierov said at the opening of the artillery coalition in Paris that the Armed Forces on the battlefield are short of ammunition and artillery capabilities for Ukraine must be increased.
"The shortage of ammunition is an extremely urgent problem that our Armed Forces are currently facing. We need to find a way to solve this problem together."
— Rustem Umierov, Defence Minister of Ukraine
According to Umierov, the reality of this war is that Russia has a huge advantage over the Ukrainian Armed Forces in daily artillery attacks. "In various sectors of the contact line and at various stages of combat operations, they fired 5-10 times more artillery shells than the Ukrainian forces did," the minister stressed.
Umierov noted that increasing Ukraine's artillery capabilities would enhance our common security. "This will give us much more opportunities for sustained progress on the battlefield. And that will bring our victory closer," he said.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group is responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine.
Kup’yans’k axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 6 enemy attacks in the vicinity of Syn’kivka (Kharkiv oblast).
Lyman axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 13 attacks of the occupiers near Terny, Yampovlivka (Luhansk oblast) and 5 near Bilogorivka (Donetsk oblast).
Bakhmut axis: Ukrainian forces repelled 8 attacks nearHryhorivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka and Andriivka (Donetsk oblast).
The Tavria operational-strategic group is responsible for the Avdiivka, Mar’inka, Shaktars’ke, and Zaporizhzhia axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.
Avdiivka axis: Ukrainian defenders continue to hold back the enemy who keeps trying to encircle Avdiivka. AFU soldiers are standing their ground and inflicting major losses on the invaders. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 13 enemy attacks near Novobakhmutivka, Stepove, Avdiivka, and 14 near Pervomais’ke and Nevel’s’ke (Donetsk oblast).
Mar’inka axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the occupiers in the vicinities of Krasnogorivka, Heorhiivka, Mar’inka and Novomykhailivka (Donetsk oblast). Troops repelled 10 attacks in that area.
Shakhtarske axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 1 attack near Novodonetsk (Donetsk oblast)
Zaporizhzhia axis: No significant offensive action.
The Odesa operational-strategic group is responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea
Kherson axis: Ukrainian defenders continue to expand the bridgehead. Despite significant losses, the enemy does not abandon its attempts to dislodge Ukrainian troops from their positions. Over the past day, the enemy made 6 unsuccessful assaults on the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Russian Shahed suicide drone attack damages residential buildings, injures civilians
Overnight on January 17-18, Russia launched an attack on Ukraine involving 33 Shahed-136/131 drones. Ukrainian air defense units successfully intercepted and destroyed 22 of those Russian drones.
The Ukrainian Air Force and the Defence Forces of Ukraine provided an update on Telegram, stating Russia launched drones from Primorsko-Akhtarsk in southern Russia and Kursk Oblast bordering northern Ukraine. Additionally, Kharkiv Oblast was targeted with two S-300 anti-aircraft guided missiles launched from Belgorod Oblast.
Most drones attempted to target the southern and northern regions of Ukraine. Ukrainian Air Force used anti-aircraft units, mobile firing groups, and electronic warfare tools to repel the attack in Sumy, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, and Khmelnytskyi oblasts.
The Russian air attack damaged several residential buildings and injured a woman in Kherson. Russian drones also targeted an agricultural enterprise in the Beryslav community of the Kherson Oblast.
THE RUSSIAN WORLD
“Brotherhood of nations”: Russia opens museum of looted Ukrainian belongings
The Russian city of Nefteyugansk has opened a museum displaying the personal belongings of Ukrainians living in territories occupied by Russia, reports local propaganda outlet NEFT.
Among the exhibits are Ukrainian-language newspapers, children’s books, vehicle license plates, tape recorders, medals, and IDs. Organizers claim volunteers brought back these items from “humanitarian” missions to occupied Ukraine.
The exhibit was organized by activists from the local Union of Marines of Russia. According to the group’s leader, Denis Gribkov, the museum intends to highlight Russian and Ukrainian similarities and tell of the so-called “brotherhood” among the USSR’s peoples.
Organizers say the exhibit will continue expanding with additional items looted from occupied Ukrainian territory. They plan to invite adults and children to indoctrinate them through “educational” programming.
Ukraine strikes Russian oil depot in St Petersburg
An attack on an oil depot in Russia's Leningrad Oblast by Ukrainian drones on the night of 17-18 January was a special operation by the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine.
Andrii Yusov, a representative of Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence stated in an on air interview that the drone attack carried out on an oil depot in St Petersburg on the night of 17-18 January demonstrates a "new level of quality" of means of destruction.
"As usual, we neither confirm nor deny, but simply state [facts]. There have been explosions in Leningrad Oblast before, but this time, this is a new level of quality in terms of both geography and the means of destruction. And yes, the enemy has reason to worry about its military facilities located in St Petersburg and Leningrad Oblast.
An oil depot that is being actively used to circumvent sanctions and, accordingly, to supply and finance the invaders’ troops and the occupation corps in Ukraine – these are proper and legitimate targets for such incidents."
— Andrii Yusov, Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence
Russian Defence Minister inspects Putin's missiles at factory, orders to increase their range
Russian propaganda has released a video featuring Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu inspecting the production of missiles ordered by the Kremlin.
Sergei Bogatikov, Director General of the State Machine Building Design Bureau Raduga, reported to Shoigu that the range of one of the products, the production of which has been increased according to the state defence order, is 250 km.
Shoigu then ordered Bogatikov to "increase the range to 300 kilometres or more". Like he could wave a magic wand or something.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
US Lawmakers Hold Ukraine-Aid Talks at White House
US President Joe Biden met with top-ranking congressional leaders on Wednesday to try to break a deadlock on his proposed $60 billion aid package for Kyiv, which has been stalled for more than a month.
No breakthrough was announced as senators and representatives exited the White House, but it seemed clear that the Senate will take the lead in negotiations and will introduce a bill soon on border reform to set the table for a vote in the House on Ukraine.
Leaving the meeting, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) said it was a "productive meeting" but insisted Biden needed to do more on immigration.
“We must insist that the border be the top priority. I think we have some consensus around that table,” he told reporters.
Joining Biden and Johnson at the White House were Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), and House Minority Leader Hakim Jeffries (D-NY).
After the meeting, McConnell assured that both parties in the Senate could come to an accord on border policy to open the door to supplemental spending on Ukraine, and “likely” will put forth a bill on that next week.
Senator Schumer following the meeting said he was optimistic.
Ukrainian Documentary 20 Days in Mariupol nominated for BAFTA
The Ukrainian documentary film "20 Days in Mariupol" by Mstyslav Chernov has been nominated for the British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) award. It has received nominations in two categories: Best Documentary and Best Foreign Language Film.
The movie tells the story of the 20 days Chernov spent with his colleagues in besieged Mariupol after the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The Ukrainian Oscar Committee has also submitted "20 Days in Mariupol" from Ukraine for the 96th Academy Award in the Best Foreign Language Film category.
"20 Days in Mariupol" has become the highest-grossing Ukrainian documentary in history.
UK Minister declares end of “post war” era in historic speech
On 16 January, UK Defence Minister Grant Shapps delivered a historic speech at Lancaster House. Similar in its effect to German Chancellor Scholz’s groundbreaking announcement of a Zeitenwende and a new era of Russian relations, Shapps acknowledges that Europe and the world is moving from a post-war world to a pre-war one.
He says that the UK has started building a 100-year alliance with Ukraine, that the UK must lead and deter to stand up for its values around the world, and that Ukraine, which is fighting an existential battle, is a test case for whether the growing axis of autocracies will expand and wreak more conflict around the world.
Below is an excerpt from his speech:
The belligerent autocratic state was making a comeback – having got away with the illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, Putin launched his brutal invasion of Ukraine eight years later.
And as Russia continues its illegal campaign in Ukraine, China is assessing whether the West loses its patience. Today, Russia and China have been joined by new nuclear, and soon to be nuclear, powers. North Korea promising to expand its own nuclear arsenal. And then there is Iran, whose enriched uranium is up to 83.7%, a level at which there is no civilian application.
Back in the days of the Cold War there remained a sense that we were dealing with rational actors. But these new powers are far more unstable, and irrational.
Can we really assume the strategy of Mutually Assured Destruction that stopped wars in the past will stop them in future, when applied to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard or North Korea? I am afraid we cannot.
MILITARY & TECH
France ramps up weapons production for Ukraine and says Russia is testing the West's mettle
France announced more planned deliveries of its Caesar artillery system to Ukraine on Thursday and accelerating weapons manufacturing as it seeks to avoid depleting its own military stocks while continuing to support the war effort against Russia’s invasion.
France also launched a drive to fund the delivery of 78 Caesar self-propelled 155 mm howitzers to Ukraine this year. Ukraine has already paid for six of the guns itself and France will provide 50 million euros (US$ 54 million) to deliver 12 more, Lecornu said separately in a speech. France is also seeking 280 million euros ($305 million) from other allies of Ukraine to pay for the 60 other Caesars, the minister said.
Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, speaking by video link, said Russian forces are firing five times more artillery shells, even 10 times more in some places, than Ukrainian forces along the front lines and that stronger artillery “is one of our key needs to win this war.”
“Shortage of ammunition, shell hunger, is a very real and pressing problem," he said.
Lecornu said increased supplies of shells for Ukraine are on their way. From this month, France will supply 3,000 shells for 155 mm guns per month, up from 1,000 shells per month at the start of the war and 2,000 per month since last April, Lecornu said
French businesses have also cut production times as they move to a war footing. Nexter used to take 30 months to make one Caesar but now requires only half that time.
“In this phase of the war, we need endurance in our military aid for Kyiv," Lecornu said. “Russia is betting that time is on its side." He said Russia, Iran and North Korea are scrutinizing the mettle of Ukraine's partners.
“Our capacity to show endurance and reliability is being watched in Moscow, and Pyongyang or Tehran for that matter,” he said.
Ukraine Tests New Jet-Powered Kamikaze Drone
A new kamikaze jet drone made its first flight in Ukraine. This was announced by Maxim Glushak on his Facebook page.
The photos reveal an unmanned aerial vehicle developed in a canard configuration with a horizontal front tail. In the aft part, there is a propulsion system of an unknown type. In the accompanying video, which shows a test flight of the vehicle the propulsion system appears to be a jet engine.
This is also not the first jet-powered drone Ukraine has displayed to the world. The UJ-25 Skyline jet-powered drone was spotted embedded in the roof of a building in occupied Berdyansk in December. The Skyline made its first public appearance in September in an interview with Mykhailo Fedorov, deputy prime minister for innovation, education, science and technology and minister of digital transformation on CNN.
50 bombs per month: France announced the supply of AASM Hammer to Ukraine
French Defense Minister Sebastian Lecornu announced the delivery of AASM Hammer cruise bombs to Ukraine. VSU will receive 50 aerial bombs per month. Reports L'Express.
France plans to send Ukraine 600 AASM Hammer aerial bombs. According to the Minister of Defense, the bombs were integrated into the Soviet MiG-29 and SU-27, which are in the arsenal of the Ukrainian Air Force.
"A very important point — we will begin to supply AASM aerial bombs. We managed to adapt them to the Soviet aircraft "MiG" and "Dry"... We will supply 50 bombs per month throughout 2024, starting in January, "" TAG1> told Lekorn.
In addition, France continues to increase ammunition production. If at the beginning 1000 shells were produced per month, then last year the amount was doubled, and since January production has reached 3,000 ammunition per month. Earlier, Foreign Minister Stefan Sezhurne during a visit to Ukraine said that France is considering the possibility of producing French weapons in Ukrainian territory to help the Armed Forces.
Yesterday I released a stand alone article on my own Substack with some speculation that France would be providing these weapons and the sudden interest from the Ukrainian Air Force in acquiring a very specific model of the French Mirage 2000 (which would make an ideal platform for launching these weapons and the SCALP cruise missile that France is also supplying) At least half of my speculation has now been proven correct, lets see how the rest of it goes.
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