UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-07-07
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 60 sources daily, much of which forms the basis of the script. While the Podcast is on hiatus I will make this Draft available here both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 22:00 on July 6 stated that day 865 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.
During the past day, 123 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 2 missile strikes, 48 air strikes, 317 drone strikes and 2,772 artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deep into the territory of Ukraine.
Air Force Daily Report
On the night of July 7, 2024, the enemy attacked with two "Iskander-M" ballistic missiles and 13 "Shahed-131/136" strike UAVs from the Kursk region. - Russian Federation
As a result of combat work by anti-aircraft missile units, calculations of mobile fire groups of the Defense Forces and EW means of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, 13 "shaheed" were shot down in the Kirovohrad, Kharkiv, Sumy and Poltava regions.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kharkiv axis: The enemy conducted 9 assault actions supported by aviation, in the areas of Hlyboke, Lyptsi and Vovchansk. 4 clashes remain ongoing.
Kupyansk axis: The enemy tried to advance 6 times against Ukrainian positions near Synkivka, Petropavlivka and Stelmakhivka. The situation is under control.
Lyman axis: Russian troops attacked Ukrainian defenders19 times in the areas of Hrekivka, Makiivka, Nevske, Terny and Torske
Siversk axis: Russian forces carried out 4 assaults in the vicinity of Sprine and Vyimka. The situation is under control.
Kramatorsk axis: The enemy attacked nine times near the settlements of Kalynivka, Klishchivka, Chasiv Yar, Andriivka and Ivanivske, all attacks suppressed.
Toretsk axis: The situation is tense in this direction. The invaders attacked near Pivichne, Toretsk, Zalizne and Nui-York 18 times unsuccessfully.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk axis: The highest intensity of combat remains in this sector. The enemy conducted 41 attacks against Ukrainian defences in this area over the last day in the vicinity of Kalynove, Vozdvizhenka, Novooleksandrívka, Prohes, Yevhenívka, Novoselivka Persha, Yasnobrodivka and Netailove. 13 combat clashes are still ongoing.
Kurakhove axis: The enemy, supported by aviation, 7 times unsuccessfully attacked the positions of the Defense Forces mainly in the vicinity of Paraskoviika and Kostiantynivka, 2 attacks are still in progress.
Vremika axis: The enemy made 2 attempts to attack Ukrainian positions near the settlements of Vodyane.
Orikhiv axis: The enemy made 4 attacks in the vicinity of Novoandriivka, Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka and Robotyne.
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Prydniprovsk axis: In this direction, the situation has not changed significantly. The enemy conducted 1 unsuccessful assault action on the left bank of the Dnieper.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Explosion at Gas distribution facility in Qirim
An explosion at a gas distribution point in Russian-occupied Alushta, Qirim, led to a large fire overnight on 7 July, according to reports from the Telegram channel Crimean Wind.
The Russian-installed Mayor of Alushta, Galina Ogneva, confirmed that the gas supply to 14 settlements in the Alushta area had been halted due to the fire. “There is a risk of a complete gas shutdown,” Ogneva said.
While the exact cause of the explosion remains unclear, Kremlin-appointed authorities have ruled out sabotage, attributing the incident to a technical malfunction.
Social media reports suggest the explosion occurred between the villages of Maly Mayak and Vynohradny in the Alushta district, likely originating from a gas main. Rescue teams and forestry workers were reportedly on-site, working to contain the fire and prevent its spread.
Ukrainian intelligence targets Russian logistics and electronic warfare in occupied Donetsk
Ukrainian intelligence operatives conducted two strikes against Russian military targets in the Russian-occupied part of Donetsk Oblast on 6 July, according to the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense (HUR).
The HUR reports that Ukrainian forces hit a logistics centre in the occupied town of Debaltseve. “Russian military stored equipment for tanks and ammunition there,” the intelligence agency reported.
In a separate operation, Ukrainian military personnel reportedly destroyed a Russian R-330Zh Zhitel electronic warfare system in the settlement of Novoluhanske. This complex is designed to create radio interference.
The HUR emphasised that these operations were carried out in collaboration with aerial reconnaissance units from the 45th Separate Artillery Brigade.
These strikes demonstrate Ukraine’s continued efforts to disrupt Russian military logistics and communications in occupied territories. The targeting of tank equipment storage could potentially impact Russia’s armoured capabilities in the region, while the destruction of the electronic warfare system may affect their ability to jam Ukrainian communications.
THE HOME FRONT
Russia attacked more than 80 Ukrainian infrastructure facilities on 6 July
The Military Media Centre of Ukraine’s Defence Ministry released an infographic map of the consequences of Russian shelling over the past day. In total, Russian troops fired on 10 oblasts of Ukraine. Russia attacked 130 settlements and 83 infrastructure facilities in Ukraine.
The Russians used various types of weapons, including mortars, tanks, artillery, MLRSs, UAVs, SAMs, and tactical aircraft.
There are dead and wounded among civilians, the number of victims is being specified.
Kyiv restores two thirds of its own generating capacity after missile attacks continues repairing equipment
Kyiv has restored two-thirds of its own generating capacities after missile attacks and continues this work using the most modern European technologies. The deputy head of the Kyiv City State Administration (KCSA), Petro Panteleev reported.
During a meeting organised by the Reforming the Centralised Heat Supply Sector in Ukraine project (ReWarm), Panteleev, quoted by the KCSA press service on Saturday, reported that deliveries of necessary powerful equipment from European colleagues are ongoing.
The official reminded that the capital's energy facilities had been subjected to more than ten attacks, resulting in more than half of the generating capacities being out of order.
Panteleev also reminded that Kyiv has about 11,000 multi-story buildings, a significant portion of which have engineering equipment dependent on electricity. "These include water supply and heating system pumps, elevators, and similar equipment. The city has developed and is implementing four programs as tools for building communities to establish backup power sources. These include a 70/30 co-financing program for energy efficiency measures, a repair co-financing program, a program to reimburse costs for alternative power purchases, and a program for providing preferential loans. To date, more than 1,000 building communities have participated in such programs and have completed energy efficiency measures," the city official said.
One of Ukraine's wealthiest oligarchs left Ukraine using forged documents
Hennadii Boholiubov, an associate of Ukrainian oligarch Ihor Kolomoiskyi and former co-owner of Ukrainian bank PrivatBank, is believed to have left Ukraine illegally using forged documents. Ukrainska Pravda reports citing sources in the Ukrainian Prosecutor General's Office and business circles.
Boholiubov fled because Ukraine's Economic Security Bureau had intended to serve him with a notice of suspicion in the PrivatBank case. [The case concerns allegations of financial misconduct and mismanagement at Ukraine's largest commercial bank which led to its nationalisation in 2016 due to significant financial losses.]
Boholiubov reportedly left the country using forged documents, though he entered Poland using his personal ones. The businessman is now in Austria. He left Ukraine by means of the Kyiv-Chełm train on the night of 23-24 June.
Additionally, sources report that a Ukrainian border guard who assisted the businessman in fleeing to Poland was taken into custody on 6 July.
RUSSIAN WORLD
An oil depot blaze in Russia’s Krasnodar Krai region took two days to extinguish
According to the Krasnodar Krai Regional Operational Centre it took two days for Russian firefighters to put out a fire at an oil depot in the village of Leningradskaya after a drone attack on Kuban, Russia. Ukrainska Pravda reports.
It was only on Sunday morning, 7 July, that the fire at an oil depot in the rural locality of Leningradskaya was reported to have been extinguished.
Local authorities reported that a UAV attack had caused a fuel tank to catch fire on the night of 5-6 July.
The Russians also reported a drone attack in the rural locality of Pavlovskaya, where a fuel storage tank burst into flames.
Leaked documents suggest more Russians killed in Ukraine than previously thought
The Economist reported on July 5, citing leaked documents from the U.S. Defense Department that Between 462,000 and 728,000 Russian soldiers were killed, injured, or captured by mid-June.
Russia's losses in Ukraine since 2022 exceed the number of cumulative casualties the country faced in military conflicts since the Second World War.
Russia does not broadcast the number of its soldiers that have been killed or injured since the start of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. But various sources suggest that it has recently passed a new milestone. Our four charts below visualise the toll.
The first plots estimates from official and unofficial sources over time. The most recent data, published on July 5th by Mediazona and Meduza, two independent Russian media outlets, suggest that Russia’s death toll has crossed 100,000, with 106,000-140,000 dead by June 21st. Much of their analysis is based on inheritance records and obituaries on social media and in other outlets. (Their data since February 6th, however, is based on trends, as their access to official records has been disrupted.) Their number is broadly consistent with other recent sources: officials in France recently put the total at 150,000 by May, and BBC Russia reckons that at least 113,000 Russians had died by June.
These data do not include Ukrainians recruited by Russia from occupied territories. Nor do they include Russian soldiers who have been severely wounded and are unable to return to battle. Our rough calculations, based on leaked documents from America’s defence department, suggest that probably around three to four Russian soldiers are wounded for every one killed in battle. That would mean that between 462,000 and 728,000 Russian soldiers were out of action by mid-June—more than Russia’s estimated invading force in February 2022. (French and British officials estimate that around 500,000 Russians had been severely injured or killed by May.)
This chart shows the effect of these losses on Russia’s demography. The greatest losses have been among those aged between 35 and 39, 27,000 of whom are estimated to have been killed between February 2022 and June 2024. But as a percentage of Russia’s male population, losses of those aged between 45 and 49 have been most severe. The latest estimates suggest that roughly 2% of all Russian men aged between 20 and 50 may have been either killed or severely wounded in Ukraine since the start of the full-scale war.
The final chart puts the numbers in historical context. Russia’s losses in Ukraine since 2022 dwarf the number of casualties from all its wars since the second world war combined (see chart 4). Even so, Western officials and analysts suggest that the heavy losses are unlikely to affect Russia’s supply of manpower in the near to medium term: the New York Times reported in June that American officials reckoned the country was able to recruit between 25,000 and 30,000 soldiers a month.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
Stoltenberg Confirms $43 Billion NATO Aid Package For Ukraine
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg confirmed that the alliance will provide 40 billion euros ($43 billion) in military aid to Ukraine in 2025. He told a news conference in Brussels that NATO leaders will "reaffirm their determination to support Ukraine" at a Washington summit on July 9-11. Radio Liberty reports.
Stoltenberg has pressed for a multiyear commitment from the alliance on aid to Ukraine, but the current package will be reevaluated the following year, officials said. Separately, a senior U.S. official told reporters in Washington that NATO allies will present a "bridge-to-membership" scenario for Ukraine at the summit.
Chinese Soldiers Arrive In Belarus For Anti-Terrorism Exercises
Chinese soldiers arrived in Belarus on July 6 for joint a “anti-terrorism training exercise,” Belarus’s Defense Ministry said on Telegram.Radio Free Europe reports.
It said the manoeuvres will be held from July 8-19. The joint training “will allow…the laying of a foundation for further development of Belarusian-Chinese relations in the field of joint training of troops,” it said. Belarus on July 4 joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a regional grouping promoted by Beijing and Moscow as an alternative to Western influence, while China has been making moves in recent years to increase ties with countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia.
MILITARY & TECH
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