UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-01-14
Slava Ukraini! Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 40 sources daily much of which ends up in the script. I will make this Draft available here for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its situation update at 06:00 on Jan. 14 stated that it was the 690th day of large-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
During the past day, 61 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 32 missiles and 91 air strikes, carried out 82 MLRS attacks across the positions of our troops and settlements. As a result of the Russian terrorist attacks, unfortunately, there are dead and wounded among the civilian population. Destruction and damage to residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group is responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine.
Kup’yans’k axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 4 enemy attacks in the vicinity of Syn’kivka (Kharkiv oblast).
Lyman axis: the Ukrainian defenders repelled 6 attacks of the occupiers near Makiivka (Luhansk oblast) and Terny (Donetsk oblast).
Bakhmut axis: the Ukrainian soldiers repelled 2 attacks near Klishchiivka and Andriivka (Donetsk oblast).
The Tavria operational-strategic group is responsible for the Avdiivka, Mar’inka, Shaktars’ke, and Zaporizhzhia axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.
Avdiivka axis: the Ukrainian defenders continue to hold back the enemy who keeps trying to encircle Avdiivka. AFU soldiers are standing their ground and inflicting major losses on the invaders. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 5 enemy attacks near Novobakhmutivka and Avdiivka, and 15 attacks near Pervomais’ke and Nevel’s’ke (Donetsk oblast).
Mar’inka axis: the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the occupiers in the vicinities of Krasnogorivka and Novomykhailivka (Donetsk oblast). Troops repelled 17 attacks in that area.
Shakhtarske axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 4 attacks south of Prechystivka and west of Staromaiorske (Donetsk oblast).
Zaporizhzhia axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 2 attacks of the adversary near Robotyne, (Zaporizhzhia oblast).
The Odesa operational-strategic group is responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea
Kherson axis: the Ukrainian defenders continue to expand the bridgehead. Despite significant losses, the enemy does not abandon its attempts to dislodge Ukrainian troops from their positions. Over the past day, the enemy made 5 unsuccessful assaults on the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Nothing to report.
THE RUSSIAN WORLD
Is Moscow to be plunged into frigid darkness for 12 hours a day?
The Express reports that a desperate Vladimir Putin plunges 22 million Russians into darkness in bitter -22C winter.
Vladimir Putin has reportedly ordered rolling energy blackouts across Moscow as temperatures reach - 22C. The blackouts are said to cover the entire Moscow metropolitan area which has a total population of around 22 million.
The order issued states that electricity is "not to exceed 12 hours per day" with the blackouts in place from Jan. 14 through March 31 2024, according to Ukraine commentator Igor Sushko.
The announcement was posted on the Energosbyt website, but has since been removed and Moscow Ministry of Energy said that it was a 'fake.' Time will tell.
The Blackouts are the result of a heating main ruptured at the Klimovsk Specialised Ammunition Plant in Podolsk, about 30 miles south of central Moscow, on January 4.
As a result, tens of thousands of Russians are said to be without heat in their homes in the Moscow region due to subzero temperatures.
Grumpy here. A quick aside for comparison. Ten years ago in Jan. 2014 In the part of Canada where I live a combination of factors led to part of our province being without power in the dead of winter for extended periods of time and rolling blackouts. It lasted for one week, we called it “DarkNL”. It was the main factor that toppled the government and as a result we expended billions to modernize our electrical infrastructure to ensure it never happened again.
If this is true, and Putin intends to put the privileged people of Moscow through this for two and a half months. Lets see how Muscovites react.
Russia’s Health Care system appears to be crumbling
The UK ministry of defence in its Jan. 14 Intelligence Update stated that the impact on the war against Ukraine on healthcare in Russia is highly likely adversely affecting the civilian population.
Russian media has reported that the general public is struggling to access hospital services throughout the country. A shortage of medical supplies is also being reported, including broad-spectrum antibiotics.
The war is likely to be significantly contributing to this situation as hospitals all over Russia are treating wounded military personnel. The Kremlin is also being forced to reduce the civilian healthcare estate nationwide, due both to a lack of clinical staff and financial pressures presumably from Russia diverting more of its budget to its military.
I draw your attention to to a story we covered just yesterday from the Jan. 13 GSAFU morning report which, unusually brought up the overloading of Russian and Russian run hospitals in the occupied regions that are overrun due to the influx of casualties from the front
NEWS WORLDWIDE
80 countries attend Ukraine Peace Formula meeting at Davos
Andriy Yermak, head of the office of the president of Ukraine reported that Eighty countries and one international organisation attended the fourth national security advisers' meeting on Ukraine’s Peace Formula at Davos, Switzerland.
That’s an increase from the 66 attendees at the previous meeting, held in Malta, Yermak said. The Davos meeting had 39 countries from Europe, 18 from Asia, 12 from Africa, six from South America, three from North America and two from Oceania.
“A good sign is also the steady increase in the number of countries joining the work on the joint action plan, which is based on the Ukrainian Peace Formula,
The countries of the Global South regions are increasingly included in our work. This shows an understanding: this conflict in Europe is a challenge for all of humanity.”
— Andriy Yermak, head of the office of the president of Ukraine
According to the Swiss Foreign Ministry statement, the main goal of the meetings is “to finalise the talks at the level of national security advisers on principles for a lasting and just peace in Ukraine.”
Europe buying Russian oil via India at record rates in 2023
The EU’s imports of refined oil imports from India grew to record levels in 2023 at the same time as New Delhi’s imports of Russian crude oil more than doubled year on year, the Independent reports .
This means consumers in Europe likely received unprecedented volumes of petrol, diesel, kerosene and other oil products that originate from Russia via India last year, in spite of the sanctions imposed after Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
India has made no secret of its willingness to buy Russian oil in spite of the Ukraine war, maintaining good ties with Moscow while it has also courted closer defence and trade partnerships with Western nations.
India became the world’s leading importer of Russian crude oil last year, according to Kpler market data analysed by The Independent, importing an average 1.75 million barrels per day at a 140 per cent increase on 2022.
At the same time, the European Union’s import of refined products from India soared by 115 per cent, from 111,000 barrels per day in 2022 to 231,800 barrels per day in 2023, the highest figures in the past seven years analysed by Kpler and most likely the highest ever.
“It has worked two-fold - India has been able to buy cheap oil for its refineries, then it has been able to refine that oil and sell the refined products at full price, and into a market (Europe) that is willing to pay up for them because it desperately needs to replace the loss of Russian material that it has applied sanctions on,” Kpler’s lead analyst Matt Smith, tells The Independent.
MILITARY & TECH
Stunning video shows Bradleys taking on a T-90 and winning!
Dramatic drone footage has emerged of a remarkable duel between two Ukrainian Bradley fighting vehicles and the much-vaunted Russian T-90 tank, with the latter taking a sound beating and left spinning out of control before crashing into a tree.
The US made M-2 Bradley is an infantry fighting vehicle, not a tank, and on paper the Russian T-90 should have been more than a match even for two Bradleys. The Bradley is armed with a 25mm autocannon and TOW anti-tank missiles. Its armour is not designed to stop a round from a main battle tank.
The Russian made T-90 main battle tank is supposedly the most advanced tank in their inventory (not excluding the semi-fictional T-14 Armata that even the Russian army would touch with a 10 foot pole). The T-90 is armed with a 125mm smooth bore autoloaded cannon that could easily slice through the Bradley’s (or even most main battle tank’s) IF it hits them.
Let's take a look at what happened. Drone footage was released on Jan. 12 capturing a dramatic fight between a Russian T-90 and two Ukrainian Bradley IFV’s. The drone was operating in the Avdiivka region and the fight took place in an unspecified village.
The Bradley’s were operated by the 47th Separate Mechanised Brigade, also known as 'Magura', a unit of the regular AFU and also uses Slovenian supplied upgraded T-55 tanks.
The video is approximately 2 ½ minutes long and checking the timestamp appears to have lasted about 12 minutes. The T-90 appears to have been struck by multiple TOW missiles and numerous 25 mm autocannon strikes. It attempts to manoeuvre, first in order to get a clean shot at the closer of the bradleys and later to attempt to take cover from the onslaught coming from multiple directions.
The Bradleys, one constantly on the move, races around the village shooting the T-90 from various angles while a second Bradley sits much farther away sniping with its TOW missiles.
Eventually the T-90, after being struck a number of times, its composite armour burning and its turret either damaged or the gunner knocked out at the controls spins wildly 360 degrees as the tank, its driver also out of commission, careens straight ahead until it strikes a tree large enough to bring it to a stop.
While on paper an “modern” MBT like the T-90 should have had no problem dealing with even two IFV’s, however in this particular case, this is more a testament to Ukraine’s esprit de corps, inherent flaws in russian tank design (mainly the inability to reverse efficiently) And the lack of training, leadership and demoralisation of their conscript army.
That’s it for today’s Draft folks if you would like to keep up with events in Ukraine daily please consider subscribing, its free!
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