UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-07-17
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 60 sources daily, much of which forms the basis of the script. While the Podcast is on hiatus I will make this Draft available here both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 22:00 on July 16 stated that day 874 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.
During the past day, 86 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 46 air strikes, 417 drone strikes and more than 3,000 artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deep into the territory of Ukraine.
Air Force Daily Report
During the past day, July 16, 2024, the air defence of southern Ukraine destroyed 4 reconnaissance drones, including three "Orlan-10" and one "ZALA".
During the day, the Russian occupying forces attacked Kherson region with a ballistic missile, probably "Iskander-M", and late in the evening - Odesa region. The launches were carried out from the territory of the temporarily occupied Crimea.
Also, the enemy once again carried out an air strike on the Kherson region, using anti-aircraft missiles.
ISW: Ukraine continue targeting Russian air defence systems to set conditions to field F-16s
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its July 16 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment assessed that Ukrainian forces continue targeting Russian air defence systems in occupied Ukraine and in Russia’s border areas to set conditions to field F-16 fighter jets following their anticipated Summer-Fall 2024 arrival to Ukraine.
Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi reported on July 16 that Ukrainian forces struck an S-300 position in occupied Donetsk Oblast and that Ukrainian forces have destroyed 20 S-300 launchers and 15 radar stations total in an unspecified time period.
Syrskyi published geolocated footage showing Ukrainian forces using cluster munitions to strike Russian air defence systems located east of occupied Manhush, Donetsk Oblast (west of Mariupol).
The Council of Deputies of Krasninskoye, Volgograd Oblast also claimed on July 15 that the commander of a Russian S-300 battery originally from the area was killed in a Ukrainian ATACMS strike against a S-300 position in the Kharkiv direction at 1300 local time on July 12. The Russian S-300 commander more likely died in a Ukrainian strike against occupied Mariupol, as the commander's reported time of death is within 15 minutes of a reported strike against a Russian S-300 system near Mariupol on July 12.
Syrskyi stated on July 16 that Ukrainian forces were systematically destroying Russia's air defence capabilities to set conditions for Ukraine's successful use of strike aircraft and noted that F-16s are arriving "soon."
Founder of the Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (HUR) "Kraken" Regiment Kostyantyn Nemichev stated on July 12 that Ukrainian forces destroyed four Russian S-300 systems that Russian forces used to strike Kharkiv City within an unspecified period of time.
The Council of Deputies of Krasninskoye, Volgograd Oblast claimed that the Russian S-300 battery commander killed on July 12 had noted in a recent letter that Ukrainian strikes against Russian air defence assets had killed two Russian battery commanders, likely air defence batteries, in the past two weeks (likely referring to some time in June-early July 2024)
The F-16 deliveries to Ukraine will likely begin in small numbers, and materiel and training constraints will likely prevent Ukrainian forces from leveraging fixed-wing airpower at scale in 2024, as ISW has previously noted. Ukrainian officials have previously indicated that Ukrainian forces also intend to use F-16s and other fixed-wing aircraft as part of Ukraine's broader air defence umbrella. However, as ISW previously noted, Ukraine will need to attrit Russia's overall air defence capabilities to safeguard F-16s and properly integrate them into Ukraine's combat operations.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kharkiv axis: The enemy conducted 5 assault actions supported by aviation, in the areas of Hlyboke and Vovchansk.
Kupyansk axis: The enemy tried to advance 9 times against Ukrainian positions near Synkivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Pishchane and Berestove. The situation is under control.
Lyman axis: The enemy tried to advance 6 times against Ukrainian positions near Nevske and Makiivka . The situation is under control.
Siversk axis: Russian forces carried out 8 assaults in the vicinity of Verkhnokamianske, Sprine, Rozdolivka and Pereizne. One battle continues, the situation is under control.
Kramatorsk axis: In the Chasiv Yar district there are currently two battles occurring near Klischiivka.
Toretsk axis: In this district, Russia has attacked 7 times near Pivnichne, Toretsk and Nui-York.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk axis: The greatest activity over the past day was in this sector. The enemy conducted 19 attacks against Ukrainian defences in this area over the last day in the vicinity of Kalynove, Vozdvizhenka, Novooleksandrívka, Lozuvatske, Prohes and Novoselivka Persha
Kurakhove axis: The enemy 17 times unsuccessfully attacked our positions near Krasnohorivka, Heorgievka, Paraskovievka and Kostiantynivka.
Vremivka axis: The Russians conducted 2 offensive actions near Vodiane.
Orikhiv axis: The situation has not experienced significant changes.
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Prydniprovsk axis: The situation has not experienced significant changes.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing to report.
THE HOME FRONT
95 Ukrainian soldiers brought back from Russian captivity
Ukraine has brought 95 of its defenders back from Russian captivity President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated on social media.
"We keep bringing our people back home. 95 more defenders were liberated from the Russian captivity. These are the soldiers from the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the National Guard of Ukraine and the State Border Guard of Ukraine.
I’m grateful to our team which carried out the prisoners of war swaps, and the United Arab Emirates for being a mediator in this liberation. Even though it’s extremely hard, we’re looking for everybody who could be in captivity. We must bring back everyone."
The Coordination Staff specified that among the liberated Ukrainians there are 49 soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (including a soldier who agreed to fly to the Azovstal plant in the city of Mariupol voluntarily in order to help the Ukrainian units that were blocked there, and two members of the Ukrainian Air Force), 21 members of the National Guard of Ukraine, 10 navy sailors, seven members of the Territorial Defence Forces, five border guards, two members of the State Special Transport Service of Ukraine and one defender from a volunteer formation of a territorial community.
Russia strikes fields with FPV drones to burn crops of Ukrainian farmers
In southern Ukraine, farmers are losing dozens of hectares of crops as a result of arson attacks by the Russian army. Denys Marchuk, Deputy Chairman of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council, stated at a briefing.
With the start of the harvest season, the Russian army began to deliberately strike Ukrainian fields with FPV drones to burn the crops.
"In Kherson Oblast, there are a lot of cases when Russians launch FPV drones to deliberately burn crops. And people who have cleared their land of mines, small areas of 100, 200, 400 hectares, lose 20, 30 hectares at a time. This is a huge amount of money because it is borrowed money, and they wanted to pay back the loans and plan their business life accordingly," Marchuk said.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Nothing to report.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
European Parliament adopts resolution in support of Ukraine, condemns Orbán's "peacemaking" actions
The European Parliament has adopted a resolution in support of Ukraine by a majority vote at a plenary session on Wednesday, 17 July. In particular, the resolution condemns the uncoordinated foreign policy actions of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Ukrainska Pravda reported.
The resolution, which was supported by 495 MEPs out of 679 who voted, reaffirms support for "Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity within its internationally recognised borders".
It condemns the recent visit of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán to Russia, "which does not represent the EU and is a blatant violation of the EU’s treaties and common foreign policy".
The majority of the European Parliament condemned Hungary's abuse of its presidency of the EU Council and called on it to lift its blockade of funding for Ukraine from the European Peace Fund.
The resolution calls for continued military, financial and other assistance to Ukraine, support for Ukraine's accession to the European Union, and the use of frozen Russian assets. It also condemns the Russian attack on the Okhmatdyt children's hospital and Russia's hybrid attacks against the EU.
It should be noted that the resolution in support of Ukraine was the first document adopted by the European Parliament after the June elections. An earlier proposal by the Patriots for Europe group to condemn the attempted assassination of Donald Trump was rejected.
German government halves support for Ukraine in 2025
The German government has approved the draft budget for 2025,which includes measures to stimulate the economy, and is submitting it to the Bundestag, the lower house of the German parliament, after lengthy debate. Ukrainska Pravda reported.
Planned expenditures subject to the maximum expenditure threshold amount to €480.6 billion. However, new debts of more than €94 billion are still planned for 2024-2025. New loans in 2025 will amount to €43.8 billion. Planned expenditures to support Ukraine were halved. Military aid to Ukraine is to make up to €4 billion, compared to almost €8 billion in the 2024 budget.
The Bundestag will start considering the draft in September and is expected to approve the supplementary budget for 2024 on 8 November and the budget for 2025 on 29 November. They may be amended until then.
Poland announces new military operation along Belarusian border
An operation called "Safe Podlasie" (Bezpieczne Podlasie) will commence at the border with Belarus in Poland on 1 August, involving approximately 17,000 military personnel (Podlasie, Poland's eastern region, shares a border with Belarus – ed.). Polish Defence Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz stated as reported by RMF24.
During a press conference with the Polish Minister of Interior, Tomasz Siemoniak, Kosiniak-Kamysz assessed that the decision to establish a buffer zone on the border with Belarus has had a positive effect – the number of attempts to cross the border and actual crossings has decreased.
The Defence Minister added that police officers, including those who participated in UN missions in Kosovo, were deployed to train soldiers at the border.
Kosiniak-Kamysz also stated that anyone who harms Polish soldiers or officers defending the Polish border will be held accountable.
Ukraine's sanctions on Russia's Lukoil halting oil deliveries to Hungary
Ukraine's hardened sanctions against Lukoil, Russia's second-largest oil producer, has stopped the company's deliveries to Hungary, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto claimed on July 16. Bloomberg reports.
Ukraine strengthened sanctions against Lukoil in June 2024, effectively removing the possibility that Ukraine can be a transit country for its oil.
Szijjarto made the comments after meeting with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov on the sidelines of a U.N. meeting in New York.
"There's now a legal situation in Ukraine based on which Lukoil is not currently delivering to Hungary," Szijjarto claimed, according to Bloomberg. "We are now working on a legal solution that will enable us to resume supplies because Russian oil is important from the perspective of our energy security,"
Hungary has maintained close ties with Russia since the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, and Szijjarto has made regular trips to Russia, unlike other European foreign ministers.
Romania Denies That Its F-16s Perform Missions Over Ukraine's Odesa Region
Anonymous russian sources claimed F-16 fighters already perform missions in Ukraine taking off Romanian air bases. This is not the first time russia has spread misinformation regarding the F-16s in the Ukrainian war.
Last week, russian media were actively sharing the message that allegedly there were four F-16 fighter jets observed flying in the skies over the city of Odesa in Ukraine, for about a week since the first recorded instance. Moreover, as claimed, the F-16s took off airfields on Romanian territory.
In response, the Ministry of National Defense of Romania denies the allegations, stating that "it is as clear as possible that the imaginary sources of russian propaganda transmit false information," News.ro quotes the defence ministry as saying.
MILITARY & TECH
Greece MAY transfer 32 F-16s to Ukraine
Greece is about to decommission 32 older F-16 Block-30 fighter jets Al Jazeera reports that discussions are underway that may see these aircraft transferred to Ukraine.
“The Russians are very annoyed with the Greeks,” Konstantinos Filis, a professor of international relations who directs the Institute of Global Affairs at the American College of Greece, told Al Jazeera. “Greece has supported Ukraine very clearly from the beginning.”
According to Dianeosis, an Athens-based think tank, about 70 percent of Greeks had a favourable view of Russia before the full-blown war in Ukraine. That fell to 50 percent after the 2022 invasion and to 30 percent last year.
Officially, Greece has supplied Ukraine with an additional 20,000 155mm artillery shells, Stinger missiles and 40 Soviet-era BMP-1 armoured personnel carriers. It is currently preparing to send four massive transformers that convert high-voltage DC current produced by power stations to the lower AC voltage used on local distribution grids that supply households.
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