UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2023-12-15
Slava Ukraini! For the past six months I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 40 sources daily much of which ends up in the Ukraine War Written Brief. While this is going through a period of transition I will make this Draft available here for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group is responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine.
Nothing to report.
The Tavria operational-strategic group is responsible for the Avdiivka, Mar’inka, Shaktars’ke, and Zaporizhzhia axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.
UK Intelligence – Russian breakthrough in Marinka sector highly unlikely
The UK Ministry of Defence Dec 15 intelligence update stated that Heavy fighting continues for control of the destroyed town of Marinka and its surrounding areas in south-eastern Ukraine. Russia has likely further reduced the small pockets of Ukrainian controlled territory remaining within the town boundary.
One of Russia’s operational objectives in the area is likely to secure the 00510 and N15 highways to eventually advance further west towards the town of Kurakhove.
Despite its incremental advances, a major, operationally significant Russian breakthrough in this sector remains highly unlikely.
The Odesa operational-strategic group is responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea
Nothing to report.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Ukraine dismantles hi-tech contraband ring that used drones for smuggling cigarettes and monitoring border patrols
Ukraine’s Border Guard Service (DPSU) reports that a group of northwestern Ukrainian smugglers have adopted drones for contraband transportation and border monitoring, signifying a substantial shift in their strategies. A joint task force, including military personnel and special forces, seized drones, counterfeit tobacco, and production equipment.
The smuggler ring was busted by a joint task force, including Volyn and Lviv border guards supported by the Border Guard’s Dozor special task force. The report does not explicitly state that the smugglers were detained but implies it.
In suspects’ homes and outbuildings, the law enforcers reportedly found a hang glider, eight unmanned aerial vehicles of both aeroplane and quadcopter types, more than 2,000 packs of counterfeit tobacco products, and “draft records with evidence of illegal activity.”
Moreover, the border guards say they have discovered an entire production facility for drones, equipped with a line of 3D printers used to manufacture drone components.
Ukraine downs one of three Russian Kinzhal missiles targeting airfield with Storm Shadow carriers
Ukraine’s Air Force reported on 14 December 2023, Russia launched a missile attack on Ukraine with Kh-47M2 Kinzhal hypersonic air-launched ballistic missiles. As in two previous cases, the touted Russian missile was headed for the strategic Starokostiantyniv airfield, which hosts aircraft used to launch Stormshadow and SCALP long-range missiles that allow Ukraine to destroy Russian headquarters and arsenals hundreds of kilometres away.
Air defence forces destroyed one missile in Kyiv Oblast, It took only 10 minutes from the air alert announcement to the arrival of the missiles in central Ukraine. The Air Force emphasised that it would not comment on the consequences of the missile strike in Khmelnytskyi Oblast.
Local official detonates grenades in government building, 1 dead, 26 wounded
Police report a village council member detonated at least two grenades inside a crowded room in a local government building in the western Zakarpattia Oblast on Dec. 15, Ukraine's National Police said.
According to the preliminary information, at least one person was killed and 26 were wounded, including six in serious condition. It is not clear whether the official who detonated the grenades was wounded or killed.
Police released a video showing a man walking into a crowded room, which they identified as a local government building in the village of Keretsky, Zakarpattia Oblast.
He then pulls out two grenades, removes their pins, and drops them on the floor. Explosions and screaming follow, and the screen is filled with smoke. The incident is being investigated as a potential terror attack, the police said.
Allegedly the perpetrator got into an argument with his coworkers about an issue, who refused to take his side. After the dispute, Zakarpattia24 said he left and returned with the grenades.
THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION / OCCUPIED BELARUS
Russia plans to buy aircraft parts from a number of countries in Africa and Asia, bypassing sanctions.
RBC, a Russian propaganda outlet, with reference to a letter from the deputy head of Rosaviatsia (Russia's Federal Air Transport Agency), cited by two sources in the aviation industry reported that Russia plans to buy aircraft parts from a number of countries in Africa and Asia, where it is possible to do so while bypassing sanctions.
The Association of Air Transport Operators, which includes the largest Russian airlines, proposed to Rosaviatsia to include Indonesia, Ethiopia, Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, Malaysia and Pakistan in the list of countries from which aircraft components can be purchased.
Earlier, the list of "approved" states included Iran, Egypt, Uzbekistan, Israel, Mexico, Türkiye, India, Brazil, China, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, Jordan, Thailand, Aruba and South Africa.
Prior to the sanctions, only the so-called airworthiness certificates of the US, EU, Canada, Bermuda and Ireland were recognised in Russia.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
Zelenskyy visits command of the US Army Europe
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, on Dec. 14 visited the command of the US Army Europe and Africa in Wiesbaden, Germany, following his visit to Norway.
The Ukrainian leader met with Commander of the US European Command and Supreme Allied Commander Europe General Christopher Cavoli, Commander of the US Army Europe and Africa General Darryl Williams, Commander of the Security Assistance Group – Ukraine Lieutenant General Antonio Aguto.
Zelenskyy and the commanders discussed the work of the Security Assistance Group – Ukraine and the logistics of weapons supply, repair, and maintenance, according to the President’s Office.The president also met with the Ukrainian military personnel stationed in Wiesbaden, where Ukrainian soldiers receive military training.
UK escalates sanctions against Russia, targeting metal and diamond imports
On 14 December, the UK government announced a comprehensive package of sanctions aimed at further crippling Russia’s ability to wage war against Ukraine. This move follows the “most severe sanctions ever imposed on a major economy” in response to Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine. The UK witnessed a significant drop in trade with Russia, with imports decreasing by 94% and exports by 74% in the year following the invasion.
This latest set of sanctions is designed to ban the export of goods that could potentially be used for military or industrial purposes in Russia. This includes various machine parts and electronics recently identified on Ukrainian battlefields. The UK government emphasises that, given the already low levels of trade with Russia, the new sanctions will continue to deprive Russia of critical products for its war efforts. Only exports deemed low-risk and those necessary for humanitarian, food, and health purposes will remain unsanctioned.
The legislation also targets products that raise revenue to fund Putin’s war machine. It bans the import of certain Russian metals, as announced by G7 leaders in May. Furthermore, the UK government is introducing separate legislation to ban the import of diamonds from Russia and plans to proceed with a prohibition on ancillary services relating to metals when this can be done in concert with international partners.
Orbán vetoes EU’s €50 bn Ukraine aid after EU open door to Ukraine’s membership
The EU’s attempt to secure a crucial €50 billion financial aid package for Ukraine faced a setback as Hungary’s Prime Minister, Viktor Orbán, vetoed the proposal overnight into 15 December, raising questions about Europe’s continued support for Kyiv. The New York Times reported.
Charles Michel, the President of the European Council, announced that nearly all but one of the EU’s 27 member states endorsed the €50 billion (approximately $52 billion) financial support package for Ukraine, with only Hungary in opposition. The EU leaders were locked in negotiations over the package until early this morning.
Michel stated that EU leaders would reconvene early the following month to discuss the financing further and make another attempt at achieving unanimous agreement, a prerequisite for the plan’s approval.
The leaders explore potential avenues for providing financial assistance to Kyiv, even if it means circumventing Orbán’s input.
The breakdown of negotiations regarding the funding, deemed vital for Ukraine’s financial stability through 2024, comes after numerous unsuccessful attempts by the US Congress to reach an agreement on a $60 billion aid package put forth by the White House, which, CNN notes, has raised fears of weakening Western resolve to sustain the country as it continues to battle against Russia.
Japan expands sanctions over Russia's invasion of Ukraine
Japan announced expanded sanctions on Friday over Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, revealing dozens of newly sanctioned firms and other organisations, including export bans against some outside Russia and its ally Belarus.
Tokyo added to its sanctions list 57 organisations in Russia and six others in countries including the United Arab Emirates, Armenia, Syria and Uzbekistan, the trade ministry said in a statement.
With the additions, Japan has now imposed an export ban on 494 Russian organisations, 27 Belarusian entities and six more in other countries.
US State Department — Putin can't "outlast the West" and Congress must prove it
The US Department of State has declared that Russian President Vladimir Putin will not be able to "outlast" the US or the West, adding that the US Congress must now prove that Putin's bet was "wrong" according to State Dept. spokesman Matthew Miller.
"Vladimir Putin’s bet was that he could outlast the West and that the West would weaken, the West would stop supporting Ukraine, and that Russia would still be there ready to fight, and he just had to outlast us. We have said that from the beginning, that that was his assessment.
But I don’t believe that – and I don’t believe that until today he had actually ever come out and said it. And so what I will say is, for the part of this Administration, we have made clear that we believe that bet is wrong and we believe that he will not outlast the West and he will not outlast the United States of America. And now it’s up to the United States Congress to prove that that bet is wrong."
Matthew Miller, US State Department spokesman
Russia stripped of its Danube Commission membership over attacks on Lower Danube in Ukraine
Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has announced that the Danube Commission has decided to revoke Russia’s membership rights because of its missile and drone strikes on the Lower Danube in Ukraine.
The Commission made this decision at its 100th anniversary meeting under Ukraine’s presidency. Russia must withdraw from the organisation by 29 February 2024. If it does not, the Commission’s members will not recognise their obligations to the Russian Federation under the Belgrade Convention regarding the Regime of Navigation on the Danube.
This decision is a response to the violation of the principles of free and safe navigation on the Danube.
Former FBI agent sentenced to 4 years in prison for helping Russian oligarchs evade sanctions
A federal judge in Manhattan sentenced a former top F.B.I. agent to more than four years in prison on Thursday for conspiring to launder money and violate U.S. sanctions intended to punish a Russian oligarch with ties to President Vladimir V. Putin the New York Times reports.
The agent, Charles F. McGonigal, had served as chief of counterintelligence for the Federal Bureau of Investigation in New York, a crucial and sensitive position inside the American intelligence community, before retiring in 2018.
In Jan. 2023 McGonigal’s was arrested by federal agents and two indictments were unsealed in New York and Washington, D.C., charging him with taking money from some of the very same types of people whom he had been assigned to monitor, according to prosecutors.
Both indictments have since resulted in guilty pleas, making Mr. McGonigal one of the highest-ranking F.B.I. officials ever to be convicted of a crime.
MILITARY & TECH
Russia creates marine drone similar to Ukrainian SeaBaby
The news, published by Russian media, reported that Russian company KMZ has introduced a naval drone “Power ”, which is made according to a structure similar to Ukrainian drones.
The Russian Kingisepp Machine-Building Plant KMZ (St. Petersburg), which specializes in the production of boats for Russian power structures and sea drones, introduced the BBKN strike drone “Devancer”.
The drone was ordered by the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation in the number of ten boards for testing. The latter are reportedly to take place directly in the combat zone against Ukraine.
Constructively very similar to Ukrainian models, the Russian drone still has a number of key differences, which may indicate completely different challenges that will be set for it.
Interestingly there are no visible communication antennas or optical surveillance and guidance devices on the drone hull.
That’s it for today’s Draft folks if you would like to keep up with events in Ukraine daily please consider subscribing.
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