UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-01-13
Slava Ukraini! Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 40 sources daily much of which ends up in the script. I will make this Draft available here for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its situation update at 06:00 on Jan. 13 stated that it was the 689th day of large-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
During the past day, 89 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 7 missiles and 65 air strikes, carried out 44 MLRS attacks on the positions of our troops and settlements. As a result of the Russian terrorist attacks, unfortunately, there are dead and wounded among the civilian population. Destruction and damage to residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure.
Russia’s massive casualties overwhelm medical facilities
Russian occupation forces continue to suffer significant losses in personnel deployed in eastern Ukraine. From the period from Jan. 6 to 10 of this year, hospitals and medical institutions of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation massively received personnel participating in battles in the temporarily occupied Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts. In the settlements of Chernianka, Valuyka and Rovenka of Belgorod region from temporarily occupied Luhansk arrived more than 300 occupants with serious injuries, in Belgorod - almost 250 Russian military with extremely serious injuries, and to Moscow and Kaliningrad were sent about 150 Russian soldiers who cannot be helped in frontline hospitals due to the absence of qualified doctors. Field hospitals of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation are overcrowded and fail to cope with the number of injured soldiers, who after meat attacks arrive in large numbers every day.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group is responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine.
Kup’yans’k axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 9 enemy attacks in the vicinity of Syn’kivka and Petropavlivka (Kharkiv oblast).
Lyman axis: the Ukrainian defenders repelled 6 attacks of the occupiers near Makiivka (Luhansk oblast) and Hryhorivka (Donetsk oblast).
Bakhmut axis: the Ukrainian soldiers repelled 5 attacks near Klishchiivka and Andriivka (Donetsk oblast).
The Tavria operational-strategic group is responsible for the Avdiivka, Mar’inka, Shaktars’ke, and Zaporizhzhia axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.
Avdiivka axis: the Ukrainian defenders continue to hold back the enemy who keeps trying to encircle Avdiivka. AFU soldiers are standing their ground and inflicting major losses on the invaders. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 4 enemy attacks near Avdiivka, and 17attacks near Pervomais’ke and Nevel’s’ke (Donetsk oblast).
Mar’inka axis: the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the occupiers in the vicinities of Heorhiivka, Mar’inka, and Novomykhailivka (Donetsk oblast). Troops repelled 13 attacks in that area.
Shakhtarske axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 4 attacks south of Zolota Nyva and west of Staromaiorske (Donetsk oblast).
Zaporizhzhia axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 3 attacks of the adversary near Robotyne and west of Verbove, (Zaporizhzhia oblast).
The Odesa operational-strategic group is responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea
Kherson axis: the Ukrainian defenders continue to expand the bridgehead. Despite significant losses, the enemy does not abandon its attempts to dislodge Ukrainian troops from their positions. On Jan. 12, the adversary made 9 unsuccessful assaults on the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Another massive Russian Missile attack and strengthening Ukrainian EW
On the night of January 13, 2024, Defence Express reports Ukraine experienced a missile strike orchestrated by the russians, employing a diverse array of air attack assets such as cruise, aeroballistic, ballistic, aviation, surface-to-air guided missiles and UAVs.
A total of 40 air attack means were detected:
7 S-300/S-400 surface-to-air guided missiles from Belgorod region, russia;
3 Shahed-136/UAVs from Kursk region, russia;
6 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles launched from 6 MiG-31K aircraft stationed in Tambov, russia;
Up to 12 Kh-101/Kh-555/Kh-55 cruise missiles launched from 11 Tu-95MS strategic bombers with launch areas in the Caspian Sea;
6 Kh-22 cruise missiles launched from Tu-22M3 bombers in Bryansk region, russia;
2 Kh-31P guided aviation missiles launched from 2 Su-35 aircraft in the temporarily occupied Kherson region;
4 Kh-59 guided aviation missiles launched from 2 Su-34 aircraft with a launch area in Bryansk region, russia.
Through collaborative efforts of the Air Force and the air defense units, the following results were achieved:
Destruction of 7 Kh-101/Kh-555/Kh-55 cruise missiles;
Elimination of 1 Kh-59 guided aviation missile.
According to the Ukrainian Air Force, more than 20 of the aforementioned air attack assets, not included in the tally of shot down missiles, failed to reach their intended targets due to effective counteraction by electronic warfare means.
Moreover, the performance of russian missiles has been increasingly unreliable, with their trajectories becoming unpredictable. Despite these issues, the persistent threat they pose should not be underestimated.
THE RUSSIAN WORLD
Russia’s outlandish claims
Defence Express recently took a look at some of the claims made by the Russian Ministry of Defence that portray a continued trend of embellishments and unbelievable claims. In its most recent weekly report they went above and beyond.
According to the most recent report they shot down two ADM-160 MALD “air-guided” missiles. It’s noteworthy that the ADM-160 MALD is not a conventional guided missile; it functions as a decoy. Its primary purpose is to draw attention and, in its latest versions, relay information about the adversary’s air defense systems. Specifically designed for this role, the ADM-160 MALD can mimic various aircraft on radar screens, ranging from B-52 strategic aircraft to stealth fighters. It is designed to be shot down.
Beyond the MALD inaccuracy, the overall figures presented by the MoD regarding downed Ukrainian aircraft and weaponry raise serious questions about their validity. Claiming to have destroyed eight times the entire 2021 Ukrainian Air Force inventory, and exceeding half the size of the U.S. Air Force fleet, appears statistically improbable if not entirely impossible.
These exaggerated claims suggest a deliberate attempt by the MoD to construct a narrative of dominance in the ongoing war, regardless of factual accuracy.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
Britain's Sunak, in Ukraine, announces increase in military aid
British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak visited wartime Kyiv on Friday to sign a new security agreement and announce an increase in military funding for Ukraine to buy drones, including surveillance, long-range strike and sea drones. Reuters reports.
Britain, one of Ukraine's closest allies during President Vladimir Putin's Russian invasion, will increase its support in the next financial year to 2.5 billion pounds ($3.19 billion), an increase of 200 million pounds on the previous two years, Sunak said.
"Our opponents around the world believe that we have neither the patience nor resources for long wars. So waver now, and we embolden not just Putin, but his allies in North Korea, Iran and elsewhere,"
— Rishi Sunak, Prime Minister of the UK
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy told the press conference he felt vital U.S. financial assistance would also materialise and that he felt more positive now than last month.
The two leaders signed what Zelenskiy described as an "unprecedented security agreement" - an arrangement the Ukrainian leader said would remain in place until Kyiv joined the NATO military alliance.
In his nightly video address, the president praised the agreement as a "very serious and modern accord" providing help with weapons, intelligence, and cyber know-how, as well as sanctions and other punitive actions against Russia.
It was, he suggested, similar to Israel's longstanding relations with the United States.
Polish Prime Minister Tusk stands firm against anti-Ukrainian sentiments in government
There should be no doubts worldwide about the support for Ukraine in its resistance to Russian aggression, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated in an interview
As Tusk revealed, the Polish party Law and Justice in the previous government "tried to play on anti-Ukrainian notes" in the last months of the election campaign. However, personally, the Prime Minister will not allow anyone in his government to build their position on anti-Ukrainian sentiments.
"Because when it comes to the war and our support, like the entire Western world, for Ukraine in its resistance to Russia, there can be no doubts. Ukraine in the war with Russia needs help from us and the entire world. Because, in fact, as long as Ukraine is fighting with Russia, we are relatively safe.
Europe must respond to this challenge and invest more money to buy weapons and increase Europe's defense capabilities. We cannot pretend that nothing is happening. In matters like arming and supporting Ukraine in the war, there can be no hesitation. For me, this is an undeniable fact,"
— Donald Tusk, Prime Minister of Poland
MILITARY & TECH
Russians Demonstrated a FAB-1500 Bomb With a UMPK, Manufactured on Machine Tools from China and Japan
The russian JSC Tactical Missiles Corporation has developed a FAB-1500 bomb with a UMPK (Unified Gliding and Correction Module) bomb kit. Defence Express reports. In early September 2023, it became known about the first attempts to use them on the battlefield, but now there is also a video from the production.
The manufactured FAB-1500 guided bomb is equipped with a new version of the UMPK kit, designed to enhance both range and guidance accuracy based on satellite coordinates. Furthermore, the FAB-1500 bomb has been redesigned with an improved aerodynamic profile.
Interestingly, one of the frames captured the brands of machines used in Russia for the production of this weaponry. In the background, the trademark of the machine, Hision from the Chinese company Haitian Precision, is visible.
But in addition to the Chinese machine tool in this frame, the Japanese Multus machine from Okuma company is also recorded. It is unknown whether it was purchased after the withdrawal of Japanese companies from russia.
Ukrainian army and Airforce have a slight disagreement on what aircraft should be a priority
On Friday Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrskyi, the commander of Ukrainian Ground Forces, said that Ukraine needs more military strike aircraft for combat operations, such as American A-10 attack aircraft, to support infantry.
Colonel Yurii Ihnat, Spokesperson for the Ukrainian Air Force when asked for a response to this stated that The priority for the aviation of Ukraine's Air Force remains obtaining F-16 multi-role fighters from Western partners to gain air superiority, after which, in the future, options for attack aircraft and attack helicopters can be considered to support ground troops directly.
"The position of the Air Force regarding the receiving of Western aircraft remains: the priority is F-16s, which our pilots are currently training on. There may be different modifications, but [these are] exactly multi-purpose aircraft capable of operating on air, ground and surface targets. Therefore, the F-16 is multifunctional and can perform a number of these functions with a wide range of weapons."
— Yurii Ihnat, Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson
He further noted that the A-10 aircraft, on which the commander of the Ground Forces previously commented, performs a single function: it can provide fire support for ground troops, delivering powerful strikes on enemy positions on the ground. He stressed the A-10 aircraft is much more expensive to maintain than the F-16.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine employ Soviet-made ground attack aircraft – these are Su-25s, which provide close air support together with helicopters of the army aviation and the Air Force (Mi-24s, Mi-8s). In addition, there are two types of MiG-29 fighters, Su-27s, Su-24M frontline bombers, and transport aviation.
In conditions when the enemy has a lot of air defence equipment on the contact line and enjoys air superiority, in particular in the occupied territories, where powerful Russian Su-35 aircraft systems threaten Ukrainian aircraft, the use of close support aircraft is significantly limited, the officer explains.
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