UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-05-21
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 60 sources daily, much of which forms the basis of the script. While the Podcast is on hiatus I will make this Draft available here both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 23:00 on May 20 stated that day 818 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.
During the past day, 95 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 5 missile strikes, 39 air strikes, 309 drone strikes and 2910 shellings across the positions of our troops.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deep into the territory of Ukraine.
Defense Forces execute effective fire orders in order to regain the initiative on the battlefield and exhaust the offensive potential of the enemy. Control points, anti-aircraft and artillery systems, an ammunition warehouse and three other important enemy objects have been shelled by rocket troops and artillery forces.
Air Force Daily Report
On the night of May 21, 2024, the enemy attacked with 29 strike UAVs of the Shahed-131/136 type from three directions: Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Kursk - Russian Federation, Cape Chauda - Qirim.
The enemy's air attack was repelled by mobile fire groups of the Defense Forces of Ukraine, anti-aircraft missile units of the Air Force and Ground Forces, fighter aircraft and electronic warfare units were also involved.
As a result of anti-aircraft combat, 28 "Shahed" UAVs were shot down in Odesa, Mykolaiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Cherkasy, Kherson and Kirovohrad regions.
Russian Casualty Anaysis
We here at The People’s Media have been keeping a tally of Russian casualties since we began this project 11 months ago. Russia began its latest offensive on May 10, hoping to achieve a breakthrough before vital ammunition held up by congress for the previous seven months reached Ukrainian defenders.
This strategy has been a failure as the west raced to supply the AFU’s needs. The result is that Russian casualties have been on average @ 30% higher than they were prior to the latest offensive.
In the past 10 days of the offensive Russia has reportedly suffered 15,350 casualties, lost 172 tanks, 386 APVs, 392 artillery systems, 15 MLRS, 14 air defence systems and 5 aircraft
The Economist: Russia had planned to encircle Kharkiv and repeatedly shell it during renewed offensive
On the morning of 10 May, Russia launched a new offensive in Kharkiv Oblast, effectively opening a new front. Since then, according to the Ukrainian analytical project DeepState, Russian forces have occupied 174 square kilometers of territory in the region.
Retrieved military plans, details of which were shared with The Economist, suggest that Russian troops planned to partially encircle Kharkiv and put pressure on the Ukrainian forces to the east of the Pechenihy reservoir amid their renewed offensive on the region.
Russian forces were halted by the elite 92nd Brigade, which was quickly redeployed to the Kharkiv front. The brigade pushed Russians back 10 km away.
On the Vovchansk axis, further east, the Russian plan was to advance along the reservoir down to the town of Pechenihy. The Russians initially succeeded quickly, moving through an area that should have been fortified with minefields and robust engineering defenses but wasn’t.
Ukraine’s army is also preparing for another strike just east of Vovchansk, towards the village of Bilyi Kolodiaz. Despite having an estimated 48,000 troops ready, experts say these forces are insufficient for a major attack on Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kharkiv axis: The tempo of Russian attacks over the last day has been much lower than in previous days. The enemy made five attempts to break through the defenses of our troops in the areas of Starytsya, Lyptsi and Vovchansk. The situation is under control. Our soldiers in some areas conducted a number of assault operations, measures to strengthen defense resilience are ongoing.
Kupyansk axis: The number of attempts of occupiers to breach Ukrainian defences increased to 13. Fighting is ongoing in the areas of the villages of Synkivka and Stelmakhivka.
Lyman axis: Nothing to report.
Siversk axis: : Since the beginning of the day, tough battles have been going on in this direction. Throughout the day, Russian occupiers have made 3 attempts to break through the defenses of our troops in the area of Bilohorivka ( Luhansk oblast)
Kramatorsk axis: The situation is tense but in control. The enemy suffers losses, throughout the day the enemy made 14 unsuccessful assaults.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk axis: Since the beginning of the day, 25 offensive and assault actions of the enemy have been repelled. Defense forces are regrouping and taking measures to stabilize the situation.
Kurakhove axis: The situation remains tense. The Defense Forces repelled 8 enemy attacks. Three clashes are still ongoing.
Vremika axis: The enemy made 4 failed assaults in the vicinity of Staromaiorske
Orikhiv axis: Nothing to report.
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Prydniprovsk axis: Russian forces continue attempts to push our Ukrainian forces out of their bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnipro River. Ukrainian forces repelled 4 attacks of the enemy in the area of the settlements Oleshky, Pischanivka and Krynky.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Mariupol partisans set Russian warehouse on fire, advisor confirms
Partisans set on fire a warehouse used by Russian forces to store their belongings,In the occupied city of Mariupol said Petro Andriushchenko, the advisor to the city’s mayor. Euromaidan reports.
Russia destroyed and overran Mariupol, a port city on the Azov Sea coast in Donetsk Oblast, home to nearly 500,000 people, early in its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Most Mariupolites did not have a chance to evacuate, and the exact number of civilian casualties, estimated in the tens of thousands, remains unknown to this day.
Even after two years of occupation, Mariupol residents continue waiting for Ukrainian liberation and help the Ukrainian military to eliminate collaborators and Russian soldiers.
According to Andriushchenko, the «Ї» group of the Mariupol resistance movement is responsible for the arson. He said the warehouse was located at the “Evrobud” enterprise, which assisted Russian invaders since the first day of the occupation.
THE HOME FRONT
Zelenskyy addresses the issue of Presidential elections during an interview with Reuters.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine, in an interview with Reuters has stated while assessing his five years in the presidential office that his term has been extended due to martial law.
When asked by the interviewer to assess his own work done within the span of the five years of presidency, Zelenskyy replied: "My five years are not over yet, they continue because of martial law".
"I cannot assess my work. This is not ethical. I think that a view from the side is always more fair and I am not going to argue with this view. The truth is always somewhere in the middle."
Zelenskyy added that he was glad to be the president of a nation that did not turn tail, and accepted the challenges it faced. "I’m proud that I’m the president of Ukraine, this is my attitude towards these five years," he said.
190,000 consumers in Kharkiv Oblast and 101 settlements in Donetsk Oblast left without electricity
Consumers in seven oblasts of Ukraine have been left without electricity because of a Russian attack the Ministry of Energy of Ukraine reported on May 21.
After today’s morning attack, oblast power networks in Kharkiv had been turned off. To prevent technological issues in the city, about 190,000 consumers had been left without electricity; as of now, the power supply has been restored. Due to the fighting, 34,200 metering points remain without electricity.
Over the past 24 hours, Russian attacks have left 3,500 consumers in two settlements without electricity. Power engineers have restored the supply of electricity to 4,600 consumers in six settlements. As of the morning of 21 May, 101 settlements and a total of 47,100 consumers remain without voltage.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Russia accumulates grouping opposite Sumy Oblast to draw Ukrainian soldiers from other fronts
The US think tank The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in its May 20 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment stated that Russian forces are concentrating limited, understaffed, and incohesive forces in the Sumy direction, but even such a Russian grouping of forces will be able to achieve the likely desired effect of drawing and fixing Ukrainian forces in the international border area.
The deputy commander of a Ukrainian brigade operating in northern Kharkiv Oblast reported on May 20 that Russian forces, including Chechen forces, are accumulating in the Sumy direction but that the limited number of Russian personnel suggests that the Russian objective is to draw and fix Ukrainian forces to the international border area.
Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets stated on May 20 that the Russian grouping in Kursk Oblast consists of 9,000–10,000 personnel. Mashovets stated that this grouping consists of up to three under-strength motorised rifle regiments (each lacking one to two battalions); eight motorised rifle, tank, and infantry battalions; and one airborne (VDV) battalion all redeployed from various units, formations, and military districts; and at least two assault detachments at the echelon of a reinforced company or an under-strength battalion. Mashovets also reported on May 5 that an unspecified VDV battalion is part of the Russian grouping in Kursk Oblast. Russian propaganda sources claimed that the Russian 3rd VDV Battalion of the 104th VDV Regiment (76th VDV Division) is in Kursk Oblast.
ISW continues to assess that even limited Russian activity in other areas of the international border below the threshold of Russian offensive operations could have the effect of stretching Ukrainian forces along a wider front and that Russian forces will be able to draw and fix Ukrainian forces to this area as long as Russia threatens penetrations of other border areas beyond northern Kharkiv Oblast.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
EU discards Russian propaganda's claims of Zelenskyy's "illegitimacy"
Peter Stano, spokesperson of the European Commission for Foreign Affairs, at a briefing on May 21, responded on behalf of The European Commission to the claims of Russian propaganda that Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s presidency is illegitimate since his five-year presidential term ends on May 21, 2024. Ukrainska Pravda reports
Stano stated that Ukraine cannot hold free elections because it is under attack by Russian missiles, drones and bombs, and millions of people became displaced persons inside the country and outside its borders.
"It is not possible to organise elections in this situation. Is it possible to have gatherings of people at the polling stations under such circumstances? They would be targeted by (leader of the Kremlin Vladimir) Putin," Stano said.
He stressed that there are no conditions for holding free and fair elections in Ukraine due to Russian aggression, with all the brutal and heinous behaviour of the Russian forces and the political leadership in the Kremlin.
Stano added that under the Constitution of Ukraine, the president of Ukraine exercises their powers until the assumption of the presidential office by a new elected president, and the continuity of power is one of the key principles of the Ukrainian Constitution, and the Ukrainian society and main political parties in Ukraine have absolutely no doubts who their legitimate president is.
"We (the EU) also don’t have any such doubts. It’s President Zelenskyy," Stano concluded.
German initiative to strengthen Ukrainian air defence has raised almost €1 billion
The German Foreign Ministry noted on the occasion of a visit by Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock to Kyiv that a German initiative to strengthen Ukraine's air defence has raised almost a billion euros for this goal.
Baerbock arrived in Ukraine at a crucial moment, as a few days ago, the Russian Federation launched a new offensive on Kharkiv. The Foreign Minister's trip aims to ensure that, despite the deterioration of the situation in the combat zone, Germany and Europe will continue to stand firmly on Ukraine's side and will not stop supporting it.
"In this context, we should also consider the global initiative to strengthen air defence, which the Foreign Minister recently launched with Defence Minister Pistorius. Almost one billion euros have already been raised to provide additional support to Ukrainian air defence," the report says.
The foreign ministry noted that work within the framework of the initiative continues and added that this initiative also protects the security of EU countries from Russian aggression.
"Our support is rooted in the deep conviction that Ukraine will win this war. Putin is speculating that we will eventually run out of steam, but we have staying power. Germany, along with many other countries worldwide, is standing rock-solid by Ukraine's side. The people of Ukraine can count on this in the long term," Baerbock said.
Several states supported the German initiative to search for air defence equipment for Kyiv at the 22nd meeting of the Ukraine Defence Contact Group (Ramstein format) on 20 May.
Nine suspected Russian agents detained in Poland
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk during a broadcast by Polish news channel TVN24 stated that Polish security services have arrested nine people who committed acts of sabotage within the country on the orders of Russian secret services.
"We have now arrested nine suspects who have been charged with direct involvement in acts of sabotage in Poland ordered by Russian secret services. These include beatings, arson and attempted arson." Tusk said.
He stressed that the case is "very serious." Tusk noted that this concerned several European countries, including Poland, Latvia and Estonia, and similar indications had also been observed in Sweden.
Tusk said that Poland was working closely with its allies and neighbouring countries in this matter and was satisfied with the effective work of the security services.
Tusk also said that he would announce the details of a commission to investigate Russian influence on Polish politics in recent years during a government meeting on Tuesday. He added that the commission would not be public but would work intensively behind closed doors.
MILITARY & TECH
Nothing to report.
That’s it for today’s Draft folks if you would like to keep up with events in Ukraine daily please consider subscribing, its free!
Feel free to share this update with your friends. Heroyam Slava!