UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-03-18
Slava Ukraini! Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 40 sources daily much of which ends up in the script. I will make this Draft available here for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its situation update at 06:00 on Mar. 18 stated that it was day 754 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
During the past day, 72 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 14 missile strikes, 75 air strikes, and 95 MLRS attacks across the positions of our troops and settlements. As a result of the Russian attacks, unfortunately, there are dead and wounded among the civilian population. Destruction and damage to residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line.
Ukrainian missile forces struck 3 concentrations of the russian troops.
Air Force Daily Report
The Ukrainian Air Force in its situation update at 06:00 stated that during the previous day it launched air strikes on 6 concentrations of troops, weapons, and military equipment.
The Air Force also stated that Ukrainian Defence Forces had shot down 17 of 22 Shahed-type explosive UAVs launched at Ukraine overnight.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kup’yans’k axis: The enemy carried out 2 assaults in the areas of the settlements of Synkivka (Kharkiv oblast) unsuccessfully trying to improve its tactical position.
Lyman axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 3 attacks near Rozdolivka (Donetsk oblast)
Bakhmut axis: Ukrainian forces repelled 8 attacks near Ivanivske and Klishchiivka (Donetsk oblast)
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the Avdiivka, Novopavlivka, and Orikhiv axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Avdiivka axis: Ukrainian Defence Forces repelled 13 enemy attacks in the vicinities of settlements of Berdychi, Tonen’ke, Pervomais’ke, Orlivka, and Nevel’s’ke (Donetsk oblast).
Novopavlivka axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the enemy in the vicinities of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Pobjeda and Novomykhailivka (Donetsk oblast). The enemy, supported by aviation, made 36 attempts to break through the defence of Ukrainian troops in that area.
Orikhiv axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 7 attacks near Robotyne and northwest of Verbove (Zaporizhzhia oblast).
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Kherson axis: Ukrainian defenders continue to maintain their positions. Over the past day, the enemy carried out 3 unsuccessful assaults on the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces on the left bank of the Dnipro River.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Russian shelling of Kharkiv Oblast destroys emergency medical center
On the morning of 17 March, Russian troops shelled the village of Buhayivka in the Vovchansk district of Kharkiv Oblast, targeting civilian infrastructure.
The attack destroyed an emergency medical centre and damaged ambulances, Oleh Syniehubov, head of Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration, reported.
According to Syniehubov, a 36-year-old paramedic and a 56-year-old ambulance driver were injured in the shelling.
Ukraine downs 17/22 drones as Russian attacks kill at least one civilian and injure six
Ukraine shoots down most of the Russian kamikaze drones as Moscow’s missile, artillery barrages kill one civilian, wound several others.
Overnight on 18 March 2024, Russian troops attacked Ukraine’s Kharkiv Oblast with five S-300/S-400 surface-to-air guided missiles, Sumy Oblast with two Kh-59 guided missiles, and launched 22 Shahed-type explosive UAVs, with Ukrainian forces destroying 17 of the kamikaze drones, according to the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The Air Force says Russians launched the Shaheds from Russia’s Primorsko-Akhtarsk, southeast of Ukraine, which prompted the Ukrainian forces to engage its anti-aircraft missile units of the Air Force and the Army, mobile fire groups of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, and electronic warfare equipment in repelling the air attack.
Ukraine's Defence Intelligence refutes Russians' reports about "downing" Black Hawk helicopter
Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (HUR) has refuted the reports by Russian propagandists about an alleged downing of the Black Hawk helicopter.
Earlier, the Russian Defence Ministry claimed that troops armed with Verba MANPADS had downed the Mi-8 helicopter of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near the settlement of Lukashivka in Sumy Oblast, which was headed to the village of Kozinka in Belgorod Oblast, this was dutifully reported by russian propaganda outlets.
At the same time,a so-called Russian "military correspondent" Yevgeniy Poddubniy reported about the downing of an American helicopter UH-60 (Black Hawk) near Lukashivka.
The statement drew this response from the HUR "All the Black Hawk helicopters of the Defence Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine are in perfect working order; their crews continue performing combat and special missions.”
RUSSIAN WORLD
Drone attack destroyed Russian helicopter in Moldova’s occupied Transnistria
Moldova’s Russian-run Transnistria has reported a drone attack on one of its military units located in the regional capital city of Tiraspol. According to initial reports, the attack resulted in a fire breaking out within the military facility, causing significant “damage” to a Russian-made Mi-8 military helicopter, while photos show it completely destroyed.
The incident was first reported by the Transnistrian [Russian propaganda outlet] TV channel “Pervy Pridnestrovsky,” which disseminated photographs from the scene.
The regions of Gagauzia and Transnistria in Moldova are often seen as potential Russian “Trojan horses” due to their pro-Russian sentiments and Moscow’s influence. Gagauzia is an autonomous republic, while Transnistria is an unrecognised self-proclaimed state with Russian troops deployed on its territory. Moldova has repeatedly requested the withdrawal of these troops, most recently in 2021. As of 2006, up to 1,500 Russian troops were stationed in Transnistria, including peacekeeping and security battalions, a helicopter detachment, and administrative units.
I’m sure that will buff right out…
Russia prioritises protecting the Black Sea Fleet
The Institute for the Study of War in its Mar. 17 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment stated that the The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) signalled that it intends to protect the Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) against Ukrainian strikes and may have replaced the BSF commander as part of this effort.
The Russian MoD reported on March 17 that Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu visited the BSF command post in occupied Sevastopol, Crimea where he received reports about Ukrainian operations and the BSF’s performance.
Shoigu emphasised that the BSF must conduct daily training exercises to repel aerial and unmanned maritime vehicle strikes so that all Russian crews are ready to defend against such strikes.
Shoigu ordered that the BSF install additional weapons, including large-calibre systems and machine guns, on unspecified BSF assets to augment Russian defences.
Shoigu also received a report from Russian Vice Admiral Sergei Pinchuk, whom some Russian sources recently claimed replaced Admiral Viktor Sokolov as BSF commander.
ISW remains unable to confirm this claim, however. A Ukrainian strike campaign has forced the BSF to redeploy the majority of its naval assets away from its main base in Sevastopol to smaller and less capable bases in Novorossiysk and elsewhere, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces Center for Strategic Communications (StratCom) reported that Ukrainian strikes have disabled roughly 33 percent of the BSF’s warships as of early February 2024, including 24 ships and one submarine.
Shoigu’s posturing to protect the BSF sets conditions for Shoigu to either take credit should the BSF become more effective at protecting itself against Ukrainian strikes or blame other commanders should the BSF fail in this effort.
Grumpy here — Newsflash, they’re warships, they are supposed to be able to defend themselves, just as NATO warships are in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, while being attacked by missiles and drones from Houthi rebels. Not cowering in port afraid to leave the harbour.
Below is a score card from Radio Liberty:
WORLD NEWS
Macron vows “concrete decisions” for future Ukraine visit, details his shift from dove to hawk on Russia
In a wide-ranging interview aired on Ukrainian TV on 16 March, French President Emmanuel Macron said he plans to visit Ukraine with concrete proposals, has signalled France’s readiness to go further in supporting Ukraine against Russian aggression, discussed his past contacts with Russian President Vladimir Putin aimed at achieving peace but said Russia’s invasion of Ukraine marked a turning point, necessitating a shift in France’s position.
Macron says Russia should not win in Ukraine, is ready to respond to escalation, will provide Ukraine with a clear outline of forthcoming military assistance to bolster its defences, and distinguishes between the Russian regime and its people when considering the future.
Macron noted regarding his plans to visit Ukraine that his future visit “should be as useful as possible for Ukraine,” noting that first Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy came to Paris to sign a security agreement, then Macron organised a security conference with European leaders on 26 February, then he went to meet with German leader Olaf Sholz and Polish PM Donald Tusk to discuss the allocation of “additional funds within the framework of the EU-level solidarity mechanism”
“And that is why I will be able to come to Ukraine with concrete proposals, with concrete decisions, and when I physically come, it will mean that this will be a strong message and new directions of cooperation in the direction that we have outlined at the beginning of the year,” Macron added.
“That is why this new European impetus was needed to accelerate assistance and do things differently. And if the enemy says that they have no limits, why should we say that we have these limits? We have a goal that Russia should not and cannot win this war. And that’s why we will continue to stand side by side with Ukraine, because there will be no peace in Europe if Ukraine has to capitulate. This means that this is our goal,” the French President said.
Zelenskyy - Limited range of our army's strikes is due to shortsightedness of our partners
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a remarkably frank rebuke during his evening video address has said that in the context of the war in Ukraine, the short range of strikes landed by Ukraine's Defence Forces is due to"the obvious short-sightedness of some partners".
Zelenskyy thanked Ukraine's partners who provided or approved support packages this week.
"Canada – I am grateful for joining our drone coalition. This is a weapon that has proven to be extremely effective. And in such difficult war conditions, the short range of our army's capabilities is an obvious short-sightedness of some partners."
"The United States – thank you for the aid package. It is very important that stability is restored in providing support for our defence. Right now, it is our defence in this war that is determining whether Putin will succeed in expanding the zone of ruins in Europe and in the world. Stopping him now is in everyone's best interest," the President said.
He also thanked Denmark for another defence aid package and Germany for "weekly steps to support our country and people", as well as all the countries that joined the Czech initiative to purchase munitions for Ukraine. Zelenskyy also praised Greece for its "clear understanding of the threats facing everyone in Europe".
"I would also like to recognize French leadership in Europe today – we appreciate the way President Macron is developing a strategic perspective for Europe, a perspective of real, lasting security that is only possible through Putin's defeat in this war," Zelenskyy said.
Germany was conspicuously absent from Zelenskyy’s remarks.
MILITARY & TECH
NATO military are already in Ukraine for specific tasks — El Pais
Spanish news organisation El Pais reported on Mar. 18 that NATO military personnel are already in Ukraine for certain specialty tasks including arms control, intelligence operations and training purposes.
The French proposal to not to rule out the sending of soldiers against Russia opens a debate confirming that there are already Atlantic Alliance soldiers in the invaded country,
The agency has interviewed many military sources from Ukraine and the EU over more than two years of war, and they all agree that no NATO army has taken part in ground combat. But they also agree that they have observers on the ground who provide information about the situation on the frontline, determine the effectiveness of the weapons being supplied and possible problems in their use, and identify possible cases of corruption in the delivery of aid.
At least two sources, one American and one Ukrainian claim that Washington is particularly active in monitoring their assistance, organising missions between its embassy and the Ukrainian authorities, as well as visiting them outside official channels.
NATO Begins Construction on Huge European Base in Romania
The Mihail Kogalniceanu base will become the largest in Europe, accommodating 10,000 personnel and bolstering regional security, Defense Express reports.
Construction has commenced on the largest NATO base in Europe, situated in Romania near the city of Constanta. Spanning an expansive area of nearly three thousand hectares, the Mihail Kogalniceanu base is designed to accommodate up to ten thousand military personnel and their accompanying families.
Upon its completion, this base will surpass Germany’s Ramstein base in both size and operational capacity. The project’s primary objective is to enhance air infrastructure capabilities, encompassing the construction of new runways, a state-of-the-art control tower, beacon and radio navigation systems, a cutting-edge flight simulator and advanced hangar facilities.
This strategic initiative is poised to transform the city into a permanent residence for 10,000 NATO military personnel, their families and essential support personnel. The base is slated to achieve full operational readiness by the year 2040.
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