UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-07-31
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 60 sources daily, much of which forms the basis of the script. While the Podcast is on hiatus I will make this Draft available here both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 22:00 on July 30 stated that day 888 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.
During the past day, 108 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 71 air strikes, 340 drone strikes and more than 3,000 artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deep into the territory of Ukraine.
ISW - Russia incapable of launching a broad offensive this summer
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its July 30 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment assessed that Russian forces likely lack the wider operational capacity to mount a separate renewed offensive operation in Donetsk Oblast or elsewhere on the front this summer.
Russian forces conducted five platoon- to battalion-sized mechanised assaults in western Donetsk Oblast on July 29 and 30. Such localised mechanised pushes are likely the manifestation of Russia's forecasted summer offensive.
Geolocated footage published on July 29 indicates that Russian forces marginally advanced on the southwestern outskirts of Kostyantynivka (southwest of Donetsk City) during a reinforced-battalion sized mechanised assault.
The same Ukrainian brigade that repelled the July 24 reinforced-battalion sized mechanised assault near Kostyantynivka reported that Russian forces committed 10 tanks, 47 armoured fighting vehicles, 10 motorcycles, and a "buggy" to the July 29 assault and that Ukrainian forces struck eight tanks, 12 armoured fighting vehicles, nine motorcycles, and the buggy.
Additional geolocated footage and Ukrainian reporting indicate that Russian forces conducted an unsuccessful reduced-company sized mechanised assault southwest of Pobieda (southwest of Donetsk City) on the morning of July 29 and that Russian forces marginally advanced southwest of the settlement during a separate reinforced-platoon sized mechanised assault on July 30. Ukrainian sources published footage and reported on July 29 that Russian forces also conducted an unsuccessful reinforced-company sized mechanised assault in an unspecified area of the Kurakhove direction (west of Marinka) and an unsuccessful reinforced-platoon sized mechanised assault near Krasnohorivka (west of Donetsk City).
Ukrainian forces previously blunted a reinforced-battalion sized Russian mechanised assault near Kostyantynivka on July 24 and a reinforced-company sized assault near the settlement on July 25.
ISW previously assessed that Russian forces are likely attempting to seize Kostyantynivka and cut the Vuhledar-Kostyantynivka T-0524 highway, forcing Ukrainians to retreat from the area.
ISW assesses that periodic and pulsating Russian mechanised assaults likely represent the extent of Russia's current offensive capacity, and Russia is unlikely to mount a distinct new summer offensive operation due to material and manpower constraints.
The Russian military command's willingness to accept costly armored vehicle losses without conducting a large-scale, multi-directional offensive operation or making operationally significant advances in western Donetsk Oblast will likely burden the Russian military in the long-term.
ISW previously noted that Russian forces have struggled to conduct simultaneous large-scale offensive operations throughout the war but are prone to conducting offensive operations in "pulses" along different sectors of the front, with one sector decreasing in intensity as another sector increases.
Russian forces have conducted periodic platoon and company-sized mechanised assaults in the Lyman, Chasiv Yar, and Avdiivka directions in Donetsk Oblast throughout the summer, and have more recently intensified assaults west and southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces also reportedly recommitted elements of the Central Military District's (CMD) 90th Tank Division (41st Combined Arms Army [CAA]) from Avdiivka to southwest of Donetsk City, suggesting that the Russian military command may assess that Russian forces are unlikely to make rapid tactical gains near Avdiivka and are re-prioritizing the Donetsk City area.
Russian milbloggers have been uncharacteristically quiet about recent Russian mechanised assaults in western Donetsk Oblast.
Air Force Daily Report
On the night of July 31, 2024, the enemy attacked with a Kh-59 guided air missile from the airspace of the occupied Kherson region and 89 strike UAVs of the "Shahed" type from the Yeisk, Seshcha, Kursk, Primorsko-Akhtarsk regions. The main direction of the attack is Kyiv region!
This is one of the most massive attacks by the "Shahed-131/136" UAVs. The enemy used the same number of "shaheds" on New Year's Eve, January 1, 2024. As then, today Ukrainian air defenses withstood and repelled a massive attack by enemy drones.
All 89 of the 89 "Shahed-131/136" strike UAVs detected by the radar units of the Air Force were shot down!
Mobile fire groups of all Defense Forces of Ukraine, tactical aviation of the Air Force and army aviation of the Ground Forces, anti-aircraft missile units and EW of the Air Force were involved in repelling the air attack. The Kh-59 guided air missile was also shot down, with which the enemy attacked Mykolaiv Oblast.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kharkiv axis: There were 4 unsuccessful Russian attacks near Tykhe and Vovchansk.
Kupyansk axis: The enemy carried out 6 unsuccessful attacks near Pishchane and Stelmakhivka. The three enemy assaults are ongoing.
Lyman axis: Russia attacked 14 times in the direction of settlements of Novoserhiyivka, Makiivka, Nevske and the Serebryanskyy Forest.
Siversk axis: Russian forces carried out 6 unsuccessful assaults in the vicinity of Verkhnokamianske, Vyimka and Pereizne
Kramatorsk axis: Russian forces carried out 5 offensive actions near Chasiv Yar, 3 were repulsed, 2 are ongoing.
Toretsk axis: There have been 15 Russian attacks over that last day, 3 battles are still ongoing. All the efforts of the enemy were directed to the areas of Pivinchne, Toretsk, Zalizne and Nui-York.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk axis: The greatest activity over the past day was in this sector. The enemy conducted 40 attacks against Ukrainian defences in this area over the last day in the vicinity of Novooleksandrivka, Ivanivka, Vesele, Zhelanne and Yasnobrodivka. 22 were repelled and 18 are ongoing.
Kurakhove axis: Russian forces tried to advance 10 times in the areas of settlements Krasnogorivka and Paraskoviivka. 9 were repulsed, one remains ongoing.
Vremivka axis: The Russians conducted 4 unsuccessful offensive actions near Staromaiorske.
Orikhiv axis: The situation in this sector has not changed significantly. Two enemy attacks were repulsed over the last day.
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Prydniprovsk axis: The situation in this sector has not changed significantly.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Ukraine repels one of Russia's largest drone attacks of war
Ukraine's air force said it repelled one of Russia's largest long-range drone attacks of the war overnight, shooting down all 89 drones launched at Kyiv, the surrounding region and other areas in the early hours of Wednesday. Reuters reports.
The attack, which came more than 29 months after Russia's full-scale invasion, primarily targeted Kyiv and the surrounding region where local authorities said more than 40 drones were shot down. An air raid alert remained in place most of the night.
The capital's military administration said no civilian or critical infrastructure took a direct hit, but debris damaged the roofs, windows and facades of 13 private residences in the region, according to authorities there.
"This is one of the most massive attacks by Shahed-131/136 strike drones," the air force said, naming the type of drone it says Russia has used in the thousands for strikes on Ukraine.
A military intelligence spokesman told Reuters last week that Russia had also started using new cheaply-produced drones, some of them fitted with cameras, to film the location of Ukraine's air defences and results of its strikes, with others acting as decoys.
Serhiy Popko, head of Kyiv's military administration, said the latest drone attack was the seventh conducted against the city in July.
Some 11,500 residents sheltered for safety in metro stations in the night as the drones came in several waves from "all possible directions," the city authorities said.
The air force also intercepted a Kh-59 missile fired at the southern region of Mykolaiv, it said. Local authorities had not reported any damage there as of Wednesday morning.
Kyiv and most of central and eastern Ukraine were under air raid alerts from 2000 GMT on Tuesday. Air defence systems were engaged on the approaches to Kyiv and the region outside the region several times in the night, Popko said.
Kyiv repels huge Russian drone assault of 2024, no casualties reported.
The Kyiv City Military Administration (KMVA) reported that Russian forces conducted the most extensive drone attack on Kyiv this year, with air defense systems intercepting over 40 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in the early hours of July 31. Euromaidan Press reports.
According to the KMVA, the assault targeted the Ukrainian capital with “many dozens” of drones, marking the seventh such attack on Kyiv in July alone. The air raid alert lasted for more than seven hours as drones approached the city in waves from multiple directions.
“This was one of the most significant attacks since the full-scale invasion began and the largest one this year,” Serhii Popko, head of the KMVA.
During the second wave of drone strikes, Russian UAVs continued to attack Kyiv in waves from specific directions. However, not a single drone achieved its goal.
In general, over four dozen Russian UAVs were shot down in the airspace of Kyiv and on the outskirts of the capital during these two waves.
Ukraine’s State Emergency Service reported that a residential building burned down in the Kyiv Oblast at night as a result of falling debris.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Ukrainian cyberattack targets Russia's central bank
Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR) on July 29 carried out a cyberattack against the Russian central bank, the Kyiv Independent reported citing a source in the agency.
This appears to be only the most recent step in an ongoing cyber campaign, which began on July 23 and affected several top Russian banks, including Gazprombank, VTB, Raiffeisen Bank, and Alfa Bank.
The central bank's services have become unavailable or began experiencing significant interruptions at around 11 a.m. local time, the source said.
This corresponds to an article in the Russian business news outlet Frank Media, which said that users began encountering issues with the bank's website around the same time. Several sources confirmed for the outlet that a DDoS attack against the institution was underway.
Russian users also cannot access the online services of Gazprombank and Bank Zenit, a situation further complicated by cyberattacks against Russia's telecommunications providers, the source noted.
"Broker applications, ATMs, Russian social media networks, messengers, Internet providers, and payment systems were also attacked," according to the source.
The central bank's website remains inaccessible from abroad. According to Frank Media, accessing the site from Russia is possible only intermittently.
The bank said on July 27 it would carry out scheduled maintenance of the site, but the work was not expected to last more than one day.
Ukraine strikes Russian weapons, equipment depot near Kursk
Ukraine’s Defense Forces conducted an overnight strike on a weapons and military equipment storage facility near Kursk, Russia, on 31 July, according to a report from Ukraine’s military.
According to Ukraine’s Armed Forces, the operation reportedly involved units of the Ukrainian Navy working in coordination with other defense force components. The General Staff reported that information on the strike’s results is still being clarified.
Russia’s Ministry of Defense claimed to have intercepted the attack, reporting that air defenses shot down a drone and destroyed a Neptune-MD-guided missile over the Kursk Oblast.
The ministry also stated that 18 drones were shot down over the Belgorod, Bryansk, Kaluga, and Rostov oblasts, as well as over Crimea.
Kursk Oblast’s Governor Alexey Smirnov mentioned a fire following a “strike on an object,” though he did not provide further details.
According to Smirnov, a loud explosion occurred in Kursk on 30 July. The governor claimed that four missiles had been destroyed over the Oktyabrsky and Kurchatov districts of Kursk Oblast during the night. However, this claim has not been independently verified.
Russia's Gazprom net losses nearly double since last year
Russian gas giant Gazprom suffered net losses from January to June 2024 almost double those in the same period last year, the Ukrainian media outlet enkorr on July 31.
Losses in the first half of 2024 totalled 480.64 billion rubles ($5.5 billion), while those in the first half of 2023 totalled 255 billion rubles ($2.95 billion), according to Gazprom financial statements seen by the outlet.
Gazprom has had a turbulent time since the launch of Russia's full-scale invasion – its revenue fell by 30% last year with a net loss of $6.9 billion, the largest in 25 years.
Moscow's war in Ukraine led to worsening relations with Europe, limiting the operations of the company.
The energy giant relied on European markets and failed to find alternatives after the EU moved away from Russian gas. While Gazprom found some success in other foreign markets, this only accounts for 5-10% of its European sales.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
Ukraine to receive $ 7.85 billion in US aid, first tranche expected in coming weeks
In a move to bolster Ukraine’s battered energy infrastructure after Russian strikes, the United States also committed $500 million in new energy assistance and redirected an additional $324 million for urgent energy needs.
Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced that Ukraine will receive $7.85 billion in direct budget support from the United States in 2024, and the first $3.9 billion is already expected in the coming weeks.
Ukrainian Prime Minister met with the US Special Representative for Ukraine’s Economic Recovery, Penny Pritzker, in Kyiv on 29 July to discuss crucial economic support and recovery initiatives, underscoring the US commitment to Ukraine’s recovery after Russia’s war.
A key outcome of the talks was the confirmation of imminent US financial aid, according to Shmyhal.
The discussions also centered on the recent G7 decision to allocate $50 billion to Ukraine from future revenues of frozen Russian assets. Shmyhal expressed Ukraine’s aim to access these funds starting in 2025, emphasizing the importance of flexibility in their use, including for military needs.
Earlier, European Economic Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni announced that the G7 is expected to finalize a framework for a $50 billion loan package for Ukraine by October 2024. The loan will be backed by approximately $300 billion in frozen Russian central bank assets seized after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Energy sector support emerged as another crucial topic. The US pledged $500 million in new energy assistance and redirected $324 million for urgent energy requirements.
Shmyhal stressed the critical nature of this support, stating, “Energy support is critically necessary for us today to restore what the enemy has destroyed.”
Hungary opens doors to Russians amid EU security concerns
Hungary sparked controversy within the European Union by allowing Russians and Belarusians to enter the country as guest workers without security checks, RND reports.
Hungary, under Orbán, remains the only EU state maintaining ties with the Kremlin post-Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and consistently opposes EU collective military support to Ukraine.
This move, implemented by Prime Minister Viktor Orban, raised concerns about potential security risks, including the possibility of Russian spies or individuals with malicious intent entering the EU, according to RND.
The Hungarian government announced in spring that it expected about 65,000 guest workers under this program. These workers can bring their families and apply for permanent residency after three years.
This policy starkly contrasts with other EU countries like Finland, which has closed its borders to Russian citizens, citing security concerns.
EU foreign policy expert Sergey Lagodinsky (Greens) criticized the move, telling RND that allowing entry without security checks while Russia is actively trying to weaken Europe through hybrid attacks is misguided.
MILITARY & TECH
Ukraine Confirms Significant Damage to Two russian Tu-22M3 Bombers at the Olenya Air Base
During the strike on the Olenya airfield in Russia, close to the Arctic Circle, two bombers were damaged, according to Andriy Yusov, a spokesperson of the Defense Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine (HUR).
“It involved an explosion near the aircraft. I can confirm that two Tu-22M3 aircraft were damaged – aircraft No. 33 and aircraft No. 31. Aircraft No. 33 has holes in the upper part of the fuselage, and aircraft No. 31 also sustained damage,” Andriy Yusov stated.
It may take russia several months to repair these aircraft, the official states. These aircraft are specifically used by russia to attack civilian targets and infrastructure.
“Incidents at russian oil refineries and other facilities involved in the war against Ukraine continue. The strike on the Olenya air base is significant news and a morale boost for Ukrainians this weekend. And certainly, there will be more to come,” Andriy Yusov emphasized.
That’s it for today’s Draft folks if you would like to keep up with events in Ukraine daily please consider subscribing, its free!
Feel free to share this update with your friends. Heroyam Slava!