UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-05-11
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 60 sources daily, much of which forms the basis of the script. While the Podcast is on hiatus I will make this Draft available here both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its situation update at 06:00 on May 11 stated that it was day 808 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
During the past day, 104 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 7 missile strikes, 108 air strikes, and 120 MLRS attacks across the positions of our troops and settlements. As a result of the Russian attacks, unfortunately, there are dead and wounded among the civilian population. Destruction and damage to residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line.
More than 120 settlements in Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, and Mykolaiv oblasts came under enemy fire.
Air Force Daily Report
The Ukrainian Air Force in its situation update at 06:00 stated that during the previous day Ukrainian Air Force and Missile Forces launched strikes on 1 command post, 1 fuel and lubricants depot, 1 anti-aircraft missile system, 1 radar station, and 18 concentrations of troops.
In the Dnipro district of the Dnipropetrovsk region, a unit of the Air Command "East" destroyed a guided air missile Kh-59/69.
Kharkiv Incursion
Kharkiv Front: Ukrainian forces repelled 9 attacks in the vicinities of Strilecha, Krasne, Morokhovets’, Oliinykove, Luk’yantsi, Ohirtseve, Hatyshche, and Pletenivka (Kharkiv oblast).
ISW: Russia unlikely to seize Kharkiv City despite offensive efforts
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) stated in its May 10 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment that the Russian incursion along the Kharkiv international borders is unlikely a serious attempt to capture the city of Kharkiv
ISW believes Russian forces will likely leverage their tactical foothold in northern Kharkiv Oblast in the coming days to intensify offensive operations and pursue the initial phase of an offensive effort likely intended to push back Ukrainian forces from the border with Belgorod Oblast and advance to within tube artillery range of Kharkiv City.
“The limited efforts that Russian forces are currently conducting do not suggest that Russian forces are immediately pursuing a large-scale sweeping offensive operation to envelop, encircle, and seize Kharkiv City”
ISW assesses with high confidence, based on credible Ukrainian reporting and the preponderance of evidence, that Russian forces have seized Strilecha, Krasne, and Borisivka, but has yet to observe geolocated confirmation of this assessment. Russian propaganda sources also claimed that Russian forces seized Zelene, Ohirtseve, and Hatyshche (both west of Vovchansk), although ISW has not observed confirmation of these claims.
Reuters reported that a senior Ukrainian military source stated that Russian forces advanced at least one kilometre in depth near Vovchansk. ISW assesses that Russian forces have advanced in the direction of Vovchansk but has not observed enough evidence to assess an approximate frontline trace in the immediate area. Ukrainian sources reported that fighting continued near Krasne, Morokhovets (northeast of Lyptsi), Oliinykove (northeast of Lyptsi), and Hatyshche later in the afternoon.
“Russian offensive operations along the Kharkiv international border likely have the strategic objective of drawing and fixing Ukrainian forces to this axis to enable Russian advances in other areas of eastern Ukraine.”
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the Kupyansk, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kupyansk axis: Ukrainian forces repelled 13 attacks in the vicinities of Synkivka, Berestove, (Kharkiv oblast), and Stelmakhivka (Luhansk oblast). Where the occupiers, with air support, attempted to breach Ukrainian defensive lines.
Lyman axis: The enemy launched 11 attacks on the positions of Ukrainian defenders in the vicinities of Makiivka, (Luhansk oblast) and Tors’ke, (Donetsk oblast). Where, supported by aviation, they attempted to breach Ukrainian defensive lines.
Bakhmut axis: Ukrainian forces repelled 18 attacks in the vicinities of Bilohorivka (Luhansk oblast), Verkhnokamyanske, Vyimka, Rozdolivka, Hryhorivka, Bohdanivka, Kalynivka, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka (Donetsk oblast). Where, with air support, the invaders attempted to improve their tactical position in that area.
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The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the Avdiivka, Novopavlivka, and Orikhiv axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Avdiivka axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 24 attacks in the vicinities of Kalynove, Novooleksandrivka, Sokil, Umanske, (Donetsk oblast). Where, with the air support, the invaders attempted to dislodge Ukrainian troops from their positions.
Novopavlivka axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the enemy in the vicinities of Krasnohorivka, southwest of Novomykhailivka and Solodke (Donetsk oblast).Where,with the air support, the invaders made 11 attempts to breach Ukrainian defences in that area.
Orikhiv axis: The enemy conducted 14 attacks, with air support, on positions of Ukrainian defenders in the vicinities of Staromaiors’ke (Donetsk oblast), Robotyne (Zaporizhzhia oblast).
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Kherson axis: Ukrainian defenders continue to maintain their positions. Over the past day, the enemy carried out 1 unsuccessful assault on the bridgeheads of the Ukrainian Defence Forces on the left bank of the Dnipro River attempting to dislodge them from their positions.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Russia planned terrorist attacks in Kyiv thwarted by SSU
The Russian GRU (Main Intelligence Directorate) planned to carry out terrorist attacks in Kyiv on May 9. The Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) prevented these provocations, according to SSU spokesperson Artem Dehtiarenko. RBC-Ukraine reports.
According to the spokesperson, the planning of the terrorist attacks was directed by Russia's Main Intelligence Directorate, commonly known as the GRU.
"The SSU acted preemptively, and the perpetrators of the terrorist acts were apprehended in the act. Moreover, substantial evidence that unquestionably confirms the Russian trace has been collected," Dehtiarenko noted.
The SSU promises to provide details of the special operation later.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Ukrainian Defense intelligence allegedly attack oil refinery in Russia’s Volgograd oblast overnight
Drones of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Agency (HUR) attacked the Volgograd oil refinery in Russia overnight on May 11, RBC-Ukraine reported, citing its own sources.
The attack took place around 4 am. The sources said the plant’s primary oil processing units, AVT-1 and AVT-6, were damaged. Intelligence is still assessing their current condition.
The drone attack also reportedly damaged a control cable for the air coolers, resulting in 7 of them being switched off and the smoke stack of the P-1 furnace.
The refinery reportedly belongs to the Lukoil corporation.
Russia continues to have problems with use of aerial bombs
The UK Ministry of Defence in its May 11 Intelligence Update reported that on May 4, a Russian fighter jet dropped an FAB-500 over Belgorod. The region's governor, Vyacheslav Gladkov, stated that there was an explosion but did not specify the cause. According to him, 30 houses, 10 cars, and 5 people were damaged.
This is not an isolated incident, on February 18, there was information that an FAB-250 fell near Belgorod, leading to the evacuation of 150 people. According to media estimates, about 20 munitions were dropped over the Belgorod region in this manner from March to April 2024.
" These instances indicate Russia's continued inability to successfully employ their munitions on intended targets. Such errors have destructive and lethal consequences for the Russian population," the MOD stated.
Grumpy here – One would be hard pressed to call dropping bombs 20 times on your own city over a two month period an accident. This is a combination of incompetence, poor training, bad design, combat fatigue and callous disregard.
Russian Defense Ministry claims drone, missile attack in Belgorod, Volgograd, Kursk oblasts overnight
The Russian Defense Ministry claims that on the night of 11 May, Belgorod, Volgograd, and Kursk oblasts were attacked by drones. Euromaidan reports.
The Ukrainian military has not yet confirmed the veracity of these claims
Russian air defenses allegedly “prevented a number of attempts to carry out attacks on the territory of the Russian Federation using the RM-70 ‘Vampir’ multiple launch rocket system and unmanned aerial vehicles of the aircraft type,” the ministry reported.
The ministry claimed that “21 missiles and nine UAVs were shot down over the territory of the Belgorod Oblast, seven UAVs were intercepted and destroyed over the territories of the Kursk and Volgograd oblasts.”
Belgorod Oblast Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said, “The air defense system was activated over Belgorod and the Belgorod district – several air targets were shot down on their way to the city.” The attack reportedly damaged houses, apartments, and cars. According to Gladkov, there were injured people.
Kursk oblast Governor Roman Starovoyt said that “as a result of the use of electronic warfare means in the town of Tym, two aircraft-type UAVs were intercepted.” One reportedly crashed near a hospital building and damaged windows in residential buildings.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
Pentagon does everything possible to quickly deliver weapons to Ukraine
John Kirby, National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications at the White House stated that The US Department of Defense has ensured the delivery of some weapons to Ukraine's Armed Forces positions from the previous military support package, and it has been making efforts to deliver the remaining weapons and equipment, including those from the new aid package. Ukrinform reports.
"Some items from the first defence assistance package, which we announced under the law for supplemental funding on the same day the president signed it, have made it to the battlefield, into the hands of Ukrainian military personnel. The [US] Department of Defense is literally moving heaven and earth to make this happen as quickly as possible. And work is still ongoing on the deliveries of what remains from the previous package."
— John Kirby, US National Security Council Coordinator
Kirby emphasised that he would not specify what exactly has been delivered due to operational security considerations. However, he said that rapid delivery had been achieved by pre-positioning military aid in European warehouses. Some equipment will take more time to reach Ukraine.
White House does not expect serious breakthroughs from Russia’s Kharkiv Incursion
John Kirby, White House National Security Communications Advisor said on Friday that The US anticipates Russian forces to continue pushing as part of their latest offensive attempt in the north of Kharkiv, but does not anticipate "major breakthroughs". AFP reported.
Commenting on Russian activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, Kirby stated that the US expected an offensive and that Russian forces were preparing for it during a lengthy delay in approving more support for Ukraine in Congress.
"It is certainly possible that the Russians are setting themselves up for a larger assault on Kharkiv," Kirby said, underlining that the White House does not anticipate any significant breakthroughs from the Russian forces.
In addition, he claimed that the US is sure that the influx of military aid will allow Ukraine to withstand these attacks in 2024.
The White House expects that Russian forces would intensify the fire and shift more troops, attempting to establish a small buffer zone along the Ukrainian border. Nonetheless, Kirby stated that the White House is confident in Ukrainian forces and that they are working around the clock to assist Ukraine with the equipment, resources, and weapons it needs to defend itself against these attacks.
MILITARY & TECH
US approves urgent sale of three HIMARS systems for Ukraine
The US State Department approved an urgent sale of three High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) launchers for approximately $30 million to Ukraine.
European Pravda reported, citing the agency’s statement, that Ukraine’s request to purchase three HIMARS rocket systems from the United States has been approved.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken noted that there is an emergency situation that requires the urgent sale of these systems to Ukraine, which will come from the stockpiles of the United States Army. The approved sale will be funded by Germany. Blinken explained.
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius announced on 10 May, while visiting Washington, plans to purchase three HIMARS launchers from the United States and transfer them to Ukraine.
9 Different Unmanned Systems Bolster Ukrainian Military Capabilities, Minimising Casualties on the Front Lines
Ukraine has unveiled domestically produced robots for logistics, evacuation and combat purposes on the front line. Defense Express reports.
The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine has revealed that nine ground robotic platforms developed by Ukrainian manufacturers have been codified and put into operation within the Ukrainian defence forces since the start of this year.
Colonel Volodymyr Rochniak, the head of the Ministry of Defense’s department, made this announcement, highlighting the increasing role of unmanned systems in minimising human presence on the front lines and enhancing battlefield capabilities.
While the specific platforms remain undisclosed, they encompass a range of purpose-built systems, including armed platforms with machine guns, evacuation units, logistical support, and those designed for mine clearance and demolition. Colonel Volodymyr Rochniak emphasises the growing significance of unmanned ground platforms and notes the focus of Ukrainian manufacturers on their production to bolster forces.
One notable example is the Ironclad combat robot with the ShaBlia combat module from Roboneers, which the 5th Separate Assault Kyiv Brigade showcased in January, engaging russian forces.
Additionally, unmanned ground platforms like the Ratel S system, used for mine clearance and capable of carrying up to 35 kg of payload, are gaining traction, including their application as kamikaze robots with two anti-tank mines in their mine-clearing version.
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