UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-07-12
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 60 sources daily, much of which forms the basis of the script. While the Podcast is on hiatus I will make this Draft available here both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 22:00 on July 11 stated that day 869 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.
During the past day, 103 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 49 air strikes, 486 drone strikes and 3,109 artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deep into the territory of Ukraine.
Air Force Daily Report
On the evening of July 11, 2024, the occupiers attacked from strategic bombers and with drones
5 Kh-101 air-based cruise missiles (launched from the Saratov Region - Russia), during the night
19 Shahed-131/136 attack UAVs and unmanned aerial vehicles of an unknown type from Primorsko-Akhtarsk districts, Kursk region. - Russian Federation
The main direction of the attack is Starokostyantyniv.
Fighter aircraft, anti-aircraft missile units of the Air Force, mobile fire groups of the Defense Forces of Ukraine and electronic warfare units were involved in repelling the enemy's air attack.
As a result of anti-aircraft combat, all missiles were shot down in Khmelnytskyi, Sumy and Cherkasy regions. Also, air defence shot down 11 "shaheed" and unmanned aerial vehicles of an unknown type in the Mykolaiv, Kyiv, Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi, Kherson and Sumy regions.
The remaining eight drones were lost in location. Presumably, in order to overload air defence, the enemy uses simulators of attack UAVs. There was no information about casualties and damage. In case of detection of suspicious objects, please do not take any action on your own, but immediately report their location to the police, emergency services or local administration.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kharkiv axis: The enemy conducted 4 assault actions supported by aviation, in the areas of Hlyboke and Vovchansk.
Kupyansk axis: The enemy tried to advance 3 times against Ukrainian positions near Synkivka and Berestove. The situation is under control.
Lyman axis: Russian troops attacked Ukrainian defenders 8 times in the areas of Hrekivka, Makiivka, Nevske Three attacks are ongoing. The situation is under control.
Siversk axis: Russian forces carried out 3 assaults in the vicinity of Verkhnokamianske and Rozdolivka. The situation is under control.
Kramatorsk axis: The enemy attacked 4 times near the settlements of Chasiv Yar and Ivanivske all attacks were suppressed.
Toretsk axis: The situation is tense in this sector. Russia attacked 18 times near Pivnichne, Toretsk and Nui-York.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk axis: The highest intensity of combat remains in this sector. The enemy conducted 33 attacks against Ukrainian defences in this area over the last day in the vicinity of Kalynove, Vozdvizhenka, Novooleksandrívka, Prohes, Sokil, Novoselivka Persha and Karlivka.
Kurakhove axis: The enemy 9 times unsuccessfully attacked our positions near Krasnohorivka, Heorgievka and Paraskovievka.
Vremika axis: The Russians conducted 13 offensive actions near Kostianynivka and Vodiane
Orikhiv axis: The situation has not experienced significant changes.
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Prydniprovsk axis: The enemy made 2 attacks in the vicinity of Mala Tokmachka and Hulyaipole.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Russian mass attack on Ukraine air base defeated
Lieutenant General Mykola Oleshchuk, Commander of the Air Force of Ukraine reported on July 12 that Russia attacked with five Kh-101 missiles on the evening of July 11 and launched 19 Shahed-131/136 drones. The assault focused on Starokostiantyniv air base, but caused no casualties or damage.
According to Oleshchuk, Ukraine air defences successfully intercepted all five air-based cruise missiles of the Kh-101 type launched from strategic bombers. Throughout the night, of the 19 Shahed-131/136 one-way attack UAVs and drones of unidentified types launched by Russia, 11 Shahed-131/136 drones were shot down and the other 8 never reached their targets.
The main direction of the attack was Starokostiantyniv in Khmelnytskyi Oblast, which hosts one of the Ukrainian air bases. The cruise missiles were launched from Saratov Oblast of Russia, while the drones were deployed from Primorsko-Akhtarsk and Kursk Oblast of the Russian Federation.
The town of Starokostiantyniv in Khmelnytskyi Oblast, western Ukraine, hosts a military air base housing Ukraine’s Su-24 jets, which are uniquely capable of carrying UK-supplied Storm Shadow missiles. The base is frequently targeted by Russian missiles and drones.
Russian attack destroys fire and rescue centre in Toretsk
A fire and rescue centre in Toretsk, Donetsk Oblast, was destroyed in a Russian attack on 12 July. State Emergency Service of Ukraine reported
"Only terrible ruins remain where the fire and rescue centre stood in Toretsk (Bakhmut district, Donetsk Oblast) after an enemy strike."
The SES said that the staff of the fire and rescue centre were not injured. According to the SES, despite constant Russian attacks and other difficulties, emergency response workers continue to monitor the aftermath of Russian attacks, treat injured civilians, and evacuate residents of the Toretsk area.
Photos courtesy State Emergency Services:
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Okhmatdyt children's hospital prepares for reconstruction
The Okhmatdyt Children's Hospital intends on selecting a construction company next week that will eliminate the consequences of the Russian missile attack and begin to reconstruct the hospital; around UAH 800 million (approx. US$19.5 million) has already been raised from benefactors. Interfax-Ukraine news agency reports.
"At the beginning of next week, Okhmatdyt will choose a construction company that will carry out construction work to eliminate the consequences of the missile attack," said Ukraine’s Minister of Health Viktor Liashko.
He went on to say that the hospital and the ministry are working on a technical task for the design of a new building to replace the one that has been entirely destroyed.
Lyashko stated that more than UAH 800 million had already been received from partners through charitable foundation accounts. The money will be used, in particular, to construct a new building on the location of the demolished one
According to preliminary estimates, as Lyashko said, the clinic will require equipment replacement costing between UAH 360 and 400 million (US$8.8-9.7 million). He also verified that equipment manufacturers have been offering the delivery of their hardware. The list of equipment needed will be determined by Okhmatdyt.
RUSSIAN WORLD
UK intel: Russia suffers highest war casualties in May-June 2024
The UK Ministry of Defence in their July 12 Intelligence Update on Ukraine stated Russia’s war casualties in Ukraine have reached their highest levels over the past two months.
The average daily Russian casualties (killed and wounded) in Ukraine throughout May and June 2024, increased to conflict highs of 1262 and 1163 respectively. In total Russia likely lost (killed and wounded) in excess of 70,000 personnel over the past two months.
The uptick in losses reflects Russia’s opening of the new front in the Kharkiv region, while maintaining the same rate of offensive operations along the remainder of the front. Although this new approach has increased the pressure on the frontline, an effective Ukrainian defence and a lack of Russian training reduces Russia’s ability to exploit any tactical successes, despite attempting to stretch the frontline further.
Russia’s casualty rate will likely continue to average above 1,000 a day over the next two months as Russia continues to try to overmatch Ukrainian positions with mass.
The estimation of the Russian losses by the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces amount to more than 556,000 troops. Notably, the destruction of dozens of Russian artillery pieces has been reported daily for months.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
Australia arrests two Russian-born Australian citizens of espionage
In a joint press release of the Australian Federal Police and Australian Security Intelligence Organisation Australian authorities reported the arrest of two Australian citizens of Russian descent who are accused of espionage.
"Two Russian-born Australian citizens accused of obtaining Australian Defence Force material to share with Russian authorities will face Brisbane Magistrates Court today after being charged with an espionage-related offence." the release stated
The individuals in question are 40-year-old private in the Australian Defence Force, and her 62-year-old husband. On the morning of 11 July, they were arrested at their house in the suburbs of Brisbane. On the same day, the couple were charged with espionage, a crime punishable by up to 15 years in jail.
According to reports, this is Australia's first espionage case since new legislation was passed in 2018.
European allies ready to cut China investment over Russia backing, Biden warns
European NATO countries are ready to curb their investments in China over the country's support for Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, U.S. President Joe Biden said on July 11 in Washington. Bloomberg reports.
The statement came against the backdrop of NATO naming Beijing a "decisive enabler" of Russia's war due to the ongoing flow of dual-use goods and equipment.
This was a radical shift for NATO, as many European members have long been hesitant to openly call out China due to its role as a key economic partner.
Biden reiterated that China was not directly supplying weapons to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s forces but also underscored it wouldn’t benefit financially “if they are supplying Russia with information and capacity.”
"We have to make sure that (Chinese President Xi Jinping) understands there's a price to pay for undercutting both the Pacific basin as well as Europe, and it relates to Russia and dealing with Ukraine," Biden said during the NATO summit in the U.S. capital.
The U.S. president warned that Beijing is "not going to benefit economically" and will not receive the "kind of investment they're looking for" if it continues supplying Moscow with "mechanisms" that allow it to fuel the war effort.
European capitals were alarmed by reports this month that Chinese and Russian companies were developing an attack drone similar to an Iranian model deployed in Ukraine, Bloomberg reported earlier.
The push from NATO shows a growing consensus between the US and its partners that Beijing represents a threat not just in Asia, but also to European security through its support for Russia. In recent years, European capitals from Berlin to London, Prague and Vilnius have hardened their stance on China.
NATO approves a long term military support agreement with Ukraine.
At the end of the 75th NATO Summit in Washington, the Ukrainian Compact was adopted, which supplemented the G7 Joint Declaration agreed at the previous summit of the North Atlantic Alliance in Vilnius. President Zelenskyy’s office reported.
“The 75th NATO Summit in Washington concluded with the endorsement of the Ukraine Compact. This document serves as a supplement to the Joint G7 Declaration agreed upon a year ago at the previous NATO Summit in Vilnius. In total, 32 participants have already joined it, all of whom were present today, including 23 leaders of countries with which Ukraine has signed bilateral security agreements,” the statement reads.
Kyiv has been in the process of signing security agreements with partner countries as part of the G7 Joint Declaration of Support for Ukraine of July 12, 2023. In total, 23 such bilateral documents have already been signed: with the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Denmark, Canada, Italy, the Netherlands, Finland, Latvia, Spain, Belgium, Portugal, Sweden, Iceland, Norway, Japan, the United States, the EU, Estonia, Lithuania, Poland, Luxembourg, and Romania.
"The Ukraine Compact elevates our relations to a new level. It is a significant achievement for Ukraine and all of us," Zelenskyy said.
MILITARY & TECH
US develops subsonic aviation munition with 250kg warhead for Ukraine
The United States Air Force is developing a new long-range aviation munition specifically for Ukraine, according to a request from the US Air Force Life Cycle Management Center (AFLCMC) Weapons Directorate. The project, named ERAM (Extended Range Air-Launched Munition), aims to enhance Ukraine’s military capabilities with an affordable and easily mass-produced weapon, Militarnyi reports.
The ERAM project specifications, initially released in January, call for a precision-guided munition with a range of at least 250 nautical miles (463 km) and a subsonic speed of 200 m/s. The weapon is designed to carry a 500-pound (250 kg) warhead with both penetrating and fragmentation effects. The munition’s accuracy is set at a circular error probable of up to 10 meters.
In particular, the ERAM requirements are met by Boeing’s PJDAM munition, which consists of a 500-pound bomb, guidance system, fuselage and Kratos-TDI-J85 jet engine that transforms a conventional bomb into a cruise missile.
Europe to develop its own long range cruise missile due to US not permitting strikes against Russia with its weapons
A serious rift has appeared in NATO ranks at the Washington summit which has resulted in France, Germany, Italy, and Poland signing an agreement to develop a ground-based cruise missile, Defense Express reports.
Currently, its name is not announced, and the only parameter specified is a range of 500 km, with the goal of filling the capability gap of European countries in light of the real experience of russia's invasion of Ukraine.
But the main point is that by announcing the start of work on creating their own long-range ground-based cruise missile, these European countries directly indicated to the United States that it had just lost a huge defense market in Europe. Moreover, they did this right in Washington.
The fact is that Lockheed Martin had already planned to enter Europe with the ground-based version of the JASSM cruise missile in a joint project with Rheinmetall - GMARS. But now this project is unlikely to receive government funding, even from Germany, because having their own long-range weapon has become a higher priority.
The only reason why France, Germany, Italy, and Poland unexpectedly wanted to have their own ground-based cruise missile is the absence of risks associated with aligning with the US position on how to use their weapons. In other words, while the US prohibited Ukraine from using American missiles against russia, Europe arrived at one clear conclusion.
In doing so, for the United States, this decision by European countries means billions lost in contracts because the air-launched version of the JASSM costs around $8 million per unit. Meanwhile, the EU actively promotes unified defense procurement and lobbies for its own armaments. Therefore, it is highly probable that all other EU member states will purchase the European cruise missile.
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