UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-03-30
Slava Ukraini! Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 60 sources daily much of which ends up in the script. I will make this Draft available here for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
Tomorrow Mar. 31 is Easter Sunday and I will be taking the day off for family events. As a result there will be no Draft on that date. I will report on the events of Mar. 31 and Apr. 1 on Monday. Slava Ukraini and Happy Easter to all who celebrate.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its situation update at 06:00 on Mar. 30 stated that it was day 766 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
During the past day, 72 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 38 missile strikes, 75 air strikes, and 98 MLRS attacks across the positions of our troops and settlements. As a result of the Russian attacks, unfortunately, there are dead and wounded among the civilian population. Destruction and damage to residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line.
Ukrainian missile forces struck 2 concentrations of troops, 2 air defense systems, and 1 artillery system
Air Force Daily Report
The Ukrainian Air Force in its situation update at 06:00 stated that during the previous day it launched air strikes on 1 command post, 1 air defense system, and 10 concentrations of troops, weapons, and military equipment
On the night of Mar. 30, 2024, the enemy struck Donetsk with 4 anti-aircraft guided missiles C-300 / C-400, as well as drones from Cape Chaud (TOT Ukrainian Crimea).
A total of 12 Shahed were launched, nine of them were destroyed by the units of the mobile fire groups of the Defense Forces of Ukraine in the boundaries of Kherson, Odessa, Dnipropetrovsk and Poltava oblasts.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kup’yans’k axis: The enemy did not conduct any offensive (assault) operations in this area. Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold their positions.
Lyman axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 16 attacks near Terny (Donetsk oblast) plus Bilhorivka (Luhansk oblast)
Bakhmut axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 4 attacks near Klishchiivka and Andriivka and (Donetsk oblast).
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the Avdiivka, Novopavlivka, and Orikhiv axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Avdiivka axis: Ukrainian Defence Forces repelled 20 enemy attacks in the vicinities of settlements of Berdychi, Semenivka, Umans’ke, Tonen’ke, Pervomais’ke and Nevel’s’ke (Donetsk oblast).
Novopavlivka axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the enemy in the vicinities of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Novomykhailivka, and Vodyane (Donetsk oblast). The enemy made 25 attempts to break through the defense of Ukrainian troops in that area.
Orikhiv axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 4 attacks, northwest of Verbove (Zaporizhzhia oblast) and Staromaiors’ke (Donetsk oblast).
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Kherson axis: Ukrainian defenders continue to maintain their positions. Over the past day, the enemy carried out 3 unsuccessful assaults on the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces on the left bank of the Dnipro River.
Ukraine's Armed Forces confirm that Russians shot down their own fighter jet over Black Sea
Dmytro Pletenchuk, spokesman for Ukraine’s Navy, confirmed that the Russian military shot down one of their own Su-27 aircraft over the Black Sea near Sevastopol on 28 March.
"We confirm that this aircraft belonged to the Russian Federation and that it was destroyed by their own forces. They were on alert, on combat readiness. The human factor was at work – one of the operators was eager to get a medal and didn’t bother to find out whose plane it was."
Apparently the pilot survived.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Exports via Ukrainian sea corridor exceed results of grain initiative
Oleksandr Kubrakov, Deputy Prime Minister for Restoration and Minister of Communities, Territories and Infrastructure Development stated on Twitter that The sea corridor created by the Ukrainian Navy has provided the export of almost 33.8 million tonnes of cargo since August, exceeding the performance of the grain initiative.
"33.8 million tons of goods were exported via the Ukrainian Corridor during 7 months. This exceeds the amount exported in a year of the Grain Initiative functioning," Kubrakov said.
From the ports of Greater Odesa, 1,140 vessels were sent to 40 countries. Of the 33.8 million tonnes of cargo transported through this sea corridor, 23.1 million tonnes were the products of Ukrainian farmers.
At the same time, 33 million tonnes of agricultural products were exported during the year of the grain initiative operation.
Rolling blackouts introduced in 3 oblasts of Ukraine
The dispatch centre of Ukrenergo, Ukraine’s national energy company, announced it has implemented rolling blackouts in Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kirovohrad oblasts. This has been caused by the lack of sufficient generating capacity in the power grid.
"Ukrenergo's dispatch centre has been forced to introduce rolling blackout schedules until the evening in Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kirovohrad oblasts," the statement said.
The main reason is the lack of sufficient generating capacity in the power grid to cover consumption in certain oblasts of Ukraine as a consequence of the nighttime large-scale Russian attack on Ukrainian power plants.
Power supply restrictions also remain in place in Kharkiv Oblast and the city of Kryvyi Rih.
Zelenskyy appoints former National Security and Defence Council chief as ambassador to Moldova
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced, during his evening video address, that he had appointed Oleksii Danilov, the former secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, as ambassador to Moldova.
“Oleksii Danilov will continue his work on the diplomatic front, more specifically – I have approved his candidacy as the new Ambassador of our state to the Republic of Moldova. He discussed with me his vision for his future work for Ukraine. Moldova is an extremely important state for us – both from the point of view of security challenges in the region and our bilateral cooperation.”
Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine
Ukrainian forces shoot down Russian Kh-59 missile near Dnipro
Ukrainian forces have announced that they shot down a Russian Kh-59 guided missile in the Dnipro district of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast on the afternoon of 30 March. The missile was shot down over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast at around 14:50.
llia Yevlash, spokesperson for Ukraine's Air Force, noted that at the time, the Russians had attacked Ukraine with two missiles. The other one was an S-300 launched on the town of Izium in Kharkiv Oblast.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Russia doubles imports of nitrocellulose, which is needed to make artillery ammunition
Russia has boosted its imports of nitrocellulose, which is used to make gunpowder for artillery shells, among other things. The US, Germany and Taiwan companies are among the producers of nitrocellulose supplied to Russia over the past two years. The Wall Street Journal reports.
Russia's imports of nitrocellulose, a flammable cotton product central to the production of gunpowder and rocket fuel, increased by 70% in 2022, the first year of Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and totalled 3,039 tonnes in mid-2023. It is twice as much as in 2021.
Russia itself produces "little" nitrocellulose. After the European Union and the United States imposed sanctions on Moscow, China increased its material supply to Russia. However, according to trade data, one small company in Türkiye called Noy has been responsible for almost half of Russia's nitrocellulose imports since the start of the war. Russia buys nitrocellulose produced in the US, Germany, and Taiwan via Noy. According to corporate records, most of Noy's sales, based in Istanbul, were to Russian companies that are registered contractors of the Russian government.
The German subsidiaries of New York-based International Flavours & Fragrances sold at least 80 tonnes of nitrocellulose to Noy and then shipped the products to Russia. Taiwan's TNC Industrial produced more than 500 tonnes of nitrocellulose, which Noy shipped to Russia last year. Over the past two years, the company has purchased a similar volume of products from German producer Hagedorn-NC and shipped them to Russia.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
Scholz addressed Germans on Ukraine war
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has appealed to Germans to support Ukraine for the sake of a just peace during his Easter address. RBC Ukraine reported.
"Peace without freedom meant oppression. There could be no peace without justice. That is why we are supporting Ukraine in its fight for a just peace – for as long as necessary," said the chancellor.
During his address to Germans, he emphasized that supporting Ukraine is also important for Germany's security.
Scholz stated that peace in Europe for many decades has been maintained by adhering to the principle that borders of states cannot be changed by force. However, as the chancellor emphasized, the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has violated this principle.
Germany has become one of the countries providing assistance to Ukraine, offering military, political, and financial support. Berlin has provided several types of artillery, Leopard tanks of both older and newer modifications, air defense systems IRIS-T and Patriot, ammunition, vehicles, drones, and other types of weaponry.
Also, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has helped Ukraine in its European integration efforts. However, Scholz continues to block the transfer of long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine, although discussions on this issue are ongoing.
Polish deputy agriculture minister disrupted talks with Ukraine
Ukrainian negotiators have criticised Michał Kołodziejczak, Deputy Minister of Agriculture of Poland, for his "strange" behaviour during negotiations with Poland. Kołodziejczak himself denies all the accusations, although Polish organisations have also confirmed Ukraine’s statements. Polish media outlet Onet reported.
Representatives of the Ukrainian organisations that participated in the negotiations say that Kołodziejczak behaved inappropriately, repeatedly leaving the room, wrinkling his nose, and making a point of taking his headphones off during a speech by the Ukrainian minister.
Kołodziejczak denies most of the accusations but admits that a confrontation did occur during the meeting. He told Onet that the Ukrainians did not like the fact that "he was well-prepared for the talks".
Representatives of the Polish organisations that participated in the talks have confirmed what the Ukrainians said. One of the Polish attendees stated that during the two and a half hours of the meeting, Kołodziejczak kept coming and going from the negotiation room, checking his phone, and busying himself with anything but the conversation.
"When the negotiations were coming to an end and [Polish Agriculture] Minister [Czesław] Siekierski had left the room for a while, Michał suddenly ‘attacked’ the representatives of the Ukrainian delegation who, I must admit, were very well-prepared for this meeting. They showed us presentations on how much grain was under contract and argued that they could not now terminate contracts that were signed a year ago. They wanted the Polish side to permit the transit of these several hundreds of thousands of tonnes," a participant in the talks revealed.
It was the Ukrainians’ request for permission for the grain to be transited through Poland that triggered the Polish deputy agriculture minister.
The Polish representatives said they had talked to him after the meeting about his behaviour. He was reprimanded, and they hope it will not happen again.
NATO fighter jets intercept Russian aircraft twice over the Baltic Sea
In a sign of increasing tensions between NATO and Russia The Italian Air Force announced it had scrambled fighter jets to intercept Russian aircraft in the Baltic Sea twice in the last 24 hours.
The report says that Italian Eurofighter jets, part of the 4th Air Task Force stationed at a Polish air base in Malbork, "carried out a double interception of Russian aircraft in the Baltic Sea".
NATO's command centre in Uedem, Germany, issued an air-raid warning on the evening of 28 March and the morning of 29 March due to an unidentified aircraft detected flying over international waters in the Baltic Sea.
After the aircraft were identified as Russian, the Italian fighter jets returned to their base in Malbork, the Italian Air Force added.
Zelenskyy reveals how US reacted to Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil refineries
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed in an interview with David Ignatius in the Washington Post on Mar. 29 that the US does not approve of Ukraine’s drone strikes on oil refineries in Russia, but since Ukraine uses its own drones, no one can forbid it to strike Russian oil refineries.
However Zelenskyy was undeterred – While delivering a stark message to Congress on Thursday as Russian missiles were pounding southern Ukraine: Give us the weapons to stop the Russian attacks, or Ukraine will escalate its counterattacks on Russia’s airfields, energy facilities and other strategic targets.
The congressional delay in approving a $60 billion military aid package has been costly for Ukraine, Zelenskyy said. The military has been unable to plan future operations while legislators squabbled for nearly six months. He warned that hard-pressed Ukrainian forces might have to retreat to secure their front lines and conserve ammunition.
“If there is no U.S. support, it means that we have no air defence, no Patriot missiles, no jammers for electronic warfare, no 155-millimetre artillery rounds,” he said. “It means we will go back, retreat, step by step, in small steps.”
Zelenskyy summed up the zero-sum reality of this conflict: “If you are not taking steps forward to prepare another counteroffensive, Russia will take them. That’s what we learned in this war: If you don’t do it, Russia will do it.”
Ignatius asked Zelenskyy if U.S. officials had warned against such attacks on energy facilities inside Russia, as has been rumoured in Washington.
“The reaction of the U.S. was not positive on this,” he confirmed, but Washington couldn’t limit Ukraine’s deployment of its own home-built weapons. “We used our drones. Nobody can say to us you can’t.”
MILITARY & TECH
Will France Really Be Giving All Decommissioned Weaponry to Ukraine, Including VAB APCs, Leclerc Tanks, Mirage Fighters?
French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu announced a decision to transfer decommissioned weapons to Ukraine. Defense Express reports.
"As we reinvest significant funds in our army according to the plan amounting to 413 billion euros for the years 2024-2030, we have a lot of equipment that is still operational and will be decommissioned. Instead of throwing it away or giving it to other countries, we are giving it to the Ukrainian army," said the head of the French defence agency in an interview with Var-Matin
If these words indeed reflect a genuine commitment to support Ukraine, then it is about an extremely powerful source of weaponry.
First and foremost, there is the extensive SCORPION program launched in 2014, involving the rearmament of the French Army with Griffon and Serval armored vehicles, the Jaguar combat reconnaissance vehicles, and the modernization of Leclerc tanks to the XLR level.
Under this program, Griffon VBMR and Serval VBMR-L replace the VAB APCs. The approximate number of these armored vehicles in service in France is around 1800 units, but not all of them are combat-ready. The replacement has been ongoing for several years, and around 600 units of Griffon have been delivered.
Also there is the possibility of the transfer of more than a hundred Leclerc tanks, which are not eligible for XLR modernization and which are gradually being reduced.
Not all of the armaments involved are from the army of course. France is also continuing its process of phasing out the Mirage 2000, which is gradually being replaced by Rafale. The latest Mirage 2000 aircraft to be phased out of service will evidently be the Mirage 2000D, which will undergo RMV modernization by 2025 with the integration of MICA missiles.
Therefore, the first to be replaced should be the Mirage 2000-5. In the combat-ready category, there are 27 single-seat Mirage 2000-5 and 7 two-seat Mirage 2000B aircraft.
Grumpy here — There are of course complicating factors here, securing an adequate supply of spare parts and if the aircraft were to be forthcoming training of technicians. All of the weapons systems available are well proven designs that would of great technical benefit to the Ukrainian army as they attempt to replace aging inferior Soviet equipment.
How Ukraine can counter new Russian bombs
Russia recently unveiled a new munition - the UMPB D-30 CN bomb, most recently used to strike an apartment building in Kharkiv injuring 18 people. The UMPB D-30 SN is based on the Russian FAB-250 but has extended range a 100 Kg warhead and is rocket assisted, it can either be fired from a MLRS system or a fighter bomber like the SU-34 (from which it has an even greater range)
The Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Illia Yevlash has stated that Ukraine can counteract the new Russian munitions, but the most effective method would be to destroy the carrier of the bomb, such as an aircraft or a launching installation. RBC Ukraine reports.
"Resistance against these bombs exists. However, it's essential to target the carrier. That would be most effective in this situation," the spokesperson said.
Yevlash noted that the Russians launch guided munitions from Su-class aircraft, following numerous Russian aircraft recently being shot down, the enemy is afraid to approach closer, but the threat remains.
"To effectively counter such threats, we need to deploy more Western-style air defense systems. Unfortunately, we cannot produce them on our territory yet," Yevlash stated
That’s it for today’s Draft folks if you would like to keep up with events in Ukraine daily please consider subscribing, its free!
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