UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-03-28
Slava Ukraini! Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 60 sources daily much of which ends up in the script. I will make this Draft available here for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its situation update at 06:00 on Mar. 28 stated that it was day 764 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
During the past day, 60 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 11 missile strikes, 77 air strikes, and 141 MLRS attacks across the positions of our troops and settlements. As a result of the Russian attacks, unfortunately, there are dead and wounded among the civilian population. Destruction and damage to residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line.
Ukrainian missile forces struck 2 personnel focus areas, an air defence device, a radio-electronic combat station, 3 unmanned control points and 1 important enemy object.
Air Force Daily Report
The Ukrainian Air Force in its situation update at 06:00 stated that during the previous day it struck 10 areas of concentration of personnel, weapons and military equipment
On the night of March 28, 2024, the enemy launched a rocket-aviation strike across Ukraine with the use of 3 X-22 cruise missiles 1 anti-radiolocation missile X-31P (from the Black Sea), 1 S-300 anti-aircraft missile (Donetsk) and 28 Shahed-136/131 UAVs (Russia launches area, Kursk region (Russia), Cape Chauda (TOT Ukrainian Crimea).
Ukrainian defence forces shot down 26 Shahed UAVs in the Odessa, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhia oblasts.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kup’yans’k axis: The enemy did not conduct any offensive (assault) operations in this area. Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold their positions.
Lyman axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 5 attacks near Terny (Donetsk oblast) plus Bilhorivka (Luhansk oblast)
Bakhmut axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 4 attacks near Ivanivske and Andriivka and (Donetsk oblast).
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the Avdiivka, Novopavlivka, and Orikhiv axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Avdiivka axis: Ukrainian Defence Forces repelled 14 enemy attacks in the vicinities of settlements of Berdychi, Semenivka and Nevel’s’ke (Donetsk oblast).
Novopavlivka axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the enemy in the vicinities of Heorhiivka, Novomykhailivka (Donetsk oblast) The enemy, supported by aviation, made 27 attempts to break through the defence of Ukrainian troops in that area.
Orikhiv axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 4 attacks, near Robotyne (Zaporizhzhia oblast) and Staromaiors’ke (Donetsk oblast).
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Kherson axis: Ukrainian defenders continue to maintain their positions. Over the past day, the enemy carried out 1 unsuccessful assault on the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces on the left bank of the Dnipro River.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Kyiv convenes emergency meeting of Ukraine-NATO Council
On Mar. 28 the NATO-Ukraine Council met at the ambassadorial level. The topic of discussion was Russia's shelling of Ukrainian critical infrastructure, according to the Mission of Ukraine to NATO. The meeting was convened at the initiative of the Ukrainian side. RBC Ukraine reports.
During the meeting, Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov informed the allies about the consequences of Russia's terrorist attacks and the response measures taken by Ukraine. He also called on NATO member states to provide Ukraine with additional air and missile defence systems and the missiles for them.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Russia increases gasoline imports from Belarus as domestic supplies shrink
Russia has increased gasoline imports from neighbouring Belarus in March to tackle the risk of shortages in its domestic market because of unscheduled repairs at Russian refineries after drone attacks, four industry and trade sources said on Wednesday. Reuters reports.
Usually Russia is a net exporter of fuel and a supplier to international markets, but the disruption of Russian refining has forced oil companies to import.
Already Russia banned gasoline exports from March 1 to try to secure enough fuel for its domestic market after repeated Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries since the start of the year.
Russia normally imports very little fuel from Belarus, although it turned to it last August-to-October, when it faced fuel shortages that led to a rapid rise in gasoline prices and prompted another oil product export ban.
This year, Russia has again increased gasoline imports from Belarus, and in the first half of March they reached almost 3,000 metric tons, Reuters sources familiar with the statistics said.
Belarus generally exports its oil products via Russian Baltic ports to international markets under long-term transit agreements between the states.
Gabon became Russia's "largest supplier" of spare aircraft parts
Russian customs claim that Gabon unexpectedly rose to the top of the list of suppliers of spare parts for Russian aircraft in 2023. The Moscow Times reports.
In 2023, almost $ 2 billion worth of aircraft parts were brought into Russia from abroad, The vast majority, almost $ 1.5 billion – was allegedly shipped from Gabon by a single local company - Ter Assala Parts. It should be noted that this is more than half of Gabon’s total annual budget. This information comes from customs data of the Russian Federation, which The Moscow Times reviewed. The company indicated in Russian customs declarations is not listed in Gabon's Commercial Register, and the registration address in Libreville is a residential building. Experts believe fraud may be involved.
The non-existent Ter Assala Parts allegedly supplied Russia with Boeing and Airbus parts such as oxygen masks, washers, pipes, bolts, nuts, brackets, fuel regulators, used computers, and warning systems.
Gabon also imported 15 used engines for the Boeing 737 and Airbus A320/A321 for more than US$58 million.
Buyers of aviation spare parts in Ter Assala Parts' Russian customs declarations include LLC Association of Suppliers (US$1.2 billion), LLC Quantum (more than US$176 million), and LLC Protector (more than US$48 million).
NEWS WORLDWIDE
Prime Ministers of Poland and Ukraine signed joint statement during negotiations in Warsaw
Following the meeting of government delegations of Ukraine and Poland in Warsaw on March 28, where discussions on the border situation and trade took place, the parties signed a joint statement. The next round of such consultations is scheduled to take place next year in Kyiv, RBC Ukraine reported citing the Government Portal.
The Ukrainian delegation was led by Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal, while his Polish counterpart was Donald Tusk.
Following the meeting a joint statement was released excerpts are listed below:
On March 28, 2024, the Polish-Ukrainian Intergovernmental Consultations were held in Warsaw, upon the outcomes of which the Parties:
noted the special partnership linking the Republic of Poland and Ukraine, as well as the solidarity and centuries-old ties between the Polish and Ukrainian peoples
reaffirmed the unwavering support of the Republic of Poland for the Forces of Defence of Ukraine in repelling the illegal, unjustified and unprovoked war of aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine, which has violated the foundations of the rules-based international order
stressed the unwavering support of the Republic of Poland for the restoration of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine within its internationally recognized borders set in 1991
agreed that the Russian Federation should bear the legal consequences of its crime of aggression, whereas Russian leaders and perpetrators will be held accountable for committed international crimes including the crime of aggression and violations of the international humanitarian law;
called on the international community to further provide Ukraine with all necessary military assistance required to resist the armed aggression and to defeat Russia, urgently proceed with using frozen Russian assets for the purposes of Ukraine’s defence and reconstruction as well as to increase sanctions’ pressure on the Russian Federation
confirmed their continued efforts to put in place effective measures to block imports of agricultural products from Russia and Belarus to the EU market as a necessary tool to remove pressure on the EU agricultural markets
reaffirmed their readiness to actively cooperate in the process of reconstruction of Ukraine
confirmed that trade liberalisation measures should be shaped in such a way as to have a positive impact on the economies of the Republic of Poland and other EU Member States as well as Ukraine without destabilising their markets, and that the mechanisms jointly developed should give control over the stability of the trade, taking into account the changing security situation in Ukraine
recognized that trade should be balanced and mutually beneficial for agricultural producers in the Republic of Poland and Ukraine
Russian ambassador to Poland, who refused a summons by the Polish Foreign Ministry, leaves the country
Russian Ambassador to Poland Sergey Andreev has left the territory of Poland, Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski said. Andreev was summoned to the Foreign Ministry following a Russian missile that had landed in Poland during an attack on Ukraine. Svidomi media reports.
"Ambassador Andreev proved his culture and professionalism. From what I have heard, he has already left our territory," Sikorski said. At the same time, the Russian ambassador was not expelled from Poland, nor did he ask for his resignation.
Later, the Russian embassy issued a technical note announcing Sergey Andreev's absence from March 26 to April 4. During this time, his duties will be performed by the embassy's charge d'affaires.
Russian Ambassador to Poland Sergey Andreev did not arrive at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Monday, March 24, as requested by the ministry. Poland demanded an explanation from Russia in connection with Sunday's violation of Polish airspace by a missile.
At the time, Foreign Ministry spokesman Pawel Wronski said that a Polish note on the matter would be handed over to the Russian authorities by another means.
"The Ministry of Foreign Affairs wonders whether the Russian ambassador is following the instructions of the Foreign Ministry in Moscow and whether he is able to properly represent the interests of the Russian Federation in Warsaw," Wronski added.
German prosecutors charge Siemens staff over Crimea turbine deal
The prosecutor’s office in Germany is seeking to hold Siemens employees accountable for knowingly supplying gas turbines to Russian-occupied Crimea despite the embargo imposed after Russia annexed the peninsula in 2014, Reuters reports.
Prosecutors in Hamburg charged four Germans and one Swiss-French citizen with violating sanctions by helping export Siemens gas turbines to Crimea, the Ukrainian peninsula annexed by Russia, a prosecution spokesperson said on Wednesday.
According to the charge sheet, first reported by Wirtschaftswoche magazine, the five knew when they helped export the turbines, worth 111 million euros ($120.11 million), from Hamburg to St. Petersburg that their ultimate destination would be two power plants in Crimea.
A Siemens spokesperson said it continued to support authorities with their inquiries, as they had since they first learned of the case in 2016. One of the suspects was still with the company, the spokesperson added, and all five were contesting the charges.
Western companies are barred from selling to Crimea, whose 2014 annexation is not recognised by any major government.
The business unit in question is now Siemens Energy, which was carved out of Siemens in 2020. Siemens continues to hold a minority stake.
A total of 41 countries, including the United States, Canada, Japan, Norway, Switzerland, Australia, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom, have joined Crimean sanctions against Russia for its annexation of Crimea. In 2014 Ukraine adopted sanctions against hundreds of Russian individuals and entities, including leading companies, officials, and those involved in the occupation of Crimea. In 2021, Ukraine abolished the Crimea Free Economic Zone, prohibiting business activities and resource supply to the occupied peninsula.
MILITARY & TECH
Ukraine Apparently Can Jam Russian P-800 Oniks Missiles
A new article from Russian propaganda outlet TASS stated that the P-800 Oniks supersonic anti-ship missiles deployed by the Bastion coastal defense systems apparently received "new active homing heads that allow them to hit ground targets with high accuracy." But Defense Express reports, it is the next part section of the article that is most interesting.
The article also stated "at the same time, work is underway to ensure the invulnerability of Oniks missiles to the influence of electronic warfare systems at the disposal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine."
At first glance, it looks like one of the numerous statements from the russians about them constantly improving their Oniks missile but this time we have a few interesting points here to pay extra attention to.
To begin with, one of the Kremlin's biggest mouthpieces has basically recognized that at the moment, the P-800 Oniks missiles are not resistant to EW used by Ukrainian Defense Forces, though the exact effect, like vulnerability to spoofing or jamming, is not specified. Among other things, this detail explains how the Ukrainian managed to shoot down the Oniks missiles on multiple occasions in summer and winter 2022, without having at that time the appropriate anti-missile defence equipment, such as SAMP/T and Patriot.
Since the P-800 employs a radar homing system, which starts looking for a target at the final stage of the flight, EW could potentially suppress the guidance system as an option, so that the missile simply does not hit the target, even though it's not physically knocked down.
By admitting the need to improve the range, the russians themselves refuted their previous statement about Oniks' attack range of 800 kilometres or even higher instead of the declared 300 kilometres. This way, we can see how russian pre-invasion propaganda crumbles as war realities continue to reveal the real capabilities of their weapons.
Greece Plans to Sell Block 30 F-16s, Mirage 2000 Fighters
Greece looks poised to offload both its early-model F-16s and its French-made Mirage 2000 fighters, as part of a major overhaul of its armed forces. Among potential buyers of Greek F-16 Block 30 and Mirage 2000EG/DG aircraft could be Ukraine, reported The War Zone.
The changes were outlined by Greek Minister of Defense Nikos Dendias, and were subsequently reported by the Kathimerini daily newspaper,
"We have a cartload of different types of aircraft. We have F-4s, Mirage 2000-5s, Block 30 F-16s, Block 50 F-16s, Block 52 F-16s, Viper F-16s, and Rafales," Dendias explained.
The Mirage 2000-5 is an exceptionally capable plane and can be sold. The Block 30 F-16s need to be sold. And I think we will be able to sell the [Mirage 2000-5 and Block 30 F-16s]," Dendias added.
When it comes to F-16 Block 30 aircraft, Greece received 34 single-seat F-16C Block 30 and six two-seat F-16D Block 30 aircraft between 1988 and 1990. The exact number of aircraft of this modification in the Greek Air Force's inventory is not provided by The Military Balance 2023 handbook.
Regarding the Greek Mirage 2000 fleet, the authors indicate that Greece currently possesses approximately 25 Mirage 2000-5BG/EG aircraft, which can serve as carriers for SCALP-EG cruise missiles, which has notably been supplied to and used by Ukraine. It also has a certain number of Mirage 2000EG/DG standard aircraft, which are "geared" for air defense tasks but can also carry anti-ship Exocet missiles.
The War Zone authors suggest that among potential buyers of Greek F-16 Block 30 and Mirage 2000EG/DG aircraft could be Ukraine.
"Mirage 2000s, too, have been linked with a potential transfer to Ukraine, with proposals to transfer examples from French stocks. So far, these have come to nothing, with the F-16 emerging as the clear priority for Ukraine. That said, the availability of potentially dozens more surplus Mirage 2000s — including more advanced Mirage 2000-5 versions — could lead to a rethink and see those plans revisited,"
— The War Zone
Grumpy here – The sale of the additional F-16s to Ukraine would be a relatively straightforward deal. However the idea of Mirage 2000 sale, although it would provide Ukraine with an excellent combat aircraft would be more complicated.
In order to make the purchase feasible, Ukraine would have to negotiate with France for a not only a continuing supply of replacement parts but also the training of maintenance technicians. Something that has been underway for some time for the F-16. Nevertheless it would be very hard for Ukraine to pass up this opportunity.
Germany sends large military aid package to Ukraine
On March 28, Germany updated the list of military aid it has already handed over to Ukraine. Among other things, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will receive new drones, shells for tanks, and artillery, according to the German government.
Ukrainian soldiers received 5 Warthog all-terrain tracked vehicles as a repair and evacuation vehicle. Germany also handed over 9 Warthog all-terrain tracked vehicles as a command vehicle.
Ukrainian Armed Forces also received:
Ammunition for Leopard 2 A6;
18 thousand rounds of 155 mm ammunition;
14 Vector reconnaissance drones with spare parts;
30 RQ-35 Heidrun reconnaissance drones;
5 anti-drone jammers;
180 RF 360 field kits - drone detection systems;
6 WISENT 1 demining machines;
2 BEAVER bridge pavers with spare parts;
Bergepanzer 2 armored engineering vehicle with spare parts;
1 DACHS armored engineering vehicle;
9 mine trawls;
1 SATCOM surveillance system;
330 infrared cameras;
3 vehicles for border protection;
6 Mercedes-Benz Zetros fuel trucks;
2 thousand RGW 90 Matador grenade launchers.
The Ukrainian army also received 24,000 40-mm shells, 70 GMG grenade launchers, 3,000 camouflage nets, 2,000 ponchos (rain protection), and 2 emergency power generators.
Additionally Germany announce Ukraine will receive:
20 Marder armored personnel carriers;
1 Warthog all-terrain tracked vehicle as a command vehicle;
missiles for the Patriot air defense system;
70 infrared cameras.
Germany implements three phase plan to supply Ukraine with ammunition
Germany will transfer a batch of 10.000 artillery rounds from the Bundeswehr’s stockpiles to Ukraine in the coming days, Christian Freudinger, head of the situational centre on Ukraine at the German Defense Ministry, reported DW.
To meet the urgent need of the Ukrainian Armed Forces for artillery rounds, Germany has decided to act in three stages.
In the first stage, Ukraine will receive 10.000 rounds in the coming days.
In the medium term, Germany has decided to support the Czech initiative and cover the costs of procuring 180,000 rounds, which will be transferred to Kyiv in the second half of the current year.
For the long-term perspective, in addition to the Czech plan, Germany has signed a bilateral agreement to supply Ukraine with another 100,000 rounds starting approximately in the fourth quarter. Freudinger did not specify which country this agreement was made with.
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