UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2023-12-19
Slava Ukraini! For the past six months I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 40 sources daily much of which ends up in the Ukraine War Written Brief. While this is going through a period of transition I will make this Draft available here for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
Ukrainian troops face artillery shortages, scale back some operations
Frontline Ukrainian troops face shortages of artillery shells and have scaled back some military operations because of a shortfall of foreign assistance, a senior army general told Reuters.
Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi was speaking after Republican lawmakers held up a $60-billion U.S. aid package and Hungary blocked 50 billion euros in European Union funding for Kyiv as it battles Russia's invasion.
"There's a problem with ammunition, especially post-Soviet (shells) - that's 122 mm, 152 mm. And today these problems exist across the entire front line," he said in an interview.
Tarnavskyi said the shortage of artillery shells was a "very big problem" and the drop in foreign military aid was having an impact on the battlefield.
"The volumes that we have today are not sufficient for us today, given our needs. So, we're redistributing it. We're replanning tasks that we had set for ourselves and making them smaller because we need to provide for them," he said, without providing details.
The comments underline Kyiv's reliance on Western military aid to fight Russian troops along a 1,000-km front nearly 22 months into the biggest conflict in Europe since World War Two.
Russian forces also face ammunition problems, Tarnavskyi said, without specifying their nature.
Weary Ukrainian troops on the southeastern front have gone on the defensive in some areas but are trying to attack in others, he said.
Grumpy Analysis — Russia attempts to continue multiple assaults with no appreciable results while suffering heavy casualties
Russia continues to pursue a course of aggressive assaults across a wide front in the east of Ukraine centering on five separate sectors: Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Marinka.
In the past four days Russia has suffered more than 4000 casualties and lost more than 200 armoured vehicles for no measurable tactical results. Russia is incapable of replacing either personnel or equipment at the rate they are being expended.
Entire columns of Russian troops were destroyed before they even reached the contact line. I will discuss one particular example of this futility below in the Khortytsia section.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group is responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine.
Russian futility in Synkivka
A case in point is the village of Synkivka in the Kupyansk sector. I refer to the Euromaidan Dec.18 Frontline Report for this information.
Russia has been making claims of capturing Synkivka (a small village near the front northeast of Kupyansk) for months. About a week ago they finally reached the outskirts. They used a combination of armour and infantry to assault the village and were able to push Ukrainian defenders back enough to occupy several houses on the edge of the village.
Russia was eager to exploit this success and decided to reinforce this minor success by sending in another assault force. However due to heavy losses in the previous assault the new troops were sent in on foot. The entire force was decimated by Ukrainian artillery.
Predictably Ukraine then counter-attacked using combined arms, driving the original Russian assault group out of the village.
Finally in order to deprive future Russian assault groups of this cover Ukrainian tanks levelled the houses on the outskirts. Leaving Russia with a net gain of… nothing
The Tavria operational-strategic group is responsible for the Avdiivka, Mar’inka, Shaktars’ke, and Zaporizhzhia axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.
Nothing to report.
The Odesa operational-strategic group is responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea
Nothing to report.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Russia’s first use of Kinzhal missile in months results in missed targets and interceptions in Ukraine
The UK Ministry of Defense states in its December 19 intelligence update stated that Russia used its new Kh-47M2 Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missile (NATO reporting name: AS-24 KILLJOY) to attack a military airfield in central Ukraine last week, the first launch of the weapon since August
One of the six ‘super weapons’ President Putin announced in 2018, KILLJOY has been ear-marked to play a major role in Russia’s future military doctrine. In the Ukraine war, Russia has reserved the weapon for what it perceives as high value, well defended targets.
KILLJOY has almost certainly had a mixed combat debut. Many of its launches have likely missed their intended targets, while Ukraine has also succeeded in intercepting attacks by this supposedly ‘undefeatable’ system.
THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION / OCCUPIED BELARUS
Kremlin says it prepared ways to circumvent sanctions on diamonds in advance
On 18 December, the European Union approved the 12th package of sanctions against Russia. The import, purchase and transportation of Russian non-industrial natural and synthetic diamonds, as well as diamond jewellery, has been prohibited starting 1 January 2024.
Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the president of the Russian Federation, as reported by Russian propaganda sources. said that Moscow already knows how to circumvent the restrictions, as it prepared for this in advance.
"As for Russian diamonds, it was predicted, we were preparing for it. I doubt there are no options for circumventing these sanctions. They exist, and they will be implemented,"
— Dmitry Peskov,Russian Presidential Press Secretary
NEWS WORLDWIDE
Russia threatens Finland over defence agreement with US
On Dec. 18 Finland signed a defence agreement with the USA that would allow US troops on Finish soil. The Russian Foreign Ministry summoned the Finnish ambassador to Moscow on 19 December, where he was informed that the Russian side "would not leave unanswered" the NATO military build-up on the border with the Russian Federation.
Maria Zakharova, an official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, in connection with the approval of the agreement on defence cooperation between Finland and the United States stated that the agreement "threatens the security of the Russian Federation," so Russia will take "necessary measures to counter the aggressive decisions of Finland and its NATO allies."
She said the Finnish authorities would bear responsibility for "turning the zone of good neighbourliness in this region into a zone of possible confrontation."
I am left to wonder how much of a “good neighbour” Finland considers Russia to be, seeing that they voted to join NATO —- to help protect them from all that neighbourliness…
UK Foreign Secretary — It is important that Putin loses
UK Foreign Secretary David Cameron after talks in Paris with his French counterpart Catherine Colonna stated that France and the UK will support Ukraine in its fight against the Russian invasion "for as long as it takes", and it is important that President Vladimir Putin is defeated AFP reported
"Britain and France have been staunch supporters of Ukraine and we will continue to be for as long as it takes... I have no doubt that we can make sure Putin loses and it is essential he does lose.We must be absolutely staunch in how we back Ukraine,"
— David Cameron, UK Foreign Secretary
Both Cameron and Colonna were keen to emphasise that the UK and France remain on the same page on major international issues, including Ukraine and the Middle East, even after Brexit.
Germany to deploy troops in Lithuania to reinforce NATO flank
The German Ministry of Defense announced a significant step in NATO’s eastern defence strategy with the signing of an agreement by Defense Minister Boris Pistorius and his Lithuanian counterpart, Arvydas Anušauskas, in Vilnius on 18 December 2023.
This agreement lays the foundation for the permanent deployment of a Bundeswehr brigade in Lithuania, its first permanent troop deployment abroad since the end of World War II, with about 5,000 troops expected to be deployed in 2025.
Pistorius emphasised the deployment as a “historic” decision and a clear signal of solidarity with NATO allies aimed at deterring Russia and protecting NATO territory. This move, prompted by Russia’s war against Ukraine, represents a significant shift in Germany’s security policy.
The Brigade will comprise approximately 4,800 soldiers and 200 civilian Bundeswehr employees. They will be stationed near Vilnius and Kaunas, in Rūdninkai and Rukla.
CNN: Ukraine aid will run out at the end of the month, White House warns
A US aid package planned for delivery to Ukraine later this month will be the last one provided unless Congress authorises further assistance, the White House warned on 18 December, CNN reports.
We are still planning one more aid package to Ukraine later this month. However, when that one’s done, as the comptroller Mr. McCord made clear in his note to Congress today, we will have no more replenishment authority available to us, and we’re going to need Congress to act without delay, as we have been saying,”
— John Kirby, US National Security Council spokesman
US Senate Republicans say no Christmas deal for Ukraine
US Senate Republicans say there’s no chance of a deal before Christmas on approving the Ukraine aid and enacting new border security reforms, The Hill reports.
US Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer initially planned a vote on the package this week. However, lead Republican negotiator Sen. James Lankford told reporters on 18 December that an agreement between White House and Senate negotiators is unlikely in the near future due to unresolved issues.
For months, Democratic President Joe Biden has been pushing for the approval of a supplemental aid package, which includes $50 billion in new security funding for Ukraine in its war with Russia and $14 billion for Israel in its conflict with Hamas in Gaza.
According to The Hill, Lankford anticipates that the bipartisan negotiating group won’t unveil a framework this week either. Senate Republican Whip John Thune officially confirmed that a deal would not be reached this week.
Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell, who cautioned last week about the difficulty of passing a Ukraine and border security package before Christmas, once again slowed down the negotiations on 18 December, blaming Democrats and the White House for “showing up late” to the negotiating table.
UK to enhance Ukraine’s naval strength in decade-long security pact
The United Kingdom is set to strengthen Ukraine’s maritime capabilities in a significant 10-year security agreement, as reported by The Telegraph. The Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), to be signed soon, commits to enhancing Kyiv’s naval assets, providing financial aid, and sharing intelligence in a bid to maintain Ukraine’s resistance against Russia.
Britain will use its naval expertise to help Ukraine control the Black Sea as part of a 10-year security pact to be signed in the coming weeks.
The Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) will pledge to “keep Kyiv in the fight” against Russia by providing military support focused on naval assets, as well as financial aid and intelligence sharing.
It will also contain promises of a post-war security guarantee to ward off Moscow should it consider attacking again, including stepping up weapons deliveries and reimposing sanctions.
British officials have told their Ukrainian counterparts the country will focus on bolstering Kyiv’s maritime capabilities as part of the planned MoU, The Telegraph can disclose.
Military leaders have been impressed with Ukraine’s performance in the Black Sea, where it has forced Russia’s navy to retreat from its traditional stronghold in occupied Crimea.
Some 30 countries, as well as the European Union, are now negotiating individual, long-term security pledges for Ukraine using the framework agreed in July.
Britain is hoping to use its maritime strength and knowledge to help further build up Ukrainian naval power.
MILITARY & TECH
United24 donates armoured personnel carriers to Ukraine
UNITED24, a fundraising platform, has donated 27 surplus American made M-113 armoured personnel carriers to the Armed Forces of Ukraine through crowd funding from the public.
The armoured personnel carriers help the National Guard evacuate wounded soldiers, deliver ammunition & transport provisions to positions.
Another new Ukrainian drone reaches mass production
Ukrainian engineers from Kryvyi Rih, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, have designed and established the production of Cobra, a fixed-wing one-way attack strike drone with a range of about 300 km, Inter TV channel reported.
The Cobra “kamikaze” UAV’s body and wings utilize aircraft-grade technology, enhancing speed and cost-efficiency. While most drones commonly employ lighter materials like wood or composites, engineers achieved a notable edge with riveted steel.
Cobra can carry 15 kg of explosives up to 300 km it reportedly has a three-meter wingspan and a length of two meters, the takeoff weight is 40 kg, of which 15 kg is the payload, and the UAV is launched from a catapult.
The drone’s primary function is target destruction, facilitated by its potent engine capable of delivering ammunition over 300 kilometers. It achieves a speed of 150 km/h.
That’s it for today’s Draft folks if you would like to keep up with events in Ukraine daily please consider subscribing, its free!
Feel free to share this update with your friends. Heroyam Slava!