UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-07-03
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 60 sources daily, much of which forms the basis of the script. While the Podcast is on hiatus I will make this Draft available here both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 22:00 on July 2 stated that day 861 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.
During the past day, 136 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 1 missile strikes, 41 air strikes, 457 drone strikes and almost 3,000 artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deep into the territory of Ukraine.
Air Force Daily Report
On the morning of July 3, 2024, the enemy struck with 3 Iskander-K land-based cruise missiles, 4 Kh-59 guided air missiles and 5 Shahed-type attack UAVs.
The main direction of the attack is Dnipropetrovsk region.
The forces and means of anti-aircraft missile forces of the Air Force shot down 11 air targets:
- 1 "Iskander-K" cruise missile;
- 4 Kh-59 guided air missiles;
- 5 attack UAVs "Shahed-131/136";
- 1 Orlan-10 Orlan-10 BpLA.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kharkiv axis: The enemy conducted 6 assault actions, supported by aviation in the areas of Hlyboke and Vovchansk. The situation is under the control of Ukrainian Defense Forces.
Kupyansk axis: The enemy made 10 attempts to breach Ukrainian positions near the settlements of Synkivka and Stelmakhivka. One attack is ongoing in the Synkivka direction.
Lyman axis: Russian troops attacked Ukrainian defenders 16 times in the areas of four different settlements a day. Six clashes continue at this time. The enemy is concentrating his efforts near Hrekivka and Terny. In addition, the enemy attacked positions in the areas of Nevske and Makiivka. The situation is under control.
Siversk axis: Russian forces carried out 5 assaults in the vicinity of, Spirne, Ivano-Darivka and Vyimka. None were successful.
Kramatorsk axis: Ukrainian defenders, over the day, repelled 8 attacks in the vicinity of Chasiv Yar and Klischiivka
Toretsk axis: The situation is tense in this direction. The invaders 24 times attacked near Dy;iivka, Pivnichne, Pivdenne and Niu-York. 9 engagements are still ongoing.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk axis: The situation in this area remains tense.The enemy conducted 43 attacks against Ukrainian defences. The greatest activity of the Russian occupiers is kept from the Ocheretyne district. 31 have been repelled, 12 more continue in the vicinity of Novooleksandrívka and Yevhenívka.
Kurakhove axis: The enemy, supported by aviation, 11 times unsuccessfully attacked the positions of the Defense Forces in the vicinity of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka and Paraskoviivka
Vremika axis: There have been no significant changes in the combat environment.
Orikhiv axis: There have been no significant changes in the combat environment.
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Prydniprovsk axis: In this direction, four assault actions of the enemy on the left bank of the Dnieper were unsuccessful.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Ukraine increased electricity imports by 91% in June. Main supply from Hungary
In June, electricity imports from Poland – increased the most by 2.4 times compared to May. Ukraine imported 858,300 MWh of electricity in June, up 91% from the previous month. About it testify ExPro Electricity monitoring data. Liga.net reports.
In May record monthly import volume electricity was 448,000 MWh. In April there was also a record for electricity imports – 225,000 MWh.
Hungary continues to occupy the largest share in the import structure – 41.6%, the smallest – Moldova with 7.7%.
In June, electricity imports from Poland – increased the most by 2.4 times compared to May to more than 138,000 MWh.
An average of 28,600 MWh was imported per day. Electricity exports were absent in June.
Russia is beating at airfields. Did they really destroy the Su-27 in Mirgorod and how it threatens the F-16
On July 1, the Russians struck a ballistic missile at an airfield in Mirgorod. Propagandists immediately said that as a result of the strike, they managed to destroy two Ukrainian supersonic fighters Su-27. Ligas.net reports.
The Ukrainian Air Force has not officially commented on this. But information about it has sparked a series of discussions about Ukraine's ability to protect its military airfields and the long-awaited F-16 aircraft that are soon to be based on them.
It's premature to panic regarding F-16s – says military analyst from Defense Express Ivan Kirichevsky.
According to information widely shared in Western media, before the strike, a Russian reconnaissance drone at an airfield in Mirgorod noticed at least six Ukrainian supersonic fighters Su-27. This drone was reportedly then used to vector in a Russian Iskander rocket, which allegedly destroyed two of our planes and damaged four others.
Russian propaganda outlets released a video purporting to show damaged Ukrainian Su-27 fighters.
Former spokesman for the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces Yuri Ignat confirmed the fact of the Russian attack on the airfield. According to him, the enemy managed to inflict certain losses, but not to the extent that Russian sources claimed.
Officially, the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces are not currently commenting on this situation.
Based on the data that is publicly available, it can only be argued that a Russians "Iskander" ballistic missile struck the base, where there were Su-27 aircraft with an unknown degree of combat damage inflicted, says Kirichevsky.
Mirgorod is constantly under intense enemy attacks, adds Kirichevsky. It can be assumed that this aerodrome is not one of Ukraines main operational bases. Accordingly, the protection there is weaker than at other sites, which are used constantly.
After the attack Commander-in-Chief of the Air Force of Ukraine Mykola Oleshchuk indirectly addressed the strike with this statement:
"Once again, Ukrainian planes ‘destroyed’ by hostile propaganda, continue to carry out combat missions successfully, strike missile and bombings at the positions of the occupiers, and eliminate important military facilities in the deep rear of the enemy".
RUSSIAN WORLD
Ukrainian intelligence operation shuts down key Russian electrometallurgical plant
Following a drone attack in the early hours of July 1, the Oskol Ugarov Electrometallurgical Plant (OEMK), Russia’s sole full-cycle metallurgical enterprise, suffered significant damage, according to a source in the special services speaking to NV.
The operation was conducted jointly by the Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR) and the Foreign Intelligence Service (FISU).
The plant stopped working due to the kamikaze drones hitting two major power substations in Belgorod Oblast: Stary Oskol substation near the village of Neznamovo and Metallurgical substation near the village of Volokonovskoye, the source said. The Metallurgical substation is one of the largest power substations in Europe.
As a result of the power outage, all electric arc furnaces with solidified metal stopped working, NV’s source said. To restart them, it will be necessary to completely clean these furnaces and replace the arc elements, which may take several months.
Some workers at the plant believe that new furnaces will have to be installed. Given that OEMK was built by German specialists using German technology, it will likely be difficult to restart the plant without their participation, the source added.
The electrometallurgical plant is of exceptional importance for the military-industrial complex of the aggressor state, according to the source. The facility produces high-quality steel, including special bar quality steels (SBQ) for the automotive and mechanical engineering industries, using the blast-free direct reduction technology MIDREX and electric arc melting. The plant’s products are used by the following Russian military-industrial enterprises, among others: GAZ, UAZ, KAMAZ, EPK, SKF, Avtonormal
Russian troops use century-old weapons in attacks on Ukrainian positions
Russian forces, the so-called "second army of the world," are storming Ukrainian positions with weapons dating back to the previous century, the Ukrainian journalist Yuriy Butusov reported on Telegram on July 3.
At least one of the eliminated soldiers was not armed with the standard Kalashnikov rifle, the primary weapon of the Russian Armed Forces, but rather with a Mosin-Nagant 3-line rifle, the photos show.
"30 enemies were liquidated in the attack," Butusov said.
"Most strikingly, one of the fallen attackers wielded a Mosin-Nagant rifle, in use since 1891. Known as the 'Mosinka,' this firearm served in the Russian army during the Russian-Japanese War of 1904-1905 and both World Wars. The Russian Armed Forces are deploying weapons that truly have no modern equivalents."
Mayor of Novorossiysk reports naval drone attack
Authorities in Novorossiysk, where the bulk of the Russian Black Sea Fleet is based, said the city was attacked by unmanned boats, according to ASTRA Telegram channel, Ukrinform reports.
"There are explosions in Novorossiysk, the mayor announced the repulsion of an attack by unmanned boats," the message says.
It is noted that the mayor of Novorossiysk, Andrey Kravchenko, called for not being in the open space by the sea. He also reminded that "it is unacceptable to take and post photos/videos, means of protection of the city, the work of special and operational services".
Residents of Novorossiysk report powerful explosions on social media.
As reported, the spokesman for the Ukrainian Navy, Dmytro Pletenchuk, said that Russian troops could reload submarines at the base in Novorossiysk.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
Trump’s Plan for NATO, and Ukraine Is Emerging.
While Donald Trump has threatened to leave NATO many times, in truth, Trump would be unlikely to quit NATO outright, according to interviews with former Trump national security officials and defense experts who are likely to serve in a second Trump term. But even if he doesn’t formally leave the organization, that doesn’t mean NATO would survive a second Trump term intact. Politico reported on July 2.
Trump and his advisors imagine a scaled down US involvement in NATO with a two tired treaty that would not guarantee US involvement should a nation call on its treaty partners for assistance.
A swift resolution of the two-and-a-half-year Ukraine conflict would also likely play a key role in Trump’s plans for NATO. As part of a plan for Ukraine that has not been previously reported, the presumptive GOP nominee is mulling a deal whereby NATO commits to no further eastward expansion — specifically into Ukraine and Georgia — and negotiates with Russian President Vladimir Putin over how much Ukrainian territory Moscow can keep, according to two other Trump-aligned national security experts.
Trump himself has not publicly detailed his plans for Ukraine, but on the campaign trail he has repeatedly vowed to end the war as one of his first tasks — “before I even arrive at the Oval Office, shortly after we win the presidency,” he declared at a June 22 rally in Philadelphia. Asked on a June 21 podcast whether he was willing to take NATO expansion into Ukraine off the table, Trump replied — in remarks that went largely unreported — that promising NATO membership to Ukraine had been a “mistake” and “really why this war started.” Many in the Trump camp openly prefer a non-NATO Ukraine.
Critics say pressuring Ukraine to surrender territory would only vindicate Putin’s horrific and murderous land grab. But Trump has made it clear he has as little love for Ukraine as he does for NATO, telling House Speaker Mike Johnson during his visit to Capitol Hill in June that Ukraine is “never going to be there for us” and “we should pay OUR TROOPS more instead of sending $60b to Ukraine,” according to a tweet from Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz. Another GOP representative, Don Bacon, told reporters in recounting the same conversation that Trump was dismissive of Kyiv’s goal of driving out the Russians, which has been Biden’s unstinting policy. “He’s like, if Ukraine wins, what will be the benefit?” Bacon said.
NATO Allies Pledge $43 Billion In Military Aid For Ukraine In 2025
Media reports say NATO allies have agreed to provide 40 billion euros ($43 billion USD) in military aid to Ukraine for 2025 but failed so far to commit to a multiyear military financial package for the war-wracked country. Diplomats told Reuters and German news agency DPA that NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg had asked allies to make a multiyear $43 billion commitment ahead of a summit of the alliance next week in Washington, but member states did not back his request. However, a diplomatic source said the agreement includes a provision to reevaluate allied contributions at future NATO summits.
While the member states did not back Stoltenberg's original request for such a multi-year pledge, the pact includes a provision to re-evaluate allied contributions at future NATO summits, according to a diplomat.
Allies also decided to have two reports over the next year to establish which country supplies what to Ukraine, the diplomat said, to meet demands for more transparency over the burden sharing in the alliance.
Member states "will aim to meet this pledge through proportionate contributions", the agreement said.
This so-called Ramstein group will continue to exist as a U.S.-led political forum but NATO will take over the military working level below that co-ordinates arms deliveries and training for Ukrainian troops.
Russian propaganda fabricates French publication to falsely accuse Zelenskyy’s wife of purchasing an expensive car
Kremlin media outlets recently collectively reported on a piece of “high society” news, claiming that Olena Zelenska, the wife of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, had allegedly purchased a new Bugatti for $4.5 million. The Insider reports.
An article on the online platform smotrim.ru, owned by the state-run television broadcaster VGTRK, read:
“Volodymyr Zelensky's wife Olena has had another upgrade. This time it is not jewelry, luxury brand clothing or real estate, but one of the most expensive sports cars in the world.
Olena Zelenska bought a Bugatti Tourbillon for 4.5 million euros, according to the French portal Vérité Cachée, whose name translates as ‘Hidden Truth.’ The staff of the Bugatti car showroom in Paris showed her the new hypercar two weeks before the official presentation. Zelenska ordered the car during a trip with her husband to France for the 80th anniversary of the landing of the Soviet Union's allies in Normandy to fight Nazi Germany. Olena Zelenska appears to have beaten everyone to it, becoming the first owner of such a Bugatti. Only 250 Bugatti Tourbillon cars are planned to be produced in total. There’s only one downside — the first new hypercar will be delivered to the lucky buyer only in 2026.”
Russian publications including Gazeta.ru, Lenta.ru, Argumenty i Fakty, and Moskovsky Komsomolets reported on the alleged purchase. The website of the Moscow-based broadcaster RTVI published a note announcing the “news,” but soon deleted it.
On the surface, the Vérité Cachée site looks like a normal online media outlet. But it's only been up for a few days. The Internet Archive first recorded it on 25 June 2024. A closer look reveals some oddities, such as the fact that the title of one of the articles is in English, even though the article itself is in French.
Analysis of the text of the articles by plagiarism and AI detectors such as CudekAI, Copyleaks, and QuillBot, shows that they were AI-generated — except for the one article detailing Zelenska’s new Bugatti. It is clearly the work of a living person, but not a very literate one: the name of the Bugatti Tourbillon model was misspelled as “Turbillon.”
The article is illustrated with a photograph of a document — an apparent confirmation of a pre-order for a car in Zelenska's name. But even here there is a problem: the address of the car dealership contains a mistake in the name of the Paris suburb where it is located — Neuilly-sur-Seine is misspelled as “Neuily-sur-Seine” (with one “l” instead of two). And this is not an accidental typo, as the mistake is repeated twice.
“Vérité Cachée” is not the first fake media outlet created by Russian propagandists. The Insider has previously reported on the non-existent German newspaper “Globus Deutschland” and the allegedly Polish publication “Niezależny Dziennik Polityczny,” both of which published pro-Kremlin content.
The “Vérité Cachée” case is most reminiscent of the non-existent publication Luxembourg Herald, which in 2017 also spread false and defamatory material about the first lady of Ukraine — in that case, about Petro Poroshenko’s wife Marina.
MILITARY & TECH
US will increase the area of use of US weapons for Ukraine if Russia expands the front line
Ukraine will be allowed to fire U.S. weapons at a greater distance into Russia if the invaders try to expand the front line. Militarnyi reports.
James O’Brien, Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, stated this at a House Committee on Foreign Relations hearing.
According to him, Russian troops are losing their ability to advance due to Ukraine’s destruction of Russian facilities near the border.
“We are seeing a dramatic change in Russia’s ability to sustain its campaign against Ukraine because of the loss of facilities in the area where it is allowed to fire. At first, it was the area where Russia launched its offensive near Kharkiv. And now, as Jake Sullivan said last week, if Russia tries to expand this front, Ukraine will be allowed to reach targets at a greater distance,” O’Brien said.
Before that, the US Congress once again called for lifting all restrictions on the Armed Forces of Ukraine and expanding the use of US ATACMS long-range missiles against Russian military facilities in Russia.
“War criminal (Russian President Vladimir) Putin and his forces have calculated the exact distance to strike Ukraine from Russian territory so that Ukraine cannot retaliate. While some restrictions on Ukrainian counterattacks have been lifted, it is clearly not enough,” Republican Congressman Joe Wilson noted.
In May, the United States changed its policy on Ukraine’s strikes against Russia, but this does not apply to ATACMS missiles. This decision is aimed at disrupting the Russian offensive in the Kharkiv region.
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