UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2023-12-17
Slava Ukraini! For the past six months I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 40 sources daily much of which ends up in the Ukraine War Written Brief. While this is going through a period of transition I will make this Draft available here for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
Welt: Ukraine preparing for major offensive in 2024
German publication Welt reports that Ukraine’s military command is planning a new counteroffensive for 2024.
Welt notes that partner countries have pledged to provide Ukraine with a significant amount of armoured equipment that has not yet been utilised. Some of the equipment has not even reached Ukraine yet. This includes Leopard 1 tanks. Welt reports that while Germany and allies have committed to providing 200 of the older model tanks, Ukraine has received only 30 units so far.
Moreover, Ukraine still has access to more than 95% of all weapons systems supplied by the West, as they have not yet been used in the counteroffensive. This follows from estimates by Oryx, a Dutch open-source project that analyses data on the supply and destruction of military equipment.
Welt states that Ukraine has big plans, evidenced by a weapons wish list presented by Ukrainian leadership to the US Ukraine has requested new armaments from the United States to fend off Russian attacks, including advanced air defence systems, F-16 and F-18 Hornet fighter jets, drones, Apache and Black Hawk helicopters.
Some experts believe Ukraine Plans a shift to mobile warfare, which did not materialise during the summer counteroffensive.
Welt adds that Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Valerii Zaluzhnyi only agreed to the summer counteroffensive for political reasons. According to Welt, the commander-in-chief did not see a path to success without sufficient air support. Therefore, he replaced the armoured offensive with assaults by small infantry units.
These experts believe a rapid breakthrough was impossible without sufficient support, so Zaluzhnyi’s substitution was a prudent move. His attacks by small detachments preserved his soldiers, Western armaments, and bought crucial time.
The article drew special attention to recent Ukrainian Marine bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnipro as being an area to watch due to its proximity to Qirim.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group is responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine.
Nothing to report.
The Tavria operational-strategic group is responsible for the Avdiivka, Mar’inka, Shaktars’ke, and Zaporizhzhia axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.
Nothing to report.
The Odesa operational-strategic group is responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea
Nothing to report.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
The UK Ministry of Defence in its Dec. 17 intelligence update assessed that Russia is planning to hold sham "presidential elections" on 15-17 March 2024 in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine involving intimidation and fraud.
They note that voting in the presidential "elections" in the Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories will be neither free nor fair, as was the case with the regional elections in September 2023.
UK intelligence adds that the Russian occupying authorities almost certainly regard achieving the "right" results in these regions as a priority since they seek to lend a sense of legitimacy to the Russian invasion.
The report concludes that the Russian administration will almost certainly utilise methods including substantive electoral fraud and voter intimidation to ensure Russian President Vladimir Putin wins in the regions by a substantial margin
Kremlin's new demand for Ukrainians at Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant
Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (DIU) reported that Russian authorities have decided to force Russian citizenship on several hundred Ukrainians working at Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) by the end of the year.
According to DIU, Russia is increasing pressure on Ukrainians working at the ZNPP to obtain Russian passports and sign contracts with Rosatom [Russian state nuclear corporation]
As per the requirements of the Russians, several hundred Ukrainian workers must obtain Russian passports and sign the contracts by 31 December.
DIU notes that the Russians are selectively depriving people of access to jobs by cancelling passes, and also created a Telegram bot for anonymous denunciations among Zaporizhzhia NPP employees.
THE HOME FRONT
UK intelligence assesses cyberattack on Kyivstar
The UK Ministry of Defence in its Dec. 16 intelligence update assessed that the cyberattack on the Ukrainian mobile operator Kyivstar to be one of the most destructive operations of its kind since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion.
They pointed out that on 12 December, Kyivstar, Ukraine's largest mobile operator, which provides mobile communications and internet to more than half of the population, suffered a cyberattack. Its effects lasted for at least two days.
Among other things, users were left without mobile communications and Internet access. The cyberattack also disrupted air-raid warning systems, some banks, ATMs and credit card terminals.
"With Ukraine’s government resources and emergency services affected, this incident is likely one of the highest-impact disruptive cyber attacks on Ukrainian networks since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion."
— UK MOD intelligence update
As of Saturday, Kyivstar has fully restored voice, mobile and home internet services.
Zelenskyy speaks on the increasing effectiveness of Air Defence Systems
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in his daily address on Dec. 16 praised the effectiveness of Ukraines air defence systems supplied by its partners.
"I want to commend our air defence forces. They destroyed 30 Shahed drones last night alone – a great result. A total of 104 Shahed drones have been destroyed so far this week out of the 112 launched by Russia. Each intercepted drone means lives have been saved and infrastructure facilities left unscathed…
Missiles, including ballistic missiles, have also been downed. Patriot, NASAMS, Gepard and other systems supplied to us by our partners are showing great results. I’m grateful to everyone all over the world who is helping [Ukraine].
We are planning to continue strengthening our air defence capabilities; several agreements have already been reached to this end. During almost every meeting I hold with leaders, during almost every set of negotiations this issue – air defence – is discussed. We will have more [air defence] systems, we will be better able to protect our skies."
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine
Another Russian Deepfake Propaganda program exposed
The Ukrainian Centre for Countering Disinformation has exposed another Russian propaganda operation aimed at discrediting both the command of brigades or battalions and the military themselves.
Fake Telegram channels of Ukrainian brigades and battalions. The description of these channels state that they were ostensibly created to receive feedback on command violations and crimes.
In fact, such Telegram channels were created by Russians to spread their fakes and narratives, which aim to discredit both the command of brigades or battalions and the military themselves. Russian intelligence also monitors these channels to gather intelligence.
THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION / OCCUPIED BELARUS
Ukraine strikes important Logistic Hub in Russia
Ukrainska Pravda Frontline Report in its Dec 17 report claimed that Ukraine had used long range precision munitions most likely Storm Shadow or SCALP cruise missiles to target the strategically important Russian logistical hub in Taganrog.
Taganrog is the most important logistical hub for Russian forces in the Donetsk region because it has a direct railway connection with Donetsk and Horlivka. Local residents reported hearing multiple explosions and recently released footage that captured the arrival of 2 missiles.
Ukraine reportedly also conducted a HIMARS strike on a fuel depot in Donetsk. This is the third fuel depot Ukraine has targeted in the last week. Russian analysts called it a “defueling campaign” and started raising the alarm about the situation, calling for the improvement of the density of air defence systems in the region to support the offensive operation
By targeting Russian warehouses and logistics in Taganrog, Ukrainians limit the amount of reinforcements that Russians can send to the Avdiivka direction, while by targeting fuel depots in Donetsk, Ukrainians limit the possible use of heavy equipment that Russians already have on the front. Such campaigns are very helpful in alleviating the pressure on the front.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
Finland closes its border with Russia again
The Finnish government had decided to open two border checkpoints on the eastern border with Russia on Dec. 14 at the Vaalimaa and Niirala crossing points. Yet on the very first day, over 100 asylum seekers arrived from Russia. On Dec. 15 230 asylum seekers without proper documents arrived in Finland from Russia.
In reaction Finland completely closed the eastern border as of 20:00 on Dec. 15. Finnish broadcaster YLE reported. This decision of the Finnish government will be valid until 14 January 2024.
EU considered taking away Hungary's veto rights on issue of Ukrainian accession
Olha Stefanishyna, Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration of Ukraine, claimed that 26 EU member states were considering depriving Hungary of its right to veto had it blocked the decision to start negotiations with Ukraine.
Stefanishyna said that EU leaders had "a large number of options and alternatives" that would allow them to reach a consensus on the issues that were brought to the summit – from finances to compromises regarding the states of the Western Balkans.
"I want to say that even if yesterday’s situation had been more critical than it actually was, 26 EU member states were ready to deprive Hungary of the right to vote. This is an official procedure, it has not been resorted to even once, but it is there. I think this has also played a role,"
— Olha Stefanishyna, Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration of Ukraine
Austria lifts veto of EU sanctions against Russia after Ukraine's concession on Raiffeisen Bank
Reuters reports Austria has agreed to lift its blocking of the 12th package of EU sanctions against Russia after Ukraine removed its bank Raiffeisen from the list of international sponsors of the war. It is that the sanctions should be adopted this coming week.
Ukraine's National Agency on Corruption Prevention (NACP) has removed Raiffeisen from the list of international war sponsors on its website. The fact that this agreement was part of Vienna's compromise was confirmed by the agency's source in the EU.
Raiffeisen is one of the most important financial channels through which Russian businesses conduct transactions in dollars and euros. This allows the bank to make huge profits, from which it then finances the budget of the aggressor country with its taxes.
Ukraine's Foreign Minister praises Scholz's request to Orbán to leave during historic vote on Ukraine
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba expressed his gratitude to German Chancellor Olaf Scholz for persuading Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán not to veto the start of negotiations on Ukraine's accession to the EU during the EU summit in a statement to German publication Bild.
"What German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has done at the summit to deal with the threat of a Hungarian veto will go down in history as an act of German leadership in the interests of Europe,"
— Dmytro Kuleba, Ukrainian Foreign Minister
The official added that this week, the head of the German government had won a lot of sincere and well-deserved admiration in the hearts of Ukrainians. The minister stressed that Kyiv has many reasons to be grateful to Germany, ranging from military assistance to financial support, with political clarity on Ukraine's EU membership perhaps "the best Christmas present from Berlin"
Wirecard fraudster CEO was Russian agent for nearly a decade
A payments firm once hailed as Europe’s tech success story now stands accused of enabling Russian covert operations through nearly a decade of clandestine collaboration involving its former #2 executive, according to a report by the Wall Street Journal.
Munich-based Wirecard AG operated digital financial commerce, processing card payments and providing banking services to businesses. After meteoritic growth as an innovative online transactions pioneer, the company was valued higher than major German banks and counted Fortune 500 firms among tens of thousands of customers.
This rapid ascent crashed spectacularly in 2020 upon revelations that $2 billion in cash had vanished from Wirecard’s balance sheet. The firm collapsed into insolvency, executives were charged with fraud, and COO Jan Marsalek disappeared after being tracked to Moscow on falsified documents.
Marsalek is accused of stealing hundreds of millions of dollars from investors. Now investigators in several Western nations allege Wirecard covertly served Russian intelligence for years under Marsalek’s guidance. Western intelligence and security officials allege Marsalek enabled the Russian government to fund covert operations globally while operating as a Russian agent for nearly 10 years.
MILITARY & TECH
Ukraine starts mass production of 750 km range “kamikaze” drones
The Ukrainian military has received an initial batch of new AQ 400 Scythe long-range one-way attack drones. The manufacturer has also revealed its production capacity, which currently stands at 100 drones per month, with intentions to ramp up production in the future, according to an article in Defense Blog.
Terminal Autonomy, formerly known as One Way Aerospace, has announced the successful completion of procurement efforts designed to support the combat deployment of their AQ 400 Scythe system.
In an official statement, the company emphasised that this achievement, characterised by an initial production capacity of 100 units a month and ambitious plans to reach 500 units monthly, represents a substantial advancement in enhancing the strategic warfare capabilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
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