UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-03-23
Slava Ukraini! Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 60 sources daily much of which ends up in the script. I will make this Draft available here for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its situation update at 06:00 on Mar. 23 stated that it was day 759 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
During the past day, 69 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 88 missile strikes, 143 air strikes, and 92 MLRS attacks across the positions of our troops and settlements. As a result of the Russian attacks, unfortunately, there are dead and wounded among the civilian population. Destruction and damage to residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line.
Ukrainian missile forces struck 2 concentrations of troops, 1 air defense system, and 4 important targets
Air Force Daily Report
The Ukrainian Air Force in its situation update at 06:00 stated that during the previous day it launched air strikes on 13 concentrations of troops, weapons, and military equipment
On the night of March 23, 2024, the enemy launched four C-300 anti-aircraft guided missiles (launched from Donetsk) and 34 Shahed UAVs ( launched from the Kursk region (Russia), Cape Chauda (TOT Ukrainian Qirim).
As a result of anti-aircraft combat by mobile fire groups of the Defense Forces, anti-aircraft missile units and Air Force aviation, 31 shaheds were destroyed in the Poltava, Mykolaiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions.
Russia massing 100.000 troops for potential summer offensive
The Commander of the Ukrainian Ground Forces, Lt. Gen. Oleksandr Pavliuk, stated that Russia is forming new military groups totaling over 100.000 troops.
“It doesn’t necessarily mean it will be an offensive. Perhaps they will use them to replenish their units that are losing combat capability. But there is a probability that by the beginning of summer they may have sufficient forces to conduct corresponding offensive operations in one of the directions,” said Pavliuk.
Commenting on the current situation at the front, Pavliuk said it’s too early to claim the Russian offensive is slowing down, as fighting continues in the Lyman, Bakhmut and Avdiivka areas. Neither side has a clear advantage currently in this positional warfare phase, though Russia has more resources for now.
However he said Ukrasine is preparing for every eventuality.
“We have started this process, part of the forces and means are being withdrawn to recovery areas to allow the people to rest, recuperate, re-equip and start new operations with renewed strength,” he stated.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kup’yans’k axis: The enemy carried out 3 assaults, with air support, in the areas of the settlements of Synkivka, Tabaivka, and Berestove (Kharkiv oblast) unsuccessfully trying to improve its tactical position.
Lyman axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 7 attacks, assisted by air support, near Bilhorivka (Luhansk oblast) and Spirne (Donetsk oblast)
Bakhmut axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 5 attacks near Ivanivske, Klishchiivka and Andriivka (Donetsk oblast).
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the Avdiivka, Novopavlivka, and Orikhiv axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Avdiivka axis: Ukrainian Defence Forces repelled 10 enemy attacks in the vicinities of settlements of Berdychi, Tonen’ke, Pervomais’ke and Nevel’s’ke (Donetsk oblast).
Novopavlivka axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the enemy in the vicinities of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Novomykhailivka, Vodyane, and Urozhaine (Donetsk oblast). The enemy, supported by aviation, made 28 attempts to break through the defence of Ukrainian troops in that area.
Orikhiv axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 10 attacks near Robotyne (Zaporizhzhia oblast) south of Novodarivka and Staromaiors’ke (Donetsk oblast).
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Kherson axis: Ukrainian defenders continue to maintain their positions. Over the past day, the enemy carried out 2 unsuccessful assaults on the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces on the left bank of the Dnipro River.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Power fully restored in Odesa and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts
Ukraine’s Energy Ministry announced that Power engineers have restored the electricity supply in Odesa and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts while overcoming the aftermath of the large-scale Russian attack on 22 March. However, the Energy Ministry notes that additional restrictions may be imposed in the event of increased consumption in Odesa Oblast.
In Khmelnytskyi Oblast, all consumers have electricity, but additional restrictions are possible in the event of increased consumption.
Ukraine’s defense intel main target in Russia’s Mar. 21 missile attack on Kyiv
Nearly all the cruise and ballistic missiles launched by Russia on Kyiv in the early hours of 21 March were aimed at the facilities of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, (HUR) Ukrainska Pravda reported, citing a source in the agency.
In the early hours of 21 March, Russian forces launched two ballistic missiles and 29 cruise missiles on Kyiv, all of which were intercepted, according to the Ukrainian Air Force. Despite the success of the Ukrainian air defense forces, the attack still resulted in damage and casualties.
"The vast majority of the missiles that were fired at Kyiv on 21 March were aimed at the facilities of Defence Intelligence of Ukraine. All missiles were shot down." – HUR source
RUSSIAN WORLD
Moscow terror attack results in at least 115 dead - Moscow tries to create a Ukrainian link.
Russia said on Saturday it had arrested 11 people including four suspected gunmen in connection with a shooting rampage that killed 143 people in a concert hall near Moscow, the deadliest attack in Russia for 20 years. The Guardian reported.
Militant Islamist group Islamic State claimed responsibility for Friday's attack but there were indications that Russia was pursuing a Ukrainian link, despite emphatic denials from Ukrainian officials that Kyiv had anything to do with it.
The FSB security service said "all four terrorists" had been arrested while heading to the Ukrainian border, and that they had contacts in Ukraine. It said they were being transferred to Moscow.
Putin echoed this propaganda point when he made a statement, describing the attack on a Moscow concert hall as a "barbaric terrorist act." He vowed that “all involved in the attack would be punished.” and then stated that the alleged shooters were captured “heading towards Ukraine”
It should be noted it is a minimum of 490 kilometres from Moscow to the Ukrainian border
Ukrainian military intelligence spokesman Andriy Yusov told Reuters: "Ukraine was of course not involved in this terror attack. Ukraine is defending its sovereignty from Russian invaders, liberating its own territory and is fighting with the occupiers’ army and military targets, not civilians."
US has evidence that ISIS is behind terrorist attack near Moscow and warned Russia in advance
The United States has no doubt that ISIS was involved in the terrorist attack on a concert in the suburbs of Moscow on the evening of Mar. 22 and had warned Russia in advance of the threat of such a terrorist attack. CBS News reports.
A US official, who commented on condition of anonymity, said that the United States had intelligence that confirmed ISIS's claims of responsibility for the attack and has no reason to question this statement.
The source also said that the United States had informed Moscow in advance that it had intelligence about the alleged preparation of the attack.
CBS News noted that it had also received confirmation of this from National Security Council spokeswoman Adrienne Watson, without specifying whether it was both of the above statements or one of them.
Later, the Russian news agency TASS reported that a "source in the Russian secret services" had also confirmed that the United States had warned Moscow about the terrorist threat.
Moscow is desperately attempting to link Ukraine to the attack in some way.
Moscow concert hall shooting a provocation by Putin’s FSB – Ukrainian Intel
Ukrainian intelligence spokesman Andriy Yusov stated that the shooting in Moscow was a deliberate provocation by Putin’s regime, which the international community had warned about.
“This is a conscious provocation by Putin’s special services, about which the international community had warned. The Kremlin tyrant began his career with this and wants to end it with the same crimes against his own citizens,” Yusov said
Another Russian oil refinery attacked last night
In the early hours of Saturday, 23 March 2024, a fire erupted at the Novokuibyshevsk oil refinery in Russia’s Samara Oblast following reported explosions at the facility. Euromaidan reports.
According to Russian propaganda channels, local residents reported hearing an explosion at the Novokuibyshevsk refinery, which led to a subsequent fire. Preliminary information suggests that the refinery was targeted by a drone attack, like nearly 15 other oil refineries and oil depots earlier this year. In recent months, several oil refineries and depots across Russia have been targeted, including facilities in Krasnodar Krai, Kaluga Oblast, Ryazan, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, Oryol, Kursk, Volgograd, and Saint Petersburg.
It should be noted that Novokuibyshevsk is more that 1,200 kilometres from the Ukrainian border
British intel: Russia unable to fully protect energy facilities from attacks
The UK Ministry of Defence in its Mar. 23 Intelligence report stated that on Mar 17, a Ukrainian intelligence official reportedly stated that Ukraine had successfully struck 12 Russian oil refineries with Uncrewed Aerial Vehicles. On 15-16 March the Ukrainian media reported that three large refineries in the Samara oblast were also attacked.
Some of the furthest facilities attacked are approximately 900km from Ukraine. These strikes are imposing a financial cost on Russia, impacting the domestic fuel market. Recent strikes against refineries have likely disrupted at least 10 per cent of Russia’s refinery capacity. Major repairs could take considerable time and expense. Sanctions are highly likely increasing the time and cost of sourcing replacement equipment.
According to a Russian Energy Ministry official, there are plans to deploy Pantsir air defence systems to protect the refineries. However, given the size and scale of Russia’s energy industry, it is unlikely that Russia will be able to protect all the vulnerable facilities.
To reinforce UK Intelligence’s statement on the night of Mar. 23 Ukraine struck a russian oil refinery near Samara, more than 1200km from the Ukrainian border
NEWS WORLDWIDE
Ukraine denies FT’s report that US requested to halt strikes on Russia’s oil refineries
Ukrainian President’s Advisor Mykhailo Podoliak denied FT’s report that the US had allegedly urged Kyiv to halt attacks on Russian oil refineries, dismissing it as “fake information” and asserting Ukraine’s right to target aggressors’ war capabilities under international law.
He dismissed FT’s report, which cited three anonymous sources, as “fake information,” denying that the United States had demanded Ukraine to refrain from striking Russian oil infrastructure.
Podoliak emphasised that Ukraine would not accept dictates on how to conduct the war after two years of the full-scale invasion. He stated that under international law, Ukraine has the right to neutralise the aggressor’s war capabilities, highlighting that fuel infrastructure is a key target.
Podoliak’s statement is interestingly worded as the Financial Times article never said that the US had “demanded” anything, only that they had requested.
France, Germany allow tank manufacturer KNDS to establish branch in Ukraine
France and Germany have agreed to join forces to support Ukraine’s military efforts against Russian aggression.
Ukraine faces an ammunition shortage and needs enough ammunition in the short term, with average daily shell use by Russian troops anywhere from three to five times what Ukrainian forces can fire. Kyiv’s allies seek to step up military aid in the face of Russian advances.
Bloomberg reports the Franco-German tank manufacturer KNDS will create a unit in Ukraine to produce ammunition and spare parts for equipment sent by the two European neighbours.
“We, France and Germany, both want to help Ukraine to make the ammunition production there more self-sufficient,” German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said.
Pistorius said that France and Germany will sign a memorandum of understanding for the MGCS in Paris on 26 April, with a contract readied by the end of the year.
MILITARY & TECH
Syrskii to Reorganise Some Groups of Armed Forces of Ukraine for More Effective Fight Against russia
Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskii reported on his official Facebook page about the optimization of military organisational structures directly involved in repelling the large-scale armed aggression of the russian federation. Defense Express reports.
"First of all, it is about managerial personnel potential, its competent and rational redistribution," the Commander-in-Chief clarified.
According to Syrskii, the temporary bodies of military administration as well as areas of responsibility of force groupings have been formed and changed over ten years of war in accordance with the operational situation and current challenges.
The current organisational measures are also based on the experience of combat operations. Their main goal is to simplify and maximise the quality and efficiency of management.
He also believes that it is important to pay more attention to the rest of Ukrainian warriors, replenishment of weapons and military equipment, as well as resumption of the brigades' combat capability in general.
"One of my priorities is to establish the process of rotation of combat brigade personnel. In particular, some military units have been participating in repelling the armed aggression of the russian federation since the first days of the full-scale invasion," Syrskii noted.
The Commander-in-Chief assured that this process has already been started and will only be intensified.
Ten Ukrainian pilots complete basic F-16 training in the UK
The first ten Ukrainian pilots have graduated from intensive RAF flight training in the UK, having received basic flying, ground school, and language instruction, and will now undergo advanced French Air Force training before learning to fly F-16 fighter jets to defend Ukraine’s skies against Russian forces, according to Britain’s Defense Ministry.
According to the statement, this training is a key UK contribution to the international Air Capability Coalition, co-led by the United States, Denmark, and the Netherlands, aimed at building a modern Ukrainian air force centred around F-16s.
British Defense Secretary Grant Shapps hailed the achievement, stating the RAF-trained pilots are now closer to joining Ukraine’s fight to protect its skies from Russian forces. He emphasised the UK’s leadership role, being the first nation to supply long-range missiles to Ukraine and consistently urging allies to back the F-16 training program.
In addition to aircraft handling and navigation, the Ukrainian trainees received English lessons to assist in future coordination with NATO air forces. Having aligned curriculums with the French military, they will continue advanced instruction there prior to transitioning to the F-16 aircraft itself. This pilot cohort joins over 60,000 Ukrainians trained by Britain since Russia’s 2014 incursion into Crimea, according to the UK Defense Ministry.
It should be noted that these are not existing Ukrainian pilots being retrained to fly NATO aircraft, these are new pilots added to the Ukrainian Air Force.
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