UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-03-01
Slava Ukraini! Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 40 sources daily much of which ends up in the script. I will make this Draft available here for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its situation update at 06:00 on Mar. 1 stated that it was day 737 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
During the past day, 83 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 3 missile strikes, 91 air strikes, and 142 MLRS attacks across the positions of our troops and settlements. As a result of the Russian attacks, unfortunately, there are dead and wounded among the civilian population. Destruction and damage to residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line.
During the day of February 29, the Ukrainian Air Force launched air strikes on 10 concentrations of enemy troops.
Also, the Ukrainian Air Force destroyed 3 Su-34 fighter-bombers.
Ukrainian missile forces hit 3 concentrations of troops, weapons, and military equipment, 3 BM-21 Grad multiple launch rocket systems, 2 artillery systems, 2 command posts, 1 ammunition depot, and 1 electronic warfare station of the russian invaders.
Ukraine Sees Risk of Russia Breaking Through Defenses by Summer if military aid is not forthcoming
Bloomberg reports that Ukrainian officials are concerned that Russian advances could gain significant momentum by the summer unless their allies can increase the supply of ammunition, according to a person familiar with their analysis.
Internal assessments of the situation on the battlefield from Kyiv are growing increasingly bleak as Ukrainian forces struggle to hold off Russian attacks while rationing the number of shells they can fire.
Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said Thursday that mistakes by frontline commanders had compounded the problems facing Ukraine’s defenses around Avdiivka, which was captured by Russian forces this month. Syrskyi said he’d sent in more troops and ammunition to bolster Ukrainian positions.
Pessimism among Ukraine and its allies has been mounting for weeks as they’ve seen Russian forces seize the initiative on the frontline with vital aid from the US held up in Congress. The fall of Avdiivka and several nearby villages is fueling fears that Kyiv’s defenses may not be able to hold.
Those losses should act as a wake up call to Ukraine’s allies, a European official said.
“Ukraine can start losing the war this year,” Michael Kofman, a specialist on Russia and Ukraine at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said on the War on the Rocks podcast.
Russian President Vladimir Putin hasn’t given up his original goal of seizing major cities including the capital Kyiv and Odesa, according to Ukrainian intelligence assessments, the person said, asking for anonymity to discuss matters that aren’t public. If Russian forces reached Odesa, they would be able to shut off Ukraine’s crucial grain export routes through the Black Sea and also open up access to Moldova, where the breakaway region of Transnistria on Wednesday appealed to Moscow for political support.
“It will be difficult for us in the coming months because there are fluctuations in the US that have an impact on some countries, though the European Union showed it is capable of being a leader with its support,” Zelenskiy said.
A major offensive would still be a challenge for the Kremlin after two years of war that have depleted its forces. Russia’s efforts to take Kyiv, Kharkiv and move on Odesa in the early weeks of the war failed spectacularly.
Despite Ukraine’s shortages, Russia would need far more soldiers but also heavy tanks and vehicles to launch an offensive, Admiral Rob Bauer, NATO’s military committee chairman, said in an interview on Feb. 17. So far, Moscow hasn’t been able to ramp up production quickly enough in those areas, he said.
Ukraine’s strategy is to try to hold the front line as much as possible until the second half of the year, when it may get F-16 fighter jets and western ammunition production is due to ramp up. That would allow Kyiv to plan for another possible counteroffensive in 2025.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kup’yans’k axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 2 attacks of the enemy near the settlements Petropavlivka and Tabaivka (Kharkiv oblast)
Lyman axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 12 attacks near Terny, Yampolivka (Donetsk oblast) and Bilhorivka (Luhansk oblast)
Bakhmut axis: Ukrainian forces repelled 2 attacks near Ivanivske and Klishchiivka (Donetsk oblast)
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the Avdiivka, Mar’inka, Shaktars’ke, and Zaporizhzhia axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Avdiivka axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 25 enemy attacks near Berdychi, Orlivka,Tonen’ke, Pervomais’ke and Nevel’s’ke (Donetsk oblast).
Ukraine repels Russian attacks but situation is difficult, top general says
Ukrainian forces have pushed back Russian troops from the village of Orlivka, west of Avdiivka, but the situation on the eastern front remains difficult, Ukrainian army chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said on Thursday. Reuters reported.
Orlivka is less than 2 kilometres (1-1/2 miles) northwest of Lastochkyne, which was occupied this week by Russian forces.
Russian forces last week captured the eastern Ukrainian city of Avdiivka after a months-long assault and are pressing on other areas along the front line, Ukrainian authorities say.
Ukraine's military said this week it had withdrawn from two more villages near Avdiivka, losing more territory as support from its Western allies runs short.
"The enemy continues active offensive actions in many areas of the front line. The situation is particularly tense in the Avdiivka and Zaporizhzhia sectors," Syrskyi said on the Telegram.
He said Russian assault units were trying to break through the Ukrainian defences and capture the settlements of Tonenke, Orlivka, Semenivka, Berdychi and Krasnohorivka.
Syrskyi, who visited troops on the eastern front, said some commanders had revealed certain shortcomings in their "situational awareness and assessment of the enemy", which affected the sustainability of defence in certain areas.
"I took all measures to remedy the situation on the ground, with the allocation of additional ammunition and material resources, as well as the necessary reserves," Syrskyi said.
Mar’inka axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the occupiers in the vicinities of Krasnohorivka Heorhiivka, and Novomvahkilivka (Donetsk oblast). Troops repelled 30 attacks in that area.
Shakhtarske axis: The enemy did not conduct any offensive (assault) operations.
Orikhiv axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 1 attack near Robotyne (Zaporizhzhia oblast).
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Kherson axis: Ukrainian defenders continue to expand the bridgehead. Despite significant losses, the enemy does not abandon its attempts to dislodge Ukrainian troops from their positions. Over the past day, the enemy carried out 4 unsuccessful assaults on the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces on the left bank of the Dnipro River.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Ukraine brings back five more children from occupied territories
Oleksandr Prokudin, Head of Kherson Oblast Military Administration reported that the Save Ukraine team has been able to bring back two more girls and three boys from temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine.
"Two more girls and three boys were brought back from the temporarily occupied territories. One of them is an orphan. The children are aged from 4 to 16 years old."
It is reported that the children are now in a safe place. They are receiving help from doctors and therapists. Prokudin also thanked the Save Ukraine organisation, which helped to take the children out. He added that since the beginning of 2024, 25 children have been brought back from Kherson Oblast.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Ukraine's Defence Intelligence says Russian boat ablaze in Sea of Azov
Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (HUR) has reported that a boat belonging to the Coast Guard of Russia's FSB Border Service has caught fire in the Sea of Azov.
HUR unveiled an audio recording of a radio intercept dated 29 February which features Russian military personnel discussing the fire. The crew of the burning ship reported that the fire had engulfed the wheelhouse and that an emergency team, fire pumps and a helicopter were urgently needed.
Later, the crew reported that the number of casualties had risen to five.
The report did not specify the type of ship, noting that "information on the nature of the enemy losses is being gathered".
WORLD NEWS
EU Parliament urges Member nations to give Ukraine whatever it needs
In its 29 February resolution, the European Parliament calls on its member states to give Ukraine whatever it needs to defeat Russia, including the German Taurus missile, urging no restrictions on EU military aid to Ukraine, calls an allies to support Ukraine with at least 0.25% of their GDP annually, and demands the US House to adopt its stalled military aid promptly.
In the resolution, adopted with 451 votes in favor, 46 against, and 49 abstentions, MEPs reflect on the two years since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine that started on 24 February 2022. They emphasize that the war has significantly altered the geopolitical landscape in Europe and beyond, asserting that Ukraine’s victory is the primary goal, with serious repercussions if it fails. MEPs also note that other authoritarian regimes are closely observing the situation to gauge their own opportunities for aggressive foreign policies.
The resolution stresses the need for a legal framework to confiscate the Russian assets frozen by the EU for Ukraine’s reconstruction and victim compensation, and insists on Russia paying reparations for its substantial contribution to rebuilding Ukraine.
Poland to consider imposing ban on Russian food imports
Poland will consider banning food imports from Russia after “analyzing” the impact of Latvia’s decision, Bloomberg reported, citing Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk.
Latvia became the first EU member state to legislate restrictions on the use of agricultural products from Russia and Belarus. The ban will come into force in March and will apply to agricultural and livestock products that remain in Latvia rather than those transiting to other EU member states.
According to Bloomberg, Tusk plans to discuss the issue at a meeting with protesting farmers later on 29 February.
Poland’s farmers have continued to block truck traffic at land crossings to Ukraine. Their demonstrations have included drastic measures such as dumping grain destined for other markets from a freight train. The agricultural community in Poland is advocating for the extension of the ban to cover a wider range of goods, including fruit, eggs, and meat, to protect their interests and ensure market stability.
Biden Seeks Plan to Tap Russian Assets for Ukraine by G-7 Summit
US President Joe Biden wants the Group of Seven nations to make progress on plans to tap frozen Russian sovereign assets to help support Ukraine by the time the leaders meet in June, according to people familiar with the matter. Bloomberg reports.
G-7 officials have been discussing options to use the $280 billion of immobilized Russian Central Bank assets, including using the money as collateral to raise debt or issuing guarantees against the frozen funds, said the people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity.
The debate comes as Ukraine faces a critical shortage of artillery and other ammunition while allies struggle to source supplies at speed, and as $60 billion of economic aid remains stuck in the US Congress. Biden has also privately told allies, according to people briefed on recent talks, that if Ukraine falls, he believes the international order will be upended for at least the next five decades.
The allies all concur that the funds should remain off-limits from Russia unless it pledges to help with Ukraine’s reconstruction, but they’re at odds over whether it would be lawful to seize them outright. G-7 leaders are due to meet in Italy in June.
Lithuania pushes for EU-wide deadline to end reliance on Russian gas
The European Union should fix into law its plan to quit Russian gas by 2027, Lithuania has said, in a document seen by Reuters that EU countries' energy ministers will discuss next week. Reuters reports.
Europe's gas imports from Russia have plunged since Moscow's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, and the European Commission has suggested Europe should end its reliance on Russian fossil fuels by 2027.
But EU countries have so far avoided applying sanctions to imports of Russian gas or liquefied natural gas, on which countries including Austria and Hungary are still heavily dependent.
Canada open to sending non-combat troops to Ukraine as instructors; more countries support non-combat missions
The Toronto Star reports Canada is open to sending a limited number of military personnel to train Ukrainian troops within Ukraine, so long as such an operation took place far from the front lines of the war with Russia in a clear, noncombat role, Defence Minister Bill Blair says.
Blair said the idea was discussed earlier this week in Paris, where he attended a security summit alongside Canada’s NATO allies and fellow supporters of Ukraine.
On Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned of “tragic” consequences for countries that deploy troops to support Ukraine, including the risk of global nuclear war.
“We also have the weapons that can strike targets on their territory, and what they are now suggesting and scaring the world with, all that raises the real threat of a nuclear conflict that will mean the destruction of our civilization,” Putin told an assembly of top Russian officials, the Associated Press reported.
Grumpy here – This marks the 487th time since the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that Russia has threatened to nuke someone (I made that figure up, but it's probably an understatement)
Blair expressed openness to the Canadian military having a noncombat role where it trains Ukrainian soldiers in the country. A security agreement between Canada and Ukraine signed last weekend also states that Canada might return to conduct training activities in Ukraine "when conditions permit."
“It has to be done in a fairly careful and limited way, the possibility of delivering training,” he told the Star.
“I do not want to put Canadian Armed Forces personnel anywhere near a combat theatre that could create the perception that we are taking on any component of a combat role.”
House Republican prepares "discharge petition" on Ukraine aid
A pro-Ukraine House Republican is preparing an effort to go around House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) to get aid to Ukraine passed. Axios reports.
We have to get something done," said Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), co-chair of the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus, who is leading the push. "It's existential, it's time sensitive. Whether that's our product or somebody else's, we've just got to get the money out the door to them," he said.
Fitzpatrick told reporters he is preparing what is known as a discharge petition, which can force a House vote if it gets 218 signatures. Such a petition would therefore require support from a handful of Republicans, assuming it gets signatures from most House Democrats.
The maneuver also requires a certain amount of time – 30 days in which the House is in session – before it can be forced to the floor. Fitzpatrick said the petition will be ready for signatures by early March and signaled he expects it to garner some Republican signatures.
When asked about the depth of Republican support, he told reporters, "more than you think ... a lot of people who know it's the right thing to do."
MILITARY & TECH
French Defence Minister says France will focus on providing Ukraine with aircraft bombs
Sébastien Lecornu, Minister of Defence of France, at a meeting of the National Assembly Defence Committee stated that France will not provide Ukraine with Mirage 2000 fighter jets, instead focusing on providing the Ukrainian Armed Forces with bombs that can be adapted to Soviet-made aircraft. Zone Militarie reports.
"As for aircraft, on the whole, we are also trying to do something useful. To be as honest as possible, and I’ve never said this publicly, instead of supplying Mirage 2000 jets, of which we have very few and whose MOC [maintenance in operational condition] would present terribly complicated challenges, we preferred to start general pilot training."
Lecornu said that France did not stop there: "We chose to spend money and engineering resources on adapting A2SM (air-to-surface) bombs to the generations of Soviet-made Su-24 and MiG-29 aircraft that Ukraine already has, rather than focusing solely on the Mirage."
Lecornu noted that the 50 A2SM bombs being delivered to Ukraine every month, which are compatible with Soviet aircraft, were a game changer. And that was the most important thing. After that, there are discussions about aircraft, "but that’s never the central point on which we are expected to focus."
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