UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-04-29
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 60 sources daily, much of which forms the basis of the script. While the Podcast is on hiatus I will make this Draft available here both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its situation update at 06:00 on Apr. 29 stated that it was day 796 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
During the past day, 131 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 1 missile strikes, 82 air strikes, and 108 MLRS attacks across the positions of our troops and settlements. As a result of the Russian attacks, unfortunately, there are dead and wounded among the civilian population. Destruction and damage to residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line.
More than 120 settlements in Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, and Mykolaiv oblasts came under enemy fire.
Ukrainian missile forces struck 1 concentration of troops and 1 command posts
New US weapons to strengthen Ukraine’s military defences amid shortage in manpower, say officials
Ukraine will not likely regain a major offensive against Russian troops this year, Biden administration officials said after Congress passed a major aid package for Ukraine, according to The Washington Post.
Last week, the US approved a $60 billion [edit] bill that allowed weapons and equipment in Ukraine to counter Russia’s intensified offensives.
US officials expect the new weapons to replenish Ukraine’s military ranks and strengthen battlefield defences. However, “time is precious” and “it shouldn’t be wasted,” said one of US officials.
He added that the aid would give Ukraine a chance to better cope with continued Russian attacks “whether on the front lines or in the skies” and more effectively protect its military and civilians.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, whose office has acknowledged Ukraine’s military challenges, including lack of personnel, the need to establish fortifications across the border, and keep the nation united, characterised the long-delayed American aid as a lifeline.
Air Force Daily Report
The Ukrainian Air Force in its situation update at 06:00 stated that during the previous day they launched air strikes on 13 concentrations of enemy troops.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kup’yans’k axis: The enemy carried out 6 assaults, with air support, in the vicinity of the settlements of Berestove (Kharkiv oblast), Stel’makhivka (Luhansk oblast). unsuccessfully trying to improve its tactical position.
Lyman axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 18 attacks in the vicinities of settlements of Makiivka, Nevs’ke, Serebryans’ke forestry (Luhansk oblast), and Terny (Donetsk oblast). where the occupiers attempted to breach Ukrainian defensive lines.
Bakhmut axis: Ukrainian forces repelled 29 Russian attacks, supported by aviation, in the vicinities of Hryhorivka, Verkhn’okam’yans’ke, Vyimka, Novyi, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka and Andriivka (Donetsk oblast).
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the Avdiivka, Novopavlivka, and Orikhiv axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Avdiivka axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 55 attacks in the vicinities of settlements of Novokalynove, Keramik, Kalynove, Arkhanhel’s’ke, Ocheretyne, Sokil, Soloviove, Novopokrovs’ke, Novoselivka Persha, west of Semenivka and Umans’ke (Donetsk oblast) where the invaders, with air support, attempted to dislodge Ukrainian troops from their positions.
Novopavlivka axis: Ukrainian Defence Forces continue to hold back the enemy in the vicinities of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Vodyane, Novomykhailivka, and Urozhaine (Donetsk oblast), where the invaders, with air support, made 15 attempts to breach Ukrainian defences.
Orikhiv axis: The enemy conducted 4 attacks, with air support, on positions of Ukrainian defenders in the vicinities of Staromaiors’ke (Donetsk oblast)
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Kherson axis: Ukrainian defenders continue to maintain their positions. Over the past day, the enemy carried out 5 unsuccessful assaults on the positions of the Ukrainian Defence Forces in the vicinity of Krynky (Kherson oblast).
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Truth Hounds document Russia’s destruction of Mariupol
A new investigation by Human Rights Watch, SITU Research and Truth Hounds has documented the extensive damage and civilian casualties suffered in the Ukrainian city of Mariupol during the 2022 Russian siege.
The investigation creates a much-needed archive of Russia’s destruction of a once-blooming Ukrainian city of 500,000, as Russia is attempting to conceal the extent of the damage and death through hurried reconstruction efforts.
According to the report, thousands of civilians were killed during the fighting or died from other causes as critical infrastructure was destroyed, leaving the city without electricity, running water, heating and telecommunications.
The report, titled “Beneath the Rubble: Documenting Devastation and Loss in Mariupol,” focused on damage around a central artery of the city called Myru Avenue. Researchers analysed nearly 5,000 damaged or destroyed buildings in an area measuring roughly 14 square kilometres, about a quarter of Mariupol’s urban zone. Their investigation included creating 3D models of seven buildings to illustrate the extent of the damage.
“Before Russian forces attacked, about 540,000 people called the bustling city in southeastern Ukraine home,” the report states. “It was a place as rich in culture as it was in industry, strategically placed on the Sea of Azov.” However, by early March 2022, “Russian forces were besieging the city. As Russian and affiliated forces gained ground, attacking with tanks, mortars, heavy artillery and aircraft, families left their homes and followed stairs deep into basements, down into darkness.”
Based on satellite imagery analysis of five mass burial sites in and around Mariupol, researchers estimate that at least 10,284 people, including an unknown number of soldiers, were buried in these graves between March 2022 and February 2023. “This is the minimum number of people buried during this period and is most likely a significant underestimate of the total number of people who died,” the report notes.
Human Rights Watch and its collaborators relied on accounts from hundreds of displaced survivors and witnesses, geolocated and verified 850 photographs and videos, and conducted a remote block-by-block assessment of the extensive damage in central Mariupol. They also investigated which Russian forces and commanders may be responsible for war crimes.
THE HOME FRONT
Families of Ukrainian soldiers rally for clear demobilisation terms in Kyiv
In Kyiv, on Saturday, on the morning of 27 April 2024, the city’s Independence Square was the setting for a poignant demonstration as families of military servicemen convened to demand demobilisation and definitive terms of service.
The rally, Suspilne reports, saw roughly a hundred participants, mostly wives of the defenders, who travelled from various regions across Ukraine. The demonstration highlighted the urgent need for clear service limits, arguing that the absence of such terms severely impacts both mobilisation efforts and the morale of soldiers at the forefront of Ukraine’s defence against Russian aggression.
Among the slogans on the placards were notably, “A day at war does not equal a day in civilian life,” “Mr. President, it’s time to thank the military by setting fair service terms,” “Volunteered once, enlisted for life,” and “Without clear terms of service, there are demotivated soldiers.”
During this emotionally charged event, voices were raised not just in protest but in solemn solidarity, seeking to influence governmental policy. A key speaker, Parliament member Inna Sovsun whose husband also volunteered to serve in Ukraine’s armed forces when full-on Russia’s invasion started, addressed the crowd, emphasizing the crucial role these military personnel played in the early days of the war and the nation’s ongoing security needs. She reassured the attendees of her commitment to ensuring their calls for fair treatment and recognition are heard at the highest levels of government.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Convictions for murder among Russian soldiers, veterans has risen by 900%
The UK Ministry of Defence in their Apr. 27 Intelligence update stated that on 18 April 2024, the Mediazona website reported that 116 Russian military personnel were convicted of murder in 2023. This is nearly 900% higher than the previous year. This compares to 13 convictions in 2022 and 11 in 2021.
On 8 April 2024, the New York Times, citing Olga Romanova, head of Russia Behind Bars, found that 15,000 pardoned prisoners had returned to Russia. Russian media outlet Vertska reported that former convicts were prosecuted against in 190 criminal cases, including 20 murder or attempted murder cases in 2023. On 24 April 2024, it was reported that an ex-Wagner prisoner was sentenced by the Kirov court to 22 years for murdering and raping an elderly woman, following his discharge.
The high numbers of homicides by serving and veteran Russian soldiers are likely in part due to enduring war-related chronic poor mental health issues. These include post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), and battlefield desensitisation to violence. Alcoholism and drug use from low morale and boredom are likely contributing factors. Compounding this is the return into the general population of ex-convicts with a pre-existing propensity from criminality and extreme violence.
Massive blaze reported at key Russian military vehicle supplier Kamaz
A major fire erupted at the Kamaz truck plant in the city of Naberezhnye Chelny in Russia’s Tatarstan region on Apr. 28, according to reports from local Telegram channels.
Naberezhnye Chelny reported that the assembly shop of the factory was engulfed in flames at 6:12. Naberezhnye Chelny is home to Kamaz’s main production facilities, which are the primary supplier of automotive vehicles to the Russian military.
Kamaz is affiliated with the Russian state corporation Rostec, which owns just under 50% of the company. In 2023, Kamaz’s profits surged by 2.4 times, reaching a net profit of 12,703 billion rubles ($138 million), as per its published financial statements.
Kamaz PJSC, its CEO and Russian billionaire Sergei Kogogin, as well as nine subsidiary companies are under sanctions by the EU, Ukraine, USA, UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and Japan.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
Two British men charged with helping Russian intelligence
Two British men have been charged with helping Russian intelligence services after a suspected arson attack on a Ukraine-linked business in London. BBC reported.
Dylan Earl, 20, from Elmesthorpe in Leicestershire, and Jake Reeves, 22, from Croydon, were investigated following a fire at a warehouse in east London in March.
Three other suspects linked to the fire have been held on other charges. The investigation is being led by Met Police counter-terror officers.
Mr Earl is accused of planning to target the business, as well as attempting to recruit individuals to materially assist a foreign intelligence service, undertaking fraudulent activity and arson. Mr Reeves is accused of accepting money knowing that it was from a foreign intelligence service.
The prosecution case is that the intelligence service involved was the Wagner private military group led by Yevgeny Prigozhin before he died when his plane exploded last year.
The investigation is related to a large fire which broke out on an industrial estate on Staffa Road in Leyton in March, which the prosecution said was started using an accelerant such as petrol.
The charges do not specify who owns the businesses that were targeted, but Companies House records show they are two parcel delivery services: Oddisey and Meest UK. They are owned by Mykhaylo Prykhodko, also known as Mikhail Boikov, and his wife Jelena Boikova, who both live in London.
Nick Price, head of the CPS Special Crime and Counter Terrorism Division, said of Mr Earl: "Included in the alleged activity was involvement in the planning of an arson attack on a Ukrainian-linked commercial property in March 2024."
Germany opposes seizing Russian assets, fearing WWII-era reparations
The Wall Street Journal reports that the history of World War II is complicating Western efforts to confiscate Russian assets and use them to support Ukraine’s defence against Moscow.
Germany has emerged as a leading opponent of the US-led initiative to seize nearly $300 billion in frozen Russian central bank assets, fearing that such a move could set a precedent for new claims against Berlin related to WWII-era crimes.
According to the report, other European nations, including France, Italy, and the European Central Bank, share Germany’s concerns, worried that seizing the reserves could undermine international confidence in the euro and single-currency assets.
Japan, which faces its own reparations claims from South Korea and other neighbours, also opposes the confiscation of Russian assets, with the Japanese Foreign Ministry pledging to continue discussions with its G-7 partners.
The US and U.K. maintain that the success of the initiative is essential for Ukraine’s victory, but the reservations expressed by Germany, Japan, and other nations threaten to derail the effort. Despite the challenges, the G-7 is exploring a potential compromise that would involve using profits from the frozen assets as collateral for a bond to raise funds for Ukraine, with G-7 countries guaranteeing the debt.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen acknowledged the ongoing discussions last week, stating, “We’re looking at a series of possibilities ranging from actually seizing the assets to using them as collateral,” as reported by the Wall Street Journal.
Polish farmers terminate border blockade with Ukraine, easing tensions
After months of protests, Polish farmers have ceased their blockade of the last border crossing with Ukraine, a move welcomed by both Kyiv and Warsaw as a step towards resolving bilateral strains. Euromaidan reports.
On Apr.29, Polish farmers stopped protesting at the last blocked border crossing with Ukraine, ending a blockade that has lasted for months and worsened relations between both countries, Kyiv and Warsaw said, according to Reuters. At the same time, trucks carrying grain crops will be prohibited from entering Poland.
Ukraine’s agriculture minister, Mykola Solskyi, has hailed Poland’s efforts to lift the blockade, describing the negotiations with Warsaw and industry associations as challenging but ultimately successful.
MILITARY & TECH
Ukrainian forces dismiss AP report on Abrams tank withdrawal due to drone threats
In a recent statement, the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has labeled as false an Associated Press report suggesting that Ukraine had withdrawn its American-supplied Abrams tanks from the frontline due to threats from Russian drones.
The Brigade stated that the tanks “are performing excellently on the battlefield and we certainly have no intention of hiding from the enemy what usually makes them hide. Especially, we wouldn’t leave our infantry without such powerful fire support,” the brigade stated in its communication.
The Ukrainian military did not disclose specific operational details but urged the public and media to rely only on verified information and to seek official comments from their press service before publishing such materials.
This denial comes after the Associated Press, citing US military officials, reported on April 26th that Ukrainian forces had temporarily pulled back the Abrams tanks due to vulnerabilities to drone attacks. Prior to this, The New York Times had reported that Russian forces had disabled 5 out of 31 Abrams tanks provided to Ukraine last autumn, suggesting that drones could effectively target these tanks.
Ukraine to protect future F-16 fleet by dispersing it in underground bunkers
Ukraine is set to protect its future F-16 fleet using strategic underground bunkers and dispersal tactics, complicating Russian efforts to locate these aircraft. This approach includes significant investments in infrastructure.
Ukraine’s Air Force and Ilia Yevlash explained that Ukraine will protect F-16s using underground bunkers and other methods to safely deploy them across various runways, making detection by Russians difficult through deceptive tactics. He said it on national TV. Liga reports.
After the United States approved last fall, countries including the Netherlands, Denmark, and Romania are helping train Ukrainian F-16 pilots to counter Russia’s air superiority. Currently, twelve Ukrainian pilots are being trained in Denmark, Britain, and the US, and are expected to be combat-ready this summer. However, upon their return, only about six of the promised 45 F-16s from European allies may have been delivered, as per media reports.
Yevlash said there are a number of approaches to safely deploying F-16s in Ukraine so that they can effectively perform tasks and protect the country’s airspace.
“This is a huge investment. We are talking about underground storage facilities and bunkers. Therefore, we are now developing methods for how exactly they can be deployed,” the Air Force spokesman said.
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